Signaling in political budget cycles: How far are you willing to go?

This paper analyzes how heterogeneity in two dimensions, competency and character, a¤ects political budget cycles. Competency is the e¢ciency in running the government. Character is the degree of opportunism. In this expanded space, previous results in the literature on the separating nature of the signaling equilibrium hold if heterogeneity in opportunism is low. With high heterogeneity in opportunism, no separating equilibrium exists. Rather, the equilibrium is partially pooling: only extreme types can be distinguished.

Political budget cycles in a fiscal federation : the effect of partisan voluntary transfers

This article first presents an econometric study suggesting that intergovernmental transfers to Brazilian municipalities are strongly partisan motivated. In light of that stylized fact, it develops an extension to Rogoff (1990)’s model to analyze the effect of partisan motivated transfers into sub-national electoral and fiscal equilibria. The main finding is that important partisan transfers may undo the positive selection aspect of political budget cycles. Indeed, partisan transfers may, on one hand, eliminate the political budget cycle, solving a moral hazard problem, but, on the other hand, they may retain an incompetent incumbent in office, bringing about an adverse selection problem.

Does IMF Induce Political Business Cycles? An Empirical Analysis on Latin America's Indebted Countries.

Rapport de recherche

Special interests and political business cycles

In this paper we bridge the gap between special interest politics and political business cycle literature. We build a framework where the interplay between the lobby power of special interest groups and the voting power of the majority of the population leads to political business cycles. We apply our set up to explain electoral cycles in government expenditure composition, aggregate expenditures and real exchange rates.

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Arrecadação e gastos de governo latino-americanos em anos eleitorais

Pesquisa em foco: Do political budget cycles differ in latin american democracies? - 2011. Pesquisadores: Lorena G. Barberia e Professor George Avelino

Exploring foreign market access in government procurement

Using unexplored Japanese and Swiss public procurement data over 1990-2003, we examine the effect of macroeconomic, political economy, procurement-specific and domestic policy factors on governments’ sourcing decisions. We also provide for an empirical test of Baldwin's (1970, 1984) "neutrality proposition" and for the effectiveness of the WTO's Uruguay Round Agreement on Government Procurement (URGPA) in increasing foreign market access. Our results suggest the importance of the magnitude of procurement demand, domestic firm attributes and unobserved sector-specific heterogeneity in these governments' purchases from abroad. However, the expected impact of traditional macroeconomic variables and political budget cycles does not come through in our results. Public and private sector imports do not offset each other in our analyses for Japan and only selectively for Switzerland. Finally, membership of the GPA is only found to increase the value of foreign procurement in Switzerland, though it seems to increase the import demand for contracts in both countries.

Ciclos político-económico-electorales y su incidencia en los niveles de pobreza en el marco de la competencia por el poder

El interés de la presente monografía es analizar los efectos de los ciclos político-económico-electorales (CPEE) sobre los niveles de pobreza en Colombia para el periodo del 2002 al 2010. Se analiza el manejo de la política fiscal por parte del gobierno con el fin de caracterizar el ciclo político entre oportunista o partidista. De esta forma, se pretende corroborar que en Colombia los CPEE generan efectos en la economía. No obstante, estos efectos pueden ser más o menos duraderos en función de la sostenibilidad del discurso ganador en la contienda electoral. Como resultado de este trabajo se determinó que la discontinuidad en el manejo de la política fiscal presenta un ciclo político-económico-electoral oportunista que contribuye negativamente los niveles de pobreza. Para desarrollar lo anterior, se realiza un análisis el cual se aborda desde el Enfoque de la Elección Racional.

Talouskäsitysten vaikutus hallituksen suosioon Puolassa 2006–2007

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan äänestäjien talouskäsitysten vaikutusta hallituksen suosioon Puolassa vuosina 2006 ja 2007. Tutkimusasetelma juontaa juurensa poliittisten suhdannevaihteluiden teoriaan, jonka mukaan poliitikot pyrkivät manipuloimaan taloutta vaalien alla tullakseen uudelleen valituiksi. Vastuullisuushypoteesin mukaan äänestäjät palkitsevat poliitikot hyvästä taloustilanteesta. Näin ollen mikäli äänestäjät ovat tyytyväisiä talouteen he äänestävät hallitusta. Mikäli eivät, he äänestävät oppositiota. Miten äänestäjät sitten tekevät arvionsa taloudesta? Tutkielmassa selvitetään vaikuttiko äänestäjien mielipiteisiin käsitys nykyisestä vai tulevaisuuden taloustilanteesta. Käsitys nykyisestä taloustilanteesta perustuu havaintoihin jo toteutuneesta talouspolitiikasta. Tätä käsitystä kutsutaan retrospektiiviseksi näkemykseksi. Prospektiiviset talousnäkemykset koostuvat näkemyksestä ja odotuksista talouden tulevasta tilasta ja uskosta hallituksen kykyyn tarjota paras vaihtoehto suotuisalle talouskehitykselle. Aikaulottuvuuden lisäksi tutkielmassa testataan, vaikuttaako äänestäjiin enemmän heidän oma taloustilanteensa vai näkemys yleisestä talouden tilanteesta. Mikäli hallituksen suosio perustuu näkemyksiin henkilökohtaisen talouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät egotrooppisia. Mikäli kannatuspäätös perustuu näkemykseen kansantalouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät puolestaan sosiotrooppisia. Aineistona tutkielmassa käytetään uusinta saatavilla olevaa Puolan mielipidetiedustelun (Centrum Badania Opinii Publicznej) keräämää kyselyaineistoa vuosilta 2006 ja 2007. Tutkielmassa on yhdistetty kyselyaineistot 22:n kuukauden ajalta. Aineistoa on analysoitu logistisen regressioanalyysin menetelmin. Tutkielman perusteella talousnäkemyksistä suurin vaikutus hallituksen suosioon on äänestäjien näkemyksillä kansantalouden tulevaisuuden tilasta. Henkilökohtaisen talouden osalta positiiviset tulevaisuudennäkymät vaikuttavat positiivisesti myös hallituksen kannatukseen. Retrospektiivinen arvio henkilökohtaisesta taloudesta toimii kuitenkin teorian vastaisesti; oman taloudellisen tilanteen hyväksi arvioineiden todennäköisyys kannatta hallitusta oli pienempää kuin niillä, jotka arvioivat oman taloustilanteensa huonoksi. Kontrollimuuttujiksi valittiin joukko aiemmassa tutkimuksessa äänestyskäyttäytymiseen Puolassa vaikuttaneita tekijöitä. Näitä olivat ikä, sukupuoli, koulutus, asuinpaikka, näkemys työllisyystilanteesta, ideologinen sijoittuminen oikeisto–vasemmisto-akselilla sekä uskonnollisuus. Kontrollimuuttujista merkitseviksi osoittautuivat uskonnollisuus, oikeisto–vasemmisto-ideologia, koulutus, asuinpaikka sekä ikä. Kun edellä mainitut taustamuuttujat on kontrolloitu, taloustekijät selittävät noin viidesosan hallituksen kannatuksen todennäköisyyden vaihtelusta.

Educação e escolarização quilombola: construções políticopedagógicas em Brejo dos Crioulos MG

Atualmente tem se apresentado, pelo movimento quilombola, a demanda de formulação de políticas educacionais para o povo quilombola, acompanhando as reivindicações para legitimação do direito ao território ocupado secularmente, assim como outros direitos demandados por este povo tradicional. O processo de educação e escolarização na educação básica de um território quilombola como o de Brejo dos Crioulos em Minas Gerais, sob a perspectiva da educação diferenciada, ou seja, orientada culturalmente, pode estar fortemente relacionado com a dimensão política da atuação dos quilombolas na luta pelo reconhecimento e legitimidade do território, do modo de vida, da sua identidade, da sua cultura e história. Contemplou-se nesta investigação o mapeamento e a análise dos processos educativos de Brejo dos Crioulos apontando suas propostas curriculares, seus avanços, assim como os limites relacionados à formulação e implementação de políticas direcionadas para o desenvolvimento educacional local. A investigação no território quilombola específico, nos moldes da pesquisa qualitativa enquanto lógica de investigação, abordou as ações do movimento quilombola estadual e local, a identidade coletiva e a territorialidade em relação ao ciclo de políticas disponível, como, por exemplo, a Lei n 10.639/03, atualizada por meio da Lei n 11.645/08 e diretrizes curriculares que alteram a Lei n 9.394/96, com o objetivo de incluir, no currículo oficial da rede de ensino, a obrigatoriedade do ensino da História e cultura afro-brasileira e indígena, e as Diretrizes Curriculares para Educação Quilombola, aprovadas em 05 de junho de 2012, Parecer MEC/CNE/CEB 16/2012, homologadas na Resolução MEC/CNE/CEB n 8, publicada em 20 de novembro de 2012. Além das práticas políticas quilombolas, foram analisadas as práticas de gestão educacional do poder público municipal de São João da Ponte e Varzelândia, municípios do norte mineiro que integram o território pesquisado. Com a inserção em campo, nos moldes explicitados, foi privilegiado o uso da observação direta para mapear e descrever em profundidade o cotidiano no território pesquisado. Com a inserção em campo, nos moldes explicitados, foi privilegiado o uso da observação direta para mapear e descrever em profundidade o cotidiano no território pesquisado, as representações políticas e educacionais, as mudanças e transformações atuais. A entrevista em forma de conversa é, também, uma das técnicas utilizadas para documentar as experiências e representações dos sujeitos quilombolas, professores, gestores e coordenadores envolvidos com a educação e escolarização no território de Brejo dos Crioulos, além de registros em áudio, vídeo e caderno de campo. O tratamento e a análise dos dados coletados obedecem a critérios metodológicos qualitativos de triangulação para apresentação dos resultados da pesquisa.

Les représentations sociales du politique: une analyse sémantique de l'idéologie nationale fédéraliste québécoise durant les deux périodes référendaires

Dans ce mémoire, nous proposons l’étude des représentations sociales du politique dans la presse quotidienne. Notre objet d’étude est le sens de la nation au Québec dans une période historique où la notion idéologique de nation s’avère un cadre de référence en profonde mutation dans de nombreuses sociétés. Plus particulièrement, nous voulons nous situer au centre des tensions à propos de la représentation sociale nationale en prenant comme observatoire un travail idéologique fédéraliste par des Québécois, qui à la fois se posent comme promoteurs de la nation, et visent une intégration dans un autre espace national et juridique : le Canada. Les résultats de cette étude qualitative sont issus d’une analyse sémantique du discours éditorial du journal La Presse. Nous avons ainsi examiné les différentes catégories de connaissance mobilisées lors de l’évocation de l’espace national, ainsi que la façon dont elles sont organisées au sein du discours lors des deux périodes référendaires, soit en 1980 et 1995. C’est donc dans le cadre d’une sociologie de la connaissance journalistique que nous menons cette étude. Le discours social, à partir de l’étude des théories des représentations sociales et de la sociologie des contenus médiatiques, ne peut se considérer qu’à travers l’ensemble des relations sociales dont il est le produit. Nous nous attachons ici à définir d’une part les spécificités du discours éditorial, et d’autre part les différentes catégories de connaissances utilisées dans notre corpus qui font sens. On perçoit alors, grâce à une description diachronique, l’évolution des représentations sociales ayant a trait à l’espace national québécois entre les deux périodes étudiées. Après avoir défini ce dont on parle lorsqu’il est question de l’espace national, nous nous emploierons à analyser la façon dont ce discours est organisé. Ainsi, nous mettons en avant d’une part, les différentes formes discursives, rhétoriques et argumentatives, mises en place dans le but de persuader et de justifier l’action (le rejet des deux référendums, et l’adhésion aux promesses de renouvellement du fédéralisme), et d’autre part la logique discursive mobilisée consistant à placer la nation comme un objet politique rationnel ou non. En effet, le discours éditorial nous permet de mettre au jour une organisation cognitive de la connaissance, qui à quelques nuances près, est structurée de façon manichéenne entre le rationnel (l’éditorialiste, le fédéralisme, l’économique, l’universalisme, la raison de sens commun) et l’irrationnel (le souverainisme, ses dirigeants n’étant que des rêveurs et des passionnés), se plaçant dès lors dans un rapport de communication politique, plus proche de la propagande que de l’exemplarité réflexive que pose le discours éditorial.

The Dangers and Inanity of (Euro-) Nationalism: From Communitarianism to Cosmopolitanism. Egmont Paper No. 77, April 2015

INTRODUCTION In the current times of multifaceted crisis, nationalism looks, more than ever, like a positive and necessary feeling. It seems both natural and indispensable if we are to have viable political and social institutions that meet the needs and preferences of all citizens. The following paper contests this vision. Its criticism of nationalism is directed not only at its national forms, but also at any defence of collective identity based on the same model, such as the various forms of European nationalism. Furthermore, the same overriding criticism can be made of different kinds of nationalism, regardless of their more or less open and progressive political content. In order to ground our argument theoretically and practically, we will try to show that nationalism is always potentially harmful to individual rights, and unnecessary for the maintenance of a just social and political system. We will thus oppose any acritical defence of the intrinsic value of a specific community and the belief in its artificial homogeneity. The historical construction of a supposedly homogeneous community, and the insistence on its values, which are perceived as superior and binding, facilitate the absorption of the individual into the collective. As we will explain further in more details, this holistic approach is typical of communitarian approaches. In that respect, it does not really matter whether they appeal to passion or to reason, to some irrational binding features of the community or to more rational political aspects of a common identity. The main problem in nationalism is not the emotion it can trigger, it is not even its reliance on particular values. What makes nationalism problematic is, firstly, that it tends to overlook the intrinsically divisive and contradictory nature of individual and collective interests in unjust societies; secondly, that it attributes an intrinsic superiority to a particular community over others; and thirdly, that it sees politics as a means to promote the interests, values or identity of that community. As an alternative, we will very briefly advocate a cosmopolitan approach that grounds political legitimacy in a demanding approach to individual freedom, rather than in a shared collective identity. However, even if only briefly, we will also carefully distinguish our own vision of cosmopolitanism from those commonly put forward. Frequently, cosmopolitan perspectives entangle their identity frameworks with concrete political projects, without clearly explaining how the latter derive from the former. Our approach to cosmopolitanism, on the other hand, is, first and foremost, a critical vision of all communitarian postulates according to which politics should be based on some form of collective identity. Thus, we insist on the conceptual distinction between a general stance on identity issues and the more practical political ideology one stands for. In a subsequent step, we link this cosmopolitan framework with a progressive approach to individual rights. Because of our demanding approach to individual freedom, our cosmopolitanism goes hand in hand with a revival of identity-free sovereignty. It is therefore distinct from the severe condemnation of sovereignty often found in most mainstream cosmopolitan positions. Finally, instead of the frequent confusion found in public discourses and in the literature between ideals and reality, our position acknowledges the deep gulf separating these two dimensions. It therefore sketches out very general strategic principles to bring normative ideals closer to political reality.

Towards a U.S. Army officer corps strategy for success : retaining talent /

Over the last 3 decades, dramatic labor market changes and well-intentioned but uninformed policies have created significant officer talent flight. Poor retention engenders substantial risk for the Army as it directly affects accessions, development, and employment of talent. The Army cannot make thoughtful policy decisions if its officer talent pipeline continues to leak at current rates. Since the Army cannot insulate itself from labor market forces as it tries to retain talent, the retention component of its officer strategy must rest upon sound market principles. It must be continuously resourced, executed, measured, and adjusted across time and budget cycles. Absent these steps, systemic policy, and decisionmaking failures will continue to confound Army efforts to create a talent-focused officer corps strategy.

Asymmetries in Business Cycles

Esta disertación busca estudiar los mecanismos de transmisión que vinculan el comportamiento de agentes y firmas con las asimetrías presentes en los ciclos económicos. Para lograr esto, se construyeron tres modelos DSGE. El en primer capítulo, el supuesto de función cuadrática simétrica de ajuste de la inversión fue removido, y el modelo canónico RBC fue reformulado suponiendo que des-invertir es más costoso que invertir una unidad de capital físico. En el segundo capítulo, la contribución más importante de esta disertación es presentada: la construcción de una función de utilidad general que anida aversión a la pérdida, aversión al riesgo y formación de hábitos, por medio de una función de transición suave. La razón para hacerlo así es el hecho de que los individuos son aversos a la pérdidad en recesiones, y son aversos al riesgo en auges. En el tercer capítulo, las asimetrías en los ciclos económicos son analizadas junto con ajuste asimétrico en precios y salarios en un contexto neokeynesiano, con el fin de encontrar una explicación teórica de la bien documentada asimetría presente en la Curva de Phillips.