Efficient estimation using the characteristic function : theory and applications with high frequency data

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Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Pre-anthesis ovary development determines genotypic differences in potential kernel weight in sorghum

Kernel weight is an important factor determining grain yield and nutritional quality in sorghum, yet the developmental processes underlying the genotypic differences in potential kernel weight remain unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the stage in development at which genetic effects on potential kernel weight were realized, and to investigate the developmental mechanisms by which potential kernel weight is controlled in sorghum. Kernel development was studied in two field experiments with five genotypes known to differ in kernel weight at maturity. Pre-fertilization floret and ovary development was examined and post-fertilization kernel-filling characteristics were analysed. Large kernels had a higher rate of kernel filling and contained more endosperm cells and starch granules than normal-sized kernels. Genotypic differences in kernel development appeared before stamen primordia initiation in the developing florets, with sessile spikelets of large-seeded genotypes having larger floret apical meristems than normal-seeded genotypes. At anthesis, the ovaries for large-sized kernels were larger in volume, with more cells per layer and more vascular bundles in the ovary wall. Across experiments and genotypes, there was a significant positive correlation between kernel dry weight at maturity and ovary volume at anthesis. Genotypic effects on meristem size, ovary volume, and kernel weight were all consistent with additive genetic control, suggesting that they were causally related. The pre-fertilization genetic control of kernel weight probably operated through the developing pericarp, which is derived from the ovary wall and potentially constrains kernel expansion.

On the images of Sobolev spaces under the heat kernel transform on the Heisenberg group

The aim of this paper is to obtain certain characterizations for the image of a Sobolev space on the Heisenberg group under the heat kernel transform. We give three types of characterizations for the image of a Sobolev space of positive order H-m (H-n), m is an element of N-n, under the heat kernel transform on H-n, using direct sum and direct integral of Bergmann spaces and certain unitary representations of H-n which can be realized on the Hilbert space of Hilbert-Schmidt operators on L-2 (R-n). We also show that the image of Sobolev space of negative order H-s (H-n), s(> 0) is an element of R is a direct sum of two weighted Bergman spaces. Finally, we try to obtain some pointwise estimates for the functions in the image of Schwartz class on H-n under the heat kernel transform. (C) 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

Adaptive instantaneous frequency estimation: Techniques and algorithms

This thesis deals with the problem of the instantaneous frequency (IF) estimation of sinusoidal signals. This topic plays significant role in signal processing and communications. Depending on the type of the signal, two major approaches are considered. For IF estimation of single-tone or digitally-modulated sinusoidal signals (like frequency shift keying signals) the approach of digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs) is considered, and this is Part-I of this thesis. For FM signals the approach of time-frequency analysis is considered, and this is Part-II of the thesis. In part-I we have utilized sinusoidal DPLLs with non-uniform sampling scheme as this type is widely used in communication systems. The digital tanlock loop (DTL) has introduced significant advantages over other existing DPLLs. In the last 10 years many efforts have been made to improve DTL performance. However, this loop and all of its modifications utilizes Hilbert transformer (HT) to produce a signal-independent 90-degree phase-shifted version of the input signal. Hilbert transformer can be realized approximately using a finite impulse response (FIR) digital filter. This realization introduces further complexity in the loop in addition to approximations and frequency limitations on the input signal. We have tried to avoid practical difficulties associated with the conventional tanlock scheme while keeping its advantages. A time-delay is utilized in the tanlock scheme of DTL to produce a signal-dependent phase shift. This gave rise to the time-delay digital tanlock loop (TDTL). Fixed point theorems are used to analyze the behavior of the new loop. As such TDTL combines the two major approaches in DPLLs: the non-linear approach of sinusoidal DPLL based on fixed point analysis, and the linear tanlock approach based on the arctan phase detection. TDTL preserves the main advantages of the DTL despite its reduced structure. An application of TDTL in FSK demodulation is also considered. This idea of replacing HT by a time-delay may be of interest in other signal processing systems. Hence we have analyzed and compared the behaviors of the HT and the time-delay in the presence of additive Gaussian noise. Based on the above analysis, the behavior of the first and second-order TDTLs has been analyzed in additive Gaussian noise. Since DPLLs need time for locking, they are normally not efficient in tracking the continuously changing frequencies of non-stationary signals, i.e. signals with time-varying spectra. Nonstationary signals are of importance in synthetic and real life applications. An example is the frequency-modulated (FM) signals widely used in communication systems. Part-II of this thesis is dedicated for the IF estimation of non-stationary signals. For such signals the classical spectral techniques break down, due to the time-varying nature of their spectra, and more advanced techniques should be utilized. For the purpose of instantaneous frequency estimation of non-stationary signals there are two major approaches: parametric and non-parametric. We chose the non-parametric approach which is based on time-frequency analysis. This approach is computationally less expensive and more effective in dealing with multicomponent signals, which are the main aim of this part of the thesis. A time-frequency distribution (TFD) of a signal is a two-dimensional transformation of the signal to the time-frequency domain. Multicomponent signals can be identified by multiple energy peaks in the time-frequency domain. Many real life and synthetic signals are of multicomponent nature and there is little in the literature concerning IF estimation of such signals. This is why we have concentrated on multicomponent signals in Part-H. An adaptive algorithm for IF estimation using the quadratic time-frequency distributions has been analyzed. A class of time-frequency distributions that are more suitable for this purpose has been proposed. The kernels of this class are time-only or one-dimensional, rather than the time-lag (two-dimensional) kernels. Hence this class has been named as the T -class. If the parameters of these TFDs are properly chosen, they are more efficient than the existing fixed-kernel TFDs in terms of resolution (energy concentration around the IF) and artifacts reduction. The T-distributions has been used in the IF adaptive algorithm and proved to be efficient in tracking rapidly changing frequencies. They also enables direct amplitude estimation for the components of a multicomponent

The potential to mitigate global warming with no-tillage management is only realized when practised in the long term

No-tillage (NT) management has been promoted as a practice capable of offsetting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because of its ability to sequester carbon in soils. However, true mitigation is only possible if the overall impact of NT adoption reduces the net global warming potential (GWP) determined by fluxes of the three major biogenic GHGs (i.e. CO2, N2O, and CH4). We compiled all available data of soil-derived GHG emission comparisons between conventional tilled (CT) and NT systems for humid and dry temperate climates. Newly converted NT systems increase GWP relative to CT practices, in both humid and dry climate regimes, and longer-term adoption (>10 years) only significantly reduces GWP in humid climates. Mean cumulative GWP over a 20-year period is also reduced under continuous NT in dry areas, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Emissions of N2O drive much of the trend in net GWP, suggesting improved nitrogen management is essential to realize the full benefit from carbon storage in the soil for purposes of global warming mitigation. Our results indicate a strong time dependency in the GHG mitigation potential of NT agriculture, demonstrating that GHG mitigation by adoption of NT is much more variable and complex than previously considered, and policy plans to reduce global warming through this land management practice need further scrutiny to ensure success.

Color and texture feature fusion using kernel PCA with application to object-based vegetation species classification

A good object representation or object descriptor is one of the key issues in object based image analysis. To effectively fuse color and texture as a unified descriptor at object level, this paper presents a novel method for feature fusion. Color histogram and the uniform local binary patterns are extracted from arbitrary-shaped image-objects, and kernel principal component analysis (kernel PCA) is employed to find nonlinear relationships of the extracted color and texture features. The maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the intrinsic dimensionality, which is then used as a criterion for automatic selection of optimal feature set from the fused feature. The proposed method is evaluated using SVM as the benchmark classifier and is applied to object-based vegetation species classification using high spatial resolution aerial imagery. Experimental results demonstrate that great improvement can be achieved by using proposed feature fusion method.

Learning the kernel matrix with semidefinite programming

Kernel-based learning algorithms work by embedding the data into a Euclidean space, and then searching for linear relations among the embedded data points. The embedding is performed implicitly, by specifying the inner products between each pair of points in the embedding space. This information is contained in the so-called kernel matrix, a symmetric and positive semidefinite matrix that encodes the relative positions of all points. Specifying this matrix amounts to specifying the geometry of the embedding space and inducing a notion of similarity in the input space - classical model selection problems in machine learning. In this paper we show how the kernel matrix can be learned from data via semidefinite programming (SDP) techniques. When applied to a kernel matrix associated with both training and test data this gives a powerful transductive algorithm -using the labeled part of the data one can learn an embedding also for the unlabeled part. The similarity between test points is inferred from training points and their labels. Importantly, these learning problems are convex, so we obtain a method for learning both the model class and the function without local minima. Furthermore, this approach leads directly to a convex method for learning the 2-norm soft margin parameter in support vector machines, solving an important open problem.

A unifying view of multiple kernel learning

Recent research on multiple kernel learning has lead to a number of approaches for combining kernels in regularized risk minimization. The proposed approaches include different formulations of objectives and varying regularization strategies. In this paper we present a unifying optimization criterion for multiple kernel learning and show how existing formulations are subsumed as special cases. We also derive the criterion’s dual representation, which is suitable for general smooth optimization algorithms. Finally, we evaluate multiple kernel learning in this framework analytically using a Rademacher complexity bound on the generalization error and empirically in a set of experiments.

A unifying view of multiple kernel learning

Recent research on multiple kernel learning has lead to a number of approaches for combining kernels in regularized risk minimization. The proposed approaches include different formulations of objectives and varying regularization strategies. In this paper we present a unifying general optimization criterion for multiple kernel learning and show how existing formulations are subsumed as special cases. We also derive the criterion's dual representation, which is suitable for general smooth optimization algorithms. Finally, we evaluate multiple kernel learning in this framework analytically using a Rademacher complexity bound on the generalization error and empirically in a set of experiments.

Learning the Kernel Matrix with Semi-Definite Programming

Kernel-based learning algorithms work by embedding the data into a Euclidean space, and then searching for linear relations among the embedded data points. The embedding is performed implicitly, by specifying the inner products between each pair of points in the embedding space. This information is contained in the so-called kernel matrix, a symmetric and positive definite matrix that encodes the relative positions of all points. Specifying this matrix amounts to specifying the geometry of the embedding space and inducing a notion of similarity in the input space -- classical model selection problems in machine learning. In this paper we show how the kernel matrix can be learned from data via semi-definite programming (SDP) techniques. When applied to a kernel matrix associated with both training and test data this gives a powerful transductive algorithm -- using the labelled part of the data one can learn an embedding also for the unlabelled part. The similarity between test points is inferred from training points and their labels. Importantly, these learning problems are convex, so we obtain a method for learning both the model class and the function without local minima. Furthermore, this approach leads directly to a convex method to learn the 2-norm soft margin parameter in support vector machines, solving another important open problem. Finally, the novel approach presented in the paper is supported by positive empirical results.

The rademacher complexity of coregularized kernel classes

In the multi-view approach to semisupervised learning, we choose one predictor from each of multiple hypothesis classes, and we co-regularize our choices by penalizing disagreement among the predictors on the unlabeled data. We examine the co-regularization method used in the co-regularized least squares (CoRLS) algorithm, in which the views are reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS's), and the disagreement penalty is the average squared difference in predictions. The final predictor is the pointwise average of the predictors from each view. We call the set of predictors that can result from this procedure the co-regularized hypothesis class. Our main result is a tight bound on the Rademacher complexity of the co-regularized hypothesis class in terms of the kernel matrices of each RKHS. We find that the co-regularization reduces the Rademacher complexity by an amount that depends on the distance between the two views, as measured by a data dependent metric. We then use standard techniques to bound the gap between training error and test error for the CoRLS algorithm. Experimentally, we find that the amount of reduction in complexity introduced by co regularization correlates with the amount of improvement that co-regularization gives in the CoRLS algorithm.

The undirected feedback vertex set problem has a Poly(k) Kernel

Resolving a noted open problem, we show that the Undirected Feedback Vertex Set problem, parameterized by the size of the solution set of vertices, is in the parameterized complexity class Poly(k), that is, polynomial-time pre-processing is sufficient to reduce an initial problem instance (G, k) to a decision-equivalent simplified instance (G', k') where k' � k, and the number of vertices of G' is bounded by a polynomial function of k. Our main result shows an O(k11) kernelization bound.

Kernel analysis on Grassmann manifolds for action recognition

Modelling video sequences by subspaces has recently shown promise for recognising human actions. Subspaces are able to accommodate the effects of various image variations and can capture the dynamic properties of actions. Subspaces form a non-Euclidean and curved Riemannian manifold known as a Grassmann manifold. Inference on manifold spaces usually is achieved by embedding the manifolds in higher dimensional Euclidean spaces. In this paper, we instead propose to embed the Grassmann manifolds into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and then tackle the problem of discriminant analysis on such manifolds. To achieve efficient machinery, we propose graph-based local discriminant analysis that utilises within-class and between-class similarity graphs to characterise intra-class compactness and inter-class separability, respectively. Experiments on KTH, UCF Sports, and Ballet datasets show that the proposed approach obtains marked improvements in discrimination accuracy in comparison to several state-of-the-art methods, such as the kernel version of affine hull image-set distance, tensor canonical correlation analysis, spatial-temporal words and hierarchy of discriminative space-time neighbourhood features.