Observation of bus ridership in the aftermath of the 2011 Floods in Southeast Queensland, Australia

The 2011 floods in Southeast Queensland had a devastating impact on many sectors including transport. Road and rail systems across all flooded areas of Queensland were severely affected and significant economic losses occurred as a result of roadway and railway closures. Travellers were compelled to take alternative routes because of road closures or deteriorated traffic conditions on their regular route. Extreme changes in traffic volume can occur under such scenarios which disrupts the network re-equilibrium and re-stabilisation in the recovery phase as travellers continuously adjust their travel options. This study explores how travellers respond to such a major network disruption. A comprehensive study was undertaken focusing on how bus riders reacted to the floods in Southeast Queensland by comparing the ridership patterns before, during and after the floods. The study outcomes revealed the evolving reactions of transit users to direct and indirect impacts of a natural disaster. A good understanding of this process is crucial for developing appropriate strategies to encourage modal shift of automobile users to public transit and also for modelling of travel behaviours during and after a major network disruption caused by natural disasters.

Impact of rain on daily bus ridership : a Brisbane case study

Weather is one of the most significant elements affecting transit ridership on a daily basis. Until now, there has been limited focus in the literature investigating this issue. Adverse weather conditions impact travellers in choosing travel mode and route, travel schedule, and trip making itself. This paper explores the relationship between adverse weather and transit ridership by analysing the correlation between daily bus ridership and daily precipitation for a three-year period from 2010 to 2012. It is observed from the analysis that wet weather has varying impacts on daily bus ridership. Overall, rainfall negatively affects the daily bus ridership in this region. Morning peak-hours and weekend ridership were found more sensitive to rain than entire day’s ridership and weekdays. The study also found a negative correlation between the morning-peak precipitation level and the daily bus ridership, which suggests that a small amount of morning peak-hours rain reduces a significant amount bus ridership for the whole day. The analysis also confirms that summer rain has the most significant effect on ridership compared with the other three seasons. The study findings will contribute to enhancing the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviours, particularly mode choice behaviour under adverse weather conditions.

Adverse weather effects on bus ridership

This study focuses on weather effects on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given bus’ dominance in this city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its sub-tropical climate characteristics. Bus is prone to inclement weather condition as it shares the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer less or sometimes no protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are conjectured to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy day and daily bus ridership for the period of 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall affects negatively with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people may switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway (BRT) corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. Our study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode choice behaviour under adverse weather conditions.

Effects of transit quality of service characteristics on daily bus ridership

This study explores how explicit transit quality of services (TQoS) measures including service frequency, service span, and travel time ratio, along with implicit environmental predictors such as topographic grade factor influence bus ridership using a case study city of Brisbane, Australia. The primary hypothesis tested was that bus ridership is higher within suburbs with high transit quality of service than suburbs that have limited service quality. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) this study identifies a strong positive relationship between route intensity (bus-km/h-km2) and bus ridership, indicating that increasing both service frequency and spatial route density correspond to higher bus ridership. Additionally, travel time ratio (in-vehicle transit travel time to in-vehicle auto travel time) is also found to have significant negative association with ridership within a suburb, reflecting a decline in transit use with increased travel time ratio. Conversely, topographic grade and service span are not found to exert any significant impact on bus ridership in a suburb. Our study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour which is informative to urban transportation policy, planning and provision.

Effects of transit quality of service characteristics on daily bus ridership

This study investigates whether an Australian city’s suburbs having high transit Quality of Service (QoS) are associated with higher transit ridership than those having low transit QoS •We explore how QoS measures including service frequency, service span, service coverage, and travel time ratio, along with implicit environmental predictors such as topographic grade factor influence bus ridership •We applied Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to examine the relationship between QoS and ridership •Its outcomes enhance our understanding of transit user behavior, which is informative to urban transportation policy, planning, and provision

Understanding the effects of complex seasonality on suburban daily transit ridership

Fluctuations in transit ridership pattern over the year have always concerned transport planners, operators and researchers. Predominantly, metrological elements have been specified to explain variability in ridership volume. However, the outcome of this research points to new direction to explain ridership fluctuation in Brisbane. It explored the relationship between daily bus ridership, seasonality and weather variables for a one-year period, 2012. Rather than segregating the entire year’s ridership into the four calendar seasons (summer, autumn, spring, and winter), this analysis distributed the yearly ridership into nine complex seasonality blocks. These represent calendar season, school/university (academic) period and their corresponding holidays, as well as other observant holidays such as Christmas. The dominance of complex seasonality over typical calendar season was established through analysis and using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This research identified a very strong association between complex seasonality and bus ridership. Furthermore, an expectation that Brisbane’s subtropical summer is unfavourable to transit usage was not supported by the findings of this study. A nil association of precipitation and temperature was observed in this region. Finally, this research developed a ridership estimation model, capable of predicting daily ridership within very limited error range. Following the application of this developed model, the estimated annual time series data of each suburb was analysed using Fourier Transformation to appreciate whether any cyclical effects remained, compared with the original data.

Adverse weather effects on bus ridership

This study focuses on the effects of weather on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given the dominance of buses in that city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its subtropical climate characteristics. Bus operation is affected by inclement weather conditions, as buses share the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer little, or sometimes no, protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are thought to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy days and daily bus ridership for the period 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall has a negative effect, with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. The findings of our study enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode-choice behaviour, under adverse weather conditions.

Investigating variation in bus ridership rates within localised areas of a sub-tropical city

This thesis makes a significant contribution to knowledge and understanding of 'Human Travel Behaviour' in relation to transportation research. It holds some important merits that have not been proposed before. It develops a new, comprehensive and meaningful relationship that includes bus transit ridership change due to weather variables, seasonality and transit quality of service within a single daily ridership rate estimation model. The research incorporated both temporal and spatial influences on ridership within a modelling structure, named as the Nested Model Structure. It provides a complete picture of ridership variation across the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

Effects of transit quality of service characteristics on daily bus ridership

A case study of Brisbane, the capital city of Queensland, Australia, explored how explicit measures of transit quality of service (e.g., service frequency, service span, and travel time ratio) and implicit environmental predictors (e.g., topographic grade factor) influenced bus ridership. The primary hypothesis tested was that bus ridership was higher in suburbs with high transit quality of service than in suburbs with limited service quality. Multiple linear regression, used to identify a strong positive relationship between route intensity (bus-km/h-km2) and bus ridership, indicated that both increased service frequency and spatial route density corresponded to higher bus ridership. Additionally, the travel time ratio (i.e., the ratio of in-vehicle transit travel time to in-vehicle automobile travel time) had a significant negative association with suburban ridership: transit use declined as travel time ratio increased. In contrast, topographic grade and service span did not significantly affect suburban bus ridership. The study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveler behavior, which is informative to urban transportation policy, planning, and provision.

Relating Bike Racks and Bike Ridership

Abstract The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the relationship between bicycle ridership and bike racks in a given area. The goal was to discern whether or not the density of bike racks determines the number of riders in the area. I predicted that there would be higher ridership in the areas with a denser bike rack concentration. To investigate this point, I set up five different areas of varying sizes with a similar number of bike racks, and then observed them over a period of 5 business days. By using a simple tally of the bikes found on the racks and bikes locked to other objects, like railings, I collected data in the area during the day when there were likely to be many commuter bikes parked outside. The results show that there is a positive relationship between the density of bike racks in a given area and bike ridership. While there is a positive r-value, more data collection needs to be done to determine the relationship that may exist between bike ridership and bike racks.

Estimating annual ridership and operating expense for fixed route bus systems in small urban areas /

Jan. 1979.

Estimating the latent demand for rail transit : a case study in Perth, Western Australia

This paper presents a study on estimating the latent demand for rail transit in Australian context. Based on travel mode-choice modelling, a two-stage analysis approach is proposed, namely market population identification and mode share estimation. A case study is conducted on Midland-Fremantle rail transit corridor in Perth, Western Australia. The required data mainly include journey-to-work trip data from Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 and work-purpose mode-choice model in Perth Strategic Transport Evaluation Model. The market profile is analysed, such as catchment areas, market population, mode shares, mode specific trip distributions and average trip distances. A numerical simulation is performed to test the sensitivity of the transit ridership to the change of fuel price. A corridor-level transit demand function of fuel price is thus obtained and its characteristics of elasticity are discussed. This study explores a viable approach to developing a decision-support tool for the assessment of short-term impacts of policy and operational adjustments on corridor-level demand for rail transit.

Investigation to enhance high speed rail accessibility

High Speed Rail (HSR) is rapidly gaining popularity worldwide as a safe and efficient transport option for long-distance travel. Designed to win market shares from air transport, HSR systems optimise their productivity between increasing speeds and station spacing to offer high quality service and gain ridership. Recent studies have investigated the effects that the deployment of HSR infrastructure has on spatial distribution and the economic development of cities and regions. Findings appear mostly positive at higher geographical scales, where HSR links connect major urban centres several hundred kilometres apart and already well positioned within a national or international context. Also, at the urban level, studies have shown regeneration and concentration effects around HSR station areas with positive returns on city’s image and economy. However, doubts persist on the effects of HSR at an intermediate scale, where the accessibility trade off on station spacing limits access to many small and medium agglomerations. Thereby, their ability to participate in the development opportunities facilitated by HSR infrastructure is significantly reduced. The locational advantages deriving from transport improvements appear contrasting especially in regions that tend to have a polycentric structure, where cities may present greater accessibility disparities between those served by HSR and those left behind. This thesis fits in this context where intermediate and regional cities do not directly enjoy the presence of an HSR station while having an existing or planned proximate HSR corridor. With the aim of understanding whether there might be a solution to this apparent incongruity, the research investigates strategies to integrate HSR accessibility at the regional level. While current literature recommends to commit with ancillary investments to the uplift of station areas and the renewal of feeder systems, I hypothesised the interoperability between the HSR and the conventional networks to explore the possibilities offered by mixed traffic and infrastructure sharing. Thus, I developed a methodology to quantify the exchange of benefits deriving from this synergistic interaction. In this way, it was possible to understand which level of service quality offered by alternative transit strategies best facilitates the distribution of accessibility benefits for areas far from actual HSR stations. Therefore, strategies were selected for their type of service capable of regional extensions and urban penetrations, while incorporating a combination of specific advantages (e.g. speed, sub-urbanity, capacity, frequency and automation) in order to emulate HSR quality with increasingly efficient services. The North-eastern Italian macro region was selected as case study to ground the research offering concurrently a peripheral polycentric metropolitan form, the presence of a planned HSR corridor with some portions of HSR infrastructure implementation, and the project to develop a suburban rail service extended regionally. Results show significant distributive potential, in terms of network effects produced in relation with HSR, in increasing proportions for all the strategies considered: a regional metro rail strategy (abbreviated RMR), a regional high speed rail strategy (abbreviated RHSR), a regional light rail transit (abbreviated LRT) strategy, and a non-stopping continuous railway system (abbreviated CRS) strategy. The provision of additional tools to value HSR infrastructure against its accessibility benefits and their regional distribution through alternative strategies beyond the actual HSR stations, would have great implications, both politically and technically, in moving towards new dimensions of HSR evaluation and development.

Intraurban rail access : Policy implications of five revealed perspectives from a Q-sorting exercise in three Australian cities

This project advances current understanding of intra-urban rail passengers and their travel experiences in order to help rail industry leaders tailor policy approaches to fit specific, relevant segments of their target population. Using a Q sorting technique and cluster analysis, our preliminary research identified five perspectives occurring in a small sample of rail passengers, who varied in their frequency and location of rail travel as well as certain socio-demographic characteristics. Revealed perspectives (named to capture the gist of their content) included: ‘Rail Travel is About the Destination, Not the Journey’; ‘Despite Challenges, Public Transport is Still the Best Option’; ‘Rail Travel is Fine’; ‘Rail Travel? So Far, So Good’; and ‘Bad Taste for Rail Travel’. This paper discusses each of the perspectives in detail, and considers them in terms of tailored policy implications. An overarching finding from this study is that improving railway travel ‘access’ requires attention to physical, psychological, financial, and social facets of accessibility. For example, designing waiting areas to be more socially functional and comfortable has the potential to increase ridership by addressing social forms of access, decreasing perceived wait times, and making time at the station feel like time well spent. Even at this preliminary stage, the Q sorting technique promises to provide a valuable, holistic albeit fine-grained analysis of passenger attitudes and experiences that will assist industry efforts to increase ridership.

Residential dissonance and mode choice

Residential dissonance refers to the mismatch in land-use patterns between individuals’ preferred residential neighbourhood type and the type of neighbourhood in which they currently reside. Current knowledge regarding the impact of residential dissonance is limited to short-term travel behaviours in urban vs. suburban, and rural vs. urban areas. Although the prevailing view is that dissonants adjust their orientation and lifestyle around their surrounding land use over time, empirical evidence is lacking to support this proposition. This research identifies both short-term mode choice behaviour and medium-term mode shift behaviour of dissonants in transit oriented development (TODs) vs. non-TOD areas in Brisbane, Australia. Natural groupings of neighbourhood profiles (e.g. residential density, land use diversity, intersection density, cul-de-sac density, and public transport accessibility levels) of 3957 individuals were identified as living either in a TOD (510 individuals) or non-TOD (3447 individuals) areas in Brisbane using the TwoStep cluster analysis technique. Levels of dissonance were measured based on a factor analysis of 16 items representing the travel attitudes/preferences of individuals. Two multinomial logistic (MNL) regression models were estimated to understand mode choice behaviour of (1) TOD dissonants, and (2) non-TOD dissonants in 2009, controlling for socio-demographics and environmental characteristics. Two additional MNL regression models were estimated to investigate mode shift behaviour of (3) TOD dissonants, and (4) non-TOD dissonants between 2009 and 2011, also controlling for socio-demographic, changes in socio-demographic, and built environmental factors. The findings suggest that travel preference is relatively more influential in transport mode choice decisions compared with built environment features. Little behavioural evidence was found to support the adjustment of a dissonant orientation toward a particular land use feature and mode accessibility they represent (e.g. a modal shift to greater use of the car for non-TOD dissonants). TOD policies should focus on reducing the level of dissonance in TODs in order to enhance transit ridership.