A distribuição de riscos em concessões florestais: uma análise econômico-jurídica dos riscos recorrentes do inventário florestal amostral

A Lei 11.284/2006 é um importante marco legal da atividade de gestão florestal do Brasil. O manejo florestal sustentável de florestas públicas, até então exercido exclusivamente pelo Estado, passou a ser passível de concessão com o advento dessa Lei. A chamada “concessão florestal” se insere, portanto, na nova orientação político-econômica brasileira de “desestatização”, privilegiando o princípio da eficiência. Como resultado, a atividade de exploração sustentável de produtos florestais passa a ser transferida pelo Estado, por intermédio do Serviço Florestal Brasileiro, à iniciativa privada. Para o sucesso de uma concessão florestal, os licitantes interessados precisam de uma estimativa da capacidade produtiva da “Unidade de Manejo Florestal”. O estudo disponibilizado pelo Serviço Florestal Brasileiro para fazer essa estimativa é o inventário florestal que, resumidamente, tem a importante missão de antecipar às características vegetais de área que será objeto da concessão. E os resultados desse estudo são a principal fonte de informação para que o licitante calcule o valor que irá ofertar ao Poder Concedente. Ocorre que, por questões técnico-metodológicas que fogem ao conhecimento jurídico, os estudos de inventário florestal estão sujeitos a erros de grande escala, retratando, de maneira ilusória, a realidade da vegetação que compõe área que será concedida. Isto é um risco intrínseco à atividade de exploração sustentável de produtos florestais. Diante desse contexto, caberia ao Serviço Florestal Brasileiro administrar o risco do inventário florestal da maneira mais eficiente possível. Entretanto, não é isso que vem ocorrendo nos contratos de concessão florestal. Sobre a distribuição de riscos em contratos de concessão, a doutrina especializada no tema oferece critérios que, quando seguidos, possibilitam uma alocação dos riscos peculiares a cada atividade à parte que melhor tem condições de geri-los. Esses critérios aumentam a eficiência da concessão. Contudo, os contratos de concessão florestal até hoje celebrados não vêm considerando esses importantes critérios para uma eficiente distribuição de riscos. Como consequência, o risco do inventário florestal é, igualmente a outros inúmeros riscos, negligenciado por esses contratos, aumentando-se a ineficiência dos contratos de concessão. Diante desse panorama, os licitantes interessados na concessão adotam duas posturas distintas, ambas igualmente rejeitáveis: a postura do Licitante Conservador e a postura do Licitante Irresponsável. Esses perfis de licitantes geram, respectivamente, ineficiência à concessão e, caso o erro do inventário florestal efetivamente ocorra, a possibilidade de inviabilidade da concessão. Como resposta a isso – que é exatamente o “problema” que pretendo resolver –, proponho uma solução para melhor administrar o risco do inventário florestal. Essa solução, inspirada em uma ideia utilizada na minuta do contrato de concessão da Linha 4 do Metrô de São Paulo, e baseando-se nos critérios oferecidos pela doutrina para uma distribuição eficiente dos riscos, propõe algo novo: a fim de tornar a os contratos de concessão florestal mais eficientes, sugere-se que o risco do inventário florestal deve ser alocado na Administração Pública, e, caso o evento indesejável efetivamente ocorra (erro do inventário florestal), deve-se, por meio do reequilíbrio econômico-financeiro do contrato, ajustar o valor a ser pago pelo concessionário ao Poder Concedente. Como consequência dessa previsão contratual, as propostas dos licitantes serão mais eficientes, permitindo-se alcançar o objetivo primordial da Lei 11.284/2006: aumento da eficiência da exploração florestal sustentável e preservação do meio ambiente e dos recursos florestais.

Distribuição da calda herbicida por pontas de pulverização agrícola utilizadas em áreas de reflorestamento com eucalipto

O trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a distribuição de calda por pontas de pulverização hidráulicas para a aplicação de herbicidas em pré-emergência das plantas daninhas, em função do espaçamento na barra utilizada em áreas de reflorestamento com eucalipto. O experimento foi realizado no Laboratório de Ciência das Plantas Daninhas do Departamento de Fitossanidade da UNESP, Câmpus de Jaboticabal. Foram utilizados os modelos com indução de ar AIUB 025, AI 110025, TTI 110015 e DB 12002, considerando o espaçamento de 0,8; 1,0; 1,2 e 1,5 m entre eles. A avaliação da distribuição da calda pulverizada foi realizada em mesa de deposição. Pulverizou-se água com 0,1% do adjuvante não iônico alquilfenol. Os valores observados foram utilizados para a obtenção das curvas de deposição e do coeficiente de variação. Para a sobreposição de dois exemplares de pontas, conclui-se que o modelo AIUB 025 possui menores coeficientes de variação, resultando em melhores características operacionais em relação à AI 110025, TTI 110015 e DB 12002. Para a utilização de três exemplares de pontas, seguindo somente o critério da distribuição da calda, a melhor combinação foi entre AIUB 025 e DB 12002, como intercalar. A utilização da ponta intercalar aumentou significativamente o consumo de calda.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Evaluación de la distribución de riesgos en los distintos modelos de asociación público-privada para la provisión de infraestructura carretera en México

México es de los pocos países en el mundo que ha realizado dos grandes programas para la construcción de autopistas en colaboración con el sector privado. El primero, fue realizado entre 1989 y 1994, con resultados adversos por el mal diseño del esquema de concesiones; y, el segundo con mejores resultados, en operación desde 2003 mediante nuevos modelos de asociación público-privada (APP). El objetivo de la presente investigación es estudiar los modelos de asociación público-privada empleados en México para la provisión de infraestructura carretera, realizando el análisis y la evaluación de la distribución de riesgos entre el sector público y privado en cada uno de los modelos con el propósito de establecer una propuesta de reasignación de riesgos para disminuir el costo global y la incertidumbre de los proyectos. En la primera parte se describe el estado actual del conocimiento de las asociaciones público-privadas para desarrollar proyectos de infraestructura, incluyendo los antecedentes, la definición y las tipologías de los esquemas APP, así como la práctica internacional de programas como el modelo británico Private Finance Initiative (PFI), resultados de proyectos en la Unión Europea y programas APP en otros países. También, se destaca la participación del sector privado en el financiamiento de la infraestructura del transporte de México en la década de 1990. En los capítulos centrales se aborda el estudio de los modelos APP que se han utilizado en el país en la construcción de la red de carreteras de alta capacidad. Se presentan las características y los resultados del programa de autopistas 1989-94, así como el rescate financiero y las medidas de reestructuración de los proyectos concesionados, aspectos que obligaron a las autoridades mexicanas a cambiar la normatividad para la aprobación de los proyectos según su rentabilidad, modificar la legislación de caminos y diseñar nuevos esquemas de colaboración entre el gobierno y el sector privado. Los nuevos modelos APP vigentes desde 2003 son: nuevo modelo de concesiones para desarrollar autopistas de peaje, modelo de proyectos de prestación de servicios (peaje sombra) para modernizar carreteras existentes y modelo de aprovechamiento de activos para concesionar autopistas de peaje en operación a cambio de un pago. De estos modelos se realizaron estudios de caso en los que se determinan medidas de desempeño operativo (niveles de tráfico, costos y plazos de construcción) y rentabilidad financiera (tasa interna de retorno y valor presente neto). En la última parte se efectúa la identificación, análisis y evaluación de los riesgos que afectaron los costos, el tiempo de ejecución y la rentabilidad de los proyectos de ambos programas. Entre los factores de riesgo analizados se encontró que los más importantes fueron: las condiciones macroeconómicas del país (inflación, producto interno bruto, tipo de cambio y tasa de interés), deficiencias en la planificación de los proyectos (diseño, derecho de vía, tarifas, permisos y estimación del tránsito) y aportaciones públicas en forma de obra. Mexico is one of the few countries in the world that has developed two major programs for highway construction in collaboration with the private sector. The first one was carried out between 1989 and 1994 with adverse outcomes due to the wrong design of concession schemes; and, the second one, in operation since 2003, through new public-private partnership models (PPPs). The objective of this research is to study public-private partnership models used in Mexico for road infrastructure provision, performing the analysis and evaluation of risk’s distribution between the public and the private sector in each model in order to draw up a proposal for risk’s allocation to reduce the total cost and the uncertainty of projects. The first part describes the current state of knowledge in public-private partnership to develop infrastructure projects, including the history, definition and types of PPP models, as well as international practice of programs such as the British Private Finance Initiative (PFI) model, results in the European Union and PPP programs in other countries. Also, it stands out the private sector participation in financing of Mexico’s transport infrastructure in 1990s. The next chapters present the study of public-private partnerships models that have been used in the country in the construction of the high capacity road network. Characteristics and outcomes of the highway program 1989-94 are presented, as well as the financial bailout and restructuring measures of the concession projects, aspects that forced the Mexican authorities to change projects regulations, improve road’s legislation and design new schemes of cooperation between the Government and the private sector. The new PPP models since 2003 are: concession model to develop toll highways, private service contracts model (shadow toll) to modernize existing roads and highway assets model for the concession of toll roads in operation in exchange for a payment. These models were analyzed using case studies in which measures of operational performance (levels of traffic, costs and construction schedules) and financial profitability (internal rate of return and net present value) are determined. In the last part, the analysis and assessment of risks that affect costs, execution time and profitability of the projects are carried out, for both programs. Among the risk factors analyzed, the following ones were found to be the most important: country macroeconomic conditions (inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate and interest rate), deficiencies in projects planning (design, right of way, tolls, permits and traffic estimation) and public contributions in the form of construction works.

Gender and health inequalities: intersections with other relevant axes of oppression

The risk of disease, disability, and mortality as well as access to health services are unfairly distributed among the population, with certain groups bearing an unequally larger burden of ill health and poorer access to care due to gender, sexual identity/orientation, ethnic background, or class. According to the WHO Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH), these health inequalities emanate from socioeconomic and political factors (governance, cultural values, macroeconomic policies), which generate a set of socioeconomic positions in society according to which populations are stratified based on gender, ethnicity, education, income, or other factors. These societal inequalities influence people’s material and psychosocial circumstances as well as behavioral and biological factors, which in turn impact on health inequalities. Tackling gender, race/ethnic, and socioeconomic inequalities in society is thus recognized as the most powerful action to cope with unequal health risks distribution, and social innovations focusing on these ‘root causes’ are needed in order to prevent and stop endemic social inequalities and social exclusion in health within low-income as well as high-income countries. Increasing existing knowledge and making visible the health status of the most vulnerable and invisible groups are critical in order to contribute to this imperative challenge.

Can the new refugee relocation system work? Perils in the Dublin logic and flawed reception conditions in the EU. CEPS Policy Brief No. 332, October 2015 Thursday, 1 October 2015

This Policy Brief argues that the newly adopted EU temporary relocation (quota) system constitutes a welcome yet timid step forward in addressing a number of central controversies of the current refugee debate in Europe. Two main challenges affect the effective operability of the new EU relocation model. First, EU member states’ asylum systems show profound (on-the-ground) weaknesses in reception conditions and judicial/administrative capacities. These prevent a fair and humane processing of asylum applications. EU states are not implementing the common standards enshrined in the EU reception conditions Directive 2013/33. Second, the new relocation system constitutes a move away from the much-criticised Dublin system, but it is still anchored to its premises. The Dublin system is driven by an unfair and unsustainable rule according to which the first EU state of entry is responsible for assessing asylum applications. It does not properly consider the personal, private and family circumstances or the preferences of asylum-seekers. Policy Recommendations In order to respond to these challenges, the Policy Brief offers the following policy recommendations: The EU should strengthen and better enforce member states’ reception capacities, abolish the current Dublin system rule of allocation of responsibility and expand the new relocation distribution criteria to include in the assessment (as far as possible) asylum-seekers’ preferences and personal/family links to EU member states. EU member countries should give priority to boosting their current and forward-looking administrative and judicial capacities to deal and welcome asylum applications. The EU should establish a permanent common European border and asylum service focused on ensuring the highest standards through stable operational support, institutional solidarity across all EU external borders and the practical implementation of new distribution relocation criteria.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Transfer, distribution and bioaccumulation of microcystins in the aquatic food web in Lake Taihu, China, with potential risks to human health

In this paper, accumulation and distribution of microcystins (MCs) was examined monthly in six species of fish with different trophic levels in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu, China, from June to November 2005, Microcystins were analyzed by liquid chromatography electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS). Average recoveries of spiked fish samples were 67.7% for MC-RR, 85.3% for MC-YR, and 88.6% for MC-LR. The MCs (MC-RR+MC-YR+MC-LR) concentration in liver and gut content was highest in phytoplanktivorous fish, followed by omnivorous fish, and was lowest in carnivorous fish; while MCs concentration in muscle was highest in omnivorous fish, followed by phytoplanktivorous fish, and was lowest in carnivorous fish. This is the first study reporting MCs accumulation in the gonad of fish in field. The main uptake of MC-YR in fish seems to be through the gills from the dissolved MCs. The WHO limit for tolerable daily intake was exceeded only in common carp muscle. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution and bioaccumulation of microcystins in water columns: A systematic investigation into the environmental fate and the risks associated with microcystins in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu

For the purpose of understanding the environmental fate of microcystins (MCs) and the potential health risks caused by toxic cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu, a systematic investigation was carried out from February 2005 to January 2006. The distribution of MCs in the water column, and toxin bioaccumulations in aquatic organisms were surveyed. The results suggested that Lake Taihu is heavily polluted during summer months by toxic cyanobacterial blooms (with a maximum biovolume of 6.7 x 10(8) cells/L) and MCs. The maximum concentration of cell-bound toxins was 1.81 mg/g (DW) and the dissolved MCs reached a maximum level of 6.69 mu g/L. Dissolved MCs were always found in the entire water column at all sampling sites throughout the year. Our results emphasized the need for tracking MCs not only in the entire water column but also at the interface between water and sediment. Seasonal changes of MC concentrations in four species of hydrophytes (Eichhornic crassipes, Potamogeton maackianus, Alternanthera philoxeroides and Myriophyllum spicatum) ranged from 129 to 1317, 147 to 1534, 169 to 3945 and 124 to 956 ng/g (DW), respectively. Toxin accumulations in four aquatic species (Carassius auratus auratu, Macrobrachium nipponensis, Bellamya aeruginosa and Cristaria plicata) were also analyzed. Maximum toxin concentrations in the edible organs and non-edible visceral organs ranged from 378 to 730 and 754 to 3629 ng/g (DW), respectively. Based on field studies in Lake Taihu, risk assessments were carried out, taking into account the WHO guidelines and the tolerable daily intake (TDI) for MCs. Our findings suggest that the third largest lake in China poses serious health threats when serving as a source of drinking water and for recreational use. In addition, it is likely to be unsafe to consume aquatic species harvested in Lake Taihu due to the high-concentrations of accumulated MCs. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the distribution of Swedish tourism services on international markets : Possible export-ready criteria requisitioned by European tour operators

This paper identifies subjects which are relevant for Swedish suppliers of tourism services beforeapproaching foreign markets. Most suppliers are micro, small or medium sized companies anduse intermediaries, such as tour operators, for internationalization. The research considers theopinion of British and German tour operators, which require some criteria beforehand in orderto simplify both the initialization and the development of cooperation. Destination marketingorganizations (DMOs) are hereby the go-betweens since they not only represent small-scalesuppliers on international markets, but also initiate first encounters between suppliers and touroperators. Suppliers need to provide DMOs with accurate information in order to ensure thebest possible representation. After initializing collaboration, business relationships are sought todevelop in order to facilitate long-term cooperation. Proper preparation forms therefore the basefor strengthening the competitiveness of Swedish tourism prior approaching internationalmarkets. The enhancement of distributing Swedish tourism services on foreign markets appearedto be a profitable way to enable further growth, which is strongly limited on the domestic market.Increasing the export share therefore secures and further facilitates tourism’s valuablecontributions to the Swedish economy.

The Poisson-exponential distribution: a Bayesian approach

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks

We describe several simulation algorithms that yield random probability distributions with given values of risk measures. In case of vanilla risk measures, the algorithms involve combining and transforming random cumulative distribution functions or random Lorenz curves obtained by simulating rather general random probability distributions on the unit interval. A new algorithm based on the simulation of a weighted barycentres array is suggested to generate random probability distributions with a given value of the spectral risk measure.

Distribution of major health risks: findings from the global burden of disease study

Background Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. Methods and Findings For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. Conclusions Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.