Quantification of uncertainties associated with space-time estimates of short-term soil CO2 emissions in a sugar cane area

The characterization of soil CO2 emissions (FCO2) is important for the study of the global carbon cycle. This phenomenon presents great variability in space and time, a characteristic that makes attempts at modeling and forecasting FCO2 challenging. Although spatial estimates have been performed in several studies, the association of these estimates with the uncertainties inherent in the estimation procedures is not considered. This study aimed to evaluate the local, spatial, local-temporal and spatial-temporal uncertainties of short-term FCO2 after harvest period in a sugar cane area. The FCO2 was featured in a sampling grid of 60m×60m containing 127 points with minimum separation distances from 0.5 to 10m between points. The FCO2 was evaluated 7 times within a total period of 10 days. The variability of FCO2 was described by descriptive statistics and variogram modeling. To calculate the uncertainties, 300 realizations made by sequential Gaussian simulation were considered. Local uncertainties were evaluated using the probability values exceeding certain critical thresholds, while the spatial uncertainties considering the probability of regions with high probability values together exceed the adopted limits. Using the daily uncertainties, the local-spatial and spatial-temporal uncertainty (Ftemp) was obtained. The daily and mean emissions showed a variability structure that was described by spherical and Gaussian models. The differences between the daily maps were related to variations in the magnitude of FCO2, covering mean values ranging from 1.28±0.11μmolm-2s-1 (F197) to 1.82±0.07μmolm-2s-1 (F195). The Ftemp showed low spatial uncertainty coupled with high local uncertainty estimates. The average emission showed great spatial uncertainty of the simulated values. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the knowledge of temporal and spatial variability is an important tool for understanding many phenomena over time, such as the quantification of greenhouse gases or the identification of areas with high crop productivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Modal analysis of buildings : quantification of uncertainties and model updating

Una estructura vibra con la suma de sus infinitos modos de vibración, definidos por sus parámetros modales (frecuencias naturales, formas modales y coeficientes de amortiguamiento). Estos parámetros se pueden identificar a través del Análisis Modal Operacional (OMA). Así, un equipo de investigación de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ha identificado las propiedades modales de un edificio de hormigón armado en Madrid con el método Identificación de los sub-espacios estocásticos (SSI). Para completar el estudio dinámico de este edificio, se ha desarrollado un modelo de elementos finitos (FE) de este edificio de 19 plantas. Este modelo se ha calibrado a partir de su comportamiento dinámico obtenido experimentalmente a través del OMA. Los objetivos de esta tesis son; (i) identificar la estructura con varios métodos de SSI y el uso de diferentes ventanas de tiempo de tal manera que se cuantifican incertidumbres de los parámetros modales debidos al proceso de estimación, (ii) desarrollar FEM de este edificio y calibrar este modelo a partir de su comportamiento dinámico, y (iii) valorar la bondad del modelo. Los parámetros modales utilizados en esta calibración han sido; espesor de las losas, densidades de los materiales, módulos de elasticidad, dimensiones de las columnas y las condiciones de contorno de la cimentación. Se ha visto que el modelo actualizado representa el comportamiento dinámico de la estructura con una buena precisión. Por lo tanto, este modelo puede utilizarse dentro de un sistema de monitorización estructural (SHM) y para la detección de daños. En el futuro, podrá estudiar la influencia de los agentes medioambientales, tales como la temperatura o el viento, en los parámetros modales. A structure vibrates according to the sum of its vibration modes, defined by their modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes). These parameters can be identified through Operational Modal Analysis (OMA). Thus, a research team of the Technical University of Madrid has identified the modal properties of a reinforced-concrete-frame building in Madrid using the Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) method and a time domain technique for the OMA. To complete the dynamic study of this building, a finite element model (FE) of this 19-floor building has been developed throughout this thesis. This model has been updated from its dynamic behavior identified by the OMA. The objectives of this thesis are to; (i) identify the structure with several SSI methods and using different time blocks in such a way that uncertainties due to the modal parameter estimation are quantified, (ii) develop a FEM of this building and tune this model from its dynamic behavior, and (iii) Assess the quality of the model, the modal parameters used in this updating process have been; thickness of slabs, material densities, modulus of elasticity, column dimensions and foundation boundary conditions. It has been shown that the final updated model represents the structure with a very good accuracy. Thus, this model might be used within a structural health monitoring framework (SHM). The study of the influence of changing environmental factors (such as temperature or wind) on the model parameters might be considered as a future work.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

The influence of sampling design on tree-ring-based quantification of forest growth

Tree-rings offer one of the few possibilities to empirically quantify and reconstruct forest growth dynamics over years to millennia. Contemporaneously with the growing scientific community employing tree-ring parameters, recent research has suggested that commonly applied sampling designs (i.e. how and which trees are selected for dendrochronological sampling) may introduce considerable biases in quantifications of forest responses to environmental change. To date, a systematic assessment of the consequences of sampling design on dendroecological and-climatological conclusions has not yet been performed. Here, we investigate potential biases by sampling a large population of trees and replicating diverse sampling designs. This is achieved by retroactively subsetting the population and specifically testing for biases emerging for climate reconstruction, growth response to climate variability, long-term growth trends, and quantification of forest productivity. We find that commonly applied sampling designs can impart systematic biases of varying magnitude to any type of tree-ring-based investigations, independent of the total number of samples considered. Quantifications of forest growth and productivity are particularly susceptible to biases, whereas growth responses to short-term climate variability are less affected by the choice of sampling design. The world's most frequently applied sampling design, focusing on dominant trees only, can bias absolute growth rates by up to 459% and trends in excess of 200%. Our findings challenge paradigms, where a subset of samples is typically considered to be representative for the entire population. The only two sampling strategies meeting the requirements for all types of investigations are the (i) sampling of all individuals within a fixed area; and (ii) fully randomized selection of trees. This result advertises the consistent implementation of a widely applicable sampling design to simultaneously reduce uncertainties in tree-ring-based quantifications of forest growth and increase the comparability of datasets beyond individual studies, investigators, laboratories, and geographical boundaries.

Quantification of water content across a cement-clay interface using high resolution neutron radiography

In many designs for radioactive waste repositories, cement and clay will come into direct contact. The geochemical contrast between cement and clay will lead to mass fluxes across the interface, which consequently results in alteration of structural and transport properties of both materials that may affect the performance of the multi-barrier system. We present an experimental approach to study cement-clay interactions with a cell to accommodate small samples of cement and clay. The cell design allows both in situ measurement of water content across the sample using neutron radiography and measurement of transport parameters using through-diffusion tracer experiments. The aim of the high- resolution neutron radiography experiments was to monitor changes in water content (porosity) and their spatial extent. Neutron radiographs of several evolving cement-clay interfaces delivered quantitative data which allow resolving local water contents within the sample domain. In the present work we explored the uncertainties of the derived water contents with regard to various input parameters and with regard to the applied image correction procedures. Temporal variation of measurement conditions created absolute uncertainty of the water content in the order of ±0.1 (m3/m3), which could not be fully accounted for by correction procedures. Smaller relative changes in water content between two images can be derived by specific calibrations to two sample regions with different, invariant water contents.

Chemical characterization and quantification of the brown algal storage compound laminarin

In search of a meaningful stress indicator for Fucus vesiculosus we found that the often used quantitative determination procedures for the polysaccharide laminarin (beta-1,3-glucan) result in different kind of problems, uncertainties and limitations. This chemical long-term storage form of carbon enables perennial brown algae in seasonally fluctuating ecosystems to uncouple growth from photosynthesis. Because of this high ecological relevance a reliable and precise method for determination and quantification of laminarin is needed. Therefore, a simple, cold water extraction method coupled to a new quantitative liquid chromatography-mass spectrometrical method (LC-MS) was developed. Laminarin was determined in nine out of twelve brown algal species, and its expected typical molar mass distribution of 2000-7000 Da was confirmed. Furthermore, laminarin consisted of a complex mixture of different chemical forms, since fifteen chemical laminarin species with distinct molecular weights were measured in nine species of brown algae. Laminarin concentrations in the algal tissues ranged from 0.03 to 0.86% dry weight (DW). The direct chemical characterization and quantification of laminarin by LC-MS represents a powerful method to verify the biochemical and ecological importance of laminarin for brown algae. Single individuals of Laminaria hyperborea, L. digitata, Saccharina latissima, F. serratus, F. vesiculosus, F. spiralis, Himanthalia elongata, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, Pelvetia canaliculata, Ascophyllum nodosum, Halidrys siliquosa and Dictyota dichotoma were collected in fall (18.11.2013) during spring low tide from the shore of Finavarra, Co. Clare, west coast of Ireland (53° 09' 25'' N, 09° 06' 58'' W). After sampling, the different algae were immediately transported to the lab, lyophilized and sent to the University of Rostock. Laminarin was extracted with cold ultrapure water from the algal samples. Before extraction they were ground to < 1 mm grain size with an analytical mill (Ika MF 10 Basic). The algal material (approx. 1.5 g DW) was extracted in ultrapure water (8 mL) on a shaker (250 rpm) for 5 h. After the addition of surplus ultrapure water (4 mL) and shaking manually, 1 mL of the sample was filter centrifuged (45 µm) at 14,000 rpm (Hettich Mikro 22 R). The slightly viscous supernatant was free of suspended material and converted into a microvial (300 µL) for further analysis. The extracts were analyzed using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) analysis (LTQ Velos Pro ion trap spectrometer with Accela HPLC, Thermo Scientific). Laminarin species were separated on a KinetexTM column (2.6 µm C18, 150 x 3 mm). The mobile phase was 90 % ultrapure water and 10 % acetonitrile, run isocratically at a flow rate of 0.2 mL min-1. MS was working in ESI negative ion mode in a mass range of 100 - 4000 amu. Glucose contents were determined after extraction using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Extracted samples were analyzed in an HPLC (SmartLine, Knauer GmbH) equipped with a SUPELCOGELTM Ca column (30 x 7,8 mm without preColumn) and RI-detector (S2300 PDA S2800). Water was used as eluent at a flow rate of 0.8 mL min-1 at 75 °C. Glucose was quantified by comparison of the retention time and peak area with standard solutions using ChromGate software. Mannitol was extracted from three subsamples of 10-20 mg powdered alga material (L. hyperborea, L. digitata, S. latissima, F. serratus, F. vesiculosus, F. spiralis, H. elongata, P. canaliculata, A. nodosum, H. siliquosa) and quantified, following the HPLC method described by Karsten et al. (1991). For analyzing carbon and nitrogen contents, dried algal material was ground to powder and three subsamples of 2 mg from each alga thalli were loaded and packed into tin cartridges (6×6×12 mm). The packages were combusted at 950 °C and the absolute contents of C and N were automatically quantified in an elemental analyzer (Elementar Vario EL III, Germany) using acetanilide as standard according to Verardo et al. (1990).

Mineral quantification of a Jordan Cretaceous outcrop (Section GM3, Ghawr Al Mazar, Ghor al Mazrar)

Cyclic fluctuations in global sea level during epochs of warm greenhouse climate have remained enigmatic, because absence or subordinate presence of polar ice during these periods precludes an explanation by glacio-eustatic forcing. An alternative concept suggests that the water-bearing potential of groundwater aquifers is equal to that of ice caps and that changes in the dynamic balance of aquifer charge versus discharge, as a function of the temperature-related intensity of the hydrological cycle, may have driven eustasy during warm climates. However, this idea has long been neglected for two reasons: 1) the large storage potential of subsurface aquifers was confused with the much smaller capacity of rivers and lakes and 2) empirical data were missing that document past variations in the hydrological cycle in relation to eustasy. In the present study we present the first empirical evidence for changes in precipitation, continental weathering intensity and evaporation that correlate with astronomically (long obliquity) forced sea-level cycles during the warmest period of the Cretaceous (Cenomanian-Turonian). We compare sequence-stratigraphic data with changes in the terrigenous mineral assemblage in a low-latitude marine sedimentary sequence from the equatorial humid belt at the South-Tethyan margin (Levant carbonate platform, Jordan), thereby avoiding uncertainties from land-ocean correlations. Our data indicate covariance between cycles in weathering and sea level: predominantly chemical weathering under wet climate conditions is reflected by dominance of weathering products (clays) in deposits that represent sea-level fall (aquifer charge > discharge). Conversely, preservation of weathering-sensitive minerals (feldspars, epidote and pyroxenes) in transgressive sediments reflects decreased continental weathering due to dryer climate (aquifer discharge > charge). Based on our results we suggest that aquifer-eustasy represents a viable alternative to glacio-eustasy as a driver of cyclic 3rd-order sea-level fluctuations during the middle Cretaceous greenhouse climate, and it may have been a pervasive process throughout Earth history.

Development of a Multicommutated Flow System with Chemiluminometric Detection for Quantification of Gentamicin in Pharmaceuticals

A new flow procedure based on multicommutation with chemiluminometric detection was developed to quantify gentamicin sulphate in pharmaceutical formulations. This approach is based on gentamicin's ability to inhibit the chemiluminometric reaction between luminol and hypochlorite in alkaline medium, causing a decrease in the analytical signal. The inhibition of the analytical signal is proportional to the concentration of gentamicin sulphate, within a linear range of 1 to 4 mu g mL(-1) with a coefficient variation <3%. A sample throughput of 55 samples h(-1) was obtained. The developed method is sensitive, simple, with low reagent consumption, reproducible, and inexpensive, and when applied to the analysis of pharmaceutical formulations (eye drops and injections) it gave results with RSD between 1.10 and 4.40%.

Method for early quantification of quiescent infections of Colletotrichum musae on bananas

Introduction. This protocol aims at detecting and quantifying quiescent infections of Colletotrichum musae on bananas. The principle, key advantages, starting plant material, time required and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. The materials required and details of the three steps of the protocol (fruit sampling, fruit ripening and anthracnose lesion quantification) are described. Possible troubleshooting is discussed. Results. The protocol results in the quantification of anthracnose lesions on the fruits, which makes it possible to predict postharvest losses due to anthracnose (peel rot), and also to propose a better management of postharvest fungicide applications.

Ferromagnetic resonance for the quantification of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles in biological materials

The aim of the present work is the presentation of a quantification methodology for the control of the amount of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) administered in biological materials by means of the ferromagnetic resonance technique (FMR) applied to studies both in vivo and in vitro. The in vivo study consisted in the analysis of the elimination and biodistribution kinetics of SPIONs after intravenous administration in Wistar rats. The results were corroborated by X-ray fluorescence. For the in vitro study, a quantitative analysis of the concentration of SPIONs bound to the specific AC133 monoclonal antibodies was carried out in order to detect the expression of the antigenic epitopes (CD133) in stem cells from human umbilical cord blood. In both studies FMR has proven to be an efficient technique for the SPIONs quantification per volume unit (in vivo) or per labeled cell (in vitro).

Quantification of some nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs as reducing agents of Cu(II)/4,4 '-dicarboxy-2,2 '-biquinoline complexes in cationic micellar medium

A simple method was developed for spectrophotometric determination of some nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (meloxicam, piroxicam and tenoxicam) based on the reduction of copper(II) in buffered solution (pH 7.0) and micellar medium containing 4,4'-dicarboxy-2,2'-buffered solution (pH 7.0) and micellar medium containing 4,4'-dicarboxy-2,2'-biquinoline acid. The-biquinoline acid. The absorbance values at 558 nm, characteristic of the formed Cu(I)/4,4'-dicarboxy-2,2'-biquinoline complexes, are linear with the concentrations (5.7-40 mmol L(-1), n = 5) of these oxicams (meloxicam r = 0.998; piroxicam and tenoxicam r = 0.999). The limit of detection values, in mmol L(-1), calculated for meloxicam (2.7), piroxicam (1.2) and tenoxicam (1.3) was obtained with 99% confidence level and the relative standard deviations for meloxicam (3.1%), piroxicam (5.1%) and tenoxicam (1.2%) were calculated using a 25 mmol L(-1) solution (n = 7). Mean recovery values for meloxicam, piroxicam and tenoxicam forms were 100 +/- 6.9, 98.6 +/- 3.6 and 99.4 +/- 2.5%, respectively. The conditional potential of Cu(II)/Cu(I) in complex medium of 7.5 mmol L(-1) BCA was determined to be 629 +/- 11 mV vs. NHE.

Methods of quantification of training load in exercise performed at maximal lactate steady state

The aim of the present study was to compare and correlate training impulse (TRIMP) estimates proposed by Banister (TRIMP(Banister)), Stagno (TRIMP(Stagno)) and Manzi (TRIMP(Manzi)). The subjects were submitted to an incremental test on cycle ergometer with heart rate and blood lactate concentration measurements. In the second occasion, they performed 30 min. of exercise at the intensity corresponding to maximal lactate steady state, and TRIMP(Banister), TRIMP(Stagno) and TRIMP(Manzi) were calculated. The mean values of TRIMP(Banister) (56.5 +/- 8.2 u.a.) and TRIMP(Stagno) (51.2 +/- 12.4 u.a.) were not different (P > 0.05) and were highly correlated (r = 0.90). Besides this, they presented a good agreement level, which means low bias and relatively narrow limits of agreement. On the other hand, despite highly correlated (r = 0.93), TRIMP(Stagno) and TRIMP(Manzi) (73.4 +/- 17.6 u.a.) were different (P < 0.05), with low agreement level. The TRIMP(Banister) e TRIMP(Manzi) estimates were not different (P = 0.06) and were highly correlated (r = 0.82), but showed low agreement level. Thus, we concluded that the investigated TRIMP methods are not equivalent. In practical terms, it seems prudent monitor the training process assuming only one of the estimates.

Quantification of MgO surface excess on the SnO(2) nanoparticles and relationship with nanostability and growth

In this work, we experimentally showed that the spontaneous segregation of MgO as surface excess in MgO doped SnO(2) nanoparticles plays an important role in the system`s energetics and stability. Using Xray fluorescence in specially treated samples, we quantitatively determined the fraction of MgO forming surface excess when doping SnO(2) with several different concentrations and established a relationship between this amount and the surface energy of the nanoparticles using the Gibbs approach. We concluded that the amount of Mg ions on the surface was directly related to the nanoparticles total free energy, in a sense that the dopant will always spontaneously distribute itself to minimize it if enough diffusion is provided. Because we were dealing with nanosized particles, the effect of MgO on the surface was particularly important and has a direct effect on the equilibrium particle size (nanoparticle stability), such that the lower the surface energy is, the smaller the particle sizes are, evidencing and quantifying the thermodynamic basis of using additives to control SnO(2) nanoparticles stability. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantification of Clay Dispersion in Nanocomposites of Styrenic Polymers

Polymer-clay nanocomposites are materials with many interesting structures, properties, and potential applications. Microstructural evaluation of a nanocomposite is not an easy task, as clay may form hierarchical structures which may look different when observed at various magnifications under a microscope, and also as the concepts of ""intercalation"" and ""exfoliation"" are not self-sufficient to describe its morphology. In this work polymer-clay nanocomposites of polystyrene and two styrene-containing block copolymers (styrene-butadiene-styrene and styrene-ethylene/butylene-styrene) were prepared using three different techniques. Clay dispersion was evaluated by a recently developed microscopy image analysis procedure, combining the analysis of optical and transmission electron micrographs, and the characterization was complemented by X-ray diffraction and rheological measurements. The results showed better clay dispersion for both block copolymers nanocomposites, mainly due to their molecular architectures. Moreover, the techniques which showed the best results involved mixing the materials in a solvent medium. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 50:257-267, 2010. (C) 2009 Society of Plastics Engineers

Quantification of the environmental impacts of road conditions in Brazil

This study evaluates the impacts of Brazilian highway conditions on fuel consumption and, consequently, on carbon dioxide (COO emissions. For the purpose of this study, highway conditions refer to the level of highway maintenance: the incidence of large potholes, large surface cracks, uneven sections, and debris. Primary computer collected data related to the fuel consumption of three types of trucks were analyzed. The data were derived from 88 trips taken over six routes, each route representative of one of two highway conditions: better or worse. Study results are initially presented for each type of truck being monitored. The results are then aggregated to approximate the entire Brazilian highway network. In all cases, results confirmed environmental benefits resulting from travel over the better routes. There was found to be an increase in energy efficiency from traveling better roads, which resulted in lower fuel consumption and lower CO(2) emissions. Statistical analysis of the results suggests that, in general, fuel consumption data were significant at *P < 0.05, rejecting the null hypothesis that average fuel consumption from traveling the better routes is statistically equal to average fuel consumption from traveling the worse routes. Improved Brazilian road conditions would generate economic benefits, reduce dependency on and consumption of fossil fuels (due to the increase in energy efficiency), and reduce CO(2) emissions. These findings may have additional relevancy if Brazil needs to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to reach future Kyoto Protocol`s emissions targets, which should take effect in January 2013. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.