Indirect likelihood inference

Given a sample from a fully specified parametric model, let Zn be a given finite-dimensional statistic - for example, an initial estimator or a set of sample moments. We propose to (re-)estimate the parameters of the model by maximizing the likelihood of Zn. We call this the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) estimator. We also propose a computationally tractable Bayesian version of the estimator which we refer to as a Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimator. In most cases, the density of the statistic will be of unknown form, and we develop simulated versions of the MIL and BIL estimators. We show that the indirect likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, with the same asymptotic variance as that of the corresponding efficient two-step GMM estimator based on the same statistic. However, our likelihood-based estimators, by taking into account the full finite-sample distribution of the statistic, are higher order efficient relative to GMM-type estimators. Furthermore, in many cases they enjoy a bias reduction property similar to that of the indirect inference estimator. Monte Carlo results for a number of applications including dynamic and nonlinear panel data models, a structural auction model and two DSGE models show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.

Ethanol steam reforming for production of hydrogen on magnesium aluminate-supported cobalt catalysts promoted by noble metals

The performance of noble metal (Pt, Ru, Ir)-promoted Co/MgAl(2)O(4) catalysts for the steam reforming of ethanol was investigated. The catalysts were characterized by energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, Xray diffraction, UV-vis diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, temperature-programmed reduction, temperature-programmed oxidation and X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES). The results showed that the formation of inactive cobalt aluminate was suppressed by the presence of a MgAl(2)O(4) spinel phase. The effects of the noble metals included a marked lowering of the reduction temperatures of the cobalt surface species interacting with the support. It was seen that the addition of noble metal stabilized the Co sites in the reduced state throughout the reaction. Catalytic performance was enhanced in the promoted catalysts, particularly CoRu/MgAl(2)O(4), which showed the highest selectivity for H(2) production. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk reduction and diversification in UK commercial property portfolios

The issue of diversification in direct real estate investment portfolios has been widely studied in academic and practitioner literature. Most work, however, has been done using either partially aggregated data or data for small samples of individual properties. This paper reports results from tests of both risk reduction and diversification that use the records of 10,000+ UK properties tracked by Investment Property Databank. It provides, for the first time, robust estimates of the diversification gains attainable given the returns, risks and cross‐correlations across the individual properties available to fund managers. The results quantify the number of assets and amount of money needed to construct both ‘balanced’ and ‘specialist’ property portfolios by direct investment. Target numbers will vary according to the objectives of investors and the degree to which tracking error is tolerated. The top‐level results are consistent with previous work, showing that a large measure of risk reduction can be achieved with portfolios of 30–50 properties, but full diversification of specific risk can only be achieved in very large portfolios. However, the paper extends previous work by demonstrating on a single, large dataset the implications of different methods of calculating risk reduction, and also by showing more disaggregated results relevant to the construction of specialist, sector‐focussed funds.

Digest and summary of work of the sub-committee on reduction of local taxation submitted to the Property tax relief commission ...

Mode of access: Internet.

Residential property loans and performance during property price booms: evidence from European

Understanding the performance of banks is of the u tmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of performance. Using a dynamic panel model , we analyse the impact of res idential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk , based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union ( EU - 15 ) , over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weight s in residential mortgage loans display lower credit risk in good market conditions . This result may explain why banks rush to lend on property during b ooms due to the positive effect it has on credit risk . The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cy cle. Furthermore, t he results reveal the existence of a non - linear relationship ( U - shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and residential mortgage exposure . For those banks that have high er credit risk, a large exposur e to residential loans is associated with increased risk - adjusted profitability, through a reduction in risk. For banks with a moderate to low credit risk, the impact of higher exposure are also positive on risk - adjusted profitability.

Strategies for price reduction of HIV medicines under a monopoly situation in Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze Government strategies for reducing prices of antiretroviral medicines for HIV in Brazil. METHODS Analysis of Ministry of Health purchases of antiretroviral medicines, from 2005 to 2013. Expenditures and costs of the treatment per year were analyzed and compared to international prices of atazanavir. Price reductions were estimated based on the terms of a voluntary license of patent rights and technology transfer in the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement for atazanavir. RESULTS Atazanavir, a patented medicine, represented a significant share of the expenditures on antiretrovirals purchased from the private sector. Prices in Brazil were higher than international references, and no evidence was found of a relationship between purchase volume and price paid by the Ministry of Health. Concerning the latest strategy to reduce prices, involving local production of the 200 mg capsule, the price reduction was greater than the estimated reduction. As for the 300 mg capsule, the amounts paid in the first two years after the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement were close to the estimated values. Prices in nominal values for both dosage forms remained virtually constant between 2011 (the signature of the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement), 2012 and 2013 (after the establishment of the Partnership). CONCLUSIONS Price reduction of medicines is complex in limited-competition environments. The use of a Partnership for Productive Development Agreement as a strategy to increase the capacity of local production and to reduce prices raises issues regarding its effectiveness in reducing prices and to overcome patent barriers. Investments in research and development that can stimulate technological accumulation should be considered by the Government to strengthen its bargaining power to negotiate medicines prices under a monopoly situation.

Does land titling matter? The role of land property rights in the war on illicit crops in Colombia

This paper analyzes the role of formalization of land property rights in the war against illicit crops in Colombia. We argue that as a consequence of the increase of state presence and visibility during the period of 2000 and 2009, municipalities with a higher level of formalization of their land property rights saw a greater reduction in the area allocated to illicit crops. We hypothesize that this is due to the increased cost of growing illicit crops on formal land compared to informal, and due to the possibility of obtaining more benets in the newly in- stalled institutional environment when land is formalized. We exploit the variation in the level of formalization of land property rights in a set of municipalities that had their rst cadastral census collected in the period of 1994-2000; this selection procedure guarantees reliable data and an unbiased source of variation. Using fixed effects estimators, we found a signicant negative relationship between the level of formalization of land property rights and the number of hectares allocated to coca crops per municipality. These results remain robust through a number of sensitivity analyses. Our ndings contribute to the growing body of evidence on the positive effects of formal land property rights, and e ective policies in the war on drugs in Colombia.

Economic Impacts Of Air Pollution on Human Health and Property Values

The objectives of the present study are to provide a systematic descriptive documentation of the nature of air pollution of the Cochin industrial agglomeration, estimate the willingness to pay for morbidity reduction due to air pollution in observed and hypothetical markets and to estimate the value of welfare loss in the purchase of property due to reduced air quality. This study is an attempt to examine economic impacts of air pollution on the human health and property values in the industrial capital of Kerala. The process of industrialization in Kerala and the increase in air pollution created damages to human, natural and economic resources in the state. The study documents the extent of air pollution and applied econometric approaches to estimate economic impacts of air pollution on human health and property values. The Important sources of air pollution identified in Cochin are emissions from industries and automobiles.

Electron Donating Property and Catalytic Activity of Perovskite-type Mixed Oxides (ABO3 ) Consisting of Rare Earth and 3d Transition Metals

The catalytic activity of Perovskite-type mixed oxides (LaCo03 . PrCo03 and SmCo03 ) for the reduction of cyclohexanone to cyclohexanol with 2-propanol (Meerwein-Ponndorf-Verley reduction) has been studied. The data have been correlated with the surface electron donor properties of these mixed oxides.

Understanding Subsystems in Biology through Dimensionality Reduction, Graph Partitioning and Analytical Modeling

Biological systems exhibit rich and complex behavior through the orchestrated interplay of a large array of components. It is hypothesized that separable subsystems with some degree of functional autonomy exist; deciphering their independent behavior and functionality would greatly facilitate understanding the system as a whole. Discovering and analyzing such subsystems are hence pivotal problems in the quest to gain a quantitative understanding of complex biological systems. In this work, using approaches from machine learning, physics and graph theory, methods for the identification and analysis of such subsystems were developed. A novel methodology, based on a recent machine learning algorithm known as non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), was developed to discover such subsystems in a set of large-scale gene expression data. This set of subsystems was then used to predict functional relationships between genes, and this approach was shown to score significantly higher than conventional methods when benchmarking them against existing databases. Moreover, a mathematical treatment was developed to treat simple network subsystems based only on their topology (independent of particular parameter values). Application to a problem of experimental interest demonstrated the need for extentions to the conventional model to fully explain the experimental data. Finally, the notion of a subsystem was evaluated from a topological perspective. A number of different protein networks were examined to analyze their topological properties with respect to separability, seeking to find separable subsystems. These networks were shown to exhibit separability in a nonintuitive fashion, while the separable subsystems were of strong biological significance. It was demonstrated that the separability property found was not due to incomplete or biased data, but is likely to reflect biological structure.

Property funds: how much diversification is enough?

t is well known that when assets are randomly-selected and combined in equal proportions in a portfolio, the risk of the portfolio declines as the number of different assets increases without affecting returns. In other words, increasing portfolio size should improve the risk/return trade-off compared with a portfolio of asset size one. Therefore, diversifying among several property funds may be a better alternative for investors compared to holding only one property fund. Nonetheless, it also well known that with naïve diversification although risk always decreases with portfolio size, it does so at a decreasing rate so that at some point the reduction in portfolio risk, from adding another fund, becomes negligible. Based on this fact, a reasonable question to ask is how much diversification is enough, or in other words, how many property funds should be included in a portfolio to minimise return volatility.

Perspectives on the role of UK planning in land and property markets

There is a popular view that land use planning regulations (‘planning’) is hostile to both development and the development industry. Part of the reason for the prominence of this view is the homogenising of the notion of ‘planning’ and its reduction to development control. This paper argues that panning controls in the UK are far more sophisticated and, drawing upon empirical evidence of key property interests proposes a more complex and nuanced view of planning controls that, in large part, has the support of the developers and others.

Real estate portfolio size and risk reduction

The reduction of portfolio risk is important to all investors but is particularly important to real estate investors as most property portfolios are generally small. As a consequence, portfolios are vulnerable to a significant risk of under-performing the market, or a target rate of return and so investors may be exposing themselves to greater risk than necessary. Given the potentially higher risk of underperformance from owning only a few properties, we follow the approach of Vassal (2001) and examine the benefits of holding more properties in a real estate portfolio. Using Monte Carlo simulation and the returns from 1,728 properties in the IPD database, held over the 10-year period from 1995 to 2004, the results show that increases in portfolio size offers the possibility of a more stable and less volatile return pattern over time, i.e. down-side risk is diminished with increasing portfolio size. Nonetheless, increasing portfolio size has the disadvantage of restricting the probability of out-performing the benchmark index by a significant amount. In other words, although increasing portfolio size reduces the down-side risk in a portfolio, it also decreases its up-side potential. Be that as it may, the results provide further evidence that portfolios with large numbers of properties are always preferable to portfolios of a smaller size.

Portfolio size and the reduction of dispersion: the case of the United Kingdom commercial real estate market

This paper investigates the potential benefits and limitations of equal and value-weighted diversification using as the example the UK institutional property market. To achieve this it uses the largest sample (392) of actual property returns that is currently available, over the period 1981 to 1996. To evaluate these issues two approaches are adopted; first, an analysis of the correlations within the sectors and regions and secondly simulations of property portfolios of increasing size constructed both naively and with value-weighting. Using these methods it is shown that the extent of possible risk reduction is limited because of the high positive correlations between assets in any portfolio, even when naively diversified. It is also shown that portfolios exhibit high levels of variability around the average risk, suggesting that previous work seriously understates the number of properties needed to achieve a satisfactory level of diversification. The results have implications for the development and maintenance of a property portfolio because they indicate that the achievable level of risk reduction depends upon the availability of assets, the weighting system used and the investor’s risk tolerance.

Risk reduction and real estate portfolio size

Despite a number of papers that discuss the advantages of increased size on risk levels in real estate portfolios there is remarkably little empirical evidence based on actual portfolios. The objective of this paper is to remedy this deficiency by examining the portfolio risk of a large sample of actual property data over the period 1981 to 1996. The results show that all that can be said is that portfolios of properties of a large size, on the average, tend to have lower risks than small sized portfolios. More importantly portfolios of a few properties can have very high or very low risk.