Where and how to conserve: Extending the scope of spatial reserve network design

Ongoing habitat loss and fragmentation threaten much of the biodiversity that we know today. As such, conservation efforts are required if we want to protect biodiversity. Conservation budgets are typically tight, making the cost-effective selection of protected areas difficult. Therefore, reserve design methods have been developed to identify sets of sites, that together represent the species of conservation interest in a cost-effective manner. To be able to select reserve networks, data on species distributions is needed. Such data is often incomplete, but species habitat distribution models (SHDMs) can be used to link the occurrence of the species at the surveyed sites to the environmental conditions at these locations (e.g. climatic, vegetation and soil conditions). The probability of the species occurring at unvisited location is next predicted by the model, based on the environmental conditions of those sites. The spatial configuration of reserve networks is important, because habitat loss around reserves can influence the persistence of species inside the network. Since species differ in their requirements for network configuration, the spatial cohesion of networks needs to be species-specific. A way to account for species-specific requirements is to use spatial variables in SHDMs. Spatial SHDMs allow the evaluation of the effect of reserve network configuration on the probability of occurrence of the species inside the network. Even though reserves are important for conservation, they are not the only option available to conservation planners. To enhance or maintain habitat quality, restoration or maintenance measures are sometimes required. As a result, the number of conservation options per site increases. Currently available reserve selection tools do however not offer the ability to handle multiple, alternative options per site. This thesis extends the existing methodology for reserve design, by offering methods to identify cost-effective conservation planning solutions when multiple, alternative conservation options are available per site. Although restoration and maintenance measures are beneficial to certain species, they can be harmful to other species with different requirements. This introduces trade-offs between species when identifying which conservation action is best applied to which site. The thesis describes how the strength of such trade-offs can be identified, which is useful for assessing consequences of conservation decisions regarding species priorities and budget. Furthermore, the results of the thesis indicate that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used to account for species-specific requirements for spatial cohesion - in the reserve selection (single-option) context as well as in the multi-option context. Accounting for the spatial requirements of multiple species and allowing for several conservation options is however complicated, due to trade-offs in species requirements. It is also shown that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used for gaining information on factors that drive a species spatial distribution. Such information is valuable to conservation planning, as better knowledge on species requirements facilitates the design of networks for species persistence. This methods and results described in this thesis aim to improve species probabilities of persistence, by taking better account of species habitat and spatial requirements. Many real-world conservation planning problems are characterised by a variety of conservation options related to protection, restoration and maintenance of habitat. Planning tools therefore need to be able to incorporate multiple conservation options per site, in order to continue the search for cost-effective conservation planning solutions. Simultaneously, the spatial requirements of species need to be considered. The methods described in this thesis offer a starting point for combining these two relevant aspects of conservation planning.

Understanding marine reserve function in a seascape genetics context: Nucella lapillus in Strangford Lough (Northern Ireland) as an example

A conservation priority in the marine environment is the establishment of ecologically coherent reserve networks. Since these networks will integrate existent reserves, an understanding of spatial genetic diversity and genetic connectivities between areas is necessary. Using Strangford Lough marine nature reserve (MNR) as a model, spatial genetic analyses were employed to evaluate the function of the lough. Samples of the marine gastropod Nucella lapillus (L.) from 7 locations in the reserve and adjacent areas were screened at 6 microsatellites. Genetic variation was temporally stable. Significant genetic structuring (F-ST = 0.133) was observed among samples. Genetic divergence and isolation by distance indicated reduced gene flow between the marine reserve and coastal samples relative to that between adjacent coastal samples. Partitioning of genetic variation between the reserve and coast was significant (AMOVA, 7.45%, p

Ecological coherence in marine reserve network design: an empirical evaluation of sequential site selection using genetic structure

Ecological coherence is a multifaceted conservation objective that includes some potentially conflicting concepts. These concepts include the extent to which the network maximises diversity (including genetic diversity) and the extent to which protected areas interact with non-reserve locations. To examine the consequences of different selection criteria, the preferred location to complement protected sites was examined using samples taken from four locations around each of two marine protected areas: Strangford Lough and Lough Hyne, Ireland. Three different measures of genetic distance were used: FST, Dest and a measure of allelic dissimilarity, along with a direct assessment of the total number of alleles in different candidate networks. Standardized site scores were used for comparisons across methods and selection criteria. The average score for Castlehaven, a site relatively close to Lough Hyne, was highest, implying that this site would capture the most genetic diversity while ensuring highest degree of interaction between protected and unprotected sites. Patterns around Strangford Lough were more ambiguous, potentially reflecting the weaker genetic structure around this protected area in comparison to Lough Hyne. Similar patterns were found across species with different dispersal capacities, indicating that methods based on genetic distance could be used to help maximise ecological coherence in reserve networks. ⺠Ecological coherence is a key component of marine protected area network design. ⺠Coherence contains a number of competing concepts. ⺠Genetic information from field populations can help guide assessments of coherence. ⺠Average choice across different concepts of coherence was consistent among species. ⺠Measures can be combined to compare the coherence of different network designs.

Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Sensitivity of marine-reserve design to the spatial resolution of socioeconomic data

Socioeconomic considerations should have an important place in reserve design, Systematic reserve-selection tools allow simultaneous optimization for ecological objectives while minimizing costs but are seldom used to incorporate socioeconomic costs in the reserve-design process. The sensitivity of this process to biodiversity data resolution has been studied widely but the issue of socioeconomic data resolution has not previously been considered. We therefore designed marine reserves for biodiversity conservation with the constraint of minimizing commercial fishing revenue losses and investigated how economic data resolution affected the results. Incorporating coarse-resolution economic data from official statistics generated reserves that were only marginally less costly to the fishery than those designed with no attempt to minimize economic impacts. An intensive survey yielded fine-resolution data that, when incorporated in the design process, substantially reduced predicted fishery losses. Such an approach could help minimize fisher displacement because the least profitable grounds are selected for the reserve. Other work has shown that low-resolution biodiversity data can lead to underestimation of the conservation value of some sites, and a risk of overlooking the most valuable areas, and we have similarly shown that low-resolution economic data can cause underestimation of the profitability of some sites and a risk of inadvertently including these in the reserve. Detailed socioeconomic data are therefore an essential input for the design of cost-effective reserve networks.

Source data for Plos ONE publication Redefining thermal regimes to design reserves for coral reefs in the face of climate change

Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (3) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.

Intertidal habitat conservation: identifying conservation targets in the absence of detailed biological information

1. Growing concern associated with threats to the marine environment has resulted in an increased demand for marine reserves that conserve representative and adequate examples of biodiversity. Often, the decisions about where to locate reserves must be made in the absence of detailed information on the patterns of distribution of the biota. Alternative approaches are required that include defining habitats using surrogates for biodiversity. Surrogate measures of biodiversity enable decisions about where to locate marine reserves to be made more reliably in the absence of detailed data on the distribution of species. 2. Intertidal habitat types derived using physical properties of the shoreline were used as a surrogate for intertidal biodiversity to assist with the identification of sites for inclusion in a candidate system of intertidal marine reserves for 17 463 km of the mainland coast of Queensland, Australia. This represents the first systematic approach, on essentially one-dimensional data, using fine-scale (tens to hundreds of metres) intertidal habitats to identify a system of marine reserves for such a large length of coast. A range of solutions would provide for the protection of a representative example of intertidal habitats in Queensland. 3. The design and planning of marine and terrestrial protected areas systems should not be undertaken independently of each other because it is likely to lead to inadequate representation of intertidal habitats in either system. The development of reserve systems specially designed to protect intertidal habitats should be integrated into the design of terrestrial and marine protected area systems. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tradeoffs of different types of species occurrence data for use in systematic conservation planning

Data on the occurrence of species are widely used to inform the design of reserve networks. These data contain commission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be present) and omission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be absent), and the rates of the two types of error are inversely related. Point locality data can minimize commission errors, but those obtained from museum collections are generally sparse, suffer from substantial spatial bias and contain large omission errors. Geographic ranges generate large commission errors because they assume homogenous species distributions. Predicted distribution data make explicit inferences on species occurrence and their commission and omission errors depend on model structure, on the omission of variables that determine species distribution and on data resolution. Omission errors lead to identifying networks of areas for conservation action that are smaller than required and centred on known species occurrences, thus affecting the comprehensiveness, representativeness and efficiency of selected areas. Commission errors lead to selecting areas not relevant to conservation, thus affecting the representativeness and adequacy of reserve networks. Conservation plans should include an estimation of commission and omission errors in underlying species data and explicitly use this information to influence conservation planning outcomes.

Active power reserve for frequency control provided by distributed generators in distribution networks

In a smart grid environment, attention should be paid not only to the power supplied to satisfy loads and system losses but also to the services necessary to provide security and stability to the system: the so-called ancillary services. As they are well known the benefits that distributed generation can bring to electrical systems and to the environment, in this work the possibility that active power reserve for frequency control could be provided by distributed generators (DGs) in an efficient and economical way is explored. The proposed methodology was tested using the IEEE 34-bus distribution test system. The results show improvements in the capacity of the system for this ancillary service and decrease in system losses and payments of the distribution system operator to the DGs.

Cognitive reserve is associated with the functional organization of brain networks in healthy aging: a MEG study

The proportion of elderly people in the population has increased rapidly in the last century and consequently "healthy aging" is expected to become a critical area of research in neuroscience. Evidence reveals how healthy aging depends on three main behavioral factors: social lifestyle, cognitive activity and physical activity. In this study, we focused on the role of cognitive activity, concentrating specifically on educational and occupational attainment factors, which were considered two of the main pillars of cognitive reserve. 21 subjects with similar rates of social lifestyle, physical and cognitive activity were selected from a sample of 55 healthy adults. These subjects were divided into two groups according to their level of cognitive reserve; one group comprised subjects with high cognitive reserve (9 members) and the other contained those with low cognitive reserve (12 members). To evaluate the cortical brain connectivity network, all participants were recorded by Magnetoencephalography (MEG) while they performed a memory task (modified version of the Sternberg¿s Task). We then applied two algorithms (Phase Locking Value & Phase-Lag Index) to study the dynamics of functional connectivity. In response to the same task, the subjects with lower cognitive reserve presented higher functional connectivity than those with higher cognitive reserve. These results may indicate that participants with low cognitive reserve needed a greater 'effort' than those with high cognitive reserve to achieve the same level of cognitive performance. Therefore, we conclude that cognitive reserve contributes to the modulation of the functional connectivity patterns of the aging brain.

Load Profiling for Efficient Route Selection in Multi-Class Networks

High-speed networks, such as ATM networks, are expected to support diverse Quality of Service (QoS) constraints, including real-time QoS guarantees. Real-time QoS is required by many applications such as those that involve voice and video communication. To support such services, routing algorithms that allow applications to reserve the needed bandwidth over a Virtual Circuit (VC) have been proposed. Commonly, these bandwidth-reservation algorithms assign VCs to routes using the least-loaded concept, and thus result in balancing the load over the set of all candidate routes. In this paper, we show that for such reservation-based protocols|which allow for the exclusive use of a preset fraction of a resource's bandwidth for an extended period of time-load balancing is not desirable as it results in resource fragmentation, which adversely affects the likelihood of accepting new reservations. In particular, we show that load-balancing VC routing algorithms are not appropriate when the main objective of the routing protocol is to increase the probability of finding routes that satisfy incoming VC requests, as opposed to equalizing the bandwidth utilization along the various routes. We present an on-line VC routing scheme that is based on the concept of "load profiling", which allows a distribution of "available" bandwidth across a set of candidate routes to match the characteristics of incoming VC QoS requests. We show the effectiveness of our load-profiling approach when compared to traditional load-balancing and load-packing VC routing schemes.

A distributed contention-vector division multiple access (D-CVDMA) protocol for wireless networks

Traditional Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) protocol provides deterministic periodic collision free data transmissions. However, TDMA lacks flexibility and exhibits low efficiency in dynamic environments such as wireless LANs. On the other hand contention-based MAC protocols such as the IEEE 802.11 DCF are adaptive to network dynamics but are generally inefficient in heavily loaded or large networks. To take advantage of the both types of protocols, a D-CVDMA protocol is proposed. It is based on the k-round elimination contention (k-EC) scheme, which provides fast contention resolution for Wireless LANs. D-CVDMA uses a contention mechanism to achieve TDMA-like collision-free data transmissions, which does not need to reserve time slots for forthcoming transmissions. These features make the D-CVDMA robust and adaptive to network dynamics such as node leaving and joining, changes in packet size and arrival rate, which in turn make it suitable for the delivery of hybrid traffic including multimedia and data content. Analyses and simulations demonstrate that D-CVDMA outperforms the IEEE 802.11 DCF and k-EC in terms of network throughput, delay, jitter, and fairness.

ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Effects of species turnover on reserve site selection in a fragmented landscape

Changes in species composition is an important process in many ecosystems but rarely considered in systematic reserve site selection. To test the influence of temporal variability in species composition on the establishment of a reserve network, we compared network configurations based on species data of small mammals and frogs sampled during two consecutive years in a fragmented Atlantic Forest landscape (SE Brazil). Site selection with simulated annealing was carried out with the datasets of each single year and after merging the datasets of both years. Site selection resulted in remarkably divergent network configurations. Differences are reflected in both the identity of the selected fragments and in the amount of flexibility and irreplaceability in network configuration. Networks selected when data for both years were merged did not include all sites that were irreplaceable in one of the 2 years. Results of species number estimation revealed that significant changes in the composition of the species community occurred. Hence, temporal variability of community composition should be routinely tested and considered in systematic reserve site selection in dynamic systems.

Dynamic Lightpath Scheduling in Next-Generation WDM Optical Networks

Lightpath scheduling is an important capability in next-generation wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) optical networks to reserve resources in advance for a specified time period while provisioning end-to-end lightpaths. In this study, we propose an approach to support dynamic lightpath scheduling in such networks. To minimize blocking probability in a network that accommodates dynamic scheduled lightpath demands (DSLDs), resource allocation should be optimized in a dynamic manner. However, for the network users who desire deterministic services, resources must be reserved in advance and guaranteed for future use. These two objectives may be mutually incompatible. Therefore, we propose a two-phase dynamic lightpath scheduling approach to tackle this issue. The first phase is the deterministic lightpath scheduling phase. When a lightpath request arrives, the network control plane schedules a path with guaranteed resources so that the user can get a quick response with the deterministic lightpath schedule. The second phase is the lightpath re-optimization phase, in which the network control plane re-provisions some already scheduled lightpaths. Experimental results show that our proposed two-phase dynamic lightpath scheduling approach can greatly reduce WDM network blocking.