Wrecking ball: could big tech firms ruin the Spotify party?

YouTube is contemplating the launch of a new music service. But how would such a service fare against established music services like Spotify, Rdio, and Pandora? All these services are referred to as “access-based music services”. They offer music listeners access to millions of songs they can listen to as much as they want for free (with advertising and only basic functionality) or for a monthly subscription fee (without advertising)...

A 'ruin of all space, shattered glass and toppling masonry': Joyce's Orientalism in the Context of 11 September 2001 and 1922

Chapters 3 and 15 of Joyce's Ulysses exhibit glimpses of three dreams, fantasies and eventual nightmares linked to the figure of 'Haroun al Raschid.' Historically speaking, the latter was a powerful Caliph of Baghdad, a medieval potentate about whom many of the most memorable of The Thousand and One Nights or The Arabian Nights' Entertainments were once and then again spun as tales of pleasure. Joyce seizes upon the figure of 'Haroun al Raschid' as a fictive measure to articulate the 'orientalist' fantasies of Stephen Dedalus and Leopold Bloom. However, this evocative figure of Near Eastern history, of fabulous narrative and the progressively converging fantasies of two modern European literary characters is riddled with paradox. Such material provides Joyce a perceptive and proleptic sense of the paradoxes and brutal historical contradictions through which Western and Eastern dreams of theocratic nationalism, ethnic zealotry, colonial rebellion and Zionism are to be played out. W. B. Yeats' poem 'The Gift of Harun al-Raschid', written in 1923, the year after the book publication of Ulysses, provides both a fitting foil and a significant socio-historical point of reference for Joyce's own figurative use of the Caliph of Baghdad.

Explicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks

We show that a simple mixing idea allows one to establish a number of explicit formulas for ruin probabilities and related quantities in collective risk models with dependence among claim sizes and among claim inter-occurrence times. Examples include compound Poisson risk models with completely monotone marginal claim size distributions that are dependent according to Archimedean survival copulas as well as renewal risk models with dependent inter-occurrence times.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the efficient evaluation of ruin probabilities for completely monotone claim size distributions

In this paper we propose a highly accurate approximation procedure for ruin probabilities in the classical collective risk model, which is based on a quadrature/rational approximation procedure proposed in [2]. For a certain class of claim size distributions (which contains the completely monotone distributions) we give a theoretical justification for the method. We also show that under weaker assumptions on the claim size distribution, the method may still perform reasonably well in some cases. This in particular provides an efficient alternative to a related method proposed in [3]. A number of numerical illustrations for the performance of this procedure is provided for both completely monotone and other types of random variables.

Properties of a risk measure derived from ruin theory

This paper studies a risk measure inherited from ruin theory and investigates some of its properties. Specifically, we consider a value-at-risk (VaR)-type risk measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin probability is less than a given level. This VaR-type risk measure turns out to be equivalent to the VaR of the maximal deficit of the ruin process in infinite time. A related Tail-VaR-type risk measure is also discussed.

Ruin problems under IBNR Dynamics

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time risk process allowing for delay in claim settlement, which introduces a certain type of dependence in the process. From martingale theory, an expression for the ultimate ruin probability is obtained, and Lundberg-type inequalities are derived. The impact of delay in claim settlement is then investigated. To this end, a convex order comparison of the aggregate claim amounts is performed with the corresponding non-delayed risk model, and numerical simulations are carried out with Belgian market data.

Factum pour dame Jeanne de Roffignac, veuve de... Mre Jean-Louis de Vassal de la Tourette... de Montviel... et Mre Louis de Roffignac de Sardiny... intimez... contre damoiselle Marguerite Ruin, femme de Charles Guyot, se disant aux droicts de Louis du Ponseau et Marie de Vernaison, qui se disoit seule... héritière de deffunte damoiselle Luce de Vernaison, légataire de deffunt Mre Paul de Sardiny, appellante d'une sentence rendue... le 12 janvier 1685... et contre les abbesse, prieure et convent de l'abbaye de Moncé, aussi appellantes...

[Factum. Sardiny, Paul de. 1685?]

A class of bivariate Erlang distributions and ruin probabilities in multivariate risk models

Nous y introduisons une nouvelle classe de distributions bivariées de type Marshall-Olkin, la distribution Erlang bivariée. La transformée de Laplace, les moments et les densités conditionnelles y sont obtenus. Les applications potentielles en assurance-vie et en finance sont prises en considération. Les estimateurs du maximum de vraisemblance des paramètres sont calculés par l'algorithme Espérance-Maximisation. Ensuite, notre projet de recherche est consacré à l'étude des processus de risque multivariés, qui peuvent être utiles dans l'étude des problèmes de la ruine des compagnies d'assurance avec des classes dépendantes. Nous appliquons les résultats de la théorie des processus de Markov déterministes par morceaux afin d'obtenir les martingales exponentielles, nécessaires pour établir des bornes supérieures calculables pour la probabilité de ruine, dont les expressions sont intraitables.

Does Facebook ruin your job Prospects?

News Report: Every Potential 2040 President Already Unelectable Due To Facebook:YouTube fake American news item (2min 39secs) in which all possible candidates are excluded because of something they show on Facebook. And Could your Facebook page ruin your job prospects? - A Guardian article that suggests that employers may be more tolerant than supposed.

Comments on the paper by professor Olof Ruin

Comenta sobre las condiciones políticas iniciales que hicieron posible la transformación de la economía y de la sociedad suecas.

Sweden and Latin America: comments on the paper by professor Olof Ruin

Señala las diferencias históricas y estructurales y llama la atención sobre las semejanzas entre el desarrollo sociopolítico de Suecia y el de América Latina.