Public real estate and the term structure of interest rates: a cross-country study

Using a variation of the Nelson-Siegel term structure model we examine the sensitivity of real estate securities in six key global markets to unexpected changes in the level, slop and curvature of the yield curve. Our results confirm the time-sensitive nature of the exposure and sensitivity to interest rates and highlight the importance of considering the entire term structure of interest rates. One issue that is of particular of interest is that despite the 2007-9 financial crisis the importance of unanticipated interest rate risk weakens post 2003. Although the analysis does examine a range of markets the empirical analysis is unable to provide definitive evidence as to whether REIT and property-company markets display heightened or reduced exposure.

Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Dennis, George W. and Mary E. Dennis, includes: Application for Loan on Real Estate, and Abstract of Title

Dennis, George W. and Mary E. Dennis, includes: Application for Loan on Real Estate, July 10, 1882; and Abstract of Title, Sept. 2, 1882.

Sampson, Albert, includes Application for a Loan on Real Estate, and an envelope with Mr. Sampson’s name crossed out

Sampson, Albert, includes Application for a Loan on Real Estate, April 19, 1882 and an envelope with Mr. Sampson’s name crossed out and postmarked Sept. 1882.

Diversification when it hurts? The joint distributions of real estate and equity markets

Much of the literature on the construction of mixed asset portfolios and the case for property as a risk diversifier rests on correlations measured over the whole of a given time series. Recent developments in finance, however, focuses on dependence in the tails of the distribution. Does property offer diversification from equity markets when it is most needed - when equity returns are poor. The paper uses an empirical copula approach to test tail dependence between property and equity for the UK and for a global portfolio. Results show strong tail dependence: in the UK, the dependence in the lower tail is stronger than in the upper tail, casting doubt on the defensive properties of real estate stocks.

Corporate real estate management in the retail sector: a study of the relationship between the management of the corporate real estate and corporate performance

Retail organisations have often been cited as being at the forefront of corporate real estate management. This research found that the retail sector can be characterised by diversity both in terms of the degree to which organisations are vertically integrated and in terms of the range of modes of retailing they engage in. This in turn led to highly diverse real estate portfolios. Given this diversity it may be surprising that the over riding strategy which the vast majority of sample firms adopted was focused on supporting the core retail activity. However the way in which they implement this strategy, again reflected the diversity in the sector. In terms of the future, the senior real estate managers were focusing on the medium term particularly looking at the way change would impact their functional strategy. This study provides a snap-shot of current practice and contributes to the debate however it also recognised that there is a need to answer the more fundamental questions.

Commercial real estate and equity market bubbles: are they contagious to REITs?

This paper uses a regime-switching approach to determine whether prices in the US stock, direct real estate and indirect real estate markets are driven by the presence of speculative bubbles. The results show significant evidence of the existence of periodically partially collapsing speculative bubbles in all three markets. A multivariate bubble model is then developed and implemented to evaluate whether the stock and real estate bubbles spill over into REITs. The underlying stock market bubble is found to be a stronger influence on the securitised real estate market bubble than that of the property market. Furthermore, the findings suggest a transmission of speculative bubbles from the direct real estate to the stock market, although this link is not present for the returns themselves.

Occupational futures? Divesting real estate and corporate PFI

Property ownership can tie up large amounts of capital and management energy that business could employ more productively elsewhere. Competitive pressures, accounting changes and increasingly sophisticated occupier requirements are building demand for new and innovative ways to satisfy corporate occupation needs. The investment climate is also changing. Falling interest rates and falling inflation can be expected to undermine returns from the traditional FRI lease. In future, investment returns will be more dependent on active and innovative management geared to the needs of occupiers on whom income depends. Occupier and investor interests, therefore, look set to coincide, but unlocking the potential for both parties will depend on developing new finance and investment vehicles that align their respective needs. In the UK, examples include PFI in the public sector and off-balance sheet financing in the private sector. In the USA, “synthetic lease” structures have also become popular. Growing investment market experience in assessing risks and returns suggests scope for further innovative arrangements in the corporate sector. But how can such arrangements be structured? What are the risks, drivers and barriers?

A comparative analysis of the accuracy and uncertainty in real estate and macroeconomic forecasts

We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.

Real estate and social inequality in Latin America: approaches in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia

Latin America is known as the most unequal region in the world, where extreme displays of wealth and exposure to scarcity lay bare in the urban landscape. Inequality is not just a social issue; it has considerable impact on economic development. This is because social inequality generates instability and conflict, which can create unsettling conditions for investment. At the macro level, social inequality can also present barriers to economic development, as most government policies and resources tend to be directed in solving social conflict rather than to promote and generate growth. This is one of the reasons usually cited in explaining the development gap between Latin America and other emerging economies, take East Asia for example - they have similar policies to those applied recently in Latin America, but are achieving better growth. The other reason cited is institutional; this includes governance as well as property rights and enforcement of contracts. The latter is the focus of this chapter.

Reference book; laws and information relating to real estate and real estate licenses

Ed. for 1940 issued as its Bulletin 1