Realtime Logistics : echtzeitnahe Steuerung von Materialflusssystemen auf Basis autonomer Agenten und Entitäten

Die Steuerung logistischer und produktionstechnischer Systeme ist heute durchgängig hierarchisch organisiert. Auch dezentrale und wandelbare Systeme mit eingebetteten fraktalen oder adaptiven Elementen oder Regelkreisen lassen sich in ihrer Gesamtheit stets auf eine zeitgenaue zentrale Planung zurückführen. „Realtime Logistics“ bezeichnet im Gegensatz hierzu die echtzeitnahe Materialflusssteuerung auf Basis einer autonomen, selbstgesteuerten Abwicklung der im einzelnen logistischen Objekt implementierten Mission. Hierzu werden mobile Softwareagenten eingesetzt, die zunächst synchron zum Objekt, und in Zukunft eingebettet im logistischen Objekt, laufen werden.

A cost-minimization analysis of the societal costs of realtime teledermatology compared with conventional care: results from a randomized controlled trial in New Zealand

A randomized controlled trial was carried out to measure the societal costs of realtime teledermatology compared with those of conventional hospital care in New Zealand. Two rural health centres were linked to a specialist hospital via ISDN at 128 kbit/s. Over 10 months, 203 patients were referred for a specialist dermatological consultation and 26 were followed up, giving a total of 229 consultations. Fifty-four per cent were randomized to the teledermatology consultation and 46% to the conventional hospital consultation. A cost-minimization analysis was used to calculate the total costs of both types of dermatological consultation. The total cost of the 123 teledermatology consultations was NZ$34,346 and the total cost of the 106 conventional hospital consultations was NZ$30,081. The average societal cost of the teledermatology consultation was therefore NZ$279.23 compared with NZ$283.79 for the conventional hospital consultation. The marginal cost of seeing an additional patient was NZ$135 via teledermatology and NZ$284 via conventional hospital appointment. From a societal viewpoint, and assuming an equal outcome, teledermatology was a more cost-efficient use of resources than conventional hospital care.

A randomized controlled trial assessing the health economics of realtime teledermatology compared with conventional care: an urban versus rural perspective

A randomized controlled trial was carried out to measure the cost-effectiveness of realtime teledermatology compared with conventional outpatient dermatology care for patients from urban and rural areas. One urban and one rural health centre were linked to a regional hospital in Northern Ireland by ISDN at 128 kbit/s. Over two years, 274 patients required a hospital outpatient dermatology referral -126 patients (46%) were randomized to a telemedicine consultation and 148 (54%) to a conventional hospital outpatient consultation. Of those seen by telemedicine, 61% were registered with an urban practice, compared with 71% of those seen conventionally. The clinical outcomes of the two types of consultation were similar - almost half the patients were managed after a single consultation with the dermatologist. The observed marginal cost per patient of the initial realtime teledermatology consultation was f52.85 for those in urban areas and f59.93 per patient for those from rural areas. The observed marginal cost of the initial conventional consultation was f47.13 for urban patients and f48.77 for rural patients. The total observed costs of teledermatology were higher than the costs of conventional care in both urban and rural areas, mainly because of the fixed equipment costs. Sensitivity analysis using a real-world scenario showed that in urban areas the average costs of the telemedicine and conventional consultations were about equal, while in rural areas the average cost of the telemedicine consultation was less than that of the conventional consultation.

Realtime fetal ultrasound by telemedicine in Queensland. A successful venture?

We have established a realtime fetal tele-ultrasound consultation service in Queensland, which has been integrated into our routine clinical practice, The service, which uses ISDN transmission at 384 kbit/s, allows patients in Townsville to be examined by subspecialists in Brisbane, 1500 km away. For the 90 tele-ultrasound consultations performed for the first 71 patients, 90% of the babies have been delivered, and outcome data have been received on all the pregnancies. All significant anomalies and diagnoses have been confirmed. The referring clinicians would have physically referred 24 of the 71 patients to Brisbane in the absence of telemedicine. A crude cost-benefit calculation suggests that the tele-ultrasound service resulted in a net saving of A$6340, and at the same time enabled almost four times the number of consultations to be carried out.

Randomized comparison of the quality of realtime fetal ultrasound images transmitted by ISDN and by IP videoconferencing

We compared the quality of realtime fetal ultrasound images transmitted using ISDN and IP networks. Four experienced obstetric ultrasound specialists viewed standard recordings in a randomized trial and rated the appearance of 30 fetal anatomical landmarks, each on a seven-point scale. A total of 12 evaluations were performed for various combinations of bandwidths (128, 384 or 768 kbit/s) and networks (ISDN or IF). The intraobserver coefficient of variation was 2.9%, 5.0%, 12.7% and 14.7% for the four observers. The mean overall ratings by each of the four observers were 4.6, 4.8, 5.0 and 5.3, respectively (a rating of 4 indicated satisfactory visualization and 7 indicated as good as the original recording). Analysis of variance showed that there were no significant interobserver variations nor significant differences in the mean scores for the different types of videoconferencing machines used. The most significant variable affecting the mean score was the bandwidth used. For ISDN, the mean score was 3.7 at 128 kbit/s, which was significantly worse than the mean score of 4.9 at 384 kbit/s, which was in turn significantly worse than the mean score of 5.9 at 768 kbit/s. The mean score for transmission using IP was about 0.5 points lower than that using ISDN across all the different bandwidths, but the differences were not significant. It appears that IP transmission in a private (non-shared) network is an acceptable alternative to ISDN for fetal tele-ultrasound and one deserving further study.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

Palco: a multisensor realtime 3D cartoon production system

This paper presents Palco, a prototype system specifically designed for the production of 3D cartoon animations. The system addresses the specific problems of producing cartoon animations, where the main obj ective is not to reproduce realistic movements, but rather animate cartoon characters with predefined and characteristic body movements and facial expressions. The techniques employed in Palco are simple and easy to use, not requiring any invasive or complicated motion capture system, as both body motion and facial expression of actors are captured simultaneously, using an infrared motion detection sensor, a regular camera and a pair of electronically instrumented gloves. The animation process is completely actor-driven, with the actor controlling the character movements, gestures, facial expression and voice, all in realtime. The actor controlled cartoonification of the captured facial and body motion is a key functionality of Palco, and one that makes it specifically suited for the production of cartoon animations.

Logistic optimization in tourism networks

55th European Regional Science Association Congress, Lisbon, Portugal (25-28 August 2015).

Software transactional memory as a building block for parallel embedded realtime systems

The recent trends of chip architectures with higher number of heterogeneous cores, and non-uniform memory/non-coherent caches, brings renewed attention to the use of Software Transactional Memory (STM) as a fundamental building block for developing parallel applications. Nevertheless, although STM promises to ease concurrent and parallel software development, it relies on the possibility of aborting conflicting transactions to maintain data consistency, which impacts on the responsiveness and timing guarantees required by embedded real-time systems. In these systems, contention delays must be (efficiently) limited so that the response times of tasks executing transactions are upper-bounded and task sets can be feasibly scheduled. In this paper we assess the use of STM in the development of embedded real-time software, defending that the amount of contention can be reduced if read-only transactions access recent consistent data snapshots, progressing in a wait-free manner. We show how the required number of versions of a shared object can be calculated for a set of tasks. We also outline an algorithm to manage conflicts between update transactions that prevents starvation.

Predicting Xerostomia induced by IMRT treatments: A logistic regression approach

Radiotherapy is one of the main treatments used against cancer. Radiotherapy uses radiation to destroy cancerous cells trying, at the same time, to minimize the damages in healthy tissues. The planning of a radiotherapy treatment is patient dependent, resulting in a lengthy trial and error procedure until a treatment complying as most as possible with the medical prescription is found. Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) is one technique of radiation treatment that allows the achievement of a high degree of conformity between the area to be treated and the dose absorbed by healthy tissues. Nevertheless, it is still not possible to eliminate completely the potential treatments’ side-effects. In this retrospective study we use the clinical data from patients with head-and-neck cancer treated at the Portuguese Institute of Oncology of Coimbra and explore the possibility of classifying new and untreated patients according to the probability of xerostomia 12 months after the beginning of IMRT treatments by using a logistic regression approach. The results obtained show that the classifier presents a high discriminative ability in predicting the binary response “at risk for xerostomia at 12 months”

Run-time Monitoring Architecture for RealTime Systems

Presented at INForum - Simpósio de Informática (INFORUM 2015). 7 to 8, Sep, 2015. Portugal.

Resilience of logistic service providers facing a port strike: a case study

The purpose of this thesis is to study the impact of a port strike on companies that perform as logistic service providers in a supply chain (SC), here denominated 3PL (third-party logistic providers). These companies are highly dependent on ports to perform their activity, since they provide international services. Consequently, a disruption in a port can seriously impair their business. A stevedores’ strike is one of the possible disruptions that can affect ports. This study aims to analyze the negative effects caused by this disruption, and what strategies 3PLs may implement in order to keep their performance levels stable and have a quick recovery time. Within this objective, the first step will be to establish a theoretical context about the maritime port’s sector and 3PLs in a SC context, to then expand the concept of a resilient SC, and finally to develop a theoretical framework in order to better contextualize the case study. Subsequently, the impact of a port strike will be quantified by using a case study comprising three companies, covering the areas of land and sea distribution and port operations. Information from primary sources was assembled in two phases: first via e-mail and, in a second phase, through a personal interview. The information from secondary sources was obtained through television news, internet and conferences, enabling its cross-analysis. Finally, by analyzing the collected data, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the measures carried out by each company to minimize the negative effects of the strike, thus contributing to a more resilient SC. As a conclusion, a stevedores’ strike will create a snow-ball of negative effects in the SC, degrading all relevant KPIs (key performance indicators) of the 3PLs under study. No mitigation and contingency strategies available proved really effective to reduce the negative effects of a port strike disruption.

Methodical Bases of the Integrated Electrotechnical Complexes Life Cycle Logistic Support

Complex aspects of management by life cycle ofelectrotechnical complexes of the oil-extracting enterprises by amethod of the integrated logistic support are considered.

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.