Financial leverage and tangibility of assets of Brazilian companies of agribusiness in the post-real plan period

This paper aims to study the relationship between the debt level and the asset structure of Brazilian companies of the agribusiness sector, since it is considered a current and relevant discussion: to evaluate the mechanisms for fund-raising and guarantees. The methodology of Granger`s Causality test and Autoregressive Vectors was used to conduct a comparative analysis, applied to a financial database of companies with open capital of Brazilian agribusiness, in particular the agricultural sector and Fisheries and Food and Beverages in a period of 10 years (1997-2007) from quarterly series available in the database of Economatica(R). The results demonstrated that changes in leverage generate variations in the tangibility of the companies, a fact that can be explained by the large search of funding secured by fiduciary transfer of fixed assets, which facilitates access to credit by business of the Agribusiness sector, increasing the payment time and lowering interest rates.

Effects of the real plan of the Brazilian banking system

The aim of this paper is to assess the progress of the banking sector before and shortly after the Real Plan. We began by assessing the drop in the inflation revenues (negative real interest rates paid by the excess of demand deposits over total reserve requirements) as a result of the change in inflation from 40% a month for the pre-Real Plan period to a monthly average of 3.65% (IGP-DI), between July 1994 and May 1995. Then, using the financial statement data of a group of 90 banks, we attempt to estimate the net losses due to the inflation drop analyzing the profitability and other parameters of the banking industry. The calculations are made separately for private, state and federal banks. A later analysis on performance using information given to CVM (Securities Exchange Commission) by the six major private banks in the country is also discussed herein.

Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead

The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyse the domestic public debt management experience in Brazil, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefiy reviewing the recent domestic public debt history, we decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt during 1995-2000, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main culprits are the extremely high interest payments-which, unti11998, were caused by the weak fiscal stance and the quasi-fixed exchange-rate regime; and since 1999, by the impact ofthe currency depreciation On the dollar-indexed and the externai debt-, and the accumulation of assets of doubtful value, much of which may have to be written off in the future. Simulation exercises of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-GDP ratio from growing further. Given the need to quickly lengthen the debt maturity, our main policy advice is to foster, and rely more on, infiation-linked bonds.

The Real Plan: Stabilization and destabilization

The paper analyzes Brazil's Real Plan, an exchange-rate based stabilization program, implemented in 1994, which mixed a spectacular price stabilization with some serious macroeconomic destabilization. The paper focuses on two of these imbalances: the consumption boom and the financial destabilization; showing that the former represented nothing the reverse side of a collapsed investment boom, which, in turn, led to the financial (banking) crisis. We hold that these instabilities were produced by a policy arrangement in which monetary and fiscal policies alone had to compensate for a largely appreciated, almost fixed, exchange rate anchor. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quinze anos de rigidez monetária no Brasil pós-Plano Real: uma agenda de pesquisa

Fifteen years of monetary rigidity in Brazil after the Real Plan: a research agenda.The paper makes a review of literature and a research agenda on the anomaly of Brazilian monetary policy. Following a retrospect of the first 15 years after the Real Plan, there is a review of studies aiming to explain the high real interest rate. None of the summarized theses can completely explain the phenomenon. The main research opportunities are: deepening of empirical evidence of monetary policy efficacy loss; improvement in mensuration of its inefficacy; and improvement of alternative instruments to control inflation. The field of political economy is also fertile. One should assess the relevance of oligopolies as an explaining factor of persistence of high inflation.

A persistência da indexação no Brasil pós-Real

The paper analyzes the shortcomings of the Real Plan combining political science and economics, considering evidences on difficulties in implementing a complete plan of deindexation, namely: the distributional conflict, the corporatist relations between the State and society and the bureaucratic isolation of a highly specialized technocracy. The announcement of the plan triggered defensive reactions, fueling distributive tensions during the URV period, forcing the economic team to take measures that contradicted the overall guidelines followed. The persistence of indexation mechanisms indicate the resulting obstacles in seeking a reform of the State through a stabilization plan, even though the latter has the former as a precondition.

The Brazilian 1994 stabilization plan: an analytical view

The Real Plan has succeeded in stabilizing the Brazilian inflation. The consumer price inflation has been reduced from 11260 percent per year, in June 1994, to an estimate of 8 percent in 1997. The lower inflation resulted in a remarkable income distribution, and in an increased private consumption. The plan managed to control the inflationary effects of the increased demand with some traditional measures: A more liberalized economy, a moving (and overvalued) exchange rate band, high interest rate differentials, and a tight domestic credit policy. The government has, so far failed to accomplish the fiscal adjustment. The price stabilization has largely depended on the current account deficit. However, macroeconomic indicators do not present reasons for concern about the current account sustainability, in the medium-run. The economy may be trapped in a low-growth vicious cycle, represented by a stop-and-go trend, due to the two-way endogencity between domestic saving and growth. Economic growth depends on policies in increase the public sector saving, to secure the privatization of the State enterprises, and to promote investments. The major problem for the government action is, as always, in the political sphere. Approximately 80 percent of the Central Government net revenue are allocated to the social sectors. Consequently, the fiscal reform will hue to deal with the problem of re-designing the public sector’s intervention in the social area. Most probably, it will be inevitable to cut the social area budget. This is politically unpleasant.

Plano real e a bolsa de valores de São Paulo

A redução dos índices de inflação introduzida no Brasil pelo Plano Real trouxe alterações nos mais diferentes aspectos da vida econômica do país. Este trabalho visa analisar as principais alterações provocadas nos mercados de ações, analisando os impactos na Bovespa - Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo. Para tal foram analisadas as principais variáveis e medidas estatísticas que descrevem a Bovespa, como, por exemplo, a volatilidade e risco sistemático, nos períodos de quatro anos anteriores e posteriores ao início do Plano Real. De forma a separar os efeitos causados pelo Plano Real de outros de extensão global, utilizamos séries de controles baseadas em índices de bolsas da América Latina e de mercados centrais. Os resultados das análises realizadas indicam que houve uma redução da volatilidade no período pós-real em relação ao pré-real, o risco sistemático dos ativos brasileiros não se alterou, e o Ibovespa tornou-se menos eficiente em comparação com uma carteira formada pelos índices dos mercados centrais.

Determinantes do crescimento das gestoras independentes de recursos no Brasil, pós plano real

A dissertação objetivou identificar os principais determinantes que exercem influência no número de gestoras independentes de recursos de terceiros (Assets) em funcionamento no Brasil, um segmento que apresentou franco crescimento na última década. O método de análise empregado foi quantitativo, utilizando o modelo de regressão linear múltipla, e teve, como base de dados analisados, dados históricos de 15 variáveis macroeconômicas da economia brasileira. O período analisado contempla 14 anos (de 1994 a 2008). Dado o enfoque deste trabalho, considerou-se necessária uma revisão das principais mudanças ocorridas na economia e no setor financeiro do país, bem como seus reflexos nas taxas de juros, níveis de poupança, endividamento interno e externo e no setor bancário. Através da análise realizada foi possível perceber, através do emprego da análise de correlação, que as variáveis macroeconômicas são altamente relacionadas entre si, bem como identificar que as principais variáveis que têm impacto no mercado de Assets em funcionamento são: bancos em funcionamento no país; volume de recursos depositados em poupança e expectativa de inflação.

Os determinantes macroeconômicos do spread bancário para pessoas físicas e jurídicas no Brasil: uma análise do período pós plano real

Este trabalho tem por objetivo a análise empírica dos fatores macroeconômicos que determinaram os níveis de spread bancário para pessoas físicas e pessoas jurídicas no Brasil no período pós-adoção do Plano Real até dezembro de 2012. Para isso foi utilizado um modelo de auto regressão vetorial com variáveis representativas de fatores macroeconômicos. O Trabalho expõe ainda algumas características da indústria bancária no Brasil e as particularidades do mercado de crédito praticado para pessoas físicas e pessoas jurídicas. Os resultados deste trabalho evidenciaram que: (i) a taxa básica de juros foi o principal fator macroeconômico de influência do spread praticado tanto para pessoas físicas quanto para pessoas jurídicas; (ii) Enquanto um impacto no nível de inflação ocasionou maior influência no spread para pessoas físicas, um impacto na volatilidade da taxa básica de juros influenciou positivamente o spread para pessoas jurídicas.

Notes on cyclical tendency to the overvaluation of the real

This note addresses the question “To what extent financial regulation in Brazil was effective in neutralizing the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate in Brazil since the 1994 Real Plan?” Aiming at answering this question, this note is organized as follows: after this short introduction, we briefly describe the Brazilian exchange rate behavior after the Real Plan, emphasizing its key role in keeping prices stable. In section 3, the recent measures adopted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) aiming at avoiding the overvaluation of real will be summarized. In section 4, we argue in favor of a new policy mix that could avoid overvaluation of the currency. Finally, some issues will be raised in order to effectively neutralize the overvaluation of real.

Plano real e a nova realidade brasileira

This paper analyzes the Real Plan and its effects on two administrations of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), a period which extends from 1995 to 2002. To this end, the study includes a brief review of the problems faced by previous plans, especially the Cruzado Plan and the reasons for the belief that it has been successfull in relation to inflation control. Additionally, seeking to describe the process of moving to the new currency towards stabilization, the paper describes the theoretical foundations of the Plan. In sequence, it defines the backround of both international and domestic monetary reform which was one important part of the Plan and therefore the reasons for the implementation of the monetary reform. Subsequently the paper deals with the effects of the Plan on the economy as a whole, covering also the way the economic measures were taken concerning the Mexican and Asian crisis, the policies used fot the exchange rate, interest rate, fiscal accounts, balance of payments, among other factors and the relationship between them. Hence, it describes the immediate and the long-term consequences of stabilization program in terms of output, employment, public deficit and debt. Therefore, it is important to note the various junctures to which the economy was exposed, and also to point out the challenges and obstacles arising from these changes for growth, which was sometimes fast, sometimes slowing down - the so-called stop and go. Of course, facts as the moving to floating exchange rate regime, the adoption of inflation targeting regime and the adoption of fiscal responsibility law along with the primary surplus policy were able to create a new economic environment and to contribute to later success of the Cardoso years

A curva de Phillips no Brasil e a política de metas de inflação : uma análise da evolução do trade-off durante o período 1980-2010

Diante de uma discussão não consensual a respeito da existência ou não de um trade-off entre inflação e desemprego (curva de Phillips), esta dissertação analisa a evolução desta relação na economia brasileira no período 1980-2010 através de duas análises diferentes: A primeira é uma análise considerada estática, realizada com a utilização de uma regressão linear simples. A segunda consiste em uma análise dinâmica, onde é utilizada uma regressão com coeficientes time-varying, com a estimação dos coeficientes sendo realizada com a aplicação do filtro de Kalman. Os resultados econométricos mostraram que a relação entre inflação e desemprego de fato se alterou ao longo do período analisado: A curva de Phillips se torna horizontal após o Plano Real e fica levemente positiva após o Regime de Metas de Inflação. Sendo assim, este trabalho basicamente se divide em duas partes: A primeira consiste de uma contextualização teórica da relação entre inflação e desemprego e do regime de metas de inflação. A segunda parte traz a análise econométrica, onde é descrita a evolução do trade-off. Diante dos resultados encontrados, são apresentadas suas possíveis causas e é realizada uma análise qualitativa da atual política monetária praticada pelo Banco Central do Brasil.

Independência do banco central e equilíbrio fiscal: algumas observações para o caso brasileiro

The objective of this paper is to analyze the main theoretical arguments for the analysis of the conduction of monetary policy on the fiscal side. Besides this, an analysis is made of the possible effects on the fiscal balance from the conduction of the monetary policy in the search for price stability after the Real Plan and due to an increase in the central bank independence (CBI) in the Brazilian case. The findings denote that the strategy for the conduction of the adopted monetary policy and the increase in the degree of CBI did not contribute to an imrovement in the fiscal balance.

La ocupación de áreas de manantiales en la región metropolitana de São Paulo: los mercados de tierras en las zonas rurales periurbanas

Las ocupaciones ilegales, vinculadas a los procesos especulativos del mercado de tierras, generan numerosas tensiones ambientales y sociales. Estos conflictos se ven reforzados por la debilidad de las instituciones y los choques de intereses entre los agentes económicos. La mayoría de los estudios sobre los procesos de ocupación de las zonas rurales periurbanas en el Estado de Sao Paulo,  Brasil, se basan en la suposición de que de la Ley de Protección de los Manantiales (LPM) se genera la caída de los precios de las tierras. En este contexto, el presente estudio aporta un análisis  de la urbanización de estas áreas en los manantiales de la región metropolitana de Sao Paulo, del control de la influencia de la LPM en las ocupaciones y de la depreciación/valorización de terrenos  ubicados en esa zona. Los resultados muestran que el comportamiento de los precios de las tierras agrícolas de los municipios pertenecientes a las cuencas hidrográficas de la zona no estuvo influenciado  por la LPM. La influencia predo  inante, en este caso, es la de las políticas macroeconómicas del plan real de Brasil.