Valuing an offshore exploration project through real options analysis

This thesis applied real options analysis to the valuation of an offshore oil exploration project, taking into consideration the several options typically faced by the management team of these projects. The real options process is developed under technical and price uncertainties, where it is considered that the mean reversion stochastic process is more adequate to describe the movement of oil price throught time. The valuation is realized to two case scenarios, being the first a simplified approach to develop the intuition of the used concepts, and the later a more complete cases that is resolved using both the binomial and trinomial processes to describe oil price movement. Real options methodology demonstrated to be capable of assessing and valuing the projects options, and of overcoming common capital budgeting methodologies flexibility limitation. The added value of the application of real options is evident, but so is the method's increased complexity, which adversely influence its widespread implementation.

Essays on supply chain's flexibility: a real options approach

A presente tese investiga o processo de tomada de decisão na gestão de cadeias de abastecimento, utilizando um quadro de análise de opções reais. Especificamente, estudamos tópicos como o nível de inventário ideal para protecção contra a incerteza da procura, o momento para implementação de capacidade flexível em mercados onde existe complexidade no mix de produtos, o tempo para o reforço do factor trabalho visando requisitos de serviço ao mercado, e as decisões entre integração e outsourcing num ambiente de incerteza. Foram usadas metodologias de tempo discreto e contínuo para identificar o valor ideal e o calendário das opções a adoptar, quando a procura é estocástica. Além disso, foram considerados os efeitos dos requisitos dos mercados, como a complexidade na oferta de produtos e o nível de serviço. A procura é representada recorrendo a diferentes processos estocásticos, o impacto de saltos inesperados também é explorado, reforçando a generalização dos modelos a diferentes condições de negócio. A aplicabilidade dos modelos que apresentamos permite a diversificação e o enriquecimento da literatura sobre a abordagem de opções reais, no âmbito das cadeias de abastecimento. Níveis de inventário flexíveis e capacidades flexíveis são característicos das cadeias de abastecimento e podem ser usados como resposta à incerteza do mercado. Esta tese é constituída por ensaios que suportam a aplicação dos modelos, e consiste num capítulo introdutório (designado por ensaio I) e mais seis ensaios sobre factores que discutem o uso de medidas de flexibilidade nas cadeias de abastecimento, em ambientes de incerteza, e um último ensaio sobre a extensão do conceito de flexibilidade ao tratamento da avaliação de planos de negócio. O segundo ensaio que apresentamos é sobre o valor do inventário num único estádio, enquanto medida de flexibilidade, sujeita ao crescente condicionalismo dos custos com posse de activos. Introduzimos uma nova classificação de artigos para suportar o indicador designado por overstock. No terceiro e quarto ensaio ampliamos a exploração do conceito de overstock, promovendo a interacção e o balanceamento entre vários estádios de uma cadeia de abastecimento, como forma de melhorar o desempenho global. Para sustentar a aplicação prática das abordagens, adaptamos o ensaio número três à gestão do desempenho, para suportar o estabelecimento de metas coordenadas e alinhadas; e adaptamos o quarto ensaio à coordenação das cadeias de abastecimento, como auxiliar ao planeamento integrado e sequencial dos níveis de inventário. No ensaio cinco analisamos o factor de produção “tecnologia”, em relação directa com a oferta de produtos de uma empresa, explorando o conceito de investimento, como medida de flexibilidade nas componentes de volume da procura e gama de produtos. Dedicamos o ensaio número seis à análise do factor de produção “Mão-de-Obra”, explorando as condicionantes para aumento do número de turnos na perspectiva económica e determinando o ponto crítico para a tomada de decisão em ambientes de incerteza. No ensaio número sete exploramos o conceito de internalização de operações, demarcando a nossa análise das demais pela definição do momento crítico que suporta a tomada de decisão em ambientes dinâmicos. Complementamos a análise com a introdução de factores temporais de perturbação, nomeadamente, o estádio de preparação necessário e anterior a uma eventual alteração de estratégia. Finalmente, no último ensaio, estendemos a análise da flexibilidade em ambientes de incerteza ao conceito de planos de negócio. Em concreto, exploramos a influência do número de pontos de decisão na flexibilidade de um plano, como resposta à crescente incerteza dos mercados. A título de exemplo, usamos o mecanismo de gestão sequencial do orçamento para suportar o nosso modelo. A crescente incerteza da procura obrigou a um aumento da agilidade e da flexibilidade das cadeias de abastecimento, limitando o uso de muitas das técnicas tradicionais de suporte à gestão, pela incapacidade de incorporarem os efeitos da incerteza. A flexibilidade é claramente uma vantagem competitiva das empresas que deve, por isso, ser quantificada. Com os modelos apresentados e com base nos resultados analisados, pretendemos demonstrar a utilidade da consideração da incerteza nos instrumentos de gestão, usando exemplos numéricos para suportar a aplicação dos modelos, o que claramente promove a aproximação dos desenvolvimentos aqui apresentados às práticas de negócio.

Financial decision making about found oil and gas in Ghana : real options vs. traditional methods

This research is a study of the use of capital budgeting methods for investment decisions. It uses both the traditional methods and the newly introduced approach called the real options analysis to make a decision. The research elucidates how capital budgeting can be done when analysts encounter projects with high uncertainty and are capital intensive, for example oil and gas production. It then uses the oil and gas find in Ghana as a case study to support its argument. For a clear understanding a thorough literature review was done, which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. The revenue that the project will generate and the costs of production were obtained from the predictions by analysts from GNPC and compared to others experts’ opinion. It then applied both the traditional and real option valuation on the oil and gas find in Ghana to determine the project’s feasibility. Although, there are some short falls in real option analysis that are presented in this research, it is still helpful in valuing projects that are capital intensive with high volatility due to the strategic flexibility management possess in their decision making. It also suggests that traditional methods of evaluation should still be maintained and be used to value projects that have no options or those with options yet the options do not have significant impact on the project. The research points out the economic ripples the production of oil and gas will have on Ghana’s economy should the project be undertaken. These ripples include economic growth, massive job creation and reduction of the balance of trade deficit for the country. The long run effect is an eventually improvement of life of the citizens. It is also belief that the production of gas specifically can be used to generate electricity in Ghana which would enable the country to have a more stable and reliable power source necessary to attract more foreign direct investment.

Real options and multinational investments : an empirical study of risk, performance and organisational awareness

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis is a cross-disciplinary study of the empirical impact of real options theory in the fields of decision sciences and performance management. Borrowing from the economics, strategy and operations research literature, the research examines the risk and performance implications of real options in firms’ strategic investments and multinational operations. An emphasis is placed on the flexibility potential and competitive advantage of multinational corporations to explore the extent to which real options analysis can be classified as best practice in management research. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques the evidence suggests that, if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options management can result in superior performance for multinational companies. The qualitative findings give an overview of the practical advantages and disadvantages of real options and the statistical results reveal that firms which have developed a high awareness of their real options are, as predicted by the theory, able to reduce their downside risk and increase profits through flexibility, organisational slack and multinationality. Although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee higher returns from operations, supplementary findings indicate that firms with evidence of significant investments in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors which are unaware of their real options. There are three contributions of this research. First, it extends the real options and capacity planning literature to path-dependent contingent-claims analysis to underline the benefits of average type options in capacity allocation. Second, it is thought to be the first to explicitly examine the performance effects of real options on a sample of firms which have developed partial capabilities in real options analysis suggesting that real options diffusion can be key to value creation. Third, it builds a new decision-aiding framework to facilitate the use of real options in projects appraisal and strategic planning.

Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Flexible Budgeting under Uncertainty: A Real Options Perspective

This paper examines the relationships between uncertainty and the perceived usefulness of traditional annual budgets versus flexible budgets in 95 Swedish companies. We form hypotheses that the perceived usefulness of the annual budgets as well as the attitudes to more flexible budget alternatives are influenced by the uncertainty that the companies face. Our study distinguishes between two separate kinds of uncertainty: exogenous stochastic uncertainty (deriving from the firm’s environment) and endogenous deterministic uncertainty (caused by the strategic choices made by the firm itself). Based on a structural equations modelling analysis of data from a mail survey we found that the more accentuated exogenous uncertainty a company faces, the more accentuated is the expected trend towards flexibility in the budget system, and vice versa; the more endogenous uncertainty they face, the more negative are their attitudes towards budget flexibility. We also found that these relationships were not present with regard to the attitudes towards the usefulness of the annual budget. Noteworthy is, however, that there was a significant negative relationship between the perceived usefulness of the annual budget and budget flexibility. Thus, our results seem to indicate that the degree of flexibility in the budget system is influenced by both general attitudes towards the usefulness of traditional budgets and by the actual degree of exogenous uncertainty a company faces and by the strategy that it executes.

Real options and game theoretical approaches to real estate development projects: multiple equilibria and the implications of different tie-breaking rules

This paper contributes to a fast growing literature which introduces game theory in the analysis of real option investments in a competitive setting. Specifically, in this paper we focus on the issue of multiple equilibria and on the implications that different equilibrium selections may have for the pricing of real options and for subsequent strategic decisions. We present some theoretical results of the necessary conditions to have multiple equilibria and we show under which conditions different tie-breaking rules result in different economic decisions. We then present a numerical exercise using the in formation set obtained on a real estate development in South London. We find that risk aversion reduces option value and this reduction decreases marginally as negative externalities decrease.

Le scelte di investimento delle aziende agricole e la PAC post-2013: valutazione di scenari mediante un modello real options

Negli ultimi decenni la Politica Agricola Comune (PAC) è stata sottoposta a diverse revisioni, più o meno programmate, che ne hanno modificato gli obiettivi operativi e gli strumenti per perseguirli. In letteratura economica agraria sono state eseguite diverse ricerche che affrontano analisi ex-ante sui possibili impatti delle riforme politiche, in particolare al disaccoppiamento, riguardo all’allocazione dei terreni alle diverse colture e all’adozione di tecniche di coltivazione più efficienti. Ma tale argomento, nonostante sia di grande importanza, non è stato finora affrontato come altri temi del mondo agricolo. Le principali lacune si riscontrano infatti nella carenza di analisi ex-ante, di modelli che includano le preferenze e le aspettative degli agricoltori. Questo studio valuta le scelte di investimento in terreno di un’azienda agricola di fronte a possibili scenari PAC post-2013, in condizioni di incertezza circa le specifiche condizioni in cui ciascuno scenario verrebbe a verificarsi. L’obiettivo è di ottenere indicazioni utili in termini di comprensione delle scelte di investimento dell’agricoltore in presenza di incertezza sul futuro. L’elemento maggiormente innovativo della ricerca consiste nell’applicazione di un approccio real options e nell’interazione tra la presenza di diversi scenari sul futuro del settore agricolo post-2013, e la componente di incertezza che incide e gravita su di essi. La metodologia adottata nel seguente lavoro si basa sulla modellizzazione di un’azienda agricola, in cui viene simulato il comportamento dell’azienda agricola in reazione alle riforme della PAC e alla variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti in presenza di incertezza. Mediante un modello di Real Option viene valutata la scelta della tempistica ottimale per investire nell’acquisto di terreno (caratterizzato da incertezza e irreversibilità). Dai risultati emerge come in presenza di incertezza all’agricoltore convenga rimandare la decisione a dopo il 2013 e in base alle maggiori informazioni disponibili eseguire l’investimento solo in presenza di condizioni favorevoli. La variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti influenza le scelte più dell’incertezza dei contributi PAC. Il Real Option sembra interpretare meglio il comportamento dell’agricoltore rispetto all’approccio classico del Net Present Value.

A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms’ strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.

Real options and demographic decisions:empirical evidence from East and West Germany

Iyer and Velu (2006) have convincingly argued that contemporary analyses of fertility behaviour fail to explain why a woman (or a couple) will choose to postpone childbirth, and in particular to consider the role of uncertainty in this regard. They have addressed this lacuna in the literature by using a real options approach to model fertility decisions by relating uncertainty experienced by individuals to the likelihood of childbirth. However, they did not present empirical evidence. Since the theory implies the existence of two offsetting effects of uncertainty on fertility decisions, a positive insurance effect and a negative option value effect, it is not easy to reject the theory on the basis of empirical analysis, when one of these effects offsets the other. We construct such a test for East (and also West) Germany during that country's reunification, which takes advantage of the fact that because of the country's strong welfare system, the insurance effect should be dominated by the option value effect, thereby suggesting that the net relationship should be negative. The results provide rather strong support for the real options link, especially for Eastern Germany.

Optimal Risk Adoption: A Real Options Approach

This study develops a real options approach for analyzing the optimal risk adoption policy in an environment where the adoption means a switch from one stochastic flow representation into another. We establish that increased volatility needs not decelerate investment, as predicted by the standard literature on real options, once the underlying volatility of the state is made endogenous. We prove that for a decision maker with a convex (concave) objective function, increased post-adoption volatility increases (decreases) the expected cumulative present value of the post-adoption profit flow, which consequently decreases (increases) the option value of waiting and, therefore, accelerates (decelerates) current investment.