Rock hyrax middens: A palaeoenvironmental archive for southern African drylands

Like many of the world's subtropical regions, southern Africa is highly sensitive to changes in the earth's climate system, but a dearth of reliable palaeoenvironmental records means that relatively little is known about how regional environments have been affected over centennial to multi-millennial timescales. To a large extent this sensitivity is a function of the position of these regions at the interface between temperate and tropical circulation systems. The resulting seasonality and irregularity of rainfall have limited the development of suitable archives, such as lakes and wetlands, for the preservation of palaeoenvironmental proxies.

This paper reviews and evaluates the value of rock hyrax middens as novel palaeoenvironmental archives in southern Africa. Considered are (1) the contemporary taxonomy, distribution and ecology of hyraxes, (2) the mechanisms of hyrax midden development, their physical and chemical structure, rates of accumulation and age; and (3) the palaeoenvironmental proxies preserved within hyrax middens, including fossil pollen, stable isotopes and biomarkers. The interpretive constraints and opportunities offered by these various midden characteristics are assessed with a view to demonstrating the potential of these deposits, widespread as they are through arid and semi-arid southern Africa, in providing a more detailed and chronologically resolved view of late Quaternary palaeoenvironments across the subcontinent. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A record of rapid Holocene climate change preserved in hyrax middens from southwestern Africa

The discovery of sensitive paleoenvironmental proxies contained within fossilized rock hyrax middens from the margin of the central Namib Desert, Africa, is providing unprecedented insight into the region's environmental history. High-resolution stable carbon and nitrogen isotope records spanning 0-11,700 cal (calibrated) yr B. P. indicate phases of relatively humid conditions from 8700-7500, 6900-6700, 5600-4900, and 4200-3500 cal yr B. P., with a period of marked aridity occurring from 3500 until ca. 300 cal yr B. P. Transitions between these phases appear to have occurred very rapidly, often within <200 years. Of particular importance are: (1) the observed relationship between regional aridification and the decline in Northern Hemisphere insolation across the Holocene, and (2) the significance of suborbital scale variations in climate that covary strongly with fluctuations in solar forcing. Together, these elements call for a fundamental reexamination of the role of orbital forcing on tropical African systems, and a reconsideration of what factors drive climate change in the region. The quality and resolution of these data far surpass any other evidence available from the region, and the continued development of this unique archive promises to revolutionize paleoenvironmental studies in southern Africa.

Evidence for progressive Holocene aridification in southern Africa recorded in Namibian hyrax middens: Implications for African Monsoon dynamics and the

Presented here are stable nitrogen isotope data from a rock hyrax (Procavia capensis) middens from northwestern Namibia that record a series of rapid aridification events beginning at ca. 3800 cal yr BP, and which mark a progressive decrease in regional humidity across the Holocene. Strong correlations exist between this record and other terrestrial and marine archives from southern Africa, indicating that the observed pattern of climate change is regionally coherent. Combined, these data indicate hemispheric synchrony in tropical African climate change during the Holocene, with similar trends characterising the termination of the 'African Humid Period' (AHP) in both the northern and southern tropics. These findings run counter to the widely accepted model of direct low-latitude insolation forcing, which requires an antiphase relationship to exist between the hemispheres. The combined dataset highlights: 1) the importance of forcing mechanisms influencing the high northern latitudes in effecting low-latitude climate change in Africa, and 2) the potential importance of solar forcing and variations in the Earth's geomagnetic shield in determining both long-term and rapid centennial-scale climate changes, identifying a possible mechanism for the variations marking the AHP termination in both the southern and northern tropics. (C) 2010 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Late glacial interhemispheric climate dynamics revealed in South African hyrax middens

Our ability to identify the timing and extent of past major climate fluctuations is central to understanding changes in the global climate system. Of the events that have occurred in recent geological time, the Younger Dryas (YD, 13-11.5 ka), an abrupt return to near-glacial conditions during the last glacial-interglacial transition (ca. 18-11.5 ka), is one of the most widely reported. While this event is apparent throughout the Northern Hemisphere (Peteet, 1995), evidence for its occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere remains equivocal due to a lack of well-dated terrestrial records. Here we report high-resolution stable carbon and nitrogen isotope records obtained from a rock hyrax midden, revealing the first unequivocal terrestrial manifestation of the YD from the southern African subtropics. These results provide key evidence for the relative influence of the YD, and suggest that a subtropical-temperate transition zone existed along the oceanic Subtropical Front (similar to 41 degrees S) across the Southern Hemisphere, with the Northern Hemisphere exerting a strong influence on all but the higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere after the Heinrich Stadial 1 (15 ka).

A high resolution 15,600-year pollen and microcharcoal record from the Cederberg Mountains, South Africa

The Cederberg Mountains (Western Cape Province, South Africa) are located within the Fynbos Biome, which exhibits some of the highest levels of species richness and endemism in the world. The region's post-glacial vegetation history, however, remains largely unknown. Presented here are high resolution pollen and microcharcoal records spanning the last 15,600 years obtained from the De Rif rock hyrax midden from the Driehoek Valley of the central Cederberg. In this region, previous pollen studies have shown muted variability in vegetation community composition during periods of globally marked climatic variability (e.g. the last glacial-interglacial transition). In our record, however, significant changes in vegetation composition are apparent. Most notably, they indicate a shift from ericaceous/restioid fynbos (present from 15,600 to 13,300 cal yr BP) to a brief, but prominent, development of proteoid fynbos at the beginning of the Holocene around 11,200 cal yr BP. This vegetation shift is associated with increased moisture at the site, and coincides with reduced fire frequency as indicated by the microcharcoal record. At 10,400 cal yr BP, there is a marked reduction in Protea-type pollen, which is replaced by thicket, characterised by Dodonaea, which became the dominant arboreal pollen type. This shift was likely the result of a long relatively fire-free period coupled with warmer and wetter climates spanning much of the early Holocene. A brief but marked decrease in water availability around 8500-8000 cal yr BP resulted in the strong decrease of Dodonaea pollen. The vegetation of the mid- to late Holocene is characterised by the increased occurrence of Asteraceae and succulent taxa, suggesting substantially drier conditions. These data give unprecedented insight into the vegetation dynamics across a period of substantial, rapid climate change, and while they confirm the presence of fynbos elements throughout the last 15,600 years, the results highlight significant fluctuations in the vegetation that were triggered by changes in both climate and fire regimes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

50,000-years of vegetation and climate change in the southern Namib Desert, Pella, South Africa

This paper presents the first continuous pollen record from the southern Namib Desert spanning the last 50,000 years. Obtained from rock hyrax middens found near the town of Pella, South Africa, these data are used to reconstruct vegetation change and quantitative estimates of temperature and aridity. Results indicate that the last glacial period was characterised by increased water availability at the site relative to the Holocene. Changes in temperature and potential evapotranspiration appear to have played a significant role in determining the hydrologic balance. The record can be considered in two sections: 1) the last glacial period, when low temperatures favoured the development of more mesic Nama-Karoo vegetation at the site, with periods of increased humidity concurrent with increased coastal upwelling, both responding to lower global/regional temperatures; and 2) the Holocene, during which time high temperatures and potential evapotranspiration resulted in increased aridity and an expansion of the Desert Biome. During this latter
period, increases in upwelling intensity created drier conditions at the site.
Considered in the context of discussions of forcing mechanisms of regional climate change and environmental dynamics, the results from Pella stand in clear contrast with many inferences of terrestrial environmental change derived from regional marine records. Observations of a strong precessional signal and interpretations of increased humidity during phases of high local summer insolation in the marine records are not consistent with the data from Pella. Similarly, while high percentages of Restionaceae pollen has been observed in marine sediments during the last glacial period, they do not exceed 1% of the assemblage from Pella, indicating that no significant expansion of the Fynbos Biome has occurred during the last 50,000 years. These findings pose interesting questions regarding the nature of environmental change in southwestern Africa, and the significance of the diverse records that have been obtained from the region.

Evolving southwest African response to abrupt deglacial North Atlantic climate change events

Climate change during the last deglaciation was strongly influenced by the „bipolar seesaw‟, producing antiphase climate responses between the North and South Atlantic. However, mounting evidence demands refinements of this model, with the occurrence of abrupt events in southern low to mid latitudes occurring in-phase with North Atlantic climate. Improved constraints on the north-south phasing and spatial extent of these events are therefore critical to
understanding the mechanisms that propagate abrupt events within the climate system. We present a 19,400 year multi-proxy record of climate change obtained from a rock hyrax midden in southernmost Africa. Arid anomalies in phase with the Younger Dryas and 8.2 ka events are apparent, indicating a clear shift in the influence of the bipolar seesaw, which diminished as the Earth warmed, and was succeeded after ~14.6 ka by the emergence of a dominant interhemispheric atmospheric teleconnection.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.