Identificação de áreas com precipitação pluvial homogênea no Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

O estudo da variabilidade da precipitação é importante para o planejamento das atividades econômicas, possibilitando o uso mais eficiente e racional dos recursos hídricos. Dessa forma, o objetivo desta pesquisa é caracterizar o estado do Rio Grande do Norte com relação à variabilidade temporal da precipitação, agrupá-lo em regiões homogêneas e comparar diferentes técnicas de agrupamento. Para o estudo da variabilidade pluvial foram utilizados os índices: Grau de Concentração de Precipitação (PCD), que representa o grau em que a precipitação é distribuída ao longo do ano; e o Período de Concentração de Precipitação (PCP), que reflete o período no qual a precipitação está mais concentrada. Para a realização dos agrupamentos foram escolhidas as variáveis: PCD, PCP, médias da precipitações anuais e médias das precipitações mensais. Posteriormente, foi aplicada a análise de agrupamento para obter grupos com características similares. Os resultados mostraram que as precipitações são melhor distribuídas na região leste do estado, neste caso, os meses mais chuvosos são de maio a agosto. Os municípios localizados nessa área possuem dois picos de chuvas, devido à atuação de dois sistemas: Perturbações Ondulatórias dos Alísios (POA s) e Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ZCIT). Nas regiões localizadas a oeste os meses que possuem maior concentração de chuvas são março e abril, neste caso temos apenas um pico de precipitação, devido a atuação da ZCIT. A identificação de áreas homogêneas favorece o planejamento adequado de acordo com as características de cada grupo formado e o RN pode foi dividido em 4 (quatro) regiões homogêneas. As técnicas de agrupamento utilizadas apresentaram resultados semelhantes, porém, sugere-se o uso de mais de uma técnica para que se possa analisar qual delas reflete melhor a realidade local. O estudo da variabilidade de precipitação, através dos índices estudados e do agrupamento realizado, são ferramentas adequadas ao planejamento ambiental e econômico

Studies on rainfall variability and the influence of orography and land use on the climate of Peninsular India

The present study helped to understand the trend in rainfall patterns at smaller spatial scales and the large regional differences in the variability of rainfall. The effect of land use and orography on the diurnal variability is also understood. But a better understanding on the long term variation in rainfall is possible by using a longer dataset,which may provide insight into the rainfall variation over country during the past century. The basic mechanism behind the interannual rainfall variability would be possible with numerical studies using coupled Ocean-Atmosphere models. The regional difference in the active-break conditions points to the significance of regional studies than considering India as a single unit. The underlying dynamics of diurnal variability need to be studied by making use of a high resolution model as the present study could not simulate the local onshore circulation. Also the land use modification in this study, selected a region, which is surrounded by crop land. This implies the high possibility for the conversion of the remaining region to agricultural land. Therefore the study is useful than considering idealized conditions, but the adverse effect of irrigated crop is more than non-irrigated crop. Therefore, such studies would help to understand the climate changes occurred in the recent period. The large accumulation of rainfall between 300-600 m height of western Ghats has been found but the reason behind this need to be studied, which is possible by utilizing datasets that would better represent the orography and landuse over the region in high resolution model. Similarly a detailed analysis is needed to clearly identify the causative relations of the predictors identified with the predictant and the physical reasons behind them. New approaches that include nonlinear relationships and dynamical variables from model simulations can be included in the existing statistical models to improve the skill of the models. Also the statistical models for the forecasts of monsoon have to be continually updated.

On the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability in Queensland, Australia

Queensland experiences considerable inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability, which impacts water-resource management, agriculture and infrastructure. To understand the mechanisms by which large-scale atmospheric and coupled air–sea processes drive these variations, empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to 1900–2010 seasonal Queensland rainfall. Fields from observations and the 20th Century Reanalysis are regressed onto the EOT timeseries to associate the EOTs with large-scale drivers. In winter, spring and summer the leading, state-wide EOTs are highly correlated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation modulates the summer ENSO teleconnection. In autumn, the leading EOT is associated with locally driven, late-season monsoon variations, while ENSO affects only tropical northern Queensland. Examining EOTs beyond the first, southeastern Queensland and the Cape York peninsula emerge as regions of coherent rainfall variability. In the southeast, rainfall anomalies respond to the strength and moisture content of onshore easterlies, controlled by Tasman Sea blocking. The summer EOT associated with onshore flow and blocking has been negative since 1970, consistent with the observed decline in rainfall along the heavily populated coast. The southeastern Queensland EOTs show considerable multi-decadal variability, which is independent of large-scale drivers. Summer rainfall in Cape York is associated with tropical-cyclone activity.

Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability, and modulation by the MJO

Tropical-extratropical cloud band systems over southern Africa, known as tropical temperate troughs (TTTs), are known to contribute substantially to South African summer rainfall. This study performs a comprehensive assessment of the seasonal cycle and rainfall contribution of TTTs by using a novel object-based strategy that explicitly tracks these systems for their full life cycle. The methodology incorporates a simple assignment of station rainfall data to each event, thereby creating a database containing detailed rainfall characteristics for each TTT. This is used to explore the importance of TTTs for rain days and climatological rainfall totals in October–March. Average contributions range from 30 to 60 % with substantial spatial heterogeneity observed. TTT rainfall contributions over the Highveld and eastern escarpment are lower than expected. A short analysis of TTT rainfall variability indicates TTTs provide substantial, but not dominant, intraseasonal and interannual variability in station rainfall totals. TTTs are however responsible for a high proportion of heavy rainfall days. Of 52 extreme rainfall events in the 1979–1999 period, 30 are associated with these tropical-extratropical interactions. Cut-off lows were included in the evolution of 6 of these TTTs. The study concludes with an analysis of the question: does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence the intensity of TTT rainfall over South Africa? Results suggest a weak but significant suppression (enhancement) of intensity during phase 1(6).

Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers and predictability

Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. We illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool-season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability from the Pacific is greater for wetter than average summer months than for months that are drier than average, whereas for the Indian Ocean the relationship has greater linearity. Several cool-season EOTs are associated with mid-latitude synoptic-scale patterns along the south and east coasts. These patterns have common atmospheric signatures denoting moist onshore flow and strong cyclonic anomalies often to the north of a blocking anti-cyclone. Tropical cyclone activity is observed to have significant relationships with some warm season EOTs. This analysis shows that extreme rainfall variability in Australia can be related to remote drivers and local synoptic-scale patterns throughout the year.

Rainfall variability in the upper Napo River Basin, Ecuadorian Amazon

The purpose of this research was to investigate the influence of elevation and other terrain characteristics over the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. A comparative analysis was conducted between several methods of spatial interpolations using mean monthly precipitation values in order to select the best. Following those previous results it was possible to fit an Artificial Neural Network model for interpolation of monthly precipitation values for a period of 20 years, with input values such as longitude, latitude, elevation, four geomorphologic characteristics and anchored by seven weather stations, it reached a high correlation coefficient (r=0.85). This research demonstrated a strong influence of elevation and other geomorphologic variables over the spatial distribution of precipitation and the agreement that there are nonlinear relationships. This model will be used to fill gaps in time-series of monthly precipitation, and to generate maps of spatial distribution of monthly precipitation at a resolution of 1km2.

Cluster Analysis To Identify Elderly People's Profiles: A Healthcare Strategy Based On Frailty Characteristics.

The new social panorama resulting from aging of the Brazilian population is leading to significant transformations within healthcare. Through the cluster analysis strategy, it was sought to describe the specific care demands of the elderly population, using frailty components. Cross-sectional study based on reviewing medical records, conducted in the geriatric outpatient clinic, Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp). Ninety-eight elderly users of this clinic were evaluated using cluster analysis and instruments for assessing their overall geriatric status and frailty characteristics. The variables that most strongly influenced the formation of clusters were age, functional capacities, cognitive capacity, presence of comorbidities and number of medications used. Three main groups of elderly people could be identified: one with good cognitive and functional performance but with high prevalence of comorbidities (mean age 77.9 years, cognitive impairment in 28.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities); a second with more advanced age, greater cognitive impairment and greater dependence (mean age 88.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 84.6% and mean of 7.1 comorbidities); and a third younger group with poor cognitive performance and greater number of comorbidities but functionally independent (mean age 78.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 89.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities). These data characterize the profile of this population and can be used as the basis for developing efficient strategies aimed at diminishing functional dependence, poor self-rated health and impaired quality of life.

Classification of individuals with dyslipidaemia controlled by statins according to plasma biomarkers of oxidative stress using cluster analysis

Oxidative stress is a physiological condition that is associated with atherosclerosis. and it can be influenced by diet. Our objective was to group fifty-seven individuals with dyslipidaemia controlled by statins according to four oxidative biomarkers, and to evaluate the diet pattern and blood biochemistry differences between these groups. Blood samples were collected and the following parameters were evaluated: diet intake; plasma fatty acids; lipoprotein concentration; glucose; oxidised LDL (oxLDL); malondialdehyde (MDA): total antioxidant activity by 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) and ferric reducing ability power assays. Individuals were separated into five groups by cluster analysis. All groups showed a difference with respect to at least one of the four oxidative stress biomarkers. The separation of individuals in the first axis was based upon their total antioxidant activity. Clusters located on the right side showed higher total antioxidant activity, higher myristic fatty acid and lower arachidonic fatty acid proportions than clusters located on the left side. A negative correlation was observed between DPPH and the peroxidability index. The second axis showed differences in oxidation status as measured by MDA and oxLDL concentrations. Clusters located on the Upper side showed higher oxidative status and lower HDL cholesterol concentration than clusters located on the lower side. There were no differences in diet among the five clusters. Therefore, fatty acid synthesis and HDL cholesterol concentration seem to exert a more significant effect on the oxidative conditions of the individuals with dyslipidaemia controlled by statins than does their food intake.

Cluster analysis of self-awareness levels in adults with traumatic brain injury and relationship to outcome

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between self-awareness, emotional distress, motivation, and outcome in adults with severe traumatic brain injury. A sample of 55 patients were selected from 120 consecutive patients with severe traumatic brain injury admitted to the rehabilitation unit of a large metropolitan public hospital. Subjects received multidisciplinary inpatient rehabilitation and different types of outpatient rehabilitation and community-based services according to availability and need, Measures used in the cluster analysis were the Patient Competency Rating Scale, Self-Awareness of Deficits Interview, Head Injury Behavior Scale, Change Assessment Questionnaire, the Beck Depression Inventory, and Beck Anxiety Inventory; outcome measures were the Disability Rating Scale, Community Integration Questionnaire, and Sickness Impact Profile. A three-cluster solution was selected, with groups labeled as high self-awareness (n = 23), low self-awareness (n = 23), and good recovery (n = 8). The high self-awareness cluster had significantly higher levels of self-awareness, motivation, and emotional distress than the low self-awareness cluster but did not differ significantly in outcome. Self-awareness after brain injury is associated with greater motivation to change behavior and higher levels of depression and anxiety; however, it was not clear that this heightened motivation actually led to any improvement in outcome. Rehabilitation timing and approach may need to be tailored to match the individual's level of self-awareness, motivation, and emotional distress.

Classification System of Raman Spectra using Cluster Analysis to Diagnose Coronary Artery Lesions

The traditional methods employed to detect atherosclerotic lesions allow for the identification of lesions; however, they do not provide specific characterization of the lesion`s biochemistry. Currently, Raman spectroscopy techniques are widely used as a characterization method for unknown substances, which makes this technique very important for detecting atherosclerotic lesions. The spectral interpretation is based on the analysis of frequency peaks present in the signal; however, spectra obtained from the same substance can show peaks slightly different and these differences make difficult the creation of an automatic method for spectral signal analysis. This paper presents a signal analysis method based on a clustering technique that allows for the classification of spectra as well as the inference of a diagnosis about the arterial wall condition. The objective is to develop a computational tool that is able to create clusters of spectra according to the arterial wall state and, after data collection, to allow for the classification of a specific spectrum into its correct cluster.

Residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts in Guimarães (Portugal): a cluster analysis

In this investigation, a cluster analysis was used to separate Guimara˜es (Portugal) residents into clusters according to their perceptions of the impacts of tourism development. This approach is uncommonly applied to Portugal data and is even rarer for world heritage sites. The world heritage designation is believed to make an area more attractive to tourists. The clustering procedure analysed 400 data observations from a Guimara˜es resident survey and revealed the existence of three clusters: the Sceptics, the Moderately Optimistic and the Enthusiasts. The results were consistent with the empirical literature’s results, with the emergent nature of the destination found to be relevant. The fact that tourism is relatively recent in this destination has its major reflex in the devaluation by most of the residents of the negative impacts of tourism development.

Guimarães residents’ perceptions towards tourism impacts: a cluster analysis

The present study was designed to assess and segment local residents with respect to their perceived impacts of Guimarães tourism development. The residents of this municipality (located in the northern part of Portugal) are quite strong in their support to tourism. However, they do not keep a homogeneous perception of tourism impacts. A clusters analysis using data from a survey of 400 Guimarães residents’ has revealed the existence of three clusters, according the different degrees of perceived tourism impacts: the Skeptics - moderate in relation to the benefits (averages range from 2.89-3.74) and the ones more concerned with its costs (averages range from 2.86-3.74); the Moderately optimistic - very optimistic about the benefits of tourism (averages range from 3.74-4.51) and conscious of the costs (averages range from 2.71-3.49); the Enthusiasts - very optimistic about tourism benefits (averages range from 2.92-4.52) and little worried about its costs (averages range from 1.78-3.26). Following the data from the survey, the findings are discussed and a few conclusions are extracted.

Cluster Analysis of Business Data

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Cluster analysis using affinity aoefficient in order to identify religious beliefs profiles

International Scientific Forum, ISF 2013, ISF 2013, 12-14 December 2013, Tirana.

Hierarchical cluster analysis of groups of individuals : application to business data

3rd SMTDA Conference Proceedings, 11-14 June 2014, Lisbon Portugal.