Regional responses to recession:the role of the West Midlands regional taskforce

Bailey D. and Berkeley N. Regional responses to recession: the role of the West Midlands Regional Taskforce, Regional Studies. Regional taskforces were set up across the English regions in late 2008 in response to the most severe recession since the Second World War. This paper examines the role of one such body, the West Midlands Regional Taskforce, as an example of regional response to recession, and offers potential lessons for the future in dealing with such situations. In so doing it reflects on the contested concept of regional 'resilience' and its relevance for policy actions at the regional level. Understanding how the region responded in this way could help in maintaining a 'permanent capacity' to deal with shocks, especially in the context of the abolition of regional development agencies (RDAs) in England from 2012 and their replacement with local enterprise partnerships (LEPs). © 2014 © 2014 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.

Governance and the Capacity to Manage Resilience in Regional Social-Ecological Systems

The sustainability of regional development can be usefully explored through several different lenses. In situations in which uncertainties and change are key features of the ecological landscape and social organization, critical factors for sustainability are resilience, the capacity to cope and adapt, and the conservation of sources of innovation and renewal. However, interventions in social-ecological systems with the aim of altering resilience immediately confront issues of governance. Who decides what should be made resilient to what? For whom is resilience to be managed, and for what purpose? In this paper we draw on the insights from a diverse set of case studies from around the world in which members of the Resilience Alliance have observed or engaged with sustainability problems at regional scales. Our central question is: How do certain attributes of governance function in society to enhance the capacity to manage resilience? Three specific propositions were explored: ( 1) participation builds trust, and deliberation leads to the shared understanding needed to mobilize and self-organize; ( 2) polycentric and multilayered institutions improve the fit between knowledge, action, and social-ecological contexts in ways that allow societies to respond more adaptively at appropriate levels; and ( 3) accountable authorities that also pursue just distributions of benefits and involuntary risks enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups and society as a whole. Some support was found for parts of all three propositions. In exploring the sustainability of regional social-ecological systems, we are usually faced with a set of ecosystem goods and services that interact with a collection of users with different technologies, interests, and levels of power. In this situation in our roles as analysts, facilitators, change agents, or stakeholders, we not only need to ask: The resilience of what, to what? We must also ask: For whom?

Governance and the Capacity to Manage Resilience in Regional Social-Ecological Systems

The sustainability of regional development can be usefully explored through several different lenses. In situations in which uncertainties and change are key features of the ecological landscape and social organization, critical factors for sustainability are resilience, the capacity to cope and adapt, and the conservation of sources of innovation and renewal. However, interventions in social-ecological systems with the aim of altering resilience immediately confront issues of governance. Who decides what should be made resilient to what? For whom is resilience to be managed, and for what purpose? In this paper we draw on the insights from a diverse set of case studies from around the world in which members of the Resilience Alliance have observed or engaged with sustainability problems at regional scales. Our central question is: How do certain attributes of governance function in society to enhance the capacity to manage resilience? Three specific propositions were explored: ( 1) participation builds trust, and deliberation leads to the shared understanding needed to mobilize and self-organize; ( 2) polycentric and multilayered institutions improve the fit between knowledge, action, and social-ecological contexts in ways that allow societies to respond more adaptively at appropriate levels; and ( 3) accountable authorities that also pursue just distributions of benefits and involuntary risks enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups and society as a whole. Some support was found for parts of all three propositions. In exploring the sustainability of regional social-ecological systems, we are usually faced with a set of ecosystem goods and services that interact with a collection of users with different technologies, interests, and levels of power. In this situation in our roles as analysts, facilitators, change agents, or stakeholders, we not only need to ask: The resilience of what, to what? We must also ask: For whom?

Resources for security and stability? The politics of regional cooperation on the Mekong, 1957-2001

This article tells about the relationship between resource politics and security in international relations. Using the Mekong River Basin as its case study, the article examines the place of resource and development issues in attempts to develop regional institutions. The question of whether a resource development regime with apparently low productivity in terms of technical output, but high levels of resilience and longevity, should be considered a failure or not, is considered. This question is examined within the broader context of Southeast Asian politics during the First, Second, and Third Indochina conflicts as well as the post-cold war era. The article argues that survival and a capacity to change to meet the challenges of extreme broader events are clear evidence of regime success. From this standpoint, the article explores ways in which the Mekong resource regime is linked to more general concerns for political security and stability and may in fact reflect political concerns for subregional neighborhood maintenance.

Self-esteem, assertiveness and resilience in adolescents institutionalized

The institutionalization of children and adolescents has been an increasingly visible problem in modern society. Unfavourable socio-economic conditions have been joining the behavior problems and school absenteeism. When the family fails in its competence for education, social security or the Court withdraws the child or adolescent to a host institution. The aim of this research was to characterize self-esteem, assertiveness and resilience of institutionalized adolescents in the northern region of Portugal and to establish associations with these dependent variables and gender, scholar level and duration of the institutionalization. For the purpose of this study a wider questionnaire was carried out, and validated with a smaller group. It was a transversal study following a predominantly quantitative methodology, with a convenience sample. The sample included 101 adolescents (55 female and 46 males) from eight institutions, aged between 11 to 21 years old (average 15.45). For self-esteem the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965), already validate for Portuguese adolescents, was used. For assertiveness and resilience it was applied the Global Evaluation Scale of Assertiveness and the Global Evaluation Scale of Resilience (Jardim & Pereira, 2006) we previously adapted and validated for adolescents. Collected data was introduced in a SPSS database. A descriptive analysis was done to characterize the sample concerning all the variables. To establish associations between individual factors and dependent variables t test, correlations and non-parametric test were applied. Results indicated a relatively low self-esteem (28.03), with girls having a lower value than boys, without significant differences. No correlations were found between self-esteem and the time in the institution. Assertiveness of the sample is average (23.97) and higher for girls than boys, with a positive significant correlation with the scholar grade. Also the resilience is average (25.97), having girls a little lower mean than boys and no significant differences or correlations were found.

The varieties of regional change

Many metropolitan areas have experienced extreme boom-bust cycles over the past century. Some places, like Detroit, grew enormously as industrial powerhouses and then declined, while other older cities, like Boston, seem quite resilient. Education does a reasonable job of explaining urban resilience. In this paper, we present a simple model where education increases the level of entrepreneurship. In this model, human capital spillovers occur at the city level because skilled workers produce more product varieties and thereby increase labor demand. We decompose empirically the causes of the connection between skills and urban success and find that skills are associated with growth in productivity or entrepreneurship, not with growth in quality of life, at least outside of the West. We also find that skills seem to have depressed housing supply growth in the West, but not in other regions, which supports the view that educated residents in that region have fought for tougher land-use controls. We also present evidence that skills have had a disproportionately large impact on unemployment during the current recession.

Building adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change in the water sector in Cape Verde

Purpose of the evaluation This is a scheduled standard mid-term evaluation (MTR) of a UNDP implemented GEF LDCF co-financed project. It is conducted by a team of an international and a national independent evaluator. The objective of the MTR, as set out in the Terms of Reference (TORs; Annex 1), is to provide an independent analysis of the progress of the project so far. The MTR aims to:  identify potential project design problems,  assess progress towards the achievement of the project objective and outcomes,  identify and document lessons learned (including lessons that might improve design and implementation of other projects, including UNDP-GEF supported projects), and  make recommendations regarding specific actions that should be taken to improve the project. The MTR is intended to assess signs of project success or failure and identify the necessary changes to be made. The project commenced its implementation in the first half of 2010 with the recruitment of project staff. According to the updated project plan, it is due to close in July 201410 with operations scaling down in December 2013 due to funding limits. Because of a slow implementation start, the mid-term evaluation was delayed to July 201311 The intended target audience of the evaluation are:  The project team and decision makers in the INGRH  The GEF and UNFCCC Operational Focal Points  The project partners and beneficiaries  UNDP in Cape Verde as well as the regional and headquarter (HQ) office levels  The GEF Secretariat.

Cities, skills, and regional change

One approach to urban areas emphasizes the existence of certain immutable relationships, such as Zipf's or Gibrat's Law. An alternative view is that urban changereflects individual responses to changing tastes or technologies. This paper examinesalmost 200 years of regional change in the U.S. and finds that few, if any, growth relationships remain constant, including Gibrat's Law. Education does a reasonable jobof explaining urban resilience in recent decades, but does not seem to predict countygrowth a century ago. After reviewing this evidence, we present and estimate a simple model of regional change, where education increases the level of entrepreneurship.Human capital spillovers occur at the city level because skilled workers produce moreproduct varieties and thereby increase labor demand. We find that skills are associatedwith growth in productivity or entrepreneurship, not with growth in quality of life, atleast outside of the West. We also find that skills seem to have depressed housing supplygrowth in the West, but not in other regions, which supports the view that educatedresidents in that region have fought for tougher land-use controls. We also present evidence that skills have had a disproportionately large impact on unemployment duringthe current recession.

Modeling and Mapping Golden-winged Warbler Abundance to Improve Regional Conservation Strategies

Conservation planning requires identifying pertinent habitat factors and locating geographic locations where land management may improve habitat conditions for high priority species. I derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundance for the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera), a species of high conservation concern, using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at multiple spatial scales. My aim was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create a predictive abundance map for purposes of conservation planning for the Golden-winged Warbler. My models indicated a substantial influence of landscape conditions, including strong positive associations with total forest composition within the landscape. However, many of the associations I observed were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents; for instance, I found Golden-winged Warblers negatively associated with several measures of edge habitat. No single spatial scale dominated, indicating that this species is responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. I found Golden-winged Warbler abundance was negatively related with Blue-winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) abundance. I also observed a north-south spatial trend suggestive of a regional climate effect that was not previously noted for this species. The map of predicted abundance indicated a large area of concentrated abundance in west-central Wisconsin, with smaller areas of high abundance along the northern periphery of the Prairie Hardwood Transition. This map of predicted abundance compared favorably with independent evaluation data sets and can thus be used to inform regional planning efforts devoted to conserving this species.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience

Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of Mälaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience.

Regional hydroclimatic variability and Brazil's 2001 energy crisis

Purpose - This paper seeks to address the issue of persistent and widespread drought conditions during 2000 and 2001, which were the apparent cause of the decline of water levels in the reservoirs of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants. Design/methodology/approach - This issue is addressed here through a case study of the hydroclimatology of the Paraíba river basin, in Southeast Brazil, home to four large multi-purpose operational reservoirs. Findings - The data analysis shows that neither changes in the frequency nor magnitude of extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) nor in annual rainfall amounts can be detected from the existing climate record. The explanation is consistent with the fact that the terrestrial water and energy cycles are tightly, and non-linearly, coupled through evapotranspiration. Research limitations/implications - Therefore small change in the seasonality of rainfall can have a significant impact on the basin's overall hydrologic regime, and thus on the availability of water resources. Originality/value - Often, adaptation and resilience to climate variability are discussed in the context of catastrophic events such as floods and droughts. This study suggests that a different type of impacts, those associated with subtle, yet persistent changes of seasonality in the terrestrial water cycle, cannot be ignored in studies of long-term sustainability of water resources. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Study on the vulnerability and resilience of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Caribbean Small Island Developing States are considered to be particularly vulnerable to external shocks that stem from changes in climate and the increase in frequency and magnitude of natural disasters. Quantification of the extent of vulnerability of these islands may be measured by the use of several indices including the Economic Vulnerability Index (EcVI), the Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), the Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). The capacity to build resilience may be measured by the Economic Resilience Index (ERI). Of importance in the measurement of vulnerability and resilience is the impact on women and children. In order to reduce vulnerability and promote resilience, Caribbean SIDS are urged to develop adaptation strategies. Such strategies include the conduct of indepth studies on natural environmental impacts specifically in terms of biophysical and socio economic impacts. It is also necessary to review best practices in terms of preparedness, resilience building and climate change adaptation in other countries such as Cuba. Addressing vulnerability and building resilience requires appropriate information and data and priority should be given to addressing data gaps. It would also be expedient to classify vulnerability and resilience as regional public goods wherein one country’s benefit does not compromise another country’s ability to benefit. Finally, it is important to acknowledge that vulnerability is, in part, is a function of gender so that indicators need to be disaggregated to reflect the country-specific gendered socioeconomic situation.