The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

A redistricting problem applied to meter reading in power distribution networks

The capacitated redistricting problem (CRP) has the objective to redefine, under a given criterion, an initial set of districts of an urban area represented by a geographic network. Each node in the network has different types of demands and each district has a limited capacity. Real-world applications consider more than one criteria in the design of the districts, leading to a multicriteria CRP (MCRP). Examples are found in political districting, sales design, street sweeping, garbage collection and mail delivery. This work addresses the MCRP applied to power meter reading and two criteria are considered: compactness and homogeneity of districts. The proposed solution framework is based on a greedy randomized adaptive search procedure and multicriteria scalarization techniques to approximate the Pareto frontier. The computational experiments show the effectiveness of the method for a set of randomly generated networks and for a real-world network extracted from the city of São Paulo. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

House Judiciary I Judicial Redistricting Subcommittee, HR 392 : [report], 81st General Assembly.

Cover title.

Report of the Redistricting Process Review Commission.

"January 8, 1999."

P.L. 94-171 redistricting data from the year 2000 census : the view from the states.

Mode of access: Internet.

Optimal redistricting under geographical constraints: Why "pack and crack" does not work

We show that optimal partisan redistricting with geographical constraints is a computationally intractable (NP-complete) problem. In particular, even when voter's preferences are deterministic, a solution is generally not obtained by concentrating opponent's supporters in \unwinnable" districts ("packing") and spreading one's own supporters evenly among the other districts in order to produce many slight marginal wins ("cracking").

Geographic Information Systems-Based Approaches to Study Congressional Redistricting in the United States

The ability for the citizens of a nation to determine their own representation has long been regarded as one of the most critical objectives of any electoral system. Without having the assurance of equality in representation, the fundamental nature and operation of the political system is severely undermined. Given the centuries of institutional reforms and population changes in the American system, Congressional Redistricting stands as an institution whereby this promise of effective representation can either be fulfilled or denied. The broad set of processes that encapsulate Congres- sional Redistricting have been discussed, experimented, and modified to achieve clear objectives and have long been understood to be important. Questions remain about how the dynamics which link all of these processes operate and what impact the real- ities of Congressional Redistricting hold for representation in the American system. This dissertation examines three aspects of how Congressional Redistricting in the Untied States operates in accordance with the principle of “One Person, One Vote.” By utilizing data and data analysis techniques of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this dissertation seeks to address how Congressional Redistricting impacts the principle of one person, one vote from the standpoint of legislator accountability, redistricting institutions, and the promise of effective minority representation.

Carolyn Banner

Carolyn had a Bachelor of Science in Education degree from Langston University and a Master of Science degree in Early Childhood Development from the University of Minnesota. In 1959 Carolyn came to Lincoln as acting principal of the laboratory Elementary School and Supervisor of Elementary Student Teaching. She nurtured and taught hundreds of Lincoln’s students to be the finest, most qualified teachers in the country. Once retired she was able to enjoy the many awards that she received through out her years. The awards she received were citations, and honors: AAUW Woman of Achievement Award, and the MUATE Outstanding Teacher Educator Award. She was elected the first Black President of AAUW in 1965. She was appointed to the Mayor’s Census and Redistricting Committee in 1981. On June 21st, 1985 Mayor George Hartsfield declared that day as “Carolyn Banner Day” in Jefferson City. Carolyn Banner retired from Lincoln University in July 1985.

A computational approach to unbiased districting

In the context of discrete districting problems with geographical constraints, we demonstrate that determining an (ex post) unbiased districting, which requires that the number of representatives of a party should be proportional to its share of votes, turns out to be a computationally intractable (NP-complete) problem. This raises doubts as to whether an independent jury will be able to come up with a “fair” redistricting plan in case of a large population, that is, there is no guarantee for finding an unbiased districting (even if such exists). We also show that, in the absence of geographical constraints, an unbiased districting can be implemented by a simple alternating-move game among the two parties.

Voting with their feet: Migration, partisanship, and party-safe elections in Florida

Political scientists have long noted that Congressional elections are often uncompetitive, often extremely so. Many scholars argue that the cause lies in the partisan redistricting of Congressional districts, or “gerrymandering”. Other scholars emphasize polarization created by a fragmented news media, or the candidate choices made by a more ideological primary electorate. All these explanations identify the cause of party-safe elections in institutions of various kinds. This dissertation, by contrast, presents a structural explanation of uncompetitive elections. My theory is that population composition and patterns of migration are significant causes and predictors of election results in Florida. I test this theory empirically by comparing the predictions from four hypotheses against aggregate data, using the county as the unit of analysis. The first hypothesis is that Florida can be divided into clearly distinguishable, persistent partisan sections. This hypothesis is confirmed. The second hypothesis is that Florida voters have become increasingly partisan over time. This hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis is that the degree of migration into a county predicts how that county will vote. This hypothesis is partially confirmed, for the migration effect appears to have waned over time. The last hypothesis is that the degree of religiosity of a county population is a predictor of how that county will vote. This hypothesis is also supported by the results of statistical analysis. By identifying the structural causes of party-safe elections, this dissertation not only broadens our understanding of elections in Florida, but also sheds light on the current polarization in American politics.

Fixed-boundary constituencies and the principle of equal representation in Ireland

The process of constituency boundary revision in Ireland, designed to satisfy what is perceived as a rigid requirement that a uniform deputy-population ratio be maintained across constituencies, has traditionally consumed a great deal of the time of politicians and officials. For almost two decades after a High Court ruling in 1961, the process was a political one, was highly contentious, and was marked by serious allegations of ministerial gerrymandering. The introduction in 1979 of constituency commissions made up of officials neutralised, for the most part, charges that the system had become too politicised, but it continued the process of micro-management of constituency boundaries. This article suggests that the continuing problems caused by this system – notably, the permanently changing nature of constituency boundaries and resulting difficulties of geographical identification – could be resolved by reversion to the procedure that is normal in proportional representation systems: periodic post-census allocation of seats to constituencies whose boundaries are based on those of recognised local government units and which are stable over time. This reform, replacing the principle of redistricting by the principle of reapportionment, would result in more recognisable constituencies, more predictable boundary trajectories over time, and a more efficient, fairer, and speedier process of revision.