A new playing field: retrospective voting and soccer in Brazil

O propósito deste estudo é analisar o possível impacto que um viés emocional possa ter nos julgamentos dos eleitores. Nesse sentido utilizamos o futebol como fonte exógena de um choque. O nosso modelo de efeitos fixos nos leva a concluir que vitórias de equipes no final de semana da eleição estão associadas a maior votação no incumbente indicando que um viés emocional pode influenciar o eleitor.

Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives

Recent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.

A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting

In this paper, I provide a formal justi…cation for a well-established coattail effect, when a popular candidate at one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. A political agency frame- work with moral hazard is applied to analyze coattails in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is a natural outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or congressman) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or different parties. The two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, the executive's suc- cess/failure props up/drags down her partisan ally in congressional election, which implies presidential coattails. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by the congressman's performance, which results in reverse coattails. JEL classi…fication: D72, D86. Keywords: Coattail voting; Presidential coattails; Reverse coattails; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.

A Model of Party Discipline in a Congress

This paper studies party discipline in a congress within a political agency framework with retrospective voting. Party discipline serves as an incentive device to induce office- motivated congress members to perform in line with the party leadership's objective of controlling both the executive and the legislative branches of government. I show fi…rst that the same party is more likely to control both branches of government (i.e., uni…ed government) the stronger the party discipline in the congress is. Second, the leader of the governing party imposes more party discipline under uni…ed government than does the opposition leader under divided government. Moreover, the incumbents' aggregate performance increases with party discipline, so a representative voter becomes better off. JEL classi…cation: D72. Keywords: Party discipline; Political agency; Retrospective voting; Office-motivated politicians.

Ensino superior e voto: análise do comportamento eleitoral da comunidade uspiana em 2010

O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar os resultados de uma pesquisa eleitoral realizada nos Campi da USP-Capital pelo Centro de Estudos das Negociações Internacionais (CAENI) e pelo Instituto Júnior de Pesquisas Sociais (IJPS) durante o período de campanha do segundo turno da eleição presidencial de 2010. Discutimos o processo de amostragem e a implicação de pesquisar sobre um universo de pessoas mais escolarizadas e jovens do que a população total. Mostraremos que é mais fácil isolar um comportamento prospectivo nessas condições do que em uma amostra onde o universo é a população de eleitores inteira do país.

A Median Voter Theorem for Postelection Politics

We analyze a model of 'postelection politics', in which (unlike in the more common Downsian models of 'preelection politics') politicians cannot make binding commitments prior to elections. The game begins with an incumbent politician in office, and voters adopt reelection strategies that are contingent on the policies implemented by the incumbent. We generalize previous models of this type by introducing heterogeneity in voters' ideological preferences, and analyze how voters' reelection strategies constrain the policies chosen by a rent-maximizing incumbent. We first show that virtually any policy (and any feasible level of rent for the incumbent) can be sustained in a Nash equilibrium. Then, we derive a 'median voter theorem': the ideal point of the median voter, and the minimum feasible level of rent, are the unique outcomes in any strong Nash equilibrium. We then introduce alternative refinements that are less restrictive. In particular, Ideologically Loyal Coalition-proof equilibrium also leads uniquely to the median outcome.

Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?

In this study, we examine the voting behavior in Indonesian parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2014. After summarizing the changes in Indonesian parties' share of the vote from a historical standpoint, we investigate the voting behavior with simple regression models to analyze the effect of regional characteristics on Islamic/secular parties' vote share, using aggregated panel data at the district level. Then, we also test the hypothesis of retrospective economic voting. The results show that districts which formerly stood strongly behind Islamic parties continued to select those parties, or gave preference to abstention over the parties in some elections. From the point of view of retrospective economic voting, we found that districts which experienced higher per capita economic growth gave more support to the ruling parties, although our results remain tentative because information on 2014 is not yet available.

Is Thyroid Stunning Clinically Relevant? A Retrospective Analysis Of 208 Patients.

Current guidelines have advised against the performance of (131)I-iodide diagnostic whole body scintigraphy (dxWBS) to minimize the occurrence of stunning, and to guarantee the efficiency of radioiodine therapy (RIT). The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of stunning on the efficacy of RIT and disease outcome. This retrospective analysis included 208 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer managed according to a same protocol and followed up for 12-159 months (mean 30 ± 69 months). Patients received RIT in doses ranging from 3,700 to 11,100 MBq (100 mCi to 300 mCi). Post-RIT-whole body scintigraphy images were performed 10 days after RIT in all patients. In addition, images were also performed 24-48 hours after therapy in 22 patients. Outcome was classified as no evidence of disease (NED), stable disease (SD) and progressive disease (PD). Thyroid stunning occurred in 40 patients (19.2%), including 26 patients with NED and 14 patients with SD. A multivariate analysis showed no association between disease outcome and the occurrence of stunning (p = 0.3476). The efficacy of RIT and disease outcome do not seem to be related to thyroid stunning.

The need for artificial tears in glaucoma patients: a comparative, retrospective study

PURPOSE: To evaluate the need for artificial tears by glaucoma patients under topical hypotensive treatment and to identify risk factors associated with it. METHODS: The charts of 175 glaucoma patients under medical treatment and 175 age-matched controls were reviewed. Age, gender, use of artificial tears, number of glaucoma medications used, and duration of treatment were recorded. RESULTS: Significantly more glaucoma patients (n=92; 52.6%) used artificial tears compared to age-matched controls (n=31; 17.7%) (p<0.001). Significantly more females (n=81; 39%) than males (n=42; 28.9%) used artificial tears (p=0.036). When the whole population was analyzed, female gender (OR=1.63) and the presence of glaucoma (OR= 5.14) were risk factors for the use of artificial tears (p<0.05). When the glaucoma population was analyzed, female gender (OR=2.57), number of medications >2 (OR=1.92), and duration of treatment >5 years (OR=2.93) were risk factors for the use of artificial tears (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Topical treatment with antiglaucoma medication is a risk factor for the use of artificial tears. Female gender and long-term treatment of glaucoma with two or more medications were aggravating factors for the need for artificial tears.

A retrospective study of Traumatic Dental Injuries in a Brazilian dental urgency service

Epidemiologic aspects of traumatic dental injuries (TDI) were evaluated in the permanent dentition in a sample of 847 patients treated at the Dental Urgency Service of the Dental School of the Federal University of Goiás, Brazil, between May 2000 and May 2008. The statistical treatment analyzed data from frequency distribution and chi-square test. The level of significance was set at 5% for all analyses. The results showed a higher incident among males (610; 72.01%) with mean age of 6-10 year-old. Uncomplicated crown fracture (without pulp exposure) (502; 26.95%), avulsion (341; 18.30%) and complicated crown fracture (with pulp exposure) (330; 17.71%) were the most prevalent TDI. The prevalence of trauma throughout the years showed proportionality, being observed a larger number of cases between July and September (249; 29.39%). The most affected teeth were the maxillary central incisors (65.65%), followed by the maxillary left lateral incisors (19.67%). In 311 participants (18.25%), only one tooth was involved, while in most patients (536; 81.75%), TDI occurred in more than one tooth. Significant proportion (82.27%) of traumatized teeth presented completely formed root apex. The main etiologic factors involved in TDI were falls (51.71%), traffic accidents (22.90%) and violence (5.67%). Based on the obtained data, it may be concluded that accurate policies of TDI prevention must be established, capable of stimulating the exposure of appropriate protocols for management of these lesions. The prevalence of TDI in Goiânia subpopulation is compared to the prevalence reported in epidemiological studies in others populations.

The burden of physical activity on type 2 diabetes public healthcare expenditures among adults: a retrospective study

Background: Determinants of public healthcare expenditures in type 2 diabetics are not well investigated in developing nations and, therefore, it is not clear if higher physical activity decreases healthcare costs. The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between physical activity and the expenditures in public healthcare on type 2 diabetes mellitus treatment. Methods: Cross-sectional study carried out in Brazil. A total of 121 type 2 diabetics attended to in two Basic Healthcare Units were evaluated. Public healthcare expenditures in the last year were estimated using a specific standard table. Also evaluated were: socio-demographic variables; chronological age; exogenous insulin use; smoking habits; fasting glucose test; diabetic neuropathy and anthropometric measures. Habitual physical activity was assessed by questionnaire. Results: Age (r = 0.20; p = 0.023), body mass index (r = 0.33; p = 0.001) and waist-to-hip ratio (r = 0.20; p = 0.025) were positively related to expenditures on medication for the treatment of diseases other than diabetes. Insulin use was associated with increased expenditures. Higher physical activity was associated with lower expenditure, provided medication for treatment of diseases other than diabetes (OR = 0.19; p = 0.007) and medical consultations (OR = 0.26; p = 0.029). Conclusions: Type 2 diabetics with higher enrollment in physical activity presented consistently lower healthcare expenditures for the public healthcare system.

Mucin pattern reflects the origin of the adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus: a retrospective clinical and laboratorial study

Background: Mucin immunoexpression in adenocarcinoma arising in Barrett's esophagus (BE) may indicate the carcinogenesis pathway. The aim of this study was to evaluate resected specimens of adenocarcinoma in BE for the pattern of mucins and to correlate to the histologic classification. Methods: Specimens were retrospectively collected from thirteen patients who underwent esophageal resection due to adenocarcinoma in BE. Sections were scored for the grade of intestinal metaplasia. The tissues were examined by immunohistochemistry for MUC2 and MUC5AC antibodies. Results: Eleven patients were men. The mean age was 61 years old (varied from 40 to 75 years old). The tumor size had a mean of 4.7 +/- 2.3 cm, and the extension of BE had a mean of 7.7 +/- 1.5 cm. Specialized epithelium with intestinal metaplasia was present in all adjacent mucosas. Immunohistochemistry for MUC2 showed immunoreactivity in goblet cells, while MUC5AC was extensively expressed in the columnar gastric cells, localizing to the surface epithelium and extending to a variable degree into the glandular structures in BE. Tumors were classified according to the mucins in gastric type in 7/13 (MUC5AC positive) and intestinal type in 4/13 (MUC2 positive). Two tumors did not express MUC2 or MUC5AC proteins. The pattern of mucin predominantly expressed in the adjacent epithelium was associated to the mucin expression profile in the tumors, p = 0.047. Conclusion: Barrett's esophagus adenocarcinoma shows either gastric or intestinal type pattern of mucin expression. The two types of tumors developed in Barrett's esophagus may reflect the original cell type involved in the malignant transformation.

Association between intratumoral lymphatic microvessel density (LMVD) and clinicopathologic features in endometrial cancer: a retrospective cohort study

Background: Lymph node metastasis in endometrial cancer significantly decreases survival rate. Few data on the influence of intratumoral lymphatic microvessel density (LMVD) on survival in endometrial cancer are available. Our aim was to assess the intratumoral LMVD of endometrial carcinomas and to investigate its association with classical pathological factors, lymph node metastasis and survival. Methods: Fifty-seven patients with endometrial carcinoma diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 underwent complete surgical staging and evaluation of intratumoral LMVD and other histologic variables. Lymphatic microvessels were identified by immunohistochemical staining using monoclonal antibody against human podoplanin (clone D2-40) and evaluated by counting the number of immunostained lymphatic vessels in 10 hot spot areas at 400x magnification. The LMVD was expressed by the mean number of vessels in these 10 hot spot microscopic fields. We next investigated the association of LMVD with the clinicopathologic findings and prognosis. Results: The mean number of lymphatic vessels counted in all cases ranged between 0 and 4.7. The median value of mean LMVD was 0.5, and defined the cut-off for low and high LMVD. We identified low intratumoral LMVD in 27 (47.4%) patients and high LMVD in 30 (52.6%) patients. High intratumoral LMVD was associated with lesser miometrial and adnaexal infiltration, lesser cervical and peritoneal involvement, and fewer fatal cases. Although there was lower lymph node involvement among cases with high LMVD, the difference did not reach significance. No association was seen between LMVD and FIGO staging, histological type, or vascular invasion. On the other hand, low intratumoral LMVD was associated with poor outcome. Seventy-five percent of deaths occurred in patients with low intratumoral LMVD. Conclusion: Our results show association of high intratumoral LMVD with features related to more localized disease and better outcome. We discuss the role of lymphangiogenesis as an early event in the endometrial carcinogenesis.