Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals : evidence from Indian tourism

Testing for the random walk hypothesis, which asserts that a series is a non-stationary process or a unit root process, in the case of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy. If, for instance, visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are without a unit root, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. This study provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis for visitor arrivals to India using the recently developed Im et al. (2003) and Maddala and Wu (1999) panel unit root tests. Both tests allow one to reject the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to India from the 10 major source markets have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.

Testing the random walk hypothesis with variance ratio statistics

Mestrado em Finanças

Random walk versus multiple trend breaks in stock prices : evidence from 15 European markets

This letter extends research reported in Narayan and Smyth (2005) by employing multiple trend break unit root tests to examine the random walk hypothesis for 15 European stock market indices. The results provide strong support for the view that stock prices are characterized by a random walk.

Mean reversion versus random walk in G7 stock prices evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests

This paper provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis in G7 stock price indices using unit root tests which allow for one and two structural breaks in the trend. Of the seven countries we find, at best, evidence of mean reversion in the stock price index of Japan. Thus, overall, our results support the random walk hypothesis. We also consider the implications of the identified structural breaks for movement in stock prices over time. Our main conclusion from this exercise is that the second break in stock prices has had a detrimental effect on movements in stock prices in the G7 countries.

Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models

This paper examines whether stock prices for a sample of 22 OECD countries can be best represented as mean reversion or random walk processes. A sequential trend break test proposed by Zivot and Andrews is implemented, which has the advantage that it can take account of a structural break in the series, as well as panel data unit root tests proposed by Im et al., which exploits the extra power in the panel properties of the data. Results provide strong support for the random walk hypothesis.

Monetary models of exchange rates and the random walk

Three alternative monetary models of exchange rate are tested using data on the Italian lira - US doIIar exchange rate. II is shown that up to the early 1990s these economic models perform better than the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasts.

Fundamental solution and discrete random walk model for time-space fractional diffusion equation

In this paper, we consider a time-space fractional diffusion equation of distributed order (TSFDEDO). The TSFDEDO is obtained from the standard advection-dispersion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by the Caputo fractional derivative of order α∈(0,1], the first-order and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of orders β 1∈(0,1) and β 2∈(1,2], respectively. We derive the fundamental solution for the TSFDEDO with an initial condition (TSFDEDO-IC). The fundamental solution can be interpreted as a spatial probability density function evolving in time. We also investigate a discrete random walk model based on an explicit finite difference approximation for the TSFDEDO-IC.

A directed continuous time random walk model with jump length depending on waiting time

In continuum one-dimensional space, a coupled directed continuous time random walk model is proposed, where the random walker jumps toward one direction and the waiting time between jumps affects the subsequent jump. In the proposed model, the Laplace-Laplace transform of the probability density function P(x,t) of finding the walker at position at time is completely determined by the Laplace transform of the probability density function φ(t) of the waiting time. In terms of the probability density function of the waiting time in the Laplace domain, the limit distribution of the random process and the corresponding evolving equations are derived.

Calculating the Fickian diffusivity for a lattice-based random walk with agents and obstacles of different shapes and sizes

Random walk models are often used to interpret experimental observations of the motion of biological cells and molecules. A key aim in applying a random walk model to mimic an in vitro experiment is to estimate the Fickian diffusivity (or Fickian diffusion coefficient),D. However, many in vivo experiments are complicated by the fact that the motion of cells and molecules is hindered by the presence of obstacles. Crowded transport processes have been modeled using repeated stochastic simulations in which a motile agent undergoes a random walk on a lattice that is populated by immobile obstacles. Early studies considered the most straightforward case in which the motile agent and the obstacles are the same size. More recent studies considered stochastic random walk simulations describing the motion of an agent through an environment populated by obstacles of different shapes and sizes. Here, we build on previous simulation studies by analyzing a general class of lattice-based random walk models with agents and obstacles of various shapes and sizes. Our analysis provides exact calculations of the Fickian diffusivity, allowing us to draw conclusions about the role of the size, shape and density of the obstacles, as well as examining the role of the size and shape of the motile agent. Since our analysis is exact, we calculateDdirectly without the need for random walk simulations. In summary, we find that the shape, size and density of obstacles has a major influence on the exact Fickian diffusivity. Furthermore, our results indicate that the difference in diffusivity for symmetric and asymmetric obstacles is significant.

Tracking Random Walk of Individual Domain Walls in Cylindrical Nanomagnets with Resistance Noise

The stochasticity of domain-wall (DW) motion in magnetic nanowires has been probed by measuring slow fluctuations, or noise, in electrical resistance at small magnetic fields. By controlled injection of DWs into isolated cylindrical nanowires of nickel, we have been able to track the motion of the DWs between the electrical leads by discrete steps in the resistance. Closer inspection of the time dependence of noise reveals a diffusive random walk of the DWs with a universal kinetic exponent. Our experiments outline a method with which electrical resistance is able to detect the kinetic state of the DWs inside the nanowires, which can be useful in DW-based memory designs.

Search on a hypercubic lattice using a quantum random walk. I. d > 2

Random walks describe diffusion processes, where movement at every time step is restricted to only the neighboring locations. We construct a quantum random walk algorithm, based on discretization of the Dirac evolution operator inspired by staggered lattice fermions. We use it to investigate the spatial search problem, that is, to find a marked vertex on a d-dimensional hypercubic lattice. The restriction on movement hardly matters for d > 2, and scaling behavior close to Grover's optimal algorithm (which has no restriction on movement) can be achieved. Using numerical simulations, we optimize the proportionality constants of the scaling behavior, and demonstrate the approach to that for Grover's algorithm (equivalent to the mean-field theory or the d -> infinity limit). In particular, the scaling behavior for d = 3 is only about 25% higher than the optimal d -> infinity value.

Search on a hypercubic lattice using a quantum random walk. II. d = 2

We investigate the spatial search problem on the two-dimensional square lattice, using the Dirac evolution operator discretized according to the staggered lattice fermion formalism. d = 2 is the critical dimension for the spatial search problem, where infrared divergence of the evolution operator leads to logarithmic factors in the scaling behavior. As a result, the construction used in our accompanying article A. Patel and M. A. Rahaman, Phys. Rev. A 82, 032330 (2010)] provides an O(root N ln N) algorithm, which is not optimal. The scaling behavior can be improved to O(root N ln N) by cleverly controlling the massless Dirac evolution operator by an ancilla qubit, as proposed by Tulsi Phys. Rev. A 78, 012310 (2008)]. We reinterpret the ancilla control as introduction of an effective mass at the marked vertex, and optimize the proportionality constants of the scaling behavior of the algorithm by numerically tuning the parameters.

An Efficient Random Walk Strategy for Sampling Based Robot Motion Planners

Sampling based planners have been successful in path planning of robots with many degrees of freedom, but still remains ineffective when the configuration space has a narrow passage. We present a new technique based on a random walk strategy to generate samples in narrow regions quickly, thus improving efficiency of Probabilistic Roadmap Planners. The algorithm substantially reduces instances of collision checking and thereby decreases computational time. The method is powerful even for cases where the structure of the narrow passage is not known, thus giving significant improvement over other known methods.

Search on a Hypercubic Lattice using Quantum Random Walk

We investigate the spatial search problem on the two-dimensional square lattice, using the Dirac evolution operator discretized according to the staggered lattice fermion formalism. d=2 is the critical dimension for the spatial search problem, where infrared divergence of the evolution operator leads to logarithmic factors in the scaling behavior. As a result, the construction used in our accompanying article [ A. Patel and M. A. Rahaman Phys. Rev. A 82 032330 (2010)] provides an O(√NlnN) algorithm, which is not optimal. The scaling behavior can be improved to O(√NlnN) by cleverly controlling the massless Dirac evolution operator by an ancilla qubit, as proposed by Tulsi Phys. Rev. A 78 012310 (2008). We reinterpret the ancilla control as introduction of an effective mass at the marked vertex, and optimize the proportionality constants of the scaling behavior of the algorithm by numerically tuning the parameters.