A risk simulation framework for information infrastructure protection

Information communication and technology (ICT) systems are almost ubiquitous in the modern world. It is hard to identify any industry, or for that matter any part of society, that is not in some way dependent on these systems and their continued secure operation. Therefore the security of information infrastructures, both on an organisational and societal level, is of critical importance. Information security risk assessment is an essential part of ensuring that these systems are appropriately protected and positioned to deal with a rapidly changing threat environment. The complexity of these systems and their inter-dependencies however, introduces a similar complexity to the information security risk assessment task. This complexity suggests that information security risk assessment cannot, optimally, be undertaken manually. Information security risk assessment for individual components of the information infrastructure can be aided by the use of a software tool, a type of simulation, which concentrates on modelling failure rather than normal operational simulation. Avoiding the modelling of the operational system will once again reduce the level of complexity of the assessment task. The use of such a tool provides the opportunity to reuse information in many different ways by developing a repository of relevant information to aid in both risk assessment and management and governance and compliance activities. Widespread use of such a tool allows the opportunity for the risk models developed for individual information infrastructure components to be connected in order to develop a model of information security exposures across the entire information infrastructure. In this thesis conceptual and practical aspects of risk and its underlying epistemology are analysed to produce a model suitable for application to information security risk assessment. Based on this work prototype software has been developed to explore these concepts for information security risk assessment. Initial work has been carried out to investigate the use of this software for information security compliance and governance activities. Finally, an initial concept for extending the use of this approach across an information infrastructure is presented.

Critical infrastructure systems : security analysis and modelling approach

A system security analysis and system modelling framework tool is proposed adopting an associated conceptual methodology as the basis for assessing security and conceptually modelling a critical infrastructure system incident. The intent is to identify potential system security issues and gain operational insights that will contribute to improving system resilience, contingency planning, disaster recovery and ameliorating incident management responses for critical infrastructure system incidents. The aforementioned system security analysis and modelling framework is applied to an adverse critical infrastructure system incident case study. This paper reports on the practical application of the framework to a case study of an actual critical infrastructure system failure and the resultant incident implications for the system and the wider regional communities.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.

A risk analysis model to reduce computer security risks among healthcare organizations

The paper describes the on-going development of a new computer-based security risk analysis methodology that may be used to determine the computer security requirements of medical computer systems. The methodology has been developed for use within healthcare, with particular emphasis placed upon protecting medical information systems. The paper goes on to describe some of the problems with existing automated risk analysis systems, and how the ODESSA system may overcome the majority of these problems. Examples of security scenarios are also presented.

An extensible simulation framework for critical infrastructure security

We introduce the Network Security Simulator (NeSSi2), an open source discrete event-based network simulator. It incorporates a variety of features relevant to network security distinguishing it from general-purpose network simulators. Compared to the predecessor NeSSi, it was extended with a three-tier plugin architecture and a generic network model to shift its focus towards simulation framework for critical infrastructures. We demonstrate the gained adaptability by different use cases

Responding to terrorism through networks at sites of critical infrastructure : a case study of Australian airport security networks

The importance of effective multilateral security networks is widely recognised in Australia and internationally as being essential to facilitate the large-scale sharing of information required to respond to the threat of terrorism. Australian national security agencies are currently constructing networks in order to bring the diverse national and international security agencies together to achieve this. This paper examines this process of security network formation in the area of critical infrastructure protection, with particular emphasis on airport security. We address the key issues and factors shaping network formation and the dynamics involved in network practice. These include the need for the networks to extend membership beyond the strictly defined elements of national security; the integration of public and private ‘nodes’ in counter-terrorism ‘networks’; and the broader ‘responsibilisation’ of the private sector and the challenges with ‘enabling’ them in counter-terrorism networks. We argue that the need to integrate public and private agencies in counter-terrorism networks is necessary but faces considerable organisational, cultural, and legal barriers.

Security analysis and modelling framework for critical infrastructure systems

The provision and delivery of many of the services that modern society enjoys are the result of ubiquitous critical infrastructure systems that permeate across many sectors of the Australian community. Moreover, the integration of technological enhancements and networking interconnections between critical infrastructure systems has heightened system interdependence, availability and resilience, including the efficient delivery of services to consumers within Australia's industrialised society. This research delivers a system security analysis and system modelling framework tool based on an associated conceptual methodology as the basis for assessing security and conceptually modelling a critical infrastructure system incident. The intent to identify potential system security issues and gain operational insights that will contribute to improving system resilience, contingency planning development applicable to disaster recovery and ameliorating incident management responses for Australian critical infrastructure system incidents.

Analysis and modelling of critical infrastructure systems

The increasing complexity and interconnectedness of critical infrastructure systems, including the information systems and communication networks that support their existence and functionality, poses questions and challenges. Particularly, in terms of modelling and analysis of the security, survivability and ultimately reliability and continued availability of critical infrastructure systems and the services they deliver to modern society. The focus of this research enquiry is with regard to critiquing and modelling critical infrastructure systems. There are numerous systems analyse and modelling approaches that outline any number of differing methodological approaches, each with their own characteristics, expertise, strengths and weaknesses. The intention of this research is to investigate the merit of applying a ‘softer’ approach to critical infrastructure system security analysis and modelling that broadly views the systems in holistic terms, including their relationships with other systems. The intention is not to discuss or criticise existing research applying quantitative approaches, but to discuss a ‘softer’ system analysis and modelling approach in a security context that is adaptable to analysis modelling of critical infrastructure systems.

Modelling relational aspects of critical infrastructure systems

The relational aspects for critical infrastructure systems are not readily quantifiable as there are numerous variability’s and system dynamics that lack uniformity and are difficult to quantify. Notwithstanding this, there is a large body of existing research that is founded in the area of quantitative analysis of critical infrastructure networks, their system relationships and the resilience of these networks. However, the focus of this research is to investigate the aspect of taking a different, more generalised and holistic system perspective approach. This is to suggest that that through applying network theory and taking a ‘soft’ system-like modelling approach that this offers an alternative approach to viewing and modelling critical infrastructure system relational aspects that warrants further enquiry.