Impacts of a fuel oil spill on seagrass meadows in a subtropical port, Gladstone, Australia - The value of long-term marine habitat monitoring in high risk areas.

We used an established seagrass monitoring programme to examine the short and longer-term impacts of an oil spill event on intertidal seagrass meadows. Results for potentially impacted seagrass areas were compared with existing monitoring data and with control seagrass meadows located outside of the oil spill area. Seagrass meadows were not significantly affected by the oil spill. Declines in seagrass biomass and area 1 month post-spill were consistent between control and impact meadows. Eight months post-spill, seagrass density and area increased to be within historical ranges. The declines in seagrass meadows were likely attributable to natural seasonal variation and a combination of climatic and anthropogenic impacts. The lack of impact from the oil spill was due to several mitigating factors rather than a lack of toxic effects to seagrasses. The study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring of critical habitats in high risk areas to effectively assess impacts.

Prevalence of antibodies against bluetongue virus serotype 8 in bulk-tank milk samples from dairy cattle herds located in risk areas for bluetongue virus transmission after a vaccination programme in Switzerland.

Switzerland had been affected by the bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Europe in the years 2007 to 2009. After three years of mandatory vaccination and comprehensive surveillance, Switzerland showed to be free of BTV-8 in 2012. In the future Elisa testing of bulk-tank milk (BTM) samples as a very sensitive and cost-effective method should be used for the surveillance of all serotypes of BTV. To determine the prevalence of seropositive herds, BTM from 240 cattle herds was sampled in July 2012. The results showed an apparent seroprevalence of 98.7% in the investigated dairy herds. Most plausible, the high prevalence was caused by the vaccination campaigns rather than by infections with BTV-8. In the outbreak the cumulative number of BTV-8 cases in Switzerland had been 75.Thus it is very likely that the used inactivated vaccines induced long-term antibody titres. Due to the high seroprevalence, investigating for BT-antibodies cannot be used for early recognition of a new introduction of BTV at the moment. Nonetheless, testing of BTM samples is appropriate for an annual evaluation of the seroprevalence and especially as an instrument for early recognition for incursions as soon as the antibody prevalence declines.To determine this decline the BTM testing scheme should be conducted each year as described in this work.

A high-resolution map of direct and indirect connectivity of erosion risk areas to surface waters in Switzerland: A risk assessment tool for planning and policy-making

Off-site effects of soil erosion are becoming increasingly important, particularly the pollution of surface waters. In order to develop environmentally efficient and cost effective mitigation options it is essential to identify areas that bear both a high erosion risk and high connectivity to surface waters. This paper introduces a simple risk assessment tool that allows the delineation of potential critical source areas (CSA) of sediment input into surface waters concerning the agricultural areas of Switzerland. The basis are the erosion risk map with a 2 m resolution (ERM2) and the drainage network, which is extended by drained roads, farm tracks, and slope depressions. The probability of hydrological and sedimentological connectivity is assessed by combining soil erosion risk and extended drainage network with flow distance calculation. A GIS-environment with multiple-flow accumulation algorithms is used for routing runoff generation and flow pathways. The result is a high resolution connectivity map of the agricultural area of Switzerland (888,050 ha). Fifty-five percent of the computed agricultural area is potentially connected with surface waters, 45% is not connected. Surprisingly, the larger part of 34% (62% of the connected area) is indirectly connected with surface waters through drained roads, and only 21% are directly connected. The reason is the topographic complexity and patchiness of the landscape due to a dense road and drainage network. A total of 24% of the connected area and 13% of the computed agricultural area, respectively, are rated with a high connectivity probability. On these CSA an adapted land use is recommended, supported by vegetated buffer strips preventing sediment load. Even areas that are far away from open water bodies can be indirectly connected and need to be included in planning of mitigation measures. Thus, the connectivity map presented is an important decision-making tool for policy-makers and extension services. The map is published on the web and thus available for application.

Comprehensive environmental study in high risk areas for cancer patients comparing air and water Aspergillus species samples

Background. Nosocomial invasive aspergillosis (a highly fatal disease) is an increasing problem for immunocompromised patients. Aspergillus spp. can be transmitted via air (most commonly) and by water. ^ The hypothesis for this prospective study was that there is an association between patient occupancy, housekeeping practices, patients, visitors, and Aspergillus spp. loading. Rooms were sampled as not terminally cleaned (dirty) and terminally cleaned (clean). The secondary hypothesis was that Aspergillus spp. positive samples collected from more than one sampling location within the same patient room represent the same isolate. ^ Methods. Between April and October 2004, 2873 environmental samples (713 air, 607 water, 1256 surface and 297 spore traps) were collected in and around 209 “clean” and “dirty” patient rooms in a large cancer center hospital. Water sources included aerosolized water from patient room showerheads, sinks, drains, and toilets. Bioaerosol samples were from the patient room and from the running shower, flushing toilet, and outside the building. The surface samples included sink and shower drains, showerheads, and air grills. Aspergillus spp. positive samples were also sent for PCR, molecular typing (n = 89). ^ Results. All water samples were negative for Aspergillus spp. There were a total of 130 positive culturable samples (5.1%). The predominant species found was Aspergillus niger. Of the positive culturable samples, 106 (14.9%) were air and 24 (3.8%) were surface. There were 147 spore trap samples, and 49.5% were positive for Aspergillus/Penicillum spp. Of the culturable positive samples sent for PCR, 16 were indistinguishable matches. There was no significant relationship between air and water samples and positive samples from the same room. ^ Conclusion. Primarily patients, visitors and staff bring the Aspergillus spp. into the hospital. The high number of A. niger samples suggests the spores are entering the hospital from outdoors. Eliminating the materials brought to the patient floors from the outside, requiring employees, staff, and visitors to wear cover up over their street clothes, and improved cleaning procedures could further reduce positive samples. Mold strains change frequently; it is probably more significant to understand pathogenicity of viable spores than to commit resources on molecular strain testing on environmental samples alone. ^

School screening for tuberculosis in high risk areas of Texas

Screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is an integral component of an effective tuberculosis control strategy, but one that is often relegated to the lowest priority. In a state with higher than national average rates of tuberculosis, due consideration should be given to LTBI screening. Recent large scale contact investigations in the middle school of Del Rio, Texas, raised questions about the status of school screening for LTBI. An evidence based approach was used to evaluate school screening in high risk areas of Texas. A review of the literature revealed that the current recommendations for LTBI screening in children is based on administration of a risk factor questionnaire that should be based on the four main risk factors for LTBI in children that have been identified. Six representative areas in Texas were identified for evaluation of the occurrence of contact investigations in schools for the period of 2006 to 2009 and any use of school screening programs. Of the five reporting areas that responded, only one utilized a school screening program; this reporting area had the lowest percentage of contact investigations occurring in schools. Contact investigations were most common in middle schools and least common in elementary schools. In metropolitan areas, colleges represented up to 42.9% of contact investigations. The number of contact investigations has increased from 2006 to 2008. This report represents a small sample, and further research into the frequency, distribution and risk for contact investigations in schools and the efficacy of screening programs should be done. ^

High risk areas : for civil preparedness nuclear defense planning purposes /

"TR-82."

Spatiotemporal clustering analysis and risk assessments of human cutaneous anthrax in China, 2005–2012

Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters. Methods CA cases reported during 2005–2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test. Results The group of 30–39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis. Conclusion CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005–2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.

Fatigue fractures in military conscripts : A study on risk factors, diagnostics and long-term consequences

Fatigue fracture is an overuse injury commonly encountered in military and sports medicine, and known to relate to intensive or recently intensified physical activity. Bone responds to increased stress by enhanced remodeling. If physical stress exceeds bone s capability to remodel, accumulation of microfractures can lead to bone fatigue and stress fracture. Clinical diagnosis of stress fractures is complex and based on patient s anamnesis and radiological imaging. Bone stress fractures are mostly low-risk injuries, healing well after non-operative management, yet, occurring in high-risk areas, stress fractures can progress to displacement, often necessitating surgical treatment and resulting in prolonged morbidity. In the current study, the role of vitamin D as a predisposing factor for fatigue fractures was assessed using serum 25OHD level as the index. The average serum 25OHD concentration was significantly lower in conscripts with fatigue fracture than in controls. Evaluating TRACP-5b bone resorption marker as indicator of fatigue fractures, patients with elevated serum TRACP-5b levels had eight times higher probability of sustaining a stress fracture than controls. Among the 154 patients with exercise induced anterior lower leg pain and no previous findings on plain radiography, MRI revealed a total of 143 bone stress injuries in 86 patients. In 99% of the cases, injuries were in the tibia, 57% in the distal third of the tibial shaft. In patients with injury, forty-nine (57%) patients exhibited bilateral stress injuries. In a 20-year follow-up, the incidence of femoral neck fatigue fractures prior to the Finnish Defence Forces new regimen in 1986 addressing prevention of these fractures was 20.8/100,000, but rose to 53.2/100,000 afterwards, a significant 2.6-fold increase. In nineteen subjects with displaced femoral neck fatigue fractures, ten early local complications (in first postoperative year) were evident, and after the first postoperative year, osteonecrosis of the femoral head in six and osteoarthritis of the hip in thirteen patients were found. It seems likely that low vitamin D levels are related to fatigue fractures, and that an increasing trend exists between TRACP-5b bone resorption marker elevation and fatigue fracture incidence. Though seldom detected by plain radiography, fatigue fractures often underlie unclear lower leg stress-related pain occurring in the distal parts of the tibia. Femoral neck fatigue fractures, when displaced, lead to long-term morbidity in a high percentage of patients, whereas, when non-displaced, they do not predispose patients to subsequent adverse complications. Importantly, an educational intervention can diminish the incidence of fracture displacement by enhancing awareness and providing instructions for earlier diagnosis of fatigue fractures.

Mapping the risk of soil-transmitted helminthic infections in the Philippines

Background In order to increase the efficient allocation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) disease control resources in the Philippines, we aimed to describe for the first time the spatial variation in the prevalence of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm across the country, quantify the association between the physical environment and spatial variation of STH infection and develop predictive risk maps for each infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on STH infection from 35,573 individuals across the country were geolocated at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was stratified geographically in two major regions: 1) Luzon and the Visayas and 2) Mindanao. Bayesian geostatistical models of STH prevalence were developed, including age and sex of individuals and environmental variables (rainfall, land surface temperature and distance to inland water bodies) as predictors, and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. The role of environmental variables was different between regions of the Philippines. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao. Conclusions/Significance This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in STH infection prevalence within provinces of the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to STH interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional STH surveys should be prioritized to high-risk areas identified by our study in Luzon.

Predicting critical source areas of sediment in headwater catchments

Mitigation of diffuse nutrient and sediment delivery to streams requires successful identification andmanagement of critical source areas within catchments. Approaches to predicting high risk areas forsediment loss have typically relied on structural drivers of connectivity and risk, with little considera-tion given to process driven water quality responses. To assess the applicability of structural metrics topredict critical source areas, geochemical tracing of land use sources was conducted in three headwateragricultural catchments in Co. Down and Co. Louth, Ireland, within a Monte Carlo framework. Outputswere applied to the inverse optimisation of a connectivity model, based on LiDAR DEM data, to assess theefficacy of land use risk weightings to predict sediment source contributions over the 18 month studyperiod in the Louth Upper, Louth Lower and Down catchments. Results of the study indicated sedimentproportions over the study period varied from 6 to 10%, 84 to 87%, 4%, and 2 to 3% for the Down Catch-ment, 79 to 85%, 9 to 17%, 1 to 3% and 2 to 3% in the Louth Upper and 2 to 3%, 79 to 85%, 10 to 17%and 2 to 3% in the Louth Lower for arable, channel bank, grassland, and woodland sources, respectively.Optimised land use risk weightings for each sampling period showed that at the larger catchment scale,no variation in median land use weightings were required to predict land use contributions. However,for the two smaller study catchments, variation in median risk weightings was considerable, which mayindicate the importance of functional connectivity processes at this spatial scale. In all instances, arableland consistently generated the highest risk of sediment loss across all catchments and sampling times.This study documents some of the first data on sediment provenance in Ireland and indicates the needfor cautious consideration of land use as a tool to predict critical source areas at the headwater scale

Herd-level bovine tuberculosis risk factors: assessing the role of low-level badger population disturbance

Bovine TB (bTB) is endemic in Irish cattle and has eluded eradication despite considerable expenditure, amid debate over the relative roles of badgers and cattle in disease transmission. Using a comprehensive dataset from Northern Ireland (>10,000 km²; 29,513 cattle herds), we investigated interactions between host populations in one of the first large-scale risk factor analyses for new herd breakdowns to combine data on both species. Cattle risk factors (movements, international imports, bTB history, neighbours with bTB) were more strongly associated with herd risk than area-level measures of badger social group density, habitat suitability or persecution (sett disturbance). Highest risks were in areas of high badger social group density and high rates of persecution, potentially representing both responsive persecution of badgers in high cattle risk areas and effects of persecution on cattle bTB risk through badger social group disruption. Average badger persecution was associated with reduced cattle bTB risk (compared with high persecution areas), so persecution may contribute towards sustaining bTB hotspots; findings with important implications for existing and planned disease control programmes.

SESAME: Finding Ways Of Promoting SME Adaptation To Flood Risk

Small and medium-sized companies and other enterprises (SMEs) around the world are exposed to flood risk and many of the 4.5 million in the UK are at risk. As SMEs represent almost half of total business turnover in the UK, their protection is a vital part of the drive for greater climate change resilience. However, few have measures in place to ensure the continuity of their activities during a flood and its aftermath. The SESAME project aims to develop tools that encourage businesses to discover ways of becoming more resilient to floods and to appreciate how much better off they will be once they have adapted to the ongoing risk. By taking some of the mystery out of flooding and flood risk, it aims to make it susceptible to the same business acumen that enables the UK’s SMEs to deal with the many other challenges they face. In this paper we will report on the different aspects of the research in the project Understanding behaviour Changing behaviour Modelling impacts Economic impacts Through the above the project will advise government, local authorities and other public bodies on how to improve their responses to floods and will enable them to recommend ways to improve the guidelines provided to SMEs in flood risk areas.

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A high-resolution soil erosion risk map of Switzerland as strategic policy support system

Soil erosion models and soil erosion risk maps are often used as indicators to assess potential soil erosion in order to assist policy decisions. This paper shows the scientific basis of the soil erosion risk map of Switzerland and its application in policy and practice. Linking a USLE/RUSLE-based model approach (AVErosion) founded on multiple flow algorithms and the unit contributing area concept with an extremely precise and high-resolution digital terrain model (2 m × 2 m grid) using GIS allows for a realistic assessment of the potential soil erosion risk, on single plots, i.e. uniform and comprehensive for the agricultural area of Switzerland (862,579 ha in the valley area and the lower mountain regions). The national or small-scale soil erosion prognosis has thus reached a level heretofore possible only in smaller catchment areas or single plots. Validation was carried out using soil loss data from soil erosion damage mappings in the field from long-term monitoring in different test areas. 45% of the evaluated agricultural area of Switzerland was classified as low potential erosion risk, 12% as moderate potential erosion risk, and 43% as high potential erosion risk. However, many of the areas classified as high potential erosion risk are located at the transition from valley to mountain zone, where many areas are used as permanent grassland, which drastically lowers their current erosion risk. The present soil erosion risk map serves on the one hand to identify and prioritise the high-erosion risk areas, and on the other hand to promote awareness amongst farmers and authorities. It was published on the internet and will be made available to the authorities in digital form. It is intended as a tool for simplifying and standardising enforcement of the legal framework for soil erosion prevention in Switzerland. The work therefore provides a successful example of cooperation between science, policy and practice.