Clinical and pathologic prognostic factors for curative resection for pancreatic cancer

Background. Pancreatic cancer is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the world. Operative resection is the only therapeutic option with curative potential for this disease. Objective. The aim of the present study was to correlate clinical and pathologic parameters with survival in patients submitted to pancreatic resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Methods. Surgical resection with curative intent (R0 and R1 resections) was performed in 65 pancreatic cancer patients between 1990 and 2006. The overall results of surgical treatment were retrospectively analyzed and compared with the clinicopathologic features of these patients. Results. Pylorus-preserving pancreatoduodenectomy was performed in 37 patients (56.9%), classic resection in 35.4%, distal pancreatectomy in 4.6% and total pancreatectomy in 3.6%. The inhospital mortality was 5% (three patients). Postoperative complications occurred in 28 patients (43%). Mean survival and five-year survival rate after curative resection were 27 months and 9.0%, respectively. Sex, TNM stage, tumor differentiation, neural invasion, tumor size and involvement of resection margin were significant prognostic factors on univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed tumor differentiation and neural invasion as prognostic factors. Conclusion. Patients with pancreatic cancer, even those with poor prognostic factors should be given the opportunity of surgical resection with curative intent.

Effect of remifentanil hydrochloride administered via constant rate infusion on the minimum alveolar concentration of isoflurane in cats

Objective-To evaluate the effects of increasing doses of remifentanil hydrochloride administered via constant rate infusion (CRI) on the minimum alveolar concentration (MAC) of isoflurane in cats. Animals-6 healthy adult cats. Procedures-For each cat, 2 experiments were performed (2-week interval). On each study day, anesthesia was induced and maintained with isoflurane; a catheter was placed in a cephalic vein for the administration of lactated Ringer`s solution or remifentanil CRIs, and a catheter was placed in the jugular vein for collection of blood samples for blood gas analyses. On the first study day, individual basal MAC (MAC(Basal)) was determined for each cat. On the second study day, 3 remifentanil CRIs (0.25, 0.5, and 1.0 mu g/kg/min) were administered (in ascending order); for each infusion, at least 30 minutes elapsed before determination of MAC (designated as MAC(R0.25`) MAC(R0.5`) and MACR(R1.0`) respectively). A 15-minute washout period was allowed between CRIs. A control MAC (MAC Control) was determined after the last remifentanil infusion. Results-Mean +/- SD MAC(Basal) and MAC(Control) values at sea level did not differ significantly (1.66 +/- 0.08% and 1.52 +/- 0.21%, respectively). The MAC values determined for each remifentanil CRI did not differ significantly. However, MACR(0.25`) MAC(R0.5`) and MAC(R1.0) were significantly decreased, compared with MAC(Basal`) by 23.4 +/- 79%, 29.8 +/- 8.3%, and 26.0 +/- 9.4%, respectively. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-The 3 doses of remifentanil administered via CRI resulted in a similar degree of isoflurane MAC reduction in adult cats, indicating that a ceiling effect was achieved following administration of the lowest dose. (Am J Vet Res 2009;70:581-588)

Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

Aplicación del teorema del umbral estocástico de Whittle a un brote de varicela

OBJETIVO: Estimar el ritmo reproductivo básico en un brote de varicela, aplicar el teorema umbral estocástico para estimar la probabilidad de la ocurrencia del brote e identificar medidas preventivas. MÉTODOS: El estudio fue realizado en una guardería de 16 niños, con 13 susceptibles, un infectado inicial y dos niños inmunes por antecedente de enfermedad. Se partió de un modelo estocástico: susceptible - infectado - removido. Se estimó el ritmo de reproducción básico de la enfermedad R0, usando un método de máxima verosimilitud basado en el conocimiento de la distribución de probabilidades para el tamaño total de la epidemia y haciendo una aproximación de epidemia casi-completa. Con el R0 obtenido se aplicó el teorema de umbral estocástico para obtener algunas medidas preventivas que podrían impedir la irrupción del brote de varicela. RESULTADOS: Cada infectado inicial produjo tres casos nuevos de infección, requiriendo para impedir el brote, una cobertura mínima de vacunación del 62%, o disminuir en 62% el contacto entre miembros del grupo o aumentar en 170% la remoción de infectados. CONCLUSIONES: El teorema del umbral estocástico permite identificar medidas que se podrían implementar para prevenir y controlar brotes de varicela. Aunque la distribución del tamaño de la epidemia en forma bimodal con similar probabilidad de ocurrencia de brotes grandes y pequeños, señala la incertidumbre del proceso epidémico en grupos pequeños, requiriéndose un estrecho seguimiento de los brotes en tales grupos.

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.

Mathematical model for HIV dynamics in HIV-specific helper cells

In this paper we study a delay mathematical model for the dynamics of HIV in HIV-specific CD4 + T helper cells. We modify the model presented by Roy and Wodarz in 2012, where the HIV dynamics is studied, considering a single CD4 + T cell population. Non-specific helper cells are included as alternative target cell population, to account for macrophages and dendritic cells. In this paper, we include two types of delay: (1) a latent period between the time target cells are contacted by the virus particles and the time the virions enter the cells and; (2) virus production period for new virions to be produced within and released from the infected cells. We compute the reproduction number of the model, R0, and the local stability of the disease free equilibrium and of the endemic equilibrium. We find that for values of R0<1, the model approaches asymptotically the disease free equilibrium. For values of R0>1, the model approximates asymptotically the endemic equilibrium. We observe numerically the phenomenon of backward bifurcation for values of R0⪅1. This statement will be proved in future work. We also vary the values of the latent period and the production period of infected cells and free virus. We conclude that increasing these values translates in a decrease of the reproduction number. Thus, a good strategy to control the HIV virus should focus on drugs to prolong the latent period and/or slow down the virus production. These results suggest that the model is mathematically and epidemiologically well-posed.

Sobrevivência e reprodução de Synthesiomyia nudiseta (Diptera, Muscidae)

A reprodução e a sobrevivência de Synthesiomyia nudiseta (Wulp, 1883) foram estudadas entre 22 e 28ºC, UR de 70% e fotoperíodo de 12h. Os dados foram analisados através de classes de idade, tabelas de vida de fecundidade, análise de sobrevivência pela distribuição de Weibull e análise das curvas de sobrevivência através do conceito de entropia (H). A taxa intrínseca de aumento natural (r m), taxa finita de aumento (lambda), taxa de reprodução líquida (R0) e tempo médio de uma geração (T) foram 0,534; 1,7; 59,439 e 7,65 respectivamente, sugerindo rápido crescimento populacional nestas condições. Isso foi causado pela alta fecundidade, confirmando o que ocorre para esta espécie, com média de 266 ovos/fêmea e período de pré-oviposição de 10,25 dias. O modelo de Weibull demonstrou que a sobrevivência não foi constante ao longo da vida de adultos, com mortalidade pronunciada depois da quarta e quinta semanas e valores de H intermediários aos valores teóricos esperados (0,0-0,5) para os ambos sexos, demonstrando que a curva de sobrevivência é retangular (com maior impacto da mortalidade na quarta e quinta semanas após a emergência). Os resultados apresentados podem ser considerados como base para estudos pormenorizados da dinâmica e do crescimento populacional desta espécie em hábitats naturais.

A territorial approach to firm entry: The effect of city size

This paper concerns the effects of territorial factors on the processes involved in the creation of manufacturing firms in Spanish cities. Most contributions have focused on regional factors rather than urban ones. Here we assume that it is possible to identify certain urban factors that attract new firms. We use data for the entry of firms in Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2002. This paper contributes to the existing literature on market entry. Key words: cities, regions, firm entry and Spanish economy. JEL: R0, R12, L60

Primary localized rectal/pararectal gastrointestinal stromal tumors: results of surgical and multimodal therapy from the French Sarcoma group.

BACKGROUND: Rectal and pararectal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are rare. The optimal management strategy for primary localized GISTs remains poorly defined. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 41 patients with localized rectal or pararectal GISTs treated between 1991 and 2011 in 13 French Sarcoma Group centers. RESULTS: Of 12 patients who received preoperative imatinib therapy for a median duration of 7 (2-12) months, 8 experienced a partial response, 3 had stable disease, and 1 had a complete response. Thirty and 11 patients underwent function-sparing conservative surgery and abdominoperineal resection, respectively. Tumor resections were mostly R0 and R1 in 35 patients. Tumor rupture occurred in 12 patients. Eleven patients received postoperative imatinib with a median follow-up of 59 (2.4-186) months. The median time to disease relapse was 36 (9.8-62) months. The 5-year overall survival rate was 86.5%. Twenty patients developed local recurrence after surgery alone, two developed recurrence after resection combined with preoperative and/or postoperative imatinib, and eight developed metastases. In univariate analysis, the mitotic index (≤5) and tumor size (≤5 cm) were associated with a significantly decreased risk of local relapse. Perioperative imatinib was associated with a significantly reduced risk of overall relapse and local relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Perioperative imatinib therapy was associated with improved disease-free survival. Preoperative imatinib was effective. Tumor shrinkage has a clear benefit for local excision in terms of feasibility and function preservation. Given the complexity of rectal GISTs, referral of patients with this rare disease to expert centers to undergo a multidisciplinary approach is recommended.

Neo/adjuvant chemotherapy does not improve outcome in resected primary synovial sarcoma: a study of the French Sarcoma Group.

BACKGROUND: There are only scarce data about the benefit of adjunctive chemotherapy in patients with localized synovial sarcoma (SS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 237 SS patients recorded in the database of the French Sarcoma Group were retrospectively analyzed. The respective impact of radiotherapy, neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant chemotherapy on overall survival (OS), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) were assessed after adjustment to prognostic factors. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 58 months (range 1-321). Adjuvant, neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and postoperative radiotherapy were administered in 112, 45 and 181 cases, respectively. In all, 59% of patients treated with chemotherapy received an ifosfamide-containing regimen. The 5-year OS, LRFS and DRFS rates were 64.0%, 70% and 57%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, age >35 years old, grade 3 and not-R0 margins were highly significant independent predictors of worse OS. After adjustment to prognostic factors, radiotherapy significantly improved LRFS but not DRFS or OS. Neither neo-adjuvant nor adjuvant chemotherapy had significant impact on OS, LRFS or DRFS. CONCLUSION: As for other high-grade soft-tissue sarcomas, well-planned wide surgical excision with adjuvant radiotherapy remains the cornerstone of treatment for SS. Neo-adjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy should not be delivered outside a clinical trial setting.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci in Intensive Care Hospital Settings

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) have recently emerged as a nosocomial pathogen and present an increasing threat to the treatment of severely ill patients in intensive-care hospital settings. We outline results of a study of the epidemiology of VRE transmission in ICUs and define a reproductive number R0; the number of secondary colonization cases induced by a single VRE-colonized patient in a VRE-free ICU, for VRE transmission. For VRE to become endemic requires R0 >1. We estimate that in the absence of infection control measures R0 lies in the range 3-4 in defined ICU settings. Once infection control measures are included R0=0.6, suggesting that admission of VRE-colonized patients can stabilize endemic VRE.

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Simultaneous biliary drainage and portal vein embolization before extended hepatectomy for hilar cholangiocarcinoma: preliminary experience.

BACKGROUND: Patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma often present obstructive jaundice and a small future remnant liver (FRL) ratio. A sequential approach comprising preoperative biliary drainage followed by portal vein embolization (PVE) is usually performed but leads to long preoperative management (6-12 weeks) before patients can undergo resection. To simplify and shorten this phase of liver preparation, we developed a new preoperative approach that involves percutaneous biliary drainage and PVE during the same procedure. We report the outcomes of this combined procedure. METHODS: During 1 year, four patients underwent simultaneous biliary drainage and PVE followed 1 month later by surgical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Liver volumes were assessed by CT before, and 1, and 3 months after the combined procedure. Serum liver enzymes were assessed before and 1 month after the combined procedure. RESULTS: The combined procedure was feasible in all cases, with no related complications. After the combined procedure, transaminases remained stable or decreased, whereas gamma-glutamyl-transpeptidase, alkaline phosphatase, and bilirubin decreased. During the first month, the left lobe volume increased by +27.9 % (range 19-40.9 %). The FRL ratio increased from 24.9 to 33.2 %. All patients underwent R0 liver resection with a favorable postoperative outcome. The remnant liver volume increased by +132 % (range 78-245 %) between 1 and 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Simultaneous percutaneous biliary drainage and PVE is feasible. This all-in-one preoperative approach greatly decreases waiting time until surgical resection. These encouraging results warrant further investigation to confirm the safety and to evaluate the reduction in the dropout rate for liver resection in this tumor with poor prognosis.

Prognostic Factors Influencing Progression-Free Survival Determined From a Series of Sporadic Desmoid Tumors: A Wait-and-See Policy According to Tumor Presentation.

PURPOSE Desmoid tumors are mesenchymal fibroblastic/myofibroblastic proliferations with locoregional aggressiveness and high ability to recur after initial treatment. We present the results of the largest series of sporadic desmoid tumors ever published to determine the prognostic factors of these rare tumors. PATIENTS AND METHODS Four hundred twenty-six patients with a desmoid tumor at diagnosis were included, and the following parameters were studied: age, sex, delay between first symptoms and diagnosis, tumor size, tumor site, previous history of surgery or trauma in the area of the primary tumor, surgical margins, and context of abdominal wall desmoids in women of child-bearing age during or shortly after pregnancy. We performed univariate and multivariate analysis for progression-free survival (PFS). Results In univariate analysis, age, tumor size, tumor site, and surgical margins (R2 v R0/R1) had a significant impact on PFS. PFS curves were not significantly different for microscopic assessment of surgical resection quality (R0 v R1). In multivariate analysis, age, tumor size, and tumor site had independent values. Three prognostic groups for PFS were defined on the basis of the number of independent unfavorable prognostic factors (0 or 1, 2, and 3). CONCLUSION This study clearly demonstrates that there are different prognostic subgroups of desmoid tumors that could benefit from different therapeutic strategies, including a wait-and-see policy.