Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Moisture Effects on the Reliability of Anisotropic Conductive Film Interconnection for Flip Chip on Flex Applications

Anisotropic conductive film (ACF) which consists of an adhesive epoxy matrix and randomly distributed conductive particles are widely used as the connection material for electronic devices with high I/O counts. However, for the semiconductor industry the reliability of the ACF is still a major concern due to a lack of experimental reliability data. This paper reports the investigations into the moisture-induced failures in Flip-Chip-on-Flex interconnections with Anisotropic Conductive Films (ACFs). Both experimental and modeling methods were applied. In the experiments, the contact resistance was used as a quality indicator and was measured continuously during the accelerated tests (autoclave tests). The temperature, relative humidity and the pressure were set at 121°C, 100%RH, and 2atm respectively. The contact resistance of the ACF joints increased during the tests and nearly 25% of the joints were found to be open after 168 hours’ testing time. Visible conduction gaps between the adhesive and substrate pads were observed. Cracks at the adhesive/flex interface were also found. For a better understanding of the experimental results, 3-D Finite Element (FE) models were built and a macro-micro modeling method was used to determine the moisture diffusion and moisture-induced stresses inside the ACF joints. Modeling results are consistent with the findings in the experimental work.

Moisture Effects on the Reliability of Anisotropic Conductive Films

Anisotropic conductive film (ACF) which consists of an adhesive epoxy matrix and randomly distributed conductive particles are widely used as the connection material for electronic devices with high I/O counts. However, for the semiconductor industry the reliability of the ACF is still a major concern due to a lack of experimental reliability data. This paper reports an investigation into the moisture effects on the reliability of ACF interconnections in the flip-chip-on-flex (FCOF) applications. A macro-micro 3D finite element modeling technique was used in order to make the multi-length-scale modeling of the ACF flip chip possible. The purposes of this modeling work was to understand the role that moisture plays in the failure of ACF flip chips, and to look into the influence of physical properties and geometric characteristics, such as the coefficient of the moisture expansion (CME), Young's modulus of the adhesive matrix and the bump height on the reliability of the ACF interconnections in a humid environment. Simulation results suggest that moisture-induced swelling of the adhesive matrix is the major cause of the ACF joint opening. Modeling results are consistent with the findings in the experimental work.

Road network and GPS tracking with data processing and quality assessment

GPS technology has been embedded into portable, low-cost electronic devices nowadays to track the movements of mobile objects. This implication has greatly impacted the transportation field by creating a novel and rich source of traffic data on the road network. Although the promise offered by GPS devices to overcome problems like underreporting, respondent fatigue, inaccuracies and other human errors in data collection is significant; the technology is still relatively new that it raises many issues for potential users. These issues tend to revolve around the following areas: reliability, data processing and the related application. This thesis aims to study the GPS tracking form the methodological, technical and practical aspects. It first evaluates the reliability of GPS based traffic data based on data from an experiment containing three different traffic modes (car, bike and bus) traveling along the road network. It then outline the general procedure for processing GPS tracking data and discuss related issues that are uncovered by using real-world GPS tracking data of 316 cars. Thirdly, it investigates the influence of road network density in finding optimal location for enhancing travel efficiency and decreasing travel cost. The results show that the geographical positioning is reliable. Velocity is slightly underestimated, whereas altitude measurements are unreliable.Post processing techniques with auxiliary information is found necessary and important when solving the inaccuracy of GPS data. The densities of the road network influence the finding of optimal locations. The influence will stabilize at a certain level and do not deteriorate when the node density is higher.

Reliability and vailidity of self-reported questionnaires related to adolescent violence and consequences, Thailand

In Thailand physical violence among male adolescents is considered a significant public health issue, although there has been little published research into the aetiology and functions of violence in Thai youth. Research in this area has been hampered by a lack of psychometrically sound tools that have been validated to assess problem behaviours in Asian youth. The purpose of this paper is to provide validity and reliability data on an instrument to measure violence in Thai youth. In this study, reliability and validity data for a sample of adolescent Thai youth are reported for the Communities That Care Youth Survey (CTC-YS), a measure of risk and protective factors for violent behaviour, and the STAXI-II, a measure of angry experience and expression. The findings showed overall high internal consistency for both questionnaires, and there was evidence of construct validity. It is concluded that these measures are appropriate for use in research that seeks to investigate youth violence among adolescents in Thailand.

Data replication approach with consistency guarantee for data grid

Data grids have been adopted by many scientific communities that need to share, access, transport, process, and manage geographically distributed large data collections. Data replication is one of the main mechanisms used in data grids whereby identical copies of data are generated and stored at various distributed sites to either improve data access performance or reliability or both. However, when data updates are allowed, it is a great challenge to simultaneously improve performance and reliability while ensuring data consistency of such huge and widely distributed data. In this paper, we address this problem. We propose a new quorum-based data replication protocol with the objectives of minimizing the data update cost, providing high availability and data consistency. We compare the proposed approach with two existing approaches using response time, data consistency, data availability, and communication costs. The results show that the proposed approach performs substantially better than the benchmark approaches.

Influence of abutment-to-fixture design on reliability and failure mode of all-ceramic crown systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The macular mapping test:a reliability study

Background: Age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) is the leading cause of visual disability in people over 60 years of age in the developed world. The success of treatment deteriorates with increased latency of diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of the macular mapping test (MMT), and to investigate its potential as a screening tool. Methods: The study population comprised of 31 healthy eyes of 31 participants. To assess reliability, four macular mapping test (MMT) measurements were taken in two sessions separated by one hour by two practitioners, with reversal of order in the second session. MMT readings were also taken from 17 age-related maculopathy (ARM), and 12 AMD affected eyes. Results: For the normal cohort, average MMT scores ranged from 85.5 to 100.0 MMT points. Scores ranged from 79.0 to 99.0 for the ARM group and from 9.0 to 92.0 for the AMD group. MMT scores were reliable to within ± 7.0 points. The difference between AMD affected eyes and controls (z = 3.761, p = < 0.001) was significant. The difference between ARM affected eyes and controls was not significant (z = -0.216, p = 0.829). Conclusion: The reliability data shows that a change of 14 points or more is required to indicate a clinically significant change. This value is required for use of the MMT as an outcome measure in clinical trials. Although there was no difference between MMT scores from ARM affected eyes and controls, the MMT has the advantage over the Amsler grid in that it uses a letter target, has a peripheral fixation aid, and it provides a numerical score. This score could be beneficial in office and home monitoring of AMD progression, as well as an outcome measure in clinical research. © 2005 Bartlett et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Reliability analysis for hazard and operability studies

Fault tree analysis is used as a tool within hazard and operability (Hazop) studies. The present study proposes a new methodology for obtaining the exact TOP event probability of coherent fault trees. The technique uses a top-down approach similar to that of FATRAM. This new Fault Tree Disjoint Reduction Algorithm resolves all the intermediate events in the tree except OR gates with basic event inputs so that a near minimal cut sets expression is obtained. Then Bennetts' disjoint technique is applied and remaining OR gates are resolved. The technique has been found to be appropriate as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation methods when rare events are countered and exact results are needed. The algorithm has been developed in FORTRAN 77 on the Perq workstation as an addition to the Aston Hazop package. The Perq graphical environment enabled a friendly user interface to be created. The total package takes as its input cause and symptom equations using Lihou's form of coding and produces both drawings of fault trees and the Boolean sum of products expression into which reliability data can be substituted directly.

Application of meta-analytical probabilistic approach for reliability benefits reflective optimal transmission costing – the case of India

In the deregulated Power markets it is necessary to have a appropriate Transmission Pricing methodology that also takes into account “Congestion and Reliability”, in order to ensure an economically viable, equitable, and congestion free power transfer capability, with high reliability and security. This thesis presents results of research conducted on the development of a Decision Making Framework (DMF) of concepts and data analytic and modelling methods for the Reliability benefits Reflective Optimal “cost evaluation for the calculation of Transmission Cost” for composite power systems, using probabilistic methods. The methodology within the DMF devised and reported in this thesis, utilises a full AC Newton-Raphson load flow and a Monte-Carlo approach to determine, Reliability Indices which are then used for the proposed Meta-Analytical Probabilistic Approach (MAPA) for the evaluation and calculation of the Reliability benefit Reflective Optimal Transmission Cost (ROTC), of a transmission system. This DMF includes methods for transmission line embedded cost allocation among transmission transactions, accounting for line capacity-use as well as congestion costing that can be used for pricing using application of Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) as well as Bialek’s method to determine a methodology which consists of a series of methods and procedures as explained in detail in the thesis for the proposed MAPA for ROTC. The MAPA utilises the Bus Data, Generator Data, Line Data, Reliability Data and Customer Damage Function (CDF) Data for the evaluation of Congestion, Transmission and Reliability costing studies using proposed application of PTDF and other established/proven methods which are then compared, analysed and selected according to the area/state requirements and then integrated to develop ROTC. Case studies involving standard 7-Bus, IEEE 30-Bus and 146-Bus Indian utility test systems are conducted and reported throughout in the relevant sections of the dissertation. There are close correlation between results obtained through proposed application of PTDF method with the Bialek’s and different MW-Mile methods. The novel contributions of this research work are: firstly the application of PTDF method developed for determination of Transmission and Congestion costing, which are further compared with other proved methods. The viability of developed method is explained in the methodology, discussion and conclusion chapters. Secondly the development of comprehensive DMF which helps the decision makers to analyse and decide the selection of a costing approaches according to their requirements. As in the DMF all the costing approaches have been integrated to achieve ROTC. Thirdly the composite methodology for calculating ROTC has been formed into suits of algorithms and MATLAB programs for each part of the DMF, which are further described in the methodology section. Finally the dissertation concludes with suggestions for Future work.

Condition-based prognosis of machine health

Modern machines are complex and often required to operate long hours to achieve production targets. The ability to detect symptoms of failure, hence, forecasting the remaining useful life of the machine is vital to prevent catastrophic failures. This is essential to reducing maintenance cost, operation downtime and safety hazard. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognosis models that attempt to forecast machinery health based on either condition data or reliability data. In practice, failure condition trending data are seldom kept by industries and data that ended with a suspension are sometimes treated as failure data. This paper presents a novel approach of incorporating historical failure data and suspended condition trending data in the prognostic model. The proposed model consists of a FFNN whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of Kaplan-Meier estimator and degradation-based failure PDF estimator. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. The viability of the model was tested using a set of industry vibration data.

Student feedback systems in higher education: a focused literature review and environmental scan

In recent times, higher education institutions have paid increasing attention to the views of students to obtain feedback on their experience of learning and teaching through internal surveys. This article reviews research in the field and reports on practices in other Australian universities. Findings demonstrate that while student feedback is valued and used by all Australian universities, survey practices are idiosyncratic and in the majority of cases, questionnaires lack validity and reliability; data are used inadequately or inappropriately; and they offer limited potential for cross-sector benchmarking. The study confirms the need for institutions to develop an overarching framework for evaluation in which a valid, reliable, multidimensional and useful student feedback survey constitutes just one part. Given external expectations and internal requirements to collect feedback from students on their experience of learning and teaching, the pursuit of sound evaluation practices will continue to be of interest at local, national and international levels.

Discriminative ability of functional loading tests for adolescent jumper's knee

Objective. To investigate the reliability and validity of five squat-based loading tests that are clinically appropriate for jumper's knee. The loading tests were step up, double leg squat, double leg squat on a 25-degree decline (decline squat), single leg decline squat, and decline hop. Design. Cross-sectional controlled cohort. Subjects without knee pain comprised controls, those with extensor tendon pain comprised the jumper's knee group. Setting. Institutional athlete study group in Australia Participants. Fifty-six elite adolescent basketball players participated in this study, thirteen comprised the jumper's knee group, fifteen athletes formed a control group. Intervention. Each subject performed each loading test for baseline and reliability data on the first testing day. Subjects then performed three days of intensive (6 h daily) basketball training, after which each loading test was reexamined. Main outcome measures. Eleven point interval scale for pain. Results. The tests that best detected a change in pain due to intensive workload were the single leg decline squat and single leg decline hop. This study found that decline tests have better discriminative ability than the standard squat to detect change in jumper's knee pain due to intensive training. The typical error for these tests ranged from 0.3 to 0.5, however, caution should be exercised in the interpretation of these reliability figures due to relatively low scores. Conclusions. The single leg decline squat is recommended in the physical assessment of adolescent jumper's knee. The decline squat was selected as the best clinical test over the decline hop because it was easier to standardise performance.

Inovações tecnológicas em terapia intensiva: repercussões para a saúde do trabalhador de Enfermagem e o processo de trabalho

A introdução das tecnologias duras no setor saúde transformou o processo de trabalho, e, apesar dos inestimáveis benefícios, deve ser vista com cautela pelos trabalhadores devido a problemas relativos à confiabilidade, à fidedignidade dos dados e à necessidade de manutenção preventiva e corretiva de aparelhos por especialistas. Por outro lado, há exigências impostas em termos de conhecimentos e habilidades para a sua utilização, pois há riscos de erros e iatrogenias que devem ser identificados e trabalhados pela organização com vistas à segurança no desempenho, satisfação e bem estar do trabalhador. Nesse sentido, a sua utilização acarreta o aumento do número de tarefas, a intensificação do ritmo de trabalho, devido à necessidade de controle extenuante por parte do trabalhador no intuito de manter o equilíbrio das demandas advindas da máquina e do paciente. Tais exigências repercutem na saúde do trabalhador e acarreta problemas de ordem física e psíquica. Objetivou-se neste estudo: identificar a percepção do trabalhador de enfermagem sobre a utilização da tecnologia dura em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI); descrever os fatores intervenientes em relação ao uso da tecnologia dura pelo trabalhador de enfermagem em UTI e analisar as repercussões da utilização da tecnologia dura para o processo de trabalho e a saúde do trabalhador de enfermagem em UTI. Estudo qualitativo descritivo, cujos dados foram obtidos em uma UTI de um hospital público situado no município de Niterói-RJ no período de dezembro 2011 a fevereiro 2012 com 25 trabalhadores (11 enfermeiros e 14 técnicos de enfermagem), a partir dos critérios de inclusão adotados. Trabalhou-se com a técnica de entrevista semiestruturada, mediante um roteiro contendo questões sobre a problemática do estudo. O projeto atendeu as exigências presentes na Resolução 196/96, do Ministério da Saúde (MS), tendo sido aprovado pelo Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa (CEP) sob n CAAE: 2063000025811. Na categorização dos depoimentos utilizou-se a técnica de análise do conteúdo de Bardin e os resultados discutidos a luz da Psicodinâmica do Trabalho. Identificou-se que a incorporação da tecnologia dura em UTI, na visão dos trabalhadores de enfermagem é um instrumento de trabalho por proporcionar maior segurança, rapidez na execução das tarefas, confiabilidade e controle em relação ao estado clínico do paciente e minimizar atividades repetitivas. Por outro lado há problemas relativos à manutenção preventiva e corretiva dos aparelhos que acarretam incômodo, interrupções e sobrecarga mental e física devido à necessidade de ajustes frequentes dos alarmes e parâmetros estabelecidos, troca de aparelhos e reposição de peças; fatores limitantes e que exigem a intervenção de especialistas. Diante desta situação de trabalho, as tecnologias duras utilizadas em UTI configuraram-se como fatores de risco psicossocial por acarretarem estresse ocupacional e cujos recursos internos e externos utilizados pelos trabalhadores mostraram-se insuficientes para o seu enfrentamento. Cabe a organização do trabalho, juntamente com os trabalhadores realizar ações que minimizem os fatores de riscos apontados com vistas à satisfação, a motivação e a saúde dos trabalhadores de enfermagem e demais membros da equipe.

"System in package technology" - design for manufacture challenges

Purpose – To present key challenges associated with the evolution of system-in-package technologies and present technical work in reliability modeling and embedded test that contributes to these challenges. Design/methodology/approach – Key challenges have been identified from the electronics and integrated MEMS industrial sectors. Solutions to optimising the reliability of a typical assembly process and reducing the cost of production test have been studied through simulation and modelling studies based on technology data released by NXP and in collaboration with EDA tool vendors Coventor and Flomerics. Findings – Characterised models that deliver special and material dependent reliability data that can be used to optimize robustness of SiP assemblies together with results that indicate relative contributions of various structural variables. An initial analytical model for solder ball reliability and a solution for embedding a low cost test for a capacitive RF-MEMS switch identified as an SiP component presenting a key test challenge. Research limitations/implications – Results will contribute to the further development of NXP wafer level system-in-package technology. Limitations are that feedback on the implementation of recommendations and the physical characterisation of the embedded test solution. Originality/value – Both the methodology and associated studies on the structural reliability of an industrial SiP technology are unique. The analytical model for solder ball life is new as is the embedded test solution for the RF-MEMS switch.