Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Regional climate model applications on sub-regional scales over the Indian monsoon region: The role of domain size on downscaling uncertainty

Regional climate models are becoming increasingly popular to provide high resolution climate change information for impacts assessments to inform adaptation options. Many countries and provinces requiring these assessments are as small as 200,000 km2 in size, significantly smaller than an ideal domain needed for successful applications of one-way nested regional climate models. Therefore assessments on sub-regional scales (e.g., river basins) are generally carried out using climate change simulations performed for relatively larger regions. Here we show that the seasonal mean hydrological cycle and the day-to-day precipitation variations of a sub-region within the model domain are sensitive to the domain size, even though the large scale circulation features over the region are largely insensitive. On seasonal timescales, the relatively smaller domains intensify the hydrological cycle by increasing the net transport of moisture into the study region and thereby enhancing the precipitation and local recycling of moisture. On daily timescales, the simulations run over smaller domains produce higher number of moderate precipitation days in the sub-region relative to the corresponding larger domain simulations. An assessment of daily variations of water vapor and the vertical velocity within the sub-region indicates that the smaller domains may favor more frequent moderate uplifting and subsequent precipitation in the region. The results remained largely insensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, indicating the robustness of the domain size influence on the regional model solutions. These domain size dependent precipitation characteristics have the potential to add one more level of uncertainty to the downscaled projections.

Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis). Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the North Pacific area into the coupled system drastically changes the Arctic climate variability to a point where the Arctic Oscillation becomes an ‘internal mode’ of variability and correlations of year-to-year variability with observational data vanish. In line with previous studies, our simulations provide evidence that Arctic sea ice export is mainly due to ‘internal variability’ within the Arctic region. We conclude that the choice of model domains should be based on physical knowledge of the atmospheric and oceanic processes and not on ‘geographic’ reasons. This is particularly the case for areas like the Arctic, which has very complex feedbacks between components of the regional climate system.

Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

NICaN Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network

NICaN Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network Friday 30th May 2008 Lecture Theatre, Fern House Antrim 2.00 pm - 5.00 pm Welcome, Introductions Stuart MacDonnell, Chair of the Supportive and Palliative Care network welcomed everyone to the meeting. This meeting had been rescheduled to accommodate the validation workshop for the regional palliative care model, which took place on Friday,18th April. Acknowledging the full agenda, several items were pulled forward to accommodate speakers SPC_0809_03 Modernisation and Reform of Supportive and Palliative care Mr MacDonnell welcomed Dr Sonja McIlfatrick and Dr Donna Fitzimons, members of the Phase 1 Project Team for the Modernisation and Reform of palliative care. Their presentation highlighted the journey taken by the Project Team since January 2008 - May 2008. Seeking to deliver the network vision, for any person with palliative care need, cancer or non - cancer, the project team incorporated several methodologies. The literature review identified best practice. An assessment of need including epidemiological data and review of service provision. Consultation reflected the engagement with patients, carers and professional forums, primary care and non-malignant focus groups. The breadth of consultation confirmed the evidence for the identified components of the model. These were validated at the April workshop. External review of the work was provided by Dr Phil Larkin (Galway Uni) Prof David Clark (End of Life Care Observatory, Lancaster University) and Mr Bob Neillans (Chair of the Mid Trent Palliative care network, which has been involved in the Delivering choice programme within Lincolnshire). The Guiding Principles of the model reinforced Patient and family centred care, enhanced community provision and supported by specialists. The components of the model are · Identification of patient with Palliative careened · Holistic Assessment · Integration of services · Coordination of care · End of Life Care and Bereavement Care The consultation process also highlighted the need for Increased Public and Professional Awareness. This was recognised as an encompassing component. Underpinning the model is the need for robust Education and common core values e.g. dignity, choice, advocacy, empowerment, partnership working. Stuart MacDonnell, who also chaired the steering group during the project, congratulated the Project Team for delivering the comprehensive document on schedule. The Report has been submitted to the NICaN Board and the DHSSPSNI. In addition, an outline for Phase 2 of this work has been submitted. Mr MacDonnell recognised that there is real opportunity for palliative care to benefit from the DHSSPSNI commitment to concrete developments. Phase 2 will progress the current high-level components of the model into quality services developments at a local level, demonstrating integration throughout. The methods propose continued engagement with the Delivering Choice Programme enabled through a Central and also Local Teams. The report and the Appendices care available on the NICaN website www.nican@n-i.nhs.uk SPC_0809_01 Chairman's Business · Update on the Cancer Service Framework, the document has been submitted and presented to the Departmental Programme Board. Next stages will include the review of costs and development of a implementation guidance It is hoped that the completed document should be available for public consultation in Autumn 2008. with a launch of the framework document and accompanying implementation guide in Spring 2009. Some funding has already been identified to advance key areas of work including, Advanced communication skills training, peer review and an appointment of a post to develop the cancerni.net, focusing on children and e-learning tools. · Children's and Adolescent Cancer network group , Liz Henderson is to convene a group to consider how this is to be taken forward. · NICaN appointments Recognition was given to the significant contribution made by Dr Gerard Daly during his position as NICaN Lead Clinician, particularly throughout the early establishment of the NICaN. Dr Dermott Hughes (Western Trust) has been appointed as the NICaN Medical Director. The Primary Care Director post has been advertised and it is hoped that the Director of Network will be advertised later in Summer. Endorsement of End of Life care paper. The Paper was presented and endorsed at the March 2008 NICaN Board meeting. Mr David Galloway (Director of Secondary Care) emphasised the need for this important work to be recognised within the regional model to ensure that it is reflected in future models of service delivery Congratulations were again echoed to the Chair of the End of Life Group for this work, Dr Glynis Henry, and the working group Other recognition Mr MacDonnell congratulated the significant achievements across the network. These include: · Dr Francis Robinson (Consultant Palliative Medicine, Western Trust) Awarded - Consultant of the year at the NI Health Care awards. · Mrs Evelyn Whittaker Hospice Nurse Specialist, NI Hospice, Joint Second Prize in the Development award within the International Journal of Palliative Nursing Awards, for her work in development of palliative care education in nursing homes. · Mr Ray Elder is the newly appointed Team Leader of Community Palliative care, SE Trust. · Mrs Bridget Denvir, who managed the establishment of one of the first community multiprofessional palliative care teams is moving to work with establishing integrated teams within the Belfast Trust. Bridget has been an active core member of the network and here contribution has been much appreciated. Mrs Sharon Barr will attend in future. SPC_0809_02 Minutes & matters Arising from Meeting, 13th December 2007 No amendments were made to the draft minutes from the December meeting. These will be posted on the NICaN website for future reference. Palliative Care Research Following consultation, the response to the business case for the All Ireland Institute was forwarded on 22 February 2008 to Prof David Clark. Prof Judith Hill informed the group that terms of tender are now being developed. Awareness raising across academic institutions continues to engage interest in potential partnerships. Atlantic Philantrophies have offered financial support to the venture and match funding is being sought from across jurisdictions. Previous discussions at Network meetings have endorsed the need to establish a work strand for research and development within palliative and end of life care. To identify the body of interested parties and explore the strengths and weaknesses of a collaborative model for research, a workshop, - Building collaboration for Palliative and End of life Care Research -will take place on 4 June 10am - 2pm.in the Comfort Hotel.Antrim, The workshop will be chaired by Prof David Clark, Director of the International Observatory on End of Life Care. Prof Shelia Payne, Help the Hospices Chair in Hospice Studies and co director of the Cancer Experiences Collaborative will present the Experiences and Results from Research Collaborative. Feedback from this event will be brought back to the next meeting in September. SPC_0809_04 Patient Information pathways - a pathway for advanced disease Ms Danny Sinclair, NICaN Regional Coordinator for Patient Information informed the network of how patient information pathways have been developed in line with the Cancer Services Collaborative. Emerging themes, with regard to information needs of patients with advanced disease, are being identified from the work undertaken across the tumour groups. It is important to identify all information needs to develop a generic pathway of information resources for advanced disease to be endorsed by the Supportive and Palliative care network. This could be used across the all tumour specific information pathways and across organisational boundaries. The resulting pathway could potentially be used for non- cancer condition. A group is to be established to take this work forward. The group will: · Develop a list of advanced disease information themes · .Identify when they become relevant for the patient or their carer · .Identify existing resources · .Develop resources where needed · .Participate or nominate when review is required Dr Sheila Kelly nominated Helen Hume (SETrust) Paula Kealey will also contribute to this work; a nomination from the Patient and Public Information Forum has also been identified. A date will be circulated across the network to engage further interest and establish group SPC_0809_08 Development of a Regional Syringe Driver Prescription Chart Ms Kathy Stephenson reported that the second consultation of the draft regional syringe driver prescription chart and the focus group discussions, Pilots of the chart are to be undertaken within Trust, Hospices and General Practices. SPC_0809_05 A framework for Generalist and Specialist Palliative and End of Life Care Competency Dr Kathleen Dunne, lead of the Education works strand, reported on the findings following consultation of the Education framework. The report was widely appreciated across the network and valued as a significant and timely document for the commissioning of generalist and specialist adult palliative care education. Mr MacDonnell congratulated Dr Dunne and the members of the education workstrand for developing the framework aligning its significance to the underpinning needs of the regional model Amendments will be made to the document and then forwarded to the NICaN Board for endorsement. A process of implementation will be explored and reported to the network group at the September meeting. Key target areas for generalist palliative care education were highlighted within care of the elderly and general medicine. . SPC_0809_06 Pallcareni.net-a website for people with palliative care needs Ms Danny Sinclair, reminded the group of the pending amalgamation of the CAPriCORN and NICaN website. The resulting new web address will be www. cancerni.net. Recurrent funding has been secured to ensure the development of the supportive and palliative care website.www.Pallcareni.net The new website will host good information for people with palliative care needs, regardless of diagnosis. It will be accessible via the cancerni.net portal or independently as the pallcareni portal. It will signpost people with palliative care needs to condition- specific websites. The website will also enable the communication needs of the NI Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network. This is a very significant method of seeking to enable greater understanding of palliative care for public and professionals, as highlighted within the regional model. Currently the material from the CAPriCORN website is being migrated onto cancerni and /or pallcareni.net as appropriate. To enable the further development of this opportunity a steering group of interested individuals is to be established. Their role will be to: · Drive the development of the website so it meets the needs of public and professionals through the sourcing and development of additional content · Identify any support that is needed, e.g. technical support · Review the website as a whole as it grows (coordinating condition-specific developments) · Review the functions of the website to aid communication throughout the Supportive and Palliative care network The steering group representation should reflect the constituencies within the Supportive and Palliative Care network. Current expressions of interest have come from Heather Reid and Valerie Peacock. A date will be circulated across the network to engage further interest and establish group SPC_0809_07 Update of Guidelines workstrand Dr Pauline Wilkinson presented the current work within the guidelines workstrand. 1. Brief Holistic Assessment & Referral Criteria to Specialist Palliative Care The development of an Holistic assessment Tool will help to identify holistic need at generalist and specialist level. Recognition of complex need prompts appropriate referral to specialist palliative care. The regional referral form is compatible with the Minimum Data set. The final drafts of this work are to be circulated widely, inclusive of service framework groups, primary care, secondary care and the supportive and palliative care network. Consultation will take place during June and July. Piloting of the forms will also be undertaken. 2. Control of Pain in Cancer Patients The original guidelines where developed 2003 and are now ready for review. The Mapping exercise, undertaken in May 2007, highlighted that the Guidelines were poorly adopted. The group have reviewed the pending SIGN 2 guidelines for pain with regard to practice in Northern Ireland. These are highly evidence based and are due to be launched this Summer. Whilst an excellent resource their comprehensiveness limits their readability, this may result in poor compliance. The Guidelines group feel it is important to have accessible and user-friendly guidelines particularly for Generalists and Out of hours. There are examples of good work that has taken place across the province, but there is a need for regional consistency. Dr Wilkinson has contacted Dr Carolyn Harper (Deputy CMO) and GAIN with regard to enabling funding to progress this work. The Guidelines group hope to approach the NICaN Primary Care Group to work in collaboratively on this piece, based on the templates already available. The works should be available in both electronic and paper versions. 3. Care of the dying & Breaking bad news Dr Gail Johnston has now completed an Audit of the Care of the Dying Pathways within the EHSSB. Gail is also seeking to examine to what extent the Regional Guidelines for Breaking Bad News are being implemented in the EHSSB with a view to identifying the need for further training or organisational structures that would facilitate future uptake. 4. Advances in new Technology Syringe Drivers Dr Wilkinson reported on a presentation made to the guidelines group by Mr Jim Elliot, Principle Engineer, Cardiology & Ann McLean, and Macmillan Palliative Care Nurse RVH. There is increasing concern with regard to how devices meet the recommended safety standards and how to reduce error. New devices have 3 point checking, automatic detection of syringe, automatic flow rates, full range of alarms, battery status and data download to provide an event log. There are now 2 companies in UK who have devices that meet these safety criteria. The current Graseby syringe drivers, which have been on the market and used predominately within Northern Ireland over the past 27 years Most new devices are not compatible with the regionally available monoject syringe, however contractual changes will lead to the withdrawal of the monoject syringes in October 2008. The Guidelines group supports a regional approach to this matter. This was echoed in the Supportive and Palliative care network. An option appraisal, identifying costs, and training issues should be developed through the engagement with Trusts and DHSSPSNI. The issue of Patient safety should be raised with the DHSSPSNI. SPC_0809_09 Evaluation of Supportive and Palliative Care network Deferred to next meeting. . SPC_0809_10 Emerging Issues Mrs Anne Coyle, Bereavement Coordinator, Southern Trust, announced that the Regional Bereavement Strategy is soon to be released. Anne supported the close alignment between the content of the strategy and the work of the regional model and other workstrands within the Supportive and Palliative care network. Ms Eleanor Donaghy, Transplant Coordinator, briefly highlighted the issue of tissue donation. Each year Northern Ireland has a dearth of corneal donations. There is no upper age limit for donation and retrieval is not limited by a cancer diagnosis. Recipients do not require immunosuppressive and the transplant is lifelong. The National Blood Service provided coordination of this donation they may be contacted via 07659180773. It is hoped that Mrs Coyle and Ms Donaghy could provide more comprehensive presentations at a future meeting. Events · Irish Psycho- Oncology Group Seminar, Cork 6 June, Exploring the Struggle for meaning in Cancer · Integrated Care: Putting Research into Practice, 13June, Trinity College, Dublin · Macmillan online conference Friday 13 June 2008, 9am - 5pm · Delivering effective end of life care: developing partnership working 15 Oct 2008, 9.30 -4.15 pm London Network Meeting was closed at 5.00pm SPC_0607_ Dates of Future Meetings (please note the change of venue) 10th September 2008, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided15th January 2009, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided12th May 2009, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided Attendances Apologies Stuart MacDonnellLorna NevinSonja McIlfatrick Donna FitzsimonsKathleen DunnePauline WilkinsonKathy StephensonSheila KellyMarie Nugent,Anne CoyleFiona GilmourJudith HillLorna DicksonMargaret CarlinLoretta GribbenYvonne Duff Lesley NelsonLiz HendersonSue FosterCathy PayneGraeme PaynePatricia MageeGeraldine WeatherupPaula KealyCaroline McAfeeLinda WrayValerie PeacockAnn McCleanRay Elder Martin BradleyHelen HumeGillian RankinHeather MonteverdeJulie DoyleAlison PorterYvonne SmythLiz Atkinson,Glynis HenryMaeve HullyCaroline HughesAnn FinnBob BrownSharon BarrJulie DoyleJanis McCulla .

Validation of ocean model syntheses against hydrography using a new web application

Results are presented from a new web application called OceanDIVA - Ocean Data Intercomparison and Visualization Application. This tool reads hydrographic profiles and ocean model output and presents the data on either depth levels or isotherms for viewing in Google Earth, or as probability density functions (PDFs) of regional model-data misfits. As part of the CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel, an intercomparison of water mass properties of various ocean syntheses has been undertaken using OceanDIVA. Analysis of model-data misfits reveals significant differences between the water mass properties of the syntheses, such as the ability to capture mode water properties.

Changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene: insights from global and regional climate modelling

Palaeoproxy records alone are seldom sufficient to provide a full assessment of regional palaeoclimates. To better understand the possible changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene, a series of palaeoclimate integrations for periods spanning the last 12 000 years have been performed and their results diagnosed. These simulations use the HadSM3 global climate model, which is then dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km using a consistent regional climate model (HadRM3). Changes in the model’s seasonal-mean surface air temperatures and precipitation are discussed at both global and regional scales, along with the physical mechanisms underlying the changes. It is shown that the global model reproduces many of the large-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate (consistent with previous studies) and that the results suggest that many areas within the Mediterranean region were wetter during winter with a stronger seasonal cycle of surface air temperatures during the early Holocene. This precipitation signal in the regional model is strongest in the in the northeast Mediterranean (near Turkey), consistent with low-level wind patterns and earlier palaeosyntheses. It is, however, suggested that further work is required to fully understand the changes in the winter circulation patterns over the Mediterranean region.

Regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 1. Description and validation

The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller-scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Ocean and the European shelves as well as their impact on the North Atlantic and European climate. The goal of this paper is to introduce the global ocean-regional atmosphere coupling concept and to show the potential benefits of this model system to simulate present-day climate. A global ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model (MPIOM/HAMOCC) with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model (REMO) and global terrestrial hydrology model (HD) via the OASIS coupler. Moreover, results obtained with ROM using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ECHAM5/MPIOM CMIP3 historical simulations as boundary conditions are presented and discussed for the North Atlantic and North European region. The validation of all the model components, i.e., ocean, atmosphere, terrestrial hydrology, and ocean biogeochemistry is performed and discussed. The careful and detailed validation of ROM provides evidence that the proposed model system improves the simulation of many aspects of the regional climate, remarkably the ocean, even though some biases persist in other model components, thus leaving potential for future improvement. We conclude that ROM is a powerful tool to estimate possible impacts of climate change on the regional scale.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

A geoprocessing approach for studying and controlling schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Geographical information systems (GIS) are tools that have been recently tested for improving our understanding of the spatial distribution of disease. The objective of this paper was to further develop the GIS technology to model and control schistosomiasis using environmental, social, biological and remote-sensing variables. A final regression model (R² = 0.39) was established, after a variable selection phase, with a set of spatial variables including the presence or absence of Biomphalaria glabrata, winter enhanced vegetation index, summer minimum temperature and percentage of houses with water coming from a spring or well. A regional model was also developed by splitting the state of Minas Gerais (MG) into four regions and establishing a linear regression model for each of the four regions: 1 (R² = 0.97), 2 (R² = 0.60), 3 (R² = 0.63) and 4 (R² = 0.76). Based on these models, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for MG. In this paper, geostatistics was also used to make inferences about the presence of Biomphalaria spp. The result was a map of species and risk areas. The obtained risk map permits the association of uncertainties, which can be used to qualify the inferences and it can be thought of as an auxiliary tool for public health strategies.

Development of a New Process for Determining Design Year Traffic Demands, TR-528, 2007

Researchers should continuously ask how to improve the models we rely on to make financial decisions in terms of the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of roadways. This project presents an alternative tool that will supplement local decision making but maintain a full appreciation of the complexity and sophistication of today’s regional model and local traffic impact study methodologies. This alternative method is tailored to the desires of local agencies, which requested a better, faster, and easier way to evaluate land uses and their impact on future traffic demands at the sub-area or project corridor levels. A particular emphasis was placed on scenario planning for currently undeveloped areas. The scenario planning tool was developed using actual land use and roadway information for the communities of Johnston and West Des Moines, Iowa. Both communities used the output from this process to make regular decisions regarding infrastructure investment, design, and land use planning. The City of Johnston case study included forecasting future traffic for the western portion of the city within a 2,600-acre area, which included 42 intersections. The City of West Des Moines case study included forecasting future traffic for the city’s western growth area covering over 30,000 acres and 331 intersections. Both studies included forecasting a.m. and p.m. peak-hour traffic volumes based upon a variety of different land use scenarios. The tool developed took goegraphic information system (GIS)-based parcel and roadway information, converted the data into a graphical spreadsheet tool, allowed the user to conduct trip generation, distribution, and assignment, and then to automatically convert the data into a Synchro roadway network which allows for capacity analysis and visualization. The operational delay outputs were converted back into a GIS thematic format for contrast and further scenario planning. This project has laid the groundwork for improving both planning and civil transportation decision making at the sub-regional, super-project level.

Archaeological and archaeomagnetic dating at a site from the ager Tarraconensis (Tarragona, Spain): El Vila-sec Roman pottery

A very accurate archaeological dating of a Roman site in NE Spain (El Vila-sec) was made based on the typology of pottery artifacts. Three different phases were identifi ed with activity ranging from the mid- 1st century BC to the early-3rd century AD. Analyses of bricks from kilns at El Vila-sec produced data on their stored archaeomagnetic vector. These data were compared with the secular variation curve for the Iberian Peninsula and the SCHA.DIF.3K regional archaeomagnetic model. Both, the reference curve and the model, produced probability distributions for the final period of use for two kilns from the second archaeological phase that were not used during the third phase. At a 95% con fidence level, both time distributions cover a wide chronological range including the presumed archaeological age. Both the Iberian secular variation curve and the SCHA.DIF.3K regional model proved to be suitable models for dating the site, although on their own they do not produce a single unambiguous solution. This archaeomagnetic approach could also be applied to neighbouring archaeological sites that have an imprecise archaeological age.

Ammattiosaamisennäytöt ja työssäoppiminen toisen asteen koulutuksessa

Opetusviranomaiset ovat pohtineet keinoja nuorisoasteen (toisen asteen) ammatillisen koulutuksen laadun varmistamiseksi, kehittämiseksi ja kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi. Yhtenä tällaisena keinona on tuotettu työssä oppimisjärjestelmä ja siihen on liitetty elokuusta 2006 alkaen ammattiosaamisen näytöt. Näyttöjen perustana on laki ammatillisesta koulutuksesta. Opiskelija osoittaa ammattiosaamistaan näytöissä opiskelusuunnitelmaan sisältyviä työtehtäviä tehden. Kolmivuotiseen (120 ov) perustutkinnon koulutukseen sisältyy työssäoppimista vähintään 20 ov. Näytöt pyritään järjestämään työssäoppimisen yhteydesssä opiskelijoiden työssäoppimispaikoilla. Arvioinnin ja palautteen osuus on tärkeä ja siinä mukana opiskelija, työpaikkaohjaaja ja opettaja. Tässä työssä on tuotettu yleinen toimintamalli näyttöjen toteuttamiseksityössäoppimisen yhteydessä. Toisena on tuotettu alueellinen vastaava toimintamalli oppilaitostasolle kone- ja metallialalle. Mallissa on huomioitu alueen teollisuuden erityispiirteet. Edellisten lisäksi on myös tuotettu toimintamalli oppilaitoskohtaisesta soveltamisesta näyttöjen toteuttamiseen kone- ja metallialalla yksilötasolle saakka. Järjestelmän käyttöönotto eri toimijoiden kesken on käynnistynyt. Sen onnistunut toteutus vaatii jatkuvaa innovatiivisuutta ja taloudellisia resursseja jokaisen siihen osallistuvan tahon osalta. Tällöin on saavutettavissa uudistuksen tarkoitus: koulutuksen laadun konkreettinen varmistaminen ja kehittäminen.

Current status of the waste-to-energy chain in the County of North Savo, Finland

The aim of this report is to describe the current status of the waste-to-energy chain in the province of Northern Savonia in Finland. This work is part of the Baltic Sea Region Programme project Remowe-Regional Mobilizing of Sustainable Waste-to-Energy Production (2009-2012). Partnering regions across Baltic Sea countries have parallelly investigated the current status, bottle-necks and needs for development in their regions. Information about the current status is crucial for the further work within the Remowe project, e.g. in investigating the possible future status in target regions. Ultimate result from the Northern Savonia point of view will be a regional model which utilizes all available information and facilitates decision-making concerning energy utilization of waste. The report contains information on among others: - waste management system (sources, amounts, infrastructure) - energy system (use, supply, infrastructure) - administrative structure and legislation - actors and stakeholders in the waste-to-energy field, including interest and development ideas The current status of the regions will be compared in a separate Remowe report, with the focus on finding best practices that could be transferred among the regions. In this report, the current status has been defined as 2006-2009. In 2009, the municipal waste amount per capita was 479 kg/inhabitant in Finland. Industrial waste amounted 3550 kg/inhabitant, respectively. The potential bioenergy from biodegradable waste amounts 1 MWh/inhabitant in Northern Savonia. This figure includes animal manure, crops that would be suitable for energy use, sludge from municipal sewage treatment plants and separately collected biowaste. A key strategy influencing also to Remowe work is the waste plan for Eastern Finland. Currently there operate two digestion plants in Northern Savonia: Lehtoniemi municipal sewage treatment sludge digestion plant of Kuopion Vesi and the farm-scale research biogas plant of Agrifood Research Finland in Maaninka. Moreover, landfill gas is collected to energy use from Heinälamminrinne waste management centre and Silmäsuo closed landfill site, both belonging to Jätekukko Oy. Currently there is no thermal utilization of waste in Northern Savonia region. However, Jätekukko Oy is pretreating mixed waste and delivering refuse derived fuel (RDF) to Southern Finland to combustion. There is a strong willingness among seven regional waste management companies in Eastern Finland to build a waste incineration plant to Riikinneva waste management centre near city of Varkaus. The plant would use circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler. This would been a clear boost in waste-to-energy utilization in Northern Savonia and in many surrounding regions.