One hundred years of rainfall trends in California

This paper is an examination of precipitation trends in California for 100 years based on 96 rain records. The study resulted from an attempt to develop a wetness index for the San Francisco Bay area, where declining rainfall trends indicated a lot more rainfall in the first 50 years of the study period. A regular pattern of decline was found in California coastal stations, concurrent with an increasing trend at inland stations.

Long-term rainfall trends in Serra da Mantiqueira Environmental Protection Area, southeast Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Trends in Mean Annual Streamflows in Serra da Mantiqueira Environmental Protection Area

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa

Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere-only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr−1 per decade), decreases in March–May East African rainfall (−14 to −65 mm yr−1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr−1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign (−10 to +39 mm yr−1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)-forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r~0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation.

Precipitation variability in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The State of Sao Paulo is the richest in Brazil, responsible for over 30% of the Brazilian gross rate. It has a population of around 30 million and its economy is based on agriculture and industrial products. Any change in climate can have a profound influence on the socio-economics of the State. In order to determine changes in total and extreme rainfall over Sao Paulo State, climate change indices derived from daily precipitation data were calculated using specially designed software. Maps of trends for a subset of 59 rain gauge stations were analysed for the period 1950-1999 and also for a subset of this period, 1990-1999, representing more recent climate. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to the time series. Maps of trends for six annual precipitation indices (annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), events greater than the 95th percentile (R95p), maximum five days precipitation total (RX5day), the length of the largest wet spell (CWD) and the length of the largest dry spell (CDD)) were analysed for the entire period. These exhibited statistically significant trends associated with a wetter climate. A significant increase in PRCPTOT, associated with very heavy precipitation days, were observed at more than 45% of the rain gauge stations. The Mann-Kendall test identified that the positive trend in PRCPTOT is possibly related to the increase in the R95p and R20mm indices. Therefore, the results suggest that there has been a change in precipitation intensity. In contrast, the indices for the more recent shorter time series are significantly different to the longer term indices. The results indicate that intense precipitation is becoming concentrated in a few days and spread over the period when the CDD and R20mm indices show positive trends, while negative ones are seen in the RX5day index. The trends found could be related to many anthropogenic aspects such as biomass burning aerosols and land use.

Las inundaciones en la ciudad de La Plata. Su análisis en relación con las precipitaciones durante las últimas décadas del siglo XX

En la cuenca del Plata, durante las últimas dos décadas del siglo XX, se desarrollaron importantes inundaciones producto de los cambios ocurridos en el sistema climático global y, como el área del Gran La Plata (partidos de Berisso, Ensenada y La Plata) no escapa a este problema, se ha tomado como caso para nuestra investigación. Se analiza la distribución temporal de las precipitaciones en la ciudad de La Plata (provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina), para el período comprendido entre las últimas décadas del siglo XX y la actualidad. En el Gran La Plata el problema de las inundaciones es resultado de la confluencia de tres factores: las precipitaciones (sobre todo cuando se producen con gran intensidad), las napas freáticas que han aumentado su presión hacia arriba por haberse elevado y la sudestada que provoca la crecida de los ríos. El estudio se realizó considerando los valores diarios de precipitación disponibles para la localidad, brindados por estación meteorológica La Plata Aero, dependiente del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, y los datos de inundaciones obtenidos del diario "El Día", de circulación local. La variación temporal se estudió a escala anual y mensual, detectándose cambios en monto e intensidad que, además de responder al incremento de las precipitaciones acaecido en la pradera pampeana en las últimas décadas, son una llamada de atención para la planificación de futuros emprendimientos en la ciudad y toma de decisiones en el caso de eventos hidrológicos extremos, como es el caso de las inundaciones. En los resultados de este análisis se observó que las inundaciones en la década 1971 - 1980 fueron 25, y que se incrementaron a 78 en la última década estudiada (1991-2000).

Las inundaciones en la ciudad de La Plata. Su análisis en relación con las precipitaciones durante las últimas décadas del siglo XX

En la cuenca del Plata, durante las últimas dos décadas del siglo XX, se desarrollaron importantes inundaciones producto de los cambios ocurridos en el sistema climático global y, como el área del Gran La Plata (partidos de Berisso, Ensenada y La Plata) no escapa a este problema, se ha tomado como caso para nuestra investigación. Se analiza la distribución temporal de las precipitaciones en la ciudad de La Plata (provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina), para el período comprendido entre las últimas décadas del siglo XX y la actualidad. En el Gran La Plata el problema de las inundaciones es resultado de la confluencia de tres factores: las precipitaciones (sobre todo cuando se producen con gran intensidad), las napas freáticas que han aumentado su presión hacia arriba por haberse elevado y la sudestada que provoca la crecida de los ríos. El estudio se realizó considerando los valores diarios de precipitación disponibles para la localidad, brindados por estación meteorológica La Plata Aero, dependiente del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, y los datos de inundaciones obtenidos del diario "El Día", de circulación local. La variación temporal se estudió a escala anual y mensual, detectándose cambios en monto e intensidad que, además de responder al incremento de las precipitaciones acaecido en la pradera pampeana en las últimas décadas, son una llamada de atención para la planificación de futuros emprendimientos en la ciudad y toma de decisiones en el caso de eventos hidrológicos extremos, como es el caso de las inundaciones. En los resultados de este análisis se observó que las inundaciones en la década 1971 - 1980 fueron 25, y que se incrementaron a 78 en la última década estudiada (1991-2000).

Las inundaciones en la ciudad de La Plata. Su análisis en relación con las precipitaciones durante las últimas décadas del siglo XX

En la cuenca del Plata, durante las últimas dos décadas del siglo XX, se desarrollaron importantes inundaciones producto de los cambios ocurridos en el sistema climático global y, como el área del Gran La Plata (partidos de Berisso, Ensenada y La Plata) no escapa a este problema, se ha tomado como caso para nuestra investigación. Se analiza la distribución temporal de las precipitaciones en la ciudad de La Plata (provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina), para el período comprendido entre las últimas décadas del siglo XX y la actualidad. En el Gran La Plata el problema de las inundaciones es resultado de la confluencia de tres factores: las precipitaciones (sobre todo cuando se producen con gran intensidad), las napas freáticas que han aumentado su presión hacia arriba por haberse elevado y la sudestada que provoca la crecida de los ríos. El estudio se realizó considerando los valores diarios de precipitación disponibles para la localidad, brindados por estación meteorológica La Plata Aero, dependiente del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, y los datos de inundaciones obtenidos del diario "El Día", de circulación local. La variación temporal se estudió a escala anual y mensual, detectándose cambios en monto e intensidad que, además de responder al incremento de las precipitaciones acaecido en la pradera pampeana en las últimas décadas, son una llamada de atención para la planificación de futuros emprendimientos en la ciudad y toma de decisiones en el caso de eventos hidrológicos extremos, como es el caso de las inundaciones. En los resultados de este análisis se observó que las inundaciones en la década 1971 - 1980 fueron 25, y que se incrementaron a 78 en la última década estudiada (1991-2000).

XRF-scanned elemental concentrations from sediment cores off Peru

We present a high-resolution marine record of sediment input from the Guayas River, Ecuador, that reflects changes in precipitation along western equatorial South America during the last 18ka. We use log (Ti/Ca) derived from X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) to document terrigenous input from riverine runoff that integrates rainfall from the Guayas River catchment. We find that rainfall-induced riverine runoff has increased during the Holocene and decreased during the last deglaciation. Superimposed on those long-term trends, we find that rainfall was probably slightly increased during the Younger Dryas, while the Heinrich event 1 was marked by an extreme load of terrigenous input, probably reflecting one of the wettest period over the time interval studied. When we compare our results to other Deglacial to Holocene rainfall records located across the tropical South American continent, different modes of variability become apparent. The records of rainfall variability imply that changes in the hydrological cycle at orbital and sub-orbital timescales were different from western to eastern South America. Orbital forcing caused an antiphase behavior in rainfall trends between eastern and western equatorial South America. In contrast, millennial-scale rainfall changes, remotely connected to the North Atlantic climate variability, led to homogenously wetter conditions over eastern and western equatorial South America during North Atlantic cold spells. These results may provide helpful diagnostics for testing the regional rainfall sensitivity in climate models and help to refine rainfall projections in South America for the next century.

Long term trends of seasonal and monthly rainfall in different intensity ranges over Indian subcontinent

In general Indian summer monsoon rainfall did not show any significant trend in all Indian summer monsoon rainfall series, however, it was reported that the ISMR is subjected to spatial trends. This paper made an attempt to bring out long term trends of different intensity classes of summer monsoon rainfall in different regions of Indian subcontinent. The long term trend of seasonal and monthly rainfall were also made using the India Meteorological Department gridded daily rainfall data with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid for the period from 1st January, 1901 to 31st December, 2003. The summer monsoon rainfall shows an increasing trend in southeast, northwest and northeast regions, whereas decreasing trend in the central and west coastal regions. In monthly scale, July rainfall shows decreasing trend over west coastal and central Indian regions and significant increasing trend over northeast region at 0.1% significant level. During the month August, decreasing trend is observed in the west coastal stations at 10% significant level. In most of the stations, mean daily rainfall shows an increasing trend for low and very high intense rainfall. For the moderate rainfall, the trend is different for different regions. In the central and southern regions the trend of moderate and moderately high classes show increasing trend. And for the high and very high intensity classes, the trend is decreasing significantly. In the northeastern regions, above 10 mm/day rainfall shows significantly increasing trend with 0.1% significant level.

Long-term Trends in Magnitude and Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events in Florida

This study computed trends in extreme precipitation events of Florida for 1950-2010. Hourly aggregated rainfall data from 24 stations of the National Climatic Data Centre were analyzed to derive time-series of extreme rainfalls for 12 durations, ranging from 1 hour to 7 day. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen Approach were applied to detect the significance of trends in annual maximum rainfalls, number of above threshold events and average magnitude of above threshold events for four common analysis periods. Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach was applied to remove the serial correlations and bootstrap resampling approach was used to detect the field significance of trends. The results for annual maximum rainfall revealed dominant increasing trends at the statistical significance level of 0.10, especially for hourly events in longer period and daily events in recent period. The number of above threshold events exhibited strong decreasing trends for hourly durations in all time periods.

Turbulence characteristics of a small subtropical estuary during and after some moderate rainfall

In natural estuaries, scalar diffusion and dispersion are driven by turbulence. In the present study, detailed turbulence measurements were conducted in a small subtropical estuary with semi-diurnal tides under neap tide conditions. Three acoustic Doppler velocimeters were installed mid-estuary at fixed locations close together. The units were sampled simultaneously and continuously at relatively high frequency for 50 h. The results illustrated the influence of tidal forcing in the small estuary, although low frequency longitudinal velocity oscillations were observed and believed to be induced by external resonance. The boundary shear stress data implied that the turbulent shear in the lower flow region was one order of magnitude larger than the boundary shear itself. The observation differed from turbulence data in a laboratory channel, but a key feature of natural estuary flow was the significant three dimensional effects associated with strong secondary currents including transverse shear events. The velocity covariances and triple correlations, as well as the backscatter intensity and covariances, were calculated for the entire field study. The covariances of the longitudinal velocity component showed some tidal trend, while the covariances of the transverse horizontal velocity component exhibited trends that reflected changes in secondary current patterns between ebb and flood tides. The triple correlation data tended to show some differences between ebb and flood tides. The acoustic backscatter intensity data were characterised by large fluctuations during the entire study, with dimensionless fluctuation intensity I0b =Ib between 0.46 and 0.54. An unusual feature of the field study was some moderate rainfall prior to and during the first part of the sampling period. Visual observations showed some surface scars and marked channels, while some mini transient fronts were observed.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. II. Influence of rainfall patterns

We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.