A new playing field: retrospective voting and soccer in Brazil

O propósito deste estudo é analisar o possível impacto que um viés emocional possa ter nos julgamentos dos eleitores. Nesse sentido utilizamos o futebol como fonte exógena de um choque. O nosso modelo de efeitos fixos nos leva a concluir que vitórias de equipes no final de semana da eleição estão associadas a maior votação no incumbente indicando que um viés emocional pode influenciar o eleitor.

Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives

Recent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.

Ensino superior e voto: análise do comportamento eleitoral da comunidade uspiana em 2010

O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar os resultados de uma pesquisa eleitoral realizada nos Campi da USP-Capital pelo Centro de Estudos das Negociações Internacionais (CAENI) e pelo Instituto Júnior de Pesquisas Sociais (IJPS) durante o período de campanha do segundo turno da eleição presidencial de 2010. Discutimos o processo de amostragem e a implicação de pesquisar sobre um universo de pessoas mais escolarizadas e jovens do que a população total. Mostraremos que é mais fácil isolar um comportamento prospectivo nessas condições do que em uma amostra onde o universo é a população de eleitores inteira do país.

A Median Voter Theorem for Postelection Politics

We analyze a model of 'postelection politics', in which (unlike in the more common Downsian models of 'preelection politics') politicians cannot make binding commitments prior to elections. The game begins with an incumbent politician in office, and voters adopt reelection strategies that are contingent on the policies implemented by the incumbent. We generalize previous models of this type by introducing heterogeneity in voters' ideological preferences, and analyze how voters' reelection strategies constrain the policies chosen by a rent-maximizing incumbent. We first show that virtually any policy (and any feasible level of rent for the incumbent) can be sustained in a Nash equilibrium. Then, we derive a 'median voter theorem': the ideal point of the median voter, and the minimum feasible level of rent, are the unique outcomes in any strong Nash equilibrium. We then introduce alternative refinements that are less restrictive. In particular, Ideologically Loyal Coalition-proof equilibrium also leads uniquely to the median outcome.

Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?

In this study, we examine the voting behavior in Indonesian parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2014. After summarizing the changes in Indonesian parties' share of the vote from a historical standpoint, we investigate the voting behavior with simple regression models to analyze the effect of regional characteristics on Islamic/secular parties' vote share, using aggregated panel data at the district level. Then, we also test the hypothesis of retrospective economic voting. The results show that districts which formerly stood strongly behind Islamic parties continued to select those parties, or gave preference to abstention over the parties in some elections. From the point of view of retrospective economic voting, we found that districts which experienced higher per capita economic growth gave more support to the ruling parties, although our results remain tentative because information on 2014 is not yet available.

Abstimmen oder Schwimmen? Plebiszitarer Sport und synchronisierte Wahlen. [Sink or swim: Plebiscitary sport and synchronised voting.][In German]

This chapter starts from the observation that new sporting attributes are growing up unnoticed in popular entertainment and ‘reality’ TV. They celebrate not individual heroics but spectator-oriented teamwork which must look effortless and stylish. Instead of objective measurements – ‘faster, higher, stronger’ – winners are picked by voting and consumer choice. Sport and media are converging and integrating. As they do so, what counts as sport, why it is valued, and what it symbolises for contemporary culture, are all changing. I take these changes to be emblematic of something emergent in the culture at large as the modernist paradigm shifts towards a new consumerist paradigm. This is symbolised in new sports, of which the paradigm example is synchronised swimming. The chapter traces these changes via the career and legacy of the Australian swimming and fashion pioneer Annette Kellerman.

Increased body temperature following subarachnoid haemorrhage : a retrospective correlational study

Introduction: Nursing clinicians are primarily responsible for the monitoring and treatment of increased body temperature. The body temperature of patients during their acute care hospital stay is measured at regular repeated intervals. In the event a patient is assessed with an elevated temperature, a multitude of decisions are required. The action of instigating temperature reducing strategies is based upon the assumption that elevated temperature is harmful and that the strategy employed will have some beneficial effect. Background and Significance: The potential harmful effects of increased body temperature (fever, hyperthermia) following neurological insult are well recognised. Although few studies have investigated this phenomenon in the diagnostic population of non-traumatic subarachnoid haemorrhage, it has been demonstrated that increased body temperature occurs in 41 to 72% of patients with poor clinical outcome. However, in the Australian context the frequency, or other characteristics of increased body temperature, as well as the association between increased body temperature with poor clinical outcome has not been established. Design: This study used a correlational study design to: describe the frequency, duration and timing of increased body temperature; determine the association between increased body temperature and clinical outcome; and describe the clinical interventions used to manage increased body temperature in patients with non-traumatic subarachnoid haemorrhage. A retrospective clinical chart audit was conducted on 43 patients who met the inclusion criteria. Findings: The major findings of this study were: increased body temperature occurred frequently; persisted for a long time; and onset did not occur until 20 hours after primary insult; increased body temperature was associated with death or dependent outcome; and no intervention was recorded in many instances. Conclusion: This study has quantified in a non-traumatic subarachnoid haemorrhage patient population the characteristics of increased body temperature, established an association between increased body temperature with death or dependent outcome and described the current management of elevated temperatures in the Australian context to improve nursing practice, education and research.

Factors associated with recurrence of venous leg ulcers : a survey and retrospective chart review

Background: Chronic venous leg ulcers have a significant impact on older individuals’ well-being and health care resources. Unfortunately after healing, up to 70% recur. ----- Objective: To examine the relationships between leg ulcer recurrence and physical activity, compression, nutrition, health, psychosocial indicators and self-care activities in order to provide information for preventive strategies. ----- Design: Survey and retrospective chart review Settings: Two metropolitan hospital and three community-based leg ulcer clinics. ----- Subjects: A sample of 122 community living patients with leg ulcer of venous aetiology which had healed between 12 and 36 months prior to the survey. ---- Methods: Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history and previous ulcer history and treatments; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, psychosocial measures, ulcer recurrences and history, compression and other self-care activities. All variables significantly associated with recurrence at the bivariate level were entered into a logistic regression model to determine their independent influences on recurrence. ----- Results: Median follow-up time was 24 months (range 12–40 months). Sixty-eight percent of participants had recurred. Bivariate analysis found recurrence was positively associated with ulcer duration, cardiac disease, a Body Mass Index ≤20, scoring as at-risk of malnutrition and depression; and negatively associated with increased physical activity, leg elevation, wearing Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or Class 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, and higher self-efficacy scores. After adjusting for all variables, an hour/day of leg elevation (OR=0.04, 95% CI=0.01–0.17), days/week in Class 2 or 3 compression hosiery (OR=0.53, 95% CI=0.34–0.81), Yale Physical Activity Survey score (OR=0.95, 95% CI=0.92–0.98), cardiac disease (OR=5.03, 95% CI=1.01–24.93) and General Self-Efficacy scores (OR=0.83, 95% CI=0.72–0.94) remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with recurrence. ----- Conclusions: Results indicate a history of cardiac disease is a risk factor for recurrence; while leg elevation, physical activity, compression hosiery and strategies to improve self-efficacy are likely to prevent recurrence.

The Australian election survey: the tale of the rabbit-less hat. Voting behaviour in 2007

This paper examines voter attitudes and behaviour at the 2007 Australian federal election., using data from the Australian Election Study. It considers socio-demographic factors as well as the role of policy issues and voter evaluations of the party leaders. The paper concludes that issues, such as the government's WorkChoices policy, as well as health and leadership contributed to Labor's victory.