Cheap and expensive alternatives in stated choice experiments: are they equally considered by respondents?

When analysing choice experiments respondents are assumed to attend all attributes and alternatives in the same way. However, because of the important role that the price of the alternatives can play in the decision-making process, the level of price of a specific alternative may have consequences on the level of consideration given to the remaining attributes of the alternative. In this article, we propose the use of a discrete mixtures logit approach to accommodate respondents ignoring alternatives in stated choice experiments. Our results indicate a higher propensity for respondents to ignore attributes when they face cheap rather than expensive alternatives. We also find that allowing for this leads to substantial improvements in the model performance.

Bayesian estimation of willingness-to-pay where respondents mis-report their preferences

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239-269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non-pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis-reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis-reporting in favour of the non-pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.

Modifying willingness to pay estimates where respondents mis-report their preferences

The likelihood for the Logit model is modified, so as to take account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in stated preference experiments estimating willingness to pay (WTP). Monte Carlo results demonstrate the bias imparted to estimates where there is mis-reporting. The approach is applied to a data set examining consumer preferences for food produced employing a nonpesticide technology. Our modified approach leads to WTP that are substantially downwardly revised.

Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives. This is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first-moment prediction.

Use of lower gastrointestinal endoscopy and fecal occult blood test in the 2007 Swiss Health Interview Survey respondents aged 50 years and older

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence ranks third among all cancers in Switzerland. Screening the general population could decrease CRC incidence and mortality. The aim of this study was to analyze the use of the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy in a representative sample of the Swiss population aged ≥ 50 years. METHODS Data were analyzed from the 2007 Swiss Health Interview Survey and the prevalence estimates and 95 % confidence intervals were calculated based on all instances of lower gastrointestinal endoscopy and FOBT use, as well as on their use for CRC screening. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to describe the association between screening use and sociodemographic characteristics, indicators of healthcare system use, and lifestyle factors. RESULTS In 2007, approximately 36 % of the surveyed people who were aged ≥ 50 years had previously undergone FOBT and approximately 30 % had previously undergone lower gastrointestinal endoscopy. CRC screening use was 7.7 % for FOBT (within the past year) and 6.4 % for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy (within the past 5 years). CRC screening by either method was 13 %. The major determinants of participation in CRC screening were found to be sex (male), physician visits during the past year (one or more), type of health insurance (private), and previous screening for other cancer types. CONCLUSIONS The results of the 2007 Swiss Health Interview Survey indicate rather low levels of FOBT and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy use. Furthermore, the results suggest disparities in the use of CRC screening.

Role of technology: Podcast in influencing respondents to receive a flu shot

Background and Problem: Studies have demonstrated that flu shots are an effective method to control flu infection. However, statistics reveal that only about 68% of people get vaccinated in the U.S. every year. We wanted to develop and evaluate an intervention to increase influenza vaccination rate. [See PDF for complete abstract]

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