Recurrence interval statistics of cellular automaton seismicity models

The recurrence interval statistics for regional seismicity follows a universal distribution function, independent of the tectonic setting or average rate of activity (Corral, 2004). The universal function is a modified gamma distribution with power-law scaling of recurrence intervals shorter than the average rate of activity and exponential decay for larger intervals. We employ the method of Corral (2004) to examine the recurrence statistics of a range of cellular automaton earthquake models. The majority of models has an exponential distribution of recurrence intervals, the same as that of a Poisson process. One model, the Olami-Feder-Christensen automaton, has recurrence statistics consistent with regional seismicity for a certain range of the conservation parameter of that model. For conservation parameters in this range, the event size statistics are also consistent with regional seismicity. Models whose dynamics are dominated by characteristic earthquakes do not appear to display universality of recurrence statistics.

Sudden cardiac arrest associated with early repolarization.

BACKGROUND: Early repolarization is a common electrocardiographic finding that is generally considered to be benign. Its potential to cause cardiac arrhythmias has been hypothesized from experimental studies, but it is not known whether there is a clinical association with sudden cardiac arrest. METHODS: We reviewed data from 206 case subjects at 22 centers who were resuscitated after cardiac arrest due to idiopathic ventricular fibrillation and assessed the prevalence of electrocardiographic early repolarization. The latter was defined as an elevation of the QRS-ST junction of at least 0.1 mV from baseline in the inferior or lateral lead, manifested as QRS slurring or notching. The control group comprised 412 subjects without heart disease who were matched for age, sex, race, and level of physical activity. Follow-up data that included the results of monitoring with an implantable defibrillator were obtained for all case subjects. RESULTS: Early repolarization was more frequent in case subjects with idiopathic ventricular fibrillation than in control subjects (31% vs. 5%, P<0.001). Among case subjects, those with early repolarization were more likely to be male and to have a history of syncope or sudden cardiac arrest during sleep than those without early repolarization. In eight subjects, the origin of ectopy that initiated ventricular arrhythmias was mapped to sites concordant with the localization of repolarization abnormalities. During a mean (+/-SD) follow-up of 61+/-50 months, defibrillator monitoring showed a higher incidence of recurrent ventricular fibrillation in case subjects with a repolarization abnormality than in those without such an abnormality (hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 3.5; P=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with a history of idiopathic ventricular fibrillation, there is an increased prevalence of early repolarization.

Multifractality, stickiness, and recurrence-time statistics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Predictors of local recurrence after treatment of ductal carcinoma in situ - A meta-analysis

lBACKGROUND. Management of patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a dilemma, as mastectomy provides nearly a 100% cure rate but at the expense of physical and psychologic morbidity. It would be helpful if we could predict which patients with DCIS are at sufficiently high risk of local recurrence after conservative surgery (CS) alone to warrant postoperative radiotherapy (RT) and which patients are at sufficient risk of local recurrence after CS + RT to warrant mastectomy. The authors reviewed the published studies and identified the factors that may be predictive of local recurrence after management by mastectomy, CS alone, or CS + RT. METHODS. The authors examined patient, tumor, and treatment factors as potential predictors for local recurrence and estimated the risks of recurrence based on a review of published studies. They examined the effects of patient factors (age at diagnosis and family history), tumor factors (sub-type of DCIS, grade, tumor size, necrosis, and margins), and treatment (mastectomy, CS alone, and CS + RT). The 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the recurrence rates for each of the studies were calculated for subtype, grade, and necrosis, using the exact binomial; the summary recurrence rate and 95% CI for each treatment category were calculated by quantitative meta-analysis using the fixed and random effects models applied to proportions. RESULTS, Meta-analysis yielded a summary recurrence rate of 22.5% (95% CI = 16.9-28.2) for studies employing CS alone, 8.9% (95% CI = 6.8-11.0) for CS + RT, and 1.4% (95% CI = 0.7-2.1) for studies involving mastectomy alone. These summary figures indicate a clear and statistically significant separation, and therefore outcome, between the recurrence rates of each treatment category, despite the likelihood that the patients who underwent CS alone were likely to have had smaller, possibly low grade lesions with clear margins. The patients with risk factors of presence of necrosis, high grade cytologic features, or comedo subtype were found to derive the greatest improvement in local control with the addition of RT to CS. Local recurrence among patients treated by CS alone is approximately 20%, and one-half of the recurrences are invasive cancers. For most patients, RT reduces the risk of recurrence after CS alone by at least 50%. The differences in local recurrence between CS alone and CS + RT are most apparent for those patients with high grade tumors or DCIS with necrosis, or of the comedo subtype, or DCIS with close or positive surgical margins. CONCLUSIONS, The authors recommend that radiation be added to CS if patients with DCIS who also have the risk factors for local recurrence choose breast conservation over mastectomy. The patients who may be suitable for CS alone outside of a clinical trial may be those who have low grade lesions with little or no necrosis, and with clear surgical margins. Use of the summary statistics when discussing outcomes with patients may help the patient make treatment decisions. Cancer 1999;85:616-28. (C) 1999 American Cancer Society.

Survival and Recurrence in Nonmycosis Fungoides Primary Cutaneous Lymphoma

Purpose: To evaluate overall and relapse-free survival (RFS) in patients with nonmycosis fungoides (non-MF) primary cutaneous lymphoma (PCL). Methods: Thirty-eight patients with PCL excluding cases of MF treated between 1993 and 2006 were analyzed retrospectively. Survival statistics were estimated by the methods of Kaplan and Meier, and univariate and multivariate significance testing were performed by Cox regression analysis. Results: The median follow-up was 34.6 months (range, 2-138.3 months). The overall survival for the entire study population, at 5 and 10 years, was 97% and 78%, respectively. The RFS for the entire study population, at 5 and 10 years, was 30% and 22%, respectively. For those who received radiotherapy (RT) as a component of their initial therapy, the RFS at 5 and 10 years was 48% and 36%, respectively. Among those receiving RT who relapsed, the site of relapse was out-of-field in 82% of the cases. In our multivariate analysis, only RT as a component of the initial therapy and the absence of bulky disease had a statistically significant improvement in RFS (P = 0.01 and < 0.01, respectively). Conclusion: RT improves the local control and RFS of patients with non-MF PCL.

Long-Term Recurrence of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer after Topical Methylaminolevulinate Photodynamic Therapy in a Dermato-Oncology Department

BACKGROUND: Most available studies on the efficacy of topical photodynamic therapy focus on short-to medium-term results. Long-term data are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term efficacy of photodynamic therapy with topical methylaminolevulinate to treat Bowen's disease and basal cell carcinoma in the clinical practice setting of a dermato-oncology department. METHODS: The study included patients diagnosed with Bowen's disease or basal cell carcinoma, and who received photodynamic therapy from 2004 to 2008. Treatment protocol and clinical follow-up were standardized. The primary endpoint was clinically observed recurrence in a previous photodynamic therapy-treated area. Descriptive and survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 31 Bowen's disease lesions and 44 superficial basal cell carcinoma were treated, with a median follow-up of 43.5 months. Recurrence was observed in 14 Bowen's disease lesions (53.8%) and in 11 superficial basal cell carcinoma (33.3%). Significantly higher estimates for recurrence rates were found in patients with Bowen's disease (p=0.0036) or those aged under 58 years (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence was higher in patients with Bowen's disease than in those with superficial basal cell carcinoma and younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence should be considered when choosing to treat non-melanoma skin cancer with photodynamic therapy. Younger age and Bowen's disease were independent predictors for long-term recurrence, suggesting the need to establish an extended period of follow-up for this subset of patients.

Venous thromboembolism in patients with acute leukemia: Prevalence, incidence, recurrence of thrombosis, risk factors, and impact on survival

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is the third most preventable cardiovascular disease and a growing public health problem in the United States. The incidence of VTE remains high with an annual estimate of more than 600,000 symptomatic events. DVT affects an estimated 2 million American each year with a death toll of 300,000 persons per year from DVT-related PE. Leukemia patients are at high risk for both hemorrhage and thrombosis; however, little is known about thrombosis among acute leukemia patients. The ultimate goal of this dissertation was to obtain deep understanding of thrombotic issue among acute leukemia patients. The dissertation was presented in a format of three papers. First paper mainly looked at distribution and risk factors associated with development of VTE among patients with acute leukemia prior to leukemia treatment. Second paper looked at incidence, risk factors, and impact of VTE on survival of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia during treatment. Third paper looked at recurrence and risk factors for VTE recurrence among acute leukemia patients with an initial episode of VTE. Descriptive statistics, Chi-squared or Fisher's exact test, median test, Mann-Whitney test, logistic regression analysis, Nonparametric Estimation Kaplan-Meier with a log-rank test or Cox model were used when appropriate. Results from analyses indicated that acute leukemia patients had a high prevalence, incidence, and recurrent rate of VTE. Prior history of VTE, obesity, older age, low platelet account, presence of Philadelphia positive ALL, use of oral contraceptives or hormone replacement therapy, presence of malignancies, and co-morbidities may place leukemia patients at an increased risk for VTE development or recurrence. Interestingly, development of VTE was not associated with a higher risk of death among hospitalized acute leukemia patients.^

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Intracerebral Granulocytic Sarcoma In Recurrence Of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia.

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The recurrence of leprosy reactional episodes could be associated with oral chronic infections and expression of serum IL-1, TNF-α, IL-6, IFN-γ and IL-10

The aim of this study was to determine whether the presence of leprosy reactional episodes could be associated with chronic oral infection. Thirty-eight leprosy patients were selected and divided into 2 groups: group I - 19 leprosy patients with oral infections, and group II - 19 leprosy patients without oral infections. Ten patients without leprosy, but presenting oral infections, were assigned to the control group. Leprosy patients were classified according to Ridley and Jopling classification and reactional episodes of the erythema nodosum type or reversal reaction were identified by clinical and histopathological features associated with serum IL-1, TNF-α, IL-6, IFN-γ and IL-10 levels. These analyses were performed immediately before and 7 days after the oral infection elimination. Patients from group I presenting oral infections reported clinical improvement of the symptoms of reactional episodes after dental treatment. Serum IL-1, TNF-α, IL-6, IFN-γ and IL-10 levels did not differ significantly before and after dental treatment as determined by the Wilcoxon test (p>0.05). Comparison of the 2 groups showed statistically significant differences in IL-1 and IL-6 at baseline and in IL-1, IL-6 and IL-10 on the occasion of both collections 7 days after therapy. Serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels in group I differed significantly at baseline compared to control (Mann-Whitney test; p<0.05). These results suggest that oral infection could be involved as a maintenance factor in the pathogenesis of leprosy reactional episodes.

Menopausal status: a possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Abstract Objectives to evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study desin This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (HR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). (To continue) Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of tumour invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status)

Multifractality in plasma edge electrostatic turbulence

Plasma edge turbulence in Tokamak Chauffage Alfven Bresilien (TCABR) [R. M. O. Galvao et al., Plasma Phys. Contr. Fusion 43, 1181 (2001)] is investigated for multifractal properties of the fluctuating floating electrostatic potential measured by Langmuir probes. The multifractality in this signal is characterized by the full multifractal spectra determined by applying the wavelet transform modulus maxima. In this work, the dependence of the multifractal spectrum with the radial position is presented. The multifractality degree inside the plasma increases with the radial position reaching a maximum near the plasma edge and becoming almost constant in the scrape-off layer. Comparisons between these results with those obtained for random test time series with the same Hurst exponents and data length statistically confirm the reported multifractal behavior. Moreover, the persistence of these signals, characterized by their Hurst exponent, present radial profile similar to the deterministic component estimated from analysis based on dynamical recurrences. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

An empirical evaluation of imputation accuracy for association statistics reveals increased type-I error rates in genome-wide associations

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

Recurrence quantification analysis of turbulent fluctuations in the plasma edge of Tokamak Chauffage Alfveacuten Breacutesilien tokamak

Recurrences are close returns of a given state in a time series, and can be used to identify different dynamical regimes and other related phenomena, being particularly suited for analyzing experimental data. In this work, we use recurrence quantification analysis to investigate dynamical patterns in scalar data series obtained from measurements of floating potential and ion saturation current at the plasma edge of the Tokamak Chauffage Alfveacuten Breacutesilien [R. M. O. Galva approximate to o , Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 43, 1181 (2001)]. We consider plasma discharges with and without the application of radial electric bias, and also with two different regimes of current ramp. Our results indicate that biasing improves confinement through destroying highly recurrent regions within the plasma column that enhance particle and heat transport.

Statistics of opinion domains of the majority-vote model on a square lattice

The existence of juxtaposed regions of distinct cultures in spite of the fact that people's beliefs have a tendency to become more similar to each other's as the individuals interact repeatedly is a puzzling phenomenon in the social sciences. Here we study an extreme version of the frequency-dependent bias model of social influence in which an individual adopts the opinion shared by the majority of the members of its extended neighborhood, which includes the individual itself. This is a variant of the majority-vote model in which the individual retains its opinion in case there is a tie among the neighbors' opinions. We assume that the individuals are fixed in the sites of a square lattice of linear size L and that they interact with their nearest neighbors only. Within a mean-field framework, we derive the equations of motion for the density of individuals adopting a particular opinion in the single-site and pair approximations. Although the single-site approximation predicts a single opinion domain that takes over the entire lattice, the pair approximation yields a qualitatively correct picture with the coexistence of different opinion domains and a strong dependence on the initial conditions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations indicate the existence of a rich distribution of opinion domains or clusters, the number of which grows with L(2) whereas the size of the largest cluster grows with ln L(2). The analysis of the sizes of the opinion domains shows that they obey a power-law distribution for not too large sizes but that they are exponentially distributed in the limit of very large clusters. In addition, similarly to other well-known social influence model-Axelrod's model-we found that these opinion domains are unstable to the effect of a thermal-like noise.