Reliability Analysis of Earth Dams

In the present study, results of reliability analyses of four selected rehabilitated earth dam sections, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati, under pseudostatic loading conditions, are presented. Using the response surface methodology, in combination with first order reliability method and numerical analysis, the reliability index (beta) values are obtained and results are interpreted in conjunction with conventional factor of safety values. The influence of considering variability in the input soil shear strength parameters, horizontal seismic coefficient (alpha(h)), and location of reservoir full level on the stability assessment of the earth dam sections is discussed in the probabilistic framework. A comparison of results with those obtained from other method of reliability analysis, viz., Monte Carlo simulations combined with limit equilibrium approach, provided a basis for discussing the stability of earth dams in probabilistic terms, and the results of the analysis suggest that the considered earth dam sections are reliable and are expected to perform satisfactorily.

Reliability Based Design Optimization for Internal Stability of Reinforced Soil Structures Using Pseudo‐Static Method

Seismic design of reinforced soil structures involves many uncertainties that arise from the backfill soil properties and tensile strength of the reinforcement which is not addressed in current design guidelines. This paper highlights the significance of variability in the internal stability assessment of reinforced soil structures. Reliability analysis is applied to estimate probability of failure and pseudo‐static approach has been used for the calculation of the tensile strength and length of the reinforcement needed to maintain the internal stability against tension and pullout failures. Logarithmic spiral failure surface has been considered in conjunction with the limit equilibrium method. Two modes of failure namely, tension failure and pullout failure have been considered. The influence of variations of the backfill soil friction angle, the tensile strength of reinforcement, horizontal seismic acceleration on the reliability index against tension failure and pullout failure of reinforced earth structure have been discussed.

Reliability based design optimization of gravity retaining walls

In this paper the use of probability theory in reliability based optimum design of reinforced gravity retaining wall is described. The formulation for computing system reliability index is presented. A parametric study is conducted using advanced first order second moment method (AFOSM) developed by Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler (HL-RF) to asses the effect of uncertainties in design parameters on the probability of failure of reinforced gravity retaining wall. Totally 8 modes of failure are considered, viz overturning, sliding, eccentricity, bearing capacity failure, shear and moment failure in the toe slab and heel slab. The analysis is performed by treating back fill soil properties, foundation soil properties, geometric properties of wall, reinforcement properties and concrete properties as random variables. These results are used to investigate optimum wall proportions for different coefficients of variation of φ (5% and 10%) and targeting system reliability index (βt) in the range of 3 – 3.2.

Reliability-based load and resistance factor design approach for external seismic stability of reinforced soil walls

Load and resistance factor design (LRFD) approach for the design of reinforced soil walls is presented to produce designs with consistent and uniform levels of risk for the whole range of design applications. The evaluation of load and resistance factors for the reinforced soil walls based on reliability theory is presented. A first order reliability method (FORM) is used to determine appropriate ranges for the values of the load and resistance factors. Using pseudo-static limit equilibrium method, analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquake loading. The potential failure mechanisms considered in the analysis are sliding failure, eccentricity failure of resultant force (or overturning failure) and bearing capacity failure. The proposed procedure includes the variability associated with reinforced backfill, retained backfill, foundation soil, horizontal seismic acceleration and surcharge load acting on the wall. Partial factors needed to maintain the stability against three modes of failure by targeting component reliability index of 3.0 are obtained for various values of coefficients of variation (COV) of friction angle of backfill and foundation soil, distributed dead load surcharge, cohesion of the foundation soil and horizontal seismic acceleration. A comparative study between LRFD and allowable stress design (ASD) is also presented with a design example. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An approach for reliability-based robust design optimisation of angle-ply composites

Variations of manufacturing process parameters and environmental aspects may affect the quality and performance of composite materials, which consequently affects their structural behaviour. Reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) and robust design optimisation (RDO) searches for safe structural systems with minimal variability of response when subjected to uncertainties in material design parameters. An approach that simultaneously considers reliability and robustness is proposed in this paper. Depending on a given reliability index imposed on composite structures, a trade-off is established between the performance targets and robustness. Robustness is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of the constrained structural response weighted by its nominal value. The Pareto normed front is built and the nearest point to the origin is estimated as the best solution of the bi-objective optimisation problem.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

The relative and absolute reliability of two balance performance measures in chronic stroke patients

Purpose. To examine the relative reliability and absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Postural Assessment Scale for Stroke Patients (PASS) in chronic stroke patients. Method. A total of 52 mild to moderate stroke patients, who had a stroke more than 6 months previously, participated in the study. Both balance measures were administered twice, seven days apart, to the patients. A relative reliability index (intra-class correlation coefficient, ICC2,1) was used to examine the level of agreement between test and retest. Absolute reliability indices, including the Bland and Altman method, the standard error of measurement (SEM), and the smallest real differences (SRD), were used to define the extent to which a balance score varies on test-retest measurements. Results. Test-retest agreements were high (ICC2,1: BBS = 0.98; PASS = 0.97), indicating excellent agreement from a relative perspective. The SEM of the BBS and PASS, representing the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a group of individuals, were 2.4 and 1.1, respectively. The SRD of the BBS and PASS were 6.7 and 3.2, respectively, exhibiting the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a single individual. Conclusions. The test-retest agreements of the BBS and PASS were high in mild to moderate chronic stroke patients. The thresholds of both measures to detect real change are acceptable in research and clinical settings.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Specialized genetic algorithm for transmission network expansion planning considering reliability

This paper presents a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem (TNEP) considering reliability and uncertainty in the demand. The proposed methodology provides an optimal expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately with an acceptable level of reliability and in an enviroment with uncertainness. The reliability criterion limits the expected value of the reliability index (LOLE - Loss Of Load Expectation) of the expanded system. The reliability is evaluated for the transmission system using an analytical technique based in enumeration. The mathematical model is solved, in a efficient way, using a specialized genetic algorithm of Chu-Beasley modified. Detailed results from an illustrative example are presented and discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

Network reconfiguration of distribution systems using metaheuristics and reliability measures

In an evermore competitive environment, power distribution companies need to continuously monitor and improve the reliability indices of their systems. The network reconfiguration (NR) of a distribution system is a technique that well adapts to this new deregulated environment for it allows improvement of system reliability indices without the onus involved in procuring new equipment. This paper presents a reliability-based NR methodology that uses metaheuristic techniques to search for the optimal network configuration. Three metaheuristics, i.e. Tabu Search, Evolution Strategy, and Differential Evolution, are tested using a Brazilian distribution network and the results are discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

Optimal allocation of a cross-connection and sectionalizers in distribution systems

In this paper, the placement of sectionalizers, as well as, a cross-connection is optimally determined so that the objective function is minimized. The objective function employed in this paper consists of two main parts, the switch cost and the reliability cost. The switch cost is composed of the cost of sectionalizers and cross-connection and the reliability cost is assumed to be proportional to a reliability index, SAIDI. To optimize the allocation of sectionalizers and cross-connection problem realistically, the cost related to each element is considered as discrete. In consequence of binary variables for the availability of sectionalizers, the problem is extremely discrete. Therefore, the probability of local minimum risk is high and a heuristic-based optimization method is needed. A Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) is employed in this paper to deal with this discrete problem. Finally, a testing distribution system is used to validate the proposed method.

Optimal allocation and sizing of DGs in a distribution system using PSO

In this paper, the optimal allocation and sizing of distributed generators (DGs) in a distribution system is studied. To achieve this goal, an optimization problem should be solved in which the main objective is to minimize the DGs cost and to maximise the reliability simultaneously. The active power balance between loads and DGs during the isolation time is used as a constraint. Another point considered in this process is the load shedding. It means that if the summation of DGs active power in a zone, isolated by the sectionalizers because of a fault, is less than the total active power of loads located in that zone, the program start shedding the loads in one-by-one using the priority rule still the active power balance is satisfied. This assumption decreases the reliability index, SAIDI, compared with the case loads in a zone are shed when total DGs power is less than the total load power. To validate the proposed method, a 17-bus distribution system is employed and the results are analysed.

Anharmonic Effects in Germanium

A precise X-ray investigation is carried out to probe the lowest-order anharmonic contribution of the atomic potential of the germanium atom. A total number of 1052 reflections (h + k + l = 4n and 4n +/- 1) are precisely measured at room temperature using a spherical single crystal of germanium and using a Nonius CAD-4 X-ray diffractometer with crystal monochromatized MoKalpha radiation. A least-square refinement program is used to refine the harmonic and anharmonic thermal parameters of the crystal. The refinement gives beta(Ge) = (-0.749 +/- 1.79) x 10-(16) J nm-3 with B(Ge) = (0.528 +/- 0.004) x 10(-2) nm2. The reliability index (R) amounts to 1.71% for germanium.

Análise probabilística de segurança de barragens gravidade de betão

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Estruturas

Uncertainty assessment approach for composite structures based on global sensitivity indices

The problem of uncertainty propagation in composite laminate structures is studied. An approach based on the optimal design of composite structures to achieve a target reliability level is proposed. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a design domain centred at mean values of random variables, aimed at studying the space variability. The most critical Tsai number, the structural reliability index and the sensitivities are obtained for each UDM design point, using the maximum load obtained from optimal design search. Using the UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on supervised evolutionary learning. Finally, using the developed ANN a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is implemented and the variability of the structural response based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is studied. The GSA is based on the first order Sobol indices and relative sensitivities. An appropriate GSA algorithm aiming to obtain Sobol indices is proposed. The most important sources of uncertainty are identified.