904 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Background  Models of service provision and professional training differ between countries. This study aims to investigate a specialist intellectual disabilities model and a generic mental health model, specifically comparing psychiatrists’ knowledge and competencies, and service quality and accessibility in meeting the mental health needs of people with intellectual disabilities. Method  Data were collected from consultant and trainee psychiatrists within a specialist intellectual disabilities model (UK) and a generic mental health model (Australia). Results  The sample sizes were 294 (UK) and 205 (Australia). Statistically significant differences were found, with UK participants having positive views about the specialist intellectual disabilities service model they worked within, demonstrating flexible and accessible working practices and service provision, responsive to the range of mental health needs of the population with intellectual disabilities, and providing a wide range of treatments and supports. The UK participants were knowledgeable, well trained and confident in their work. They wanted to work with people with intellectual disabilities. In all of these areas, the converse was found from the Australian generic mental health service model. Conclusions  The specialist intellectual disabilities model of service provision and training has advantages over the generic mental health model.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientadora: Professora Doutora Patrícia Ramos

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The following paper examines federally accredited and funded aged care provision in regional Victoria. Benchmarks that have been set by the Australian Department of Health and Ageing, are used to measure and compare the relative number of high and low level aged care positions and Community Aged Care Packages in six regional Victorian centres.
Using population forecasts, the additional aged care positions that each centre will require to meet the provision benchmarks in the year 2021 have been estimated. These figures are then translated into infrastructure requirements for the regional Victorian city of Greater Bendigo. This is done by surveying Greater Bendigo’s existing residential aged care facilities. Strategies for the provision of additional high and low level residential aged care infrastructure are explored using a matrix governed by size and configuration. Variations in these two aspects are shown to affect the location options for future facilities in Greater Bendigo. The implications of the benchmarks are also investigated in terms of facilities for the provision of Community Aged Care Packages.
The research is funded by a double ARC APAI grant between the Built Environment Research Group at Deakin University, The Centre for Sustainable Regional Centres at La Trobe University, the City of Greater Bendigo and the City of Warrnambool.

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Aims & rationale/Objectives : The objectives of this workforce and service enhancement project include: (i) establishing the magnitude of podiatry needs; and (ii) developing a model that can be used to enhance podiatry workforce and podiatry services.
Methods : Surveys to podiatrists and health agencies to determine vacancies, waiting lists, work practices and recruitment methods. Desktop analysis of predictive data for burden of disease and population changes per local government area (LGA). Meetings with podiatrists and their professional association, health care agencies, universities, and Local and State Governments.
Principal findings : Results showed
Long podiatry waiting lists (up to 12 months)
Podiatry vacancies and service gaps
Absence of qualified foot assistants
A high chronic disease burden
A population age mix that is predicted to change dramatically over the next 25 years in favour of those who are 60 years of age or older
Ineffective recruitment methods
The workforce enhancement model that emanated from the meetings with the steering group includes podiatrists as well as auxiliaries such as foot-care assistants who work together in an interprofessional model of care that expands across the region. In addition to training foot-care assistants and the development of a podiatry teaching clinic to enhance student placement, the model builds onto a current continuous professional development program for allied health professionals.
Discussion : Although the allied health workforce (including podiatry) is playing an increasingly important role in the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases, rural areas in particular are disadvantaged by recruitment and retention problems. The podiatry workforce shortage is compounded by ageing populations. Age is associated with increased podiatry usage due to chronic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and osteoarthritis.
Implications : A strategic plan developed in consultation with stakeholders aims to improve rural podiatry services in a sustainable manner. The project will be implemented when adequate funding is allocated this year and will be evaluated on its impact on services.
Presentation type : Paper

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Rehabilitation programs for violent offenders are at an early stage in their development, and there is currently only a very limited empirical base from which to draw any conclusions about treatment effectiveness (Jolliffe and Farrington, 2007). Therapeutic communities for offender populations have a much longer history, although the effects of applying this model of treatment to violent offenders have not been systematically investigated. This paper reviews the content and evidence supporting both violent offender treatment programs and therapeutic community models, concluding that approaches to treatment which combine features of both may prove to be most successful, and warrant further development and evaluation.

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Objective. To outline the major findings of a qualitative evaluation of an Early Psychosis Service 3 years after its establishment.

Design. Data to evaluate the service were collected from team meetings, focus groups, individual interviews and questionnaires administered to clinicians, school staff, patients, carers and families.

Setting. Barwon Health; Mental Health, Drug and Alcohol Services provide public mental health care to the Geelong, Victoria, region (population 270 000), which is a mixed urban and rural setting. The Early Psychosis Service model implemented involved the placement of two early psychosis workers into each offive adult geographically based Area Mental Health Teams rather than the establishment of a single Early Psychosis Team.

Results. The service was found not to adhere to its original design in several key respects. Caseloads and periods of case management were found to be lower and shorter respectively than was originally planned for, caseworkers often experienced isolation and resentment from their adult service coworkers, the service was perceived to be difficult to access and premises not to be youth friendly and communication and engagement with external agencies and service providers was perceived to be poor.

Conclusions. The choice of service model, inadequate consultation with stakeholders and inadequate promotion of the service contributed to its failure to reach early expectations. Because of these and other issues, including difficulties distinguishing between early psychosis and non-psychosis, a decision was made to restructure youth services and

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Public accounting firms provide a necessary and important service for rural and regional areas. However, the provision of high-quality services is hindered by a number of factors. This paper reports the findings from a large-scale survey of professional accounting firm practitioners located in rural and regional Australia, identifying factors causing concerns and tensions and quantifying their scope and importance. Prominent concerns and tensions identified include adverse effects arising from the employment market, communications technology developments and legislation such as the Corporate Law Economic Reform Program (Audit Reform and Corporate Disclosure) Act 2004 and the Financial Services Reform Act 2001.

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O Município de Marabá- PA, situado na região Amazônica, sudeste do Estado do Pará, sofre anualmente com eventos de enchentes, ocasionados pelo aumento periódico do rio Tocantins e pela situação de vulnerabilidade da população que reside em áreas de risco. A defesa civil estadual e municipal anualmente planeja e prepara equipes para ações de defesa no município. Nesta fase o monitoramento e previsão de eventos de enchentes são importantes. Portanto, com o objetivo de diminuir erros nas previsões hidrológicas para o Município de Marabá, desenvolveu-se um modelo estocástico para previsão de nível do rio Tocantins, baseado na metodologia de Box e Jenkins. Utilizou os dados de níveis diários observados nas estações hidrológicas de Marabá e Carolina e Conceição do Araguaia da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), do período de 01/12/ 2008 a 31/03/2011. Efetuou-se o ajustamento de três modelos (Mt, Nt e Yt), através de diferentes aplicativos estatísticos: o SAS e o Gretl, usando diferentes interpretações do comportamento das séries para gerar as equações dos modelos. A principal diferença entre os aplicativos é que no SAS usa o modelo de função de transferência na modelagem. Realizou-se uma classificação da variabilidade do nível do rio, através da técnica dos Quantis para o período de 1972 a 2011, examinando-se apenas as categorizações de níveis ACIMA e MUITO ACIMA do normal. Para análise de impactos socioeconômicos foram usados os dados das ações da Defesa Civil Estado do Pará nas cheias de 2009 e 2011. Os resultados mostraram que o número de eventos de cheias com níveis MUITO ACIMA do normal, geralmente, podem estar associados a eventos de La Niña. Outro resultado importante: os modelos gerados simularam muito bem o nível do rio para o período de sete dias (01/04/2011 a 07/04/2011). O modelo multivariado Nt (com pequenos erros) representou o comportamento da série original, subestimando os valores reais nos dias 3, 4 e 5 de abril de 2011, com erro máximo de 0,28 no dia 4. O modelo univariado (Yt) teve bons resultados nas simulações com erros absolutos em torno de 0,12 m. O modelo com menor erro absoluto (0,08m) para o mesmo período foi o modelo Mt, desenvolvido pelo aplicativo SAS, que interpreta a série original como sendo não linear e não estacionária. A análise quantitativa dos impactos fluviométricos, ocorridos nas enchentes de 2009 e 2011 na cidade de Marabá, revelou em média que mais de 4 mil famílias sofrem com estes eventos, implicado em gastos financeiros elevados. Logo, conclui-se que os modelos de previsão de níveis são importantes ferramentas que a Defesa Civil, utiliza no planejamento e preparo de ações preventivas para o município de Marabá.

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

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Background: Concerns exist about the end of life care
that people with intellectual disabilities receive. This population
are seldom referred to palliative care services and
inadequate data sets exist about their place of death.
Aim: To scope the extent of service provision to people
with intellectual disabilities at the end of life by specialist
palliative care and intellectual disability services in one
region of the United Kingdom.
Methods: As part of a larger doctoral study a regional survey
took place of a total sample (n=66) of specialist palliative
care and intellectual disability services using a postal
questionnaire containing forty items. The questionnaire
was informed by the literature and consultation with an
expert reference group. Data were analysed using SPSS to
obtain descriptive statistics.
Results: A total response rate from services of 71.2%
(n=47) was generated. Findings showed a range of experience
among services in providing end of life care to people
with intellectual disabilities in the previous five years, but
general hospitals were reported the most common place of
death. A lack of accessible information on end of life care
for people with learning disabilities was apparent. A few
services (n=14) had a policy to support this population to
make decisions about their care or had used adapted Breaking
Bad News guidelines (n=5) to meet their additional
needs. Both services recognised the value of partnership
working in assessing and meeting the holistic needs of
people with intellectual disabilities at end of life.
Conclusions: A range of experience in caring for people
with intellectual disabilities was present across services,
but more emphasis is required on adapting communication
for this population to facilitate them to participate in their
care. These findings could have international significance
given that studies in other countries have highlighted a
need to widen access to palliative care for this group of
people.

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Listening to people, especially those who are poor, and involving them in policy making and decisions about service delivery processes are logical steps in building better services and improving policies aimed at poverty alleviation. This case describes a facilitated advocacy that helped to negotiate and support a role for poor people who farm and fish, to contribute recommendations for changes in services and policies that impact on their lives. The national Government of India’s Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying and the Indian Council for Agricultural Research, both in the capital Delhi, have been linking with farmers and fishers and state government officials in the eastern states of Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal, in partnership with the STREAM Initiative of the intergovernmental Network of Aquaculture Centers in Asia Pacific and with the support of the UK Government Department for International Development, Natural resources Systems Program supporting farmers to have a voice(13 p.)

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Background: Increasing emphasis is being placed on the economics of health care service delivery - including home-based palliative care. Aim: This paper analyzes resource utilization and costs of a shared-care demonstration project in rural Ontario (Canada) from the public health care system's perspective. Design: To provide enhanced end-of-life care, the shared-care approach ensured exchange of expertise and knowledge and coordination of services in line with the understood goals of care. Resource utilization and costs were tracked over the 15 month study period from January 2005 to March 2006. Results: Of the 95 study participants (average age 71 years), 83 had a cancer diagnosis (87%); the non-cancer diagnoses (12 patients, 13%) included mainly advanced heart diseases and COPD. Community Care Access Centre and Enhanced Palliative Care Team-based homemaking and specialized nursing services were the most frequented offerings, followed by equipment/transportation services and palliative care consults for pain and symptom management. Total costs for all patient-related services (in 2007 CAN) were 1,625,658.07 - or 17,112.19 per patient/117.95 per patient day. Conclusion: While higher than expenditures previously reported for a cancer-only population in an urban Ontario setting, the costs were still within the parameters of the US Medicare Hospice Benefits, on a par with the per diem funding assigned for long-term care homes and lower than both average alternate level of care and hospital costs within the Province of Ontario. The study results may assist service planners in the appropriate allocation of resources and service packaging to meet the complex needs of palliative care populations. © 2012 The Author(s).