The relative age effect in Australian Football League players

Youth sports teams are usually grouped into yearly age groups based on fixed cut-off date (September 1st in the UK and January 1st in Australia). Children born just after this cut-off will be the oldest and most mature in their age group. This gives them an advantage in competitive sport, an advantage which has persisted into adulthood as shown by seasonal patterns in the dates of birth of professional ice hockey, football and basketball players. We were interested in whether a similar seasonal pattern exists in professional Australian Football League (AFL) players. We examined all AFL players in the 2009 season excluding foreign-born players. We compared the observed number of players’ born in each month with the expected number based on national statistics. There was a marked and statistically significant seasonality in players’ dates of birth. There were 33% more players than expected with dates of birth in January, and 25% fewer in December. Players who are relatively older in youth AFL teams have a better chance of turning professional.

Political selection and the relative age effect

In this paper we present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favor of those that have been the oldest in their cohort at school. This “relative age effect” has been proven to influence performance at school and in sports,but evidence on its impact on people’s vocational success has been rare. We find a marked break in the density of birthdate of politicians using a maximum likelihood test and McCrary’s (2008) nonparametric test. We conjecture that being relatively old in a peer group may create long term advantages which can create a significant role in the ability to succeed in a highly competitive environment like the race for top political offices in the USA. The magnitude of the effect we estimate is larger than what most other studies on the relative age effect for a broader (adult) population find, but is in general in line with studies that look at populations in high-competition environments.

Physical performance profile of sub-elite juvenile Gaelic Games players and the prevalence of a Relative Age Effect (RAE)

Gaelic Games are the indigenous sports played in Ireland, the most popular being Gaelic football and hurling. The games are contact sports and the physical demands are thought to be similar to those of Australian Rules football, rugby union, rugby league, field hockey, and lacrosse (Delahunt et al., 2011). The difference in chronological age between children in a single age group is known as relative age and its consequences as the RAE, whereby younger players are disadvantaged (Del Campo et al., 2010). The purpose of this study was to describe the physical and performance profile of sub-elite juvenile Gaelic Games players and to establish if a RAE is present in this cohort and any influence physiological moderator variables may have on this. Following receipt of ethical approval (EHSREC11-45), six sub-elite county development squads (Under-14/15/16 age groups, male, n=115) volunteered to partake in the study. Anthropometric data including skin folds and girths were collected. A number of field tests of physical performance including 5 and 20m speed, vertical and broad jump distance, and an estimate of VO2max were carried out. Descriptive data are presented as Mean SD. Juvenile sub-elite Gaelic Games players aged 14.53 0.82 y were 172.87 7.63 cm tall, had a mass of 64.74 11.06 kg, a BMI of 21.57 2.82 kg.m-2 and 9.22 4.78 % body fat. Flexibility, measured by sit and reach was 33.62 6.86 cm and lower limb power measured by vertical and broad jump were 42.19 5.73 and 191.16 25.26 cm, respectively. Participant time to complete 5m, 20m and an agility test (T-Test) was 1.12 0.07, 3.31 0.30 and 9.31 0.55 s respectively. Participant’s estimated VO2max was 48.23 5.05 ml.kg.min-1. Chi-Square analysis of birth month by quartile (Q1 = January-March) revealed that a RAE was present in this cohort, whereby an over-representation of players born in Q1 compared with Q2, Q3 and Q4 was evident (2 = 14.078, df = 3, p = 0.003). Kruskal-Wallis analysis of the data revealed no significant difference in any of the performance parameters based on quartile of birth (Alpha level = 0.05).This study provides a physical performance profile of juvenile sub-elite Gaelic Games players, comparable with those of other sports such as soccer and rugby. This novel data can inform us of the physical requirements of the sport. The evidence of a RAE is similar to that observed in other contact sports such as soccer and rugby league (Carling et al, 2009; Till et al, 2010). Although a RAE exists in this cohort, this cannot be explained by any physical/physiological moderator variables. Carling C et al. (2009). Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sport 19, 3-9. Delahunt E et al. (2011). Journal of Athletic Training 46, 241-5. Del Campo DG et al. (2010). Journal of Sport Science and Medicine 9, 190-198. Delorme N et al. (2010). European Journal of Sport Science 10, 91-96. Till K et al. (2010). Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sports 20, 320-329.

Born leaders: Political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress

We present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favour of those who were the eldest in their cohort at school. This result adds to the research on the long-term effects of relative age among peers at school. We discuss parametric and non-parametric tests to identify this effect, and we show that it is not driven by measurement error, redshirting or a sorting effect of highly educated parents. The magnitude of the effect that we estimate is larger than what other studies on ‘relative age effects’ have found for broader populations but is in general consistent with research that looks at professional sportsmen. We also find that relative age does not seem to correlate with the quality of elected politicians.

The Relative Age Effect in Minor Ice Hockey: Investigating the 'Underdog Effect'

Abstract The Relative Age Effect (RAE), defined as a skewed birth date distribution, has been identified as a known phenomenon in minor ice hockey. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the RAE, physical measurements, and skating ability/in-game performance in forty-four youth male ice hockey players competing in the same age cohort. Physical anthropometrics, grip strength, in-game performance and skating abilities were measured. An RAE was found in the sample (χ2(3, N = 44) = 12.18, p = 0.007). Players born in the first half of the age cohort had longer leg length (F(1,42) =4.49 , p = 0.04), larger body mass (F(1,42) = 3.90, p = 0.05), and stronger grip strength (F(1,42) = 7.58, p = 0.009). Performance scores were negatively associated with grip strength (r = -.443, p = 0.003). Findings suggest that adequate skill development can help relatively younger players overcome physical maturity disadvantages.

Relative age effect on the reaction time of soccer players under 13 years old

O efeito da idade relativa, que consiste na vantagem obtida pelo atleta nascido mais próximo ao início do ano de seleção, tem se mostrado uma variável importante para o processo de seleção de esportistas. Este estudo objetivou avaliar a influência da época de nascimento no tempo de reação de escolha de futebolistas presentes nas categorias de base (sub 13) de clubes profissionais futebol. Participaram 76 atletas com idade de 13,36 ± 0,45 anos. Os voluntários foram submetidos ao teste do TRE, e os resultados categorizados conforme o semestre de nascimento (S1 ou S2). Foi empregado o teste t para a comparação entre grupos, e análise de Correlação de Pearson para verificar a existência de associações entre as variáveis. Os resultados não indicaram diferenças entre os grupos no tempo de reação (r = 0,033 e p = 0,772) e no tempo de movimento (r = 0,0073 e p = 0,530). Concluiu-se que para essa população, a época de nascimento não influencia no desempenho dessa capacidade.

Relative Age Effect in Young Swiss Alpine Skiers From 2004 to 2011

PURPOSE To verify whether the relative age effects (RAEs) occur among young male and female Swiss alpine skiers of different age groups and performance levels. Additionally, the efficacy of normalizing performance in physical tests to height and body mass to attenuate RAEs eventually present was tested. METHODS The Swiss-Ski Power Test consists of anthropometric measures and physical tests for coordination and speed, endurance and strength and is used since 2004 to evaluate 11- to 19-years old Swiss competitive alpine skiers. We analysed the distribution of 6996 tests performed by 1438 male and 1031 female alpine skiers between 2004 and 2011 according to the athlete's relative age quartile (Q). Differences in anthropometric measures and performance in physical tests according to Q were assessed and the possibility of attenuating eventual RAEs on performance by normalization of results to height and body mass was tested. RESULTS RAEs were found among all female and male age groups, with no differences between age groups. While performance level did not affect RAE for male skiers, it influenced RAE among female skiers. RAEs also influenced results in all physical tests except upper limbs strength. Normalization of results to body mass attenuated most RAEs identified. CONCLUSION small RAEs are present among young Swiss competitive alpine skiers and should be taken into account in training and selection settings, avoiding the waste of possible future talents. When ranking junior athletes according to their performance in physical tests, normalization of results to body mass decreases the bias caused by RAEs.

Olika chans beroende på födelsemånad : En kvantitativ undersökning av relative age effect på svenska längdskidgymnasier

Syfte Syftet med studien var att undersöka om relative age effect förekommer på svenska längdskidgymnasier bland antagna elever och hur eventuell förekomst ser ut bland flickor och pojkar samt hur det ser ut vid Riksidrottsgymnasierna och de Nationell Idrottsutbildningarna. Metod För att besvara syftet har statistisk data analyserats med hjälp av ett Pearson Chi2-test. Analysen har skett genom att undersöka födelsemånad, kön och inriktning bland antagna elever vid svenska längdskidgymnasier mellan åren 2010-2015. Resultat Resultatet visar att det finns signifikanta bevis på att relative age effect förkommer på svenska längdskidgymnasier (p= <0,05). Vid uppdelning av respektive utbildningsinriktning kunde det endast konstateras förekomst av relative age effect vid Riksidrottsgymnasierna, vid uppdelning av kön går det inte att säkerställa en signifikant förekomst av relative age effect. Slutsatser Studiens resultat visar att det förekommer relative age effect på svenska längdskidgymnasier, dock varierar den mellan de analyserade undervariablerna. Tydligast förekommer relative age effect vid Riksidrottsgymnasierna, medan det vid Nationell Idottsutbildning, kunde det inte konstateras bevis för en signifikant överrepresentation av elever födda under första kvartalet. När flickor och pojkar analyserades separat kunde ingen relative age effect konstateras. Det behövs mer forskning inom området för att få en överblick av konsekvenserna av relative age effect på längdskidgymnasier men även konsekvenserna för svensk längdskidåkning i stort.

(Table 3) Age-related trends of desert pavement properties in the Transantarctic Mountains

Compared to mid-latitude deserts, the properties, formation and evolution of desert pavements and the underlying vesicular layer in Antarctica are poorly understood. This study examines the desert pavements and the vesicular layer from seven soil chronosequences in the Transantarctic Mountains that have developed on two contrasting parent materials: sandstone-dolerite and granite-gneiss. The pavement density commonly ranges from 63 to 92% with a median value of 80% and does not vary significantly with time of exposure or parent material composition. The dominant size range of clasts decreases with time of exposure, ranging from 16-64 mm on Holocene and late Quaternary surfaces to 8-16 mm on surfaces of middle Quaternary and older age. The proportion of clasts with ventifaction increases progressively through time from 20% on drifts of Holocene and late Quaternary age to 35% on Miocene-aged drifts. Desert varnish forms rapidly, especially on dolerite clasts, with nearly 100% cover on surfaces of early Quaternary and older age. Macropitting occurs only on clasts that have been exposed since the Miocene. A pavement development index, based on predominant clast-size class, pavement density, and the proportion of clasts with ventifaction, varnish, and pits, readily differentiated pavements according to relative age. From these findings we judge that desert pavements initially form from a surficial concentration of boulders during till deposition followed by a short period of deflation and a longer period of progressive chemical and physical weathering of surface clasts. The vesicular layer that underlies the desert pavement averages 4 cm in thickness and is enriched in silt, which is contributed primarily by weathering rather than eolian deposition. A comparison is made between desert pavement properties in mid-latitude deserts and Antarctic deserts.

Age estimations of calcareous nannofossil biohorizons of the middle Paleocene to early Eocene at ODP Site 208-1262 (Table 1, Appendix B)

Over the last several decades debates on the 'tempo and mode' of evolution have centered on the question whether morphological evolution preferentially occurs gradually or punctuated, i.e., with long periods of stasis alternating with short periods of rapid morphological change and generation of new species. Another major debate is focused on the question whether long-term evolution is driven by, or at least strongly influenced by changes in the environment, or by interaction with other life forms. Microfossils offer a unique opportunity to obtain the large datasets as well as the precision in dating of subsequent samples to study both these questions.We present high-resolution analyses of selected calcareous nannofossils from the deep-sea section recovered at ODP Site 1262 (Leg 208) in the South-eastern Atlantic. The studied section encompasses nannofossil Zones NP4-NP12 (equivalent to CP3-CP10) and Chrons C27r-C24n. We document more than 70 biohorizons occurring over an about 10 Myr time interval, (~62.5 Ma to ~52.5 Ma), and discuss their reliability and reproducibility with respect to previous data, thus providing an improved biostratigraphic framework, which we relate to magnetostratigraphic information, and present for two possible options of a new Paleocene stratigraphic framework based on cyclostratigraphy. This new framework enabled us to tentatively reconstruct steps in the evolution of early Paleogene calcareous nannoplankton through documentation of transitional morphotypes between genera and/or species and of the phylogenetic relations between the genera Fasciculithus, Heliolithus, Discoasteroides and Discoaster, as well as between Rhomboaster and Tribrachiatus. The exceptional record provided by the continuous, composite sequence recovered at Walvis Ridge allows us to describe the mode of evolution among calcareous nannoplankton: new genera and/or new species usually originated through branching of lineages via gradual, but relatively rapid, morphological transitions, as documented by the presence of intermediate forms between the end-member ancestral and descendant forms. Significant modifications in the calcareous nannofossil assemblages are often "related" to significant changes in environmental conditions, but the appearance of structural innovations and radiations within a single genus also occurred during "stable" environmental conditions. These lines of evidence suggest that nannoplankton evolution is not always directly triggered by stressed environmental conditions but could be also driven by endogenous biotic control.

Age determination in individual wild-caught Drosophila serrata using pteridine concentration

Fluorescence spectrophotometry can reliably detect levels of the pteridine 6-biopterin in the heads of individual Drosophila serrata Malloch 1927. Pteridine content in both laboratory and field captured flies is typically a level of magnitude higher than the minimally detectable level (mean(lab)=0.54 units, mean(field)=0.44 units, minimum detectable level=0.01 units) and can be used to predict individual age in laboratory populations with high certainty (r(2)=57%). Laboratory studies of individuals of known age ( from 1 to 48 days old) indicate that while pteridine level increases linearly with age, they also increase in a linear manner with rearing temperature and ambient light levels, but are independent of sex. As expected, the longevity of laboratory-reared males ( at least 48 days) is higher than the range of predicted ages of wild-caught males based on individual pteridine levels (40 days). However, the predictive equation based on pteridine level alone suggested that a number of wild-caught males were less than 0 days old, and the 95% confidence for these predictions based on the inverse regression broad. The age of the oldest wild-caught male is to fall within the range of 2 to 50 days. The effects of temperature and light intensity determined in laboratory study (effect sizes omega(2)=14.3 and respectively) suggests that the calibration of the prediction equation for field populations would significantly improved when combined with fine scaled studies of habitat temperature and light conditions. ability to determine relative age in individual wild-caught D. serrata presents great opportunities for a variety evolutionary studies on the dynamics of populations.

Essays in the political economy of voting and reforms

This thesis presents four essays in the political economy of elections and reforms. The first study exploits discontinuities around school entry cut-off dates to show that early childhood conditions can impact the probability to become a top-flight politician. The second study provides empirical estimates of the effect of sequential voting on turnout and bandwagon voting outside the laboratory. The third work describes a novel nonparametric strategy to identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results using British election data. Finally, a study is put forward that examines the political feasibility of reforms.