Local impacts of global change: shifting range limits, advancing phenology, and communicating research

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.

Loss of thermal refugia near equatorial range limits

This study examines the importance of thermal refugia along the majority of the geographical range of a key inter- tidal species (Patella vulgata Linnaeus, 1758) on the Atlantic coast of Europe. We asked whether differences between sun-exposed and shaded microhabitats were responsible for differences in physiological stress and ecological perfor- mance and examined the availability of refugia near equatorial range limits. Thermal differences between sun- exposed and shaded microhabitats are consistently associated with differences in physiological performance, and the frequency of occurrence of high temperatures is most probably limiting the maximum population densities sup- ported at any given place. Topographical complexity provides thermal refugia throughout most of the distribution range, although towards the equatorial edges the magnitude of the amelioration provided by shaded microhabitats is largely reduced. Importantly, the limiting effects of temperature, rather than being related to latitude, seem to be tightly associated with microsite variability, which therefore is likely to have profound effects on the way local popu- lations (and consequently species) respond to climatic changes.

Variation in offspring size towards the high elevational range edge of a montane annual

Understanding the ecological determinants of species’ distribution is a fundamental goal of ecology, and is increasingly important with changing limits to species’ range. Species often reach distributional limits on gradients of resource availability, but the extent to which offspring provisioning varies towards range limits is poorly understood. Selection is generally expected to favour higher provisioning of individual offspring in environments with short growing seasons and limited moisture, nutrients, or hosts for parasitism. However, individual provisioning may decline if parent size is limited by resources. This thesis focuses on three major questions: 1) does seed size vary over an elevational gradient? 2) does this variation respond adaptively towards the range limit? and 3) is potential elevational variation environmentally or genetically controlled? I tested variation in seed investment towards the upper elevational limit of the hemiparasitic annual herb Rhinanthus minor, sampled across an elevational range of 1,000m in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. I also used a reciprocal transplant experiment to address the heritability of seed mass. Seed mass increased marginally towards higher elevations, while seed number and plant size declined. There was a strong elevational increase in seed mass scaled by overall plant size. Therefore, investment in individual seeds was higher towards the upper range edge, indicating potential adaptation of the reproductive strategy to allow for establishment in marginal environments. Genetic, environmental, and genotype-by-environment interactions were observed in transplanted populations, but the relative proportions of these effects on seed size were unclear.

Phenological response of sea turtles to environmental variation across a species' northern range

Variations in environmental parameters (e. g. temperature) that form part of global climate change have been associated with shifts in the timing of seasonal events for a broad range of organisms. Most studies evaluating such phenological shifts of individual taxa have focused on a limited number of locations, making it difficult to assess how such shifts vary regionally across a species range. Here, by using 1445 records of the date of first nesting for loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) at different breeding sites, on different continents and in different years across a broad latitudinal range (25-39 degrees ' N), we demonstrate that the gradient of the relationship between temperature and the date of first breeding is steeper at higher latitudes, i.e. the phenological responses to temperature appear strongest at the poleward range limit. These findings support the hypothesis that biological changes in response to climate change will be most acute at the poleward range limits and are in accordance with the predictions of MacArthur's hypothesis that poleward range limit for species range is environmentally limited. Our findings imply that the poleward populations of loggerheads are more sensitive to climate variations and thus they might display the impacts of climate change sooner and more prominently.

Differences between recent and historical records of upperspecies limits in the northern European Alps

Are there differences in historical and recent upper range limits of vascular plants and are such differences more pronounced in individual species groups? The limits of 1103 plants of the Northern Alps are compared to range limits in the mid-19th century. The comparison is based on two surveys. The first survey was conducted by Otto Sendtner in 1848–1853, the second in 1991–2008 during a habitat inventory. To our knowledge this is the first comparative studies reaching back to the end of the “Little Ice Age” and comprising an almost entire regional flora covering the complete range of habitats. During the recent survey, most species were found at higher elevations. Even though the differences fit well with the expected shifts due to climate warming we cannot exclude effects of sampling bias. However, we assume that the relative differences between species groups can be safely interpreted. The differences in upper limits between both surveys were significantly larger among forest species. The most important reason is probably discontinued pasture and mowing, which may have amplified possible warming effects. Nitrogen deposits may have contributed to this effect by placing competitive species in a more advantageous position.

Deploy and search strategy for multi-agent systems using Voronoi partitions

In this paper we analyze a deploy and search strategy for multi-agent systems. Mobile agents equipped with sensors carry out search operation in the search space. The lack of information about the search space is modeled as an uncertainty density distribution over the space, and is assumed to be known to the agents a priori. In each step, the agents deploy themselves in an optimal way so as to maximize per step reduction in the uncertainty density. We analyze the proposed strategy for convergence and spatial distributedness. The control law moving the agents has been analyzed for stability and convergence using LaSalle's invariance principle, and for spatial distributedness under a few realistic constraints on the control input such as constant speed, limit on maximum speed, and also sensor range limits. The simulation experiments show that the strategy successfully reduces the average uncertainty density below the required level.

Performance of a class of multi-robot deploy and search strategies based on centroidal voronoi configurations

This article considers a class of deploy and search strategies for multi-robot systems and evaluates their performance. The application framework used is deployment of a system of autonomous mobile robots equipped with required sensors in a search space to gather information. The lack of information about the search space is modelled as an uncertainty density distribution. The agents are deployed to maximise single-step search effectiveness. The centroidal Voronoi configuration, which achieves a locally optimal deployment, forms the basis for sequential deploy and search (SDS) and combined deploy and search (CDS) strategies. Completeness results are provided for both search strategies. The deployment strategy is analysed in the presence of constraints on robot speed and limit on sensor range for the convergence of trajectories with corresponding control laws responsible for the motion of robots. SDS and CDS strategies are compared with standard greedy and random search strategies on the basis of time taken to achieve reduction in the uncertainty density below a desired level. The simulation experiments reveal several important issues related to the dependence of the relative performances of the search strategies on parameters such as the number of robots, speed of robots and their sensor range limits.

Atlas and zoogeography of common fishes in the Bering Sea and northeastern Pacific

The geographic and depth frequency distribution of 124 common demersal fish species in the northeastern Pacific were plotted from data on me at the Northwest and Alaska Fisheries Center (NWAFC), National Marine Fisheries Service. The data included catch records of fishes and invertebrates from 24,881 samples taken from the Chukchi Sea, throughout the Bering Sea, Aleutian Basin, Aleutian Archipelago, and the Gulf of Alaska, and from southeastern Alaska south to southern California. Samples were collected by a number of agencies and institutions over a 30-year period (1953-83), but were primarily from NWAFC demersal trawls. The distributions of all species with 100 or more occurrences in the data set were plotted by computer. Distributions plotted from these data were then compared with geographic and depth-range limits given in the literature. These data provide new range extensions (geographic, depth, or both) for 114 species. Questionable extensions are noted, the depth ranges determined for 95% of occurrences, and depths of most frequent occurrence are recorded. Ranges of the species were classified zoogeographically, according to life zone, and with regard to the depth zone of greatest occurrence. Because most species examined have broad geographic ranges, they do not provide the best information for testing the validity of proposed zoogeographic province boundaries. Because of the location of greatest sampling effort and methods used in sampling, most fIShes examined were eastern boreal Pacific, sublittoral-bathyal (outer shelf) species. (PDF file contains 158 pages.)

An automatable generic strategy for dynamic load balancing in parallel structured mesh CFD codes

Parallel computing is now widely used in numerical simulation, particularly for application codes based on finite difference and finite element methods. A popular and successful technique employed to parallelize such codes onto large distributed memory systems is to partition the mesh into sub-domains that are then allocated to processors. The code then executes in parallel, using the SPMD methodology, with message passing for inter-processor interactions. In order to improve the parallel efficiency of an imbalanced structured mesh CFD code, a new dynamic load balancing (DLB) strategy has been developed in which the processor partition range limits of just one of the partitioned dimensions uses non-coincidental limits, as opposed to coincidental limits. The ‘local’ partition limit change allows greater flexibility in obtaining a balanced load distribution, as the workload increase, or decrease, on a processor is no longer restricted by the ‘global’ (coincidental) limit change. The automatic implementation of this generic DLB strategy within an existing parallel code is presented in this chapter, along with some preliminary results.

The distribution of late-Quaternary woody taxa in northern Eurasia: evidence from a new macrofossil database

We present a database of late-Quaternary plant macrofossil records for northern Eurasia (from 23 degrees to 180 degrees E and 46 degrees to 76 degrees N) comprising 281 localities, over 2300 samples and over 13,000 individual records. Samples are individually radiocarbon dated or are assigned ages via age models fitted to sequences of calibrated radiocarbon dates within a section. Tree species characteristic of modern northern forests (e.g. Picea, Larix, tree-Betula) are recorded at least intermittently from prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), through the LGM and Lateglacial, to the Holocene, and some records locate trees close to the limits of the Scandinavian ice sheet, supporting the hypothesis that some taxa persisted in northern refugia during the last glacial cycle. Northern trees show differing spatio-temporal patterns across Siberia: deciduous trees were widespread in the Lateglacial, with individuals occurring across much of their contemporary ranges, while evergreen conifers expanded northwards to their range limits in the Holocene. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysing organochlorine pesticides in strawberry jams using GC-ECD, GC-MS/MS and QuEChERS sample preparation

This paper describes a comparison of adaptations of the QuEChERS (quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged and safe) approach for the determination of 14 organochlorine pesticide (OCP) residues in strawberry jam by concurrent use of gas chromatography (GC) coupled to electron capture detector (ECD) and GC tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). Three versions were tested based on the original QuEChERS method. The results were good (overall average of 89% recoveries with 15% RSD) using the ultrasonic bath at five spiked levels. Performance characteristics, such as accuracy, precision, linear range, limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ), were determined for each pesticide. LOD ranged from 0.8 to 8.9 microg kg-1 ; LOQ was in the range of 2.5–29.8 microg kg- 1; and calibration curves were linear (r2>0.9970) in the whole range of the explored concentrations (5–100 microg kg- 1). The LODs of these pesticides were much lower than the maximum residue levels (MRLs) allowed in Europe for strawberries. The method was successfully applied to the quantification of OCP in commercially available jams. The OCPs were detected lower than the LOD.

Pollen-based reconstructions of Japanese biomes at 0, 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp

A biomization method, which objectively assigns individual pollen assemblages to biomes ( Prentice et al., 1996 ), was tested using modern pollen data from Japan and applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp Biomization started with the assignment of 135 pollen taxa to plant functional types (PFTs), and nine possible biomes were defined by specific combinations of PFTs. Biomes were correctly assigned to 54% of the 94 modern sites. Incorrect assignments occur near the altitudinal limits of individual biomes, where pollen transport from lower altitudes blurs the local pollen signals or continuous changes in species composition characterizes the range limits of biomes. As a result, the reconstructed changes in the altitudinal limits of biomes at 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp are likely to be conservative estimates of the actual changes. The biome distribution at 6000 14C yr bp was rather similar to today, suggesting that changes in the bioclimate of Japan have been small since the mid-Holocene. At 18,000 14C yr bp the Japanese lowlands were covered by taiga and cool mixed forests. The southward expansion of these forests and the absence of broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forests reflect a pronounced year-round cooling.

A fast method using a new hydrophilic–lipophilic balanced sorbent in combination with ultra-high performance liquid chromatography for quantification of significant bioactive metabolites in wines

This manuscript describes the development and validation of an ultra-fast, efficient, and high throughput analytical method based on ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) equipped with a photodiode array (PDA) detection system, for the simultaneous analysis of fifteen bioactive metabolites: gallic acid, protocatechuic acid, (−)-catechin, gentisic acid, (−)-epicatechin, syringic acid, p-coumaric acid, ferulic acid, m-coumaric acid, rutin, trans-resveratrol, myricetin, quercetin, cinnamic acid and kaempferol, in wines. A 50-mm column packed with 1.7-μm particles operating at elevated pressure (UHPLC strategy) was selected to attain ultra-fast analysis and highly efficient separations. In order to reduce the complexity of wine extract and improve the recovery efficiency, a reverse-phase solid-phase extraction (SPE) procedure using as sorbent a new macroporous copolymer made from a balanced ratio of two monomers, the lipophilic divinylbenzene and the hydrophilic N-vinylpyrrolidone (Oasis™ HLB), was performed prior to UHPLC–PDA analysis. The calibration curves of bioactive metabolites showed good linearity within the established range. Limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) ranged from 0.006 μg mL−1 to 0.58 μg mL−1, and from 0.019 μg mL−1 to 1.94 μg mL−1, for gallic and gentisic acids, respectively. The average recoveries ± SD for the three levels of concentration tested (n = 9) in red and white wines were, respectively, 89 ± 3% and 90 ± 2%. The repeatability expressed as relative standard deviation (RSD) was below 10% for all the metabolites assayed. The validated method was then applied to red and white wines from different geographical origins (Azores, Canary and Madeira Islands). The most abundant component in the analysed red wines was (−)-epicatechin followed by (−)-catechin and rutin, whereas in white wines syringic and p-coumaric acids were found the major phenolic metabolites. The method was completely validated, providing a sensitive analysis for bioactive phenolic metabolites detection and showing satisfactory data for all the parameters tested. Moreover, was revealed as an ultra-fast approach allowing the separation of the fifteen bioactive metabolites investigated with high resolution power within 5 min.

Status, trends and drivers of kelp forests in Europe: an expert assessment

A comprehensive expert consultation was conducted in order to assess the status, trends and the most important drivers of change in the abundance and geographical distribution of kelp forests in European waters. This consultation included an on-line questionnaire, results from a workshop and data provided by a selected group of experts working on kelp forest mapping and eco-evolutionary research. Differences in status and trends according to geographical areas, species identity and small-scale variations within the same habitat where shown by assembling and mapping kelp distribution and trend data. Significant data gaps for some geographical regions, like the Mediterranean and the southern Iberian Peninsula, were also identified. The data used for this study confirmed a general trend with decreasing abundance of some native kelp species at their southern distributional range limits and increasing abundance in other parts of their distribution (Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides). The expansion of the introduced species Undaria pinnatifida was also registered. Drivers of observed changes in kelp forests distribution and abundance were assessed using experts’ opinions. Multiple possible drivers were identified, including global warming, sea urchin grazing, harvesting, pollutionand fishing pressure, and their impact varied between geographical areas. Overall, the results highlight major threats for these ecosystems but also opportunities for conservation. Major requirements to ensure adequate protection of coastal kelp ecosystems along European coastlines are discussed, based on the local to regional gaps detected in the study.