The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Fine-scale spatial genetic correlation analyses reveal strong female philopatry within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby colony in southeast Queensland

We combine spatial data on home ranges of individuals and microsatellite markers to examine patterns of fine-scale spatial genetic structure and dispersal within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) colony at Hurdle Creek Valley, Queensland. Brush-tailed rock-wallabies were once abundant and widespread throughout the rocky terrain of southeastern Australia; however, populations are nearly extinct in the south of their range and in decline elsewhere. We use pairwise relatedness measures and a recent multilocus spatial autocorrelation analysis to test the hypotheses that in this species, within-colony dispersal is male-biased and that female philopatry results in spatial clusters of related females within the colony. We provide clear evidence for strong female philopatry and male-biased dispersal within this rock-wallaby colony. There was a strong, significant negative correlation between pairwise relatedness and geographical distance of individual females along only 800 m of cliff line. Spatial genetic autocorrelation analyses showed significant positive correlation for females in close proximity to each other and revealed a genetic neighbourhood size of only 600 m for females. Our study is the first to report on the fine-scale spatial genetic structure within a rock-wallaby colony and we provide the first robust evidence for strong female philopatry and spatial clustering of related females within this taxon. We discuss the ecological and conservation implications of our findings for rock-wallabies, as well as the importance of fine-scale spatial genetic patterns in studies of dispersal behaviour.

Factors affecting female reproductive success and the survival of pouch young in the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby, Petrogale penicillata

Knowledge of factors affecting the survival of individuals and their reproductive success is essential for threatened species management, but studies assessing these factors are lacking for many threatened rock-wallaby species. In this study we investigated the factors influencing the breeding performance of females and the survival of pouch young in a wild colony of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Individuals were trapped between October 2000 and April 2004. More than 50% of the females in the colony were breeding below their full potential and giving birth to only one offspring per year. Most females within the colony bred in synchrony, with a substantial birth peak evident during autumn. Pouch young born in autumn left the pouch during spring and were weaned during summer and autumn when forage was most abundant. Pouch young born during the autumn birth peak or in winter had a substantially higher probability of surviving through to pouch emergence than those born during spring or summer. This study provides demographic parameters that may be used in population models and for comparison with other populations, particularly those that are small and declining. To optimise reproductive success in reintroduction programs, females in good condition and with small pouch young should be released at the end of the wettest season.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Phylogenetic relationships of rock-wallabies, Petrogale (Marsupialia: Macropodidae) and their biogeographic history within Australia

The rock-wallaby genus Petrogale comprises a group of habitat-specialist macropodids endemic to Australia. Their restriction to rocky outcrops, with infrequent interpopulation dispersal, has been suggested as the cause of their recent and rapid diversification. Molecular phylogenetic relationships within and among species of Petrogale were analysed using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase c subunit 1, cytochrome b. NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2) and nuclear (omega-globin intron, breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility gene) sequence data with representatives that encompassed the morphological and chromosomal variation within the genus, including for the first time both Petrogale concinna and Petrogale purpureicollis. Four distinct lineages were identified, (1) the brachyotis group, (2) Petrogale persephone, (3) Petrogale xanthopus and (4) the lateralis-penicillata group. Three of these lineages include taxa with the ancestral karyotype (2n = 22). Paraphyletic relationships within the brachyotis group indicate the need for a focused phylogeographic study. There was support for P. purpureicollis being reinstated as a full species and P. concinna being placed within Petrogale rather than in the monotypic genus Peradorcas. Bayesian analyses of divergence times suggest that episodes of diversification commenced in the late Miocene-Pliocene and continued throughout the Pleistocene. Ancestral state reconstructions suggest that Petrogale originated in a mesic environment and dispersed into more arid environments, events that correlate with the timing of radiations in other arid zone vertebrate taxa across Australia. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reduced genetic diversity and significant genetic differentiation after translocation: Comparison of the remnant and translocated populations of bridled nailtail wallabies (Onychogalea fraenata)

Loss of genetic diversity and increased population differentiation from source populations are common problems associated with translocation programmes established from captive-bred stock or a small number of founders. The bridled nailtail wallaby is one of the most endangered macropods in Australia, having been reduced to a single remnant population in the last 100 years. A translocated population of bridled nailtail wallabies was established using animals sourced directly from the remnant population (wild-released) as well as the progeny of animals collected for a captive breeding programme (captive-bred). The aims of this study were to compare genetic diversity among released animals and their wild-born progeny to genetic diversity observed in the remnant population, and to monitor changes in genetic diversity over time as more animals were released into the population. Heterozygosity did not differ between the translocated and remnant population; however, allelic diversity was significantly reduced across all released animals and their wild-born progeny. Animals bred in captivity and their wild-born progeny were also significantly differentiated from the source population after just four generations. Wild-released animals, however, were representative of the source population and several alleles were unique to this group. Both heterozygosity and allelic diversity among translocated animals decreased over time with the additional release of captive-bred animals, as no new genetic stock was added to the population. Captive breeding programmes can provide large numbers of animals for release, but this study highlights the importance of sourcing animals directly from remnant populations in order to maintain genetic diversity and minimise genetic drift.

Restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structure in a mid-sized marsupial mammal (Petrogale penicillata)

Ecological genetic studies have demonstrated that spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the dispersal of gametes through mating behaviour, can facilitate inbreeding avoidance and strongly influence the structure of populations, particularly in highly philopatric species. Elements of breeding group dynamics, such as strong structuring and sex-biased dispersal among groups, can also minimize inbreeding and positively influence levels of genetic diversity within populations. Rock-wallabies are highly philopatric mid-sized mammals whose strong dependence on rocky terrain has resulted in series of discreet, small colonies in the landscape. Populations show no signs of inbreeding and maintain high levels of genetic diversity despite strong patterns of limited gene flow within and among colonies. We used this species to investigate the importance of mating dispersal and breeding group structure to inbreeding avoidance within a 'small' population. We examined the spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the extent of kinship within breeding groups, and the degree of relatedness among brush-tailed rock-wallaby breeding pairs within a colony in southeast Queensland. Parentage data revealed remarkably restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring for a mid-sized mammal. Breeding groups showed significant levels of female kinship with evidence of male dispersal among groups. We found no evidence for inbreeding avoidance through mate choice; however, anecdotal data suggest the importance of life history traits to inbreeding avoidance between first-degree relatives. We suggest that the restricted pattern of mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring facilitates inbreeding avoidance within colonies. These results provide insight into the population structure and maintenance of genetic diversity within colonies of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby.

Significant patterns of population genetic structure and limited gene flow in a threatened macropodid marsupial despite continuous habitat in southeast Queensland, Australia

Many endangered species worldwide are found in remnant populations, often within fragmented landscapes. However, when possible, an understanding of the natural extent of population structure and dispersal behaviour of threatened species would assist in their conservation and management. The brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata), a once abundant and widespread rock-wallaby species across southeastern Australia, has become nearly extinct across much of the southern part of its range. However, the northern part of the species' range still sustains many small colonies closely distributed across suitable habitat, providing a rare opportunity to investigate the natural population dynamics of a listed threatened species. We used 12 microsatellite markers to investigate genetic diversity, population structure and gene flow among brush-tailed rock-wallaby colonies within and among two valley regions with continuous habitat in southeast Queensland. We documented high and signifcant levels of population genetic structure between rock-wallaby colonies embedded in continuous escarpment habitat and forest. We found a strong and significant pattern of isolation-by-distance among colonies indicating restricted gene flow over a small geographic scale (< 10 km) and conclude that gene flow is more likely limited by intrinsic factors rather than environmental factors. In addition, we provide evidence that genetic diversity was significantly lower in colonies located in a more isolated valley region compared to colonies located in a valley region surrounded by continuous habitat. These findings shed light on the processes that have resulted in the endangered status of rock-wallaby species in Australia and they have strong implications for the conservation and management of both the remaining 'connected' brush-tailed rock-wallaby colonies in the northern parts of the species' range and the remnant endangered populations in the south.