Politics in extraordinary times : a study of the reaction of political parties and elites to terrorism

Cette thèse porte sur le comportement des élites politiques durant les périodes de crise nationale et plus particulièrement sur leurs réactions aux attentats terroristes. Elle démontre que les crises terroristes sont tout comme les conflits militaires ou diplomatiques propices aux unions nationales et notamment aux ralliements des partis d’opposition auprès du gouvernement. L’analyse statistique d’actes terroristes s’étant produits dans cinq états démocratiques (Allemagne, Espagne, États-Unis d’Amérique, France et Royaume-Uni) entre 1990 et 2006 révèle que l’ampleur d’un attentat en termes de pertes humaines ainsi que la répétition de ces attentats influencent dans une large mesure la réaction des élites politiques. Ainsi plus l’ampleur d’un attentat est élevée, plus la probabilité d’un ralliement est grande. En revanche, la multiplication des attentats augmente la possibilité de dissension entre l’opposition et le gouvernement. Par ailleurs, l’opposition est plus susceptible de se rallier au gouvernement lorsque l’attentat est perpétré par des terroristes provenant de l’étranger. L’analyse quantitative indique également que l’existence d’un accord formel de coopération dans la lutte antiterroriste entre le gouvernement et l’opposition favorise l’union des élites. Enfin, les données analysées suggèrent que la proportion des ralliements dans les cinq pays est plus importante depuis les attentats du 11 septembre 2001. Une analyse qualitative portant exclusivement sur la France et couvrant la période 1980-2006 confirme la validité des variables identifiées dans la partie quantitative, mais suggère que les élites réagissent au nombre total de victimes (morts mais aussi blessés) et que la répétition des actes terroristes a moins d’impact lors des vagues d’attentats. Par ailleurs, les analyses de cas confirment que les élites politiques françaises sont plus susceptibles de se rallier quand un attentat vise un haut-fonctionnaire de l’État. Il apparaît également que les rivalités et rancœurs politiques propre à la France (notamment suite à l’arrivée de la gauche au pouvoir en 1981) ont parfois empêché le ralliement des élites. Enfin, cette analyse qualitative révèle que si l’extrême gauche française soutient généralement le gouvernement, qu’il soit de gauche ou de droite, en période de crise terroriste, l’extrême droite en revanche saisit quasi systématiquement l’opportunité offerte par l’acte terroriste pour critiquer le gouvernement ainsi que les partis de l’establishment. La thèse est divisée en sept chapitres. Le premier chapitre suggère que le comportement des élites politiques en période de crises internationales graves (guerres et conflits diplomatiques) est souvent influencé par la raison d’État et non par l’intérêt électoral qui prédomine lors des périodes plus paisibles. Le second chapitre discute du phénomène terroriste et de la littérature afférente. Le troisième chapitre analyse les causes du phénomène d’union nationale, soumet un cadre pour l’analyse de la réaction des élites aux actes terroristes, et présente une série d’hypothèses. Le quatrième chapitre détaille la méthodologie utilisée au cours de cette recherche. Les chapitres cinq et six présentent respectivement les résultats des analyses quantitatives et qualitatives. Enfin, le chapitre sept conclut cette thèse en résumant la contribution de l’auteur et en suggérant des pistes de recherche.

States' Responding Behavior in Conflict: Asymmetric Response and Strategic Conflict Avoidance

State responses to external threats and aggression are studied with focus on two different rationales: (1) to make credible deterrent threats to avoid being exploited, and (2) to minimize the risk of escalation to unwanted war. Given external aggression, the target state's responding behavior has three possibilities: concession (under-response), reciprocation, and escalation. This study focuses on the first two possibilities and investigates how the strategic nature of crisis interaction can explain the intentional choice of concession or avoidance of retaliation. I build a two-level bargaining model that accounts for the domestic bargaining situation between the leader and the challenger for each state. The model's equilibrium shows that the responding behavior is determined not only by inter-state level variables (e.g. balance of power between two states, or cost of war that each state is supposed to pay), but also the domestic variables of both states. Next, the strategic interaction is rationally explained by the model: as the responding state believes that the initiating state has strong domestic challenges and, hence, the aggression is believed to be initiated for domestic political purposes (a rally-around-the-flag effect), the response tends to decrease. The concession is also predicted if the target state leader has strong bargaining power against her domestic challengers \emph{and} she believes that the initiating leader suffers from weak domestic standing. To test the model's prediction, I conduct a lab experiment and case studies. The experimental result shows that under an incentivized bargaining situation, individual actors are observed to react to hostile action as the model predicts: if the opponent is believed to suffer from internally driven difficulties, the subject will not punish hostile behavior of the other player as severely as she would without such a belief. The experiment also provides supporting evidence for the choice of concession: when the player finds herself in a favorable situation while the other has disadvantages, the player is more likely to make concessions in the controlled dictator game. Two cases are examined to discuss how the model can explain the choice of either reciprocation or concession. From personal interviews and fieldwork in South Korea, I find that South Korea's reciprocating behavior during the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island incident is explained by a combination of `low domestic power of initiating leader (Kim Jong-il)' and `low domestic power of responding leader (Lee Myung-bak).' On the other hand, the case of EC-121 is understood as a non-response or concession outcome. Declassified documents show that Nixon and his key advisors interpreted the attack as a result of North Korea's domestic political instabilities (low domestic power of initiating leader) and that Nixon did not have difficulties at domestic politics during the first few months of his presidency (high domestic power of responding leader).

Treatment of suicidal people around the world

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide; however, little information is available about the treatment of suicidal people, or about barriers to treatment. Aims To examine the receipt of mental health treatment and barriers to care among suicidal people around the world. Method Twenty-one nationally representative samples worldwide (n=55 302; age 18 years and over) from the World Health Organization`s World Mental Health Surveys were interviewed regarding past-year suicidal behaviour and past-year healthcare use. Suicidal respondents who had not used services in the past year were asked why they had not sought care. Results Two-fifths of the suicidal respondents had received treatment (from 17% in low-income countries to 56% in high-income countries), mostly from a general medical practitioner (22%), psychiatrist (15%) or non-psychiatrist (15%). Those who had actually attempted suicide were more likely to receive care. Low perceived need was the most important reason for not seeking help (58%), followed by attitudinal barriers such as the wish to handle the problem alone (40%) and structural barriers such as financial concerns (15%). Only 7% of respondents endorsed stigma as a reason for not seeking treatment. Conclusions Most people with suicide ideation, plans and attempts receive no treatment. This is a consistent and pervasive finding, especially in low-income countries. Improving the receipt of treatment worldwide will have to take into account culture-specific factors that may influence the process of help-seeking.

IBD sharing around the PPARG locus is not increased in dizygotic twins or their mothers

We observe no evidence of linkage to the region around the PPARG locus in several samples of DZ twins who have been genotyped at multiple markers on chromosome 3 (Fig. 1). Among 199 Australian DZ twins ascertained for a history of wheezing2, mean identity by descent (IBD) sharing at the position of PPARG is 0.463 (99% bootstrapped confidence interval=0.412−0.516). We obtained a similar result with 232 pairs of Australian adolescent DZ twins taking part in a longitudinal study of naevus development3 (0.444, 0.390−0.499), and a set of 125 Australian adult DZ twin pairs assessed for anxiety4 (0.508, 0.435−0.580). A Dutch scan of 160 DZ twin pairs5 obtained slightly more encouraging results (0.553, 0.482−0.587, peak maximum lod score (MLS)=0.57). Pooling all these samples gives 0.477 (0.454−0.512) at the position of PPARG. The test for heterogeneity of sharing between studies was not significant (P=0.10). In the combined dataset, the peak IBD sharing (MLS=0.70) is 50 cM closer to the centromere than PPARG. Finally, in a sample of 203 Australian and New Zealand sister pairs where each had given birth to DZ twins6, sharing across the region is also not increased (0.433). We do not replicate linkage in the populations we study to survival of a twin pregnancy or polyovulation.

Older adults' trait ratings of three age groups around the Pacific rim

In this paper, we assess the traits that older adultsassociate with younger, middle-aged, and older adults in fivePacific Rim nations from Western and Eastern cultural traditions(Australia, People's Republic of China (PRC), Hong Kong,Philippines, Thailand). We find cross-cultural trends whichreplicate patterns found in the US context. In most cultures,attractiveness, strength, activity, liberalism, health, andflexibility are seen to decline with increasing age. Kindnessassessments are positively associated with age across cultures. Mixed patterns are found with assessments of wisdom andgenerosity, with respondents from the PRC and Hong Kong beingnotably more negative about increasing age than otherrespondents. Implications for the aging process across culturesare discussed, and suggestions made for future research.

The presence of the sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) around the Azores: a study of re-sightings from 2003-2012

27th Annual Conference of the European Cetacean Society. Setúbal, Portugal, 8-10 April 2013.

Calcareous nannofossil assemblages around the Pliensbachian/Toarcian boundary in the reference section of Peniche (Portugal)

The Pliensbachian/Toarcian boundary (Lower Jurassic) is well represented in the Lusitanian Basin (Portugal), mainly in the Peniche area, recorded by a marl/limestone series. Calcareous nannofossil assemblages are described herein, with the aim to contribute to the Toarcian GSSP definition. Marly samples were collected 3 m below and 7 m above this boundary and analysed for calcareous nannofossils. The main nannofossils observed were Biscutum finchii, B. grande, Calcivascularis jansae, Crepidolithus crassus, C. granulatus, C. impontus, Lotharingius hauffii, L. sigillatus, L. aff. L. velatus, Schizosphaerella spp. and Tubirhabdus patulus. This assemblage indicates that the Pliensbachian/Toarcian boundary in Peniche lies in the upper part of the NJ5b Subzone. Schizosphaerella and Lotharingius dominate the assemblage. The abundant occurrence of C. jansae and the common occurrence of B. grande indicate a strong Tethyan influence.

Bank capital and stock performance around the subprime lending risis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Who owns the largest firms around the world?

In this research paper we evaluate how corporate control around the world is defined and which variables, related to a firm's characteristics and the countries' infrastructures, influences this. We find that there is a small number of countries where firms are widely held. The role of financial institutions seems to be different in civil and common law-based countries. While they seem to act as a monitor of management in common law-based countries, in civil law countries they act as a monitor of large shareholders. Finally, we find that firm's size is the most important determinant of ultimate owners.

The flow-performance relationship around the world

We use a new dataset to study how mutual fund flows depend on past performance across 28 countries. We show that there are marked differences in the flow-performance relationship across countries, suggesting that US findings concerning its shape do not apply universally. We find that mutual fund investors sell losers more and buy winners less in more developed countries. This is because investors in more developed countries are more sophisticated and face lower costs of participating in the mutual fund industry. Higher country-level convexity is positively associated with higher levels of risk taking by fund managers.