Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Increased reproductive success in older female red kangaroos and the impact of harvesting

Wildlife harvesting has a long history in Australia, including obvious examples of overexploitation. Not surprisingly, there is scepticism that commercial harvesting can be undertaken sustainably. Kangaroo harvesting has been challenged regularly at Administrative Appeals Tribunals and elsewhere over the past three decades. Initially, the concern from conservation groups was sustainability of the harvest. This has been addressed through regular, direct monitoring that now spans > 30 years and a conservative harvest regime with a low risk of overharvest in the face of uncertainty. Opposition to the harvest now continues from animal rights groups whose concerns have shifted from overall harvest sustainability to side effects such as animal welfare, and changes to community structure, genetic composition and population age structure. Many of these concerns are speculative and difficult to address, requiring expensive data. One concern is that older females are the more successful breeders and teach their daughters optimal habitat and diet selection. The lack of older animals in a harvested population may reduce the fitness of the remaining individuals; implying population viability would also be compromised. This argument can be countered by the persistence of populations under harvesting without any obvious impairment to reproduction. Nevertheless, an interesting question is how age influences reproductive output. In this study, data collected from a number of red kangaroo populations across eastern Australia indicate that the breeding success of older females is up to 7-20% higher than that of younger females. This effect is smaller than that of body condition and the environment, which can increase breeding success by up to 30% and 60% respectively. Average age of mature females in a population may be reduced from 9 to 6 years old, resulting in a potential reduction in breeding success of 3-4%. This appears to be offset in harvested populations by improved condition of females from a reduction in kangaroo density. There is an important recommendation for management. The best insurance policy against overharvest and unwanted side effects is not research, which could be never-ending. Rather, it is a harvest strategy that includes safeguards against uncertainty such as harvest reserves, conservative quotas and regular monitoring. Research is still important in fine tuning that strategy and is most usefully incorporated as adaptive management where it can address the key questions on how populations respond to harvesting.

Should managed populations be monitored every year?

We often need to estimate the size of wild populations to determine the appropriate management action, for example, to set a harvest quota. Monitoring is usually planned under the assumption that it must be carried out at fixed intervals in time, typically annually, before the harvest quota is set. However, monitoring can be very expensive, and we should weigh the cost of monitoring against the improvement that it makes in decision making. A less costly alternative to monitoring annually is to predict the population size using a population model and information from previous surveys. In this paper, the problem of monitoring frequency is posed within a decision-theory framework. We discover that a monitoring regime that varies according to the state of the system call outperform fixed-interval monitoring This idea is illustrated using data for a red kangaroo (Macropits rufus) population in South Australia. Whether or not one should monitor in a given year is dependent on the estimated population density in the previous year, the uncertainty in that population estimate, and past rainfall. We discover that monitoring is-important when a model-based prediction of population density is very uncertain. This may occur if monitoring has not taken place for several years, or if rainfall has been above average. Monitoring is also important when prior information suggests that the population is near a critical threshold in population abundance. However, monitoring is less important when the optimal management action would not be altered by new information.

Fencing artificial waterpoints failed to influence density and distribution of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus)

Provision of artificial waterpoints in Australian rangelands has resulted in an increase in the range and density of kangaroos. At high densities, kangaroos can inhibit vegetation regeneration, particularly in some protected areas where harvesting is prohibited. Fencing off waterpoints has been proposed to limit these impacts. Our aim was to determine whether fencing off waterpoints during a drought (when kangaroos would be especially water-limited) would influence the density and distribution of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus). Two waterpoints were fenced within the first 6 months of the 27-month study and a further two waterpoints were kept unfenced as controls in Idalia National Park, western Queensland. We estimated kangaroo densities around waterpoints from walked line-transect counts, and their grazing distribution from dung-pellet counts. Fencing off waterpoints failed to influence either the density or distribution up to 4 km from the waterpoints. Our results indicate that food availability, rather than the location of waterpoints, determines kangaroo distribution. Few areas in the rangelands are beyond kangaroos' convenient reach from permanent waterpoints. Therefore, fencing off waterpoints without explicitly considering the spatial context in relation to other available water sources will fail to achieve vegetation regeneration.

Ultrastructure, osmotic tolerance, glycerol toxicity and cryopreservation of caput and cauda epididymidal kangaroo spermatozoa

The aim of the present study was to compare cryopreservation, osmotic tolerance and glycerol toxicity between mature and immature epididymal kangaroo spermatozoa to investigate whether the lack of cryopreservation success of cauda epididymidal spermatozoa may be related to the increased complexity of the sperm ultrastructure acquired during epididymal transit. Caput and cauda epididymidal spermatozoa were recovered from red-necked wallabies (RNW; Macropus rufogriseus) and eastern grey kangaroos (EGK; M. giganteus). In Experiment 1, caput and cauda epididymidal spermatozoa were frozen and thawed using a standard cryopreservation procedure in Triscitrate buffer with or without 20% glycerol. Although cryopreservation of caput epididymidal spermatozoa resulted in a significant increase in sperm plasma membrane damage, they were more tolerant of the procedure than spermatozoa recovered from the cauda epididymidis (P< 0.05). In Experiment 2, caput and cauda epididymidal EGK spermatozoa were diluted into phosphate-buffered saline media of varying osmolarity and their osmotic tolerance determined. Plasma membranes of caput epididymidal spermatozoa were more tolerant of hypo-osmotic media than were cauda epididymidal spermatozoa ( P< 0.05). In Experiment 3, caput and cauda epididymidal RNW spermatozoa were incubated in Tris-citrate buffer with and without 20% glycerol at 35 and 4 degrees C to examine the cytotoxic effects of glycerol. At both temperatures, caput epididymidal spermatozoa showed less plasma membrane damage compared with cauda epididymidal spermatozoa when exposed to 20% glycerol ( P< 0.05). These experiments clearly indicate that epididymal maturation of kangaroo spermatozoa results in a decreased ability to withstand the physiological stresses associated with cryopreservation.

Infra-red pupil detection for use in a face recognition system

This paper presents a new method of eye localisation and face segmentation for use in a face recognition system. By using two near infrared light sources, we have shown that the face can be coarsely segmented, and the eyes can be accurately located, increasing the accuracy of the face localisation and improving the overall speed of the system. The system is able to locate both eyes within 25% of the eye-to-eye distance in over 96% of test cases.

Thermally activated seawater neutralised red mud used for the removal of arsenate, vanadate and molybdate from aqueous solutions.

The effectiveness of using thermally activated hydrotalcite materials has been investigated for the removal of arsenate, vanadate, and molybdate in individual and mixed solutions. Results show that increasing the Mg,Al ratio to 4:1 causes an increase in the percentage of anions removed from solution. The order of affinity of the three anions analysed in this investigation is arsenate, vanadate, and molybdate. By comparisons with several synthetic hydrotalcite materials, the hydrotalcite structure in the seawater neutralised red mud (SWN-RM) has been determined to consist of magnesium and aluminium with a ratio between 3.5:1 and 4:1. Thermally activated seawater neutralised red mud removes at least twice the concentration of anionic species than thermally activated red mud alone, due to the formation of 40 to 60 % Bayer hydrotalcite during the neutralisation process.

Red clover (Trifolium pratense) isoflavones and serum homocysteine in premenopausal women : a pilot study

Background: There is limited information on the effect of isoflavones on homocysteine concentrations, a risk factor for a number of chronic diseases. Methods: Twenty-three premenopausal women participated in a double-blind, randomized, parallel study for four menstrual cycles. Subjects consumed either placebo or purified red clover (Trifolium pratense) isoflavone (86mg/day) tablets. Blood samples were collected weekly during cycles 1, 3, and 4 for determination of serum folate and total homocysteine concentrations. Dietary intake was monitored monthly. Results: Concentrations of folate and homocysteine in serum did not change significantly in either group, and there were no significant differences observed between the follicular and luteal phases of the menstrual cycle. The participants' dietary records indicated that nutrient intake was constant, and compliance was confirmed by analysis of urinary isoflavone concentrations and tablet counts in returned containers. Conclusions: These results suggest that in the absence of any dietary modification, supplementation with purified isoflavones that are predominantly methoxylated has no effect on serum homocysteine or folate in premenopausal women.