Should fiscal authorities cooperate in a monetary union with public deficit targets?

In this paper we analyse the setting of optimal policies in a monetary union with one monetary authority and various fiscal authorities that have a public deficit target. We will show that fiscal cooperation among the fiscal authorities, in the presence of positive supply shocks, ends up producing higher public deficits than in a non-cooperative regime. JEL No. E61, E63, F33, H0. Keywords: monetary union, fiscal policy coordination.

Public debt sustainability and endogenous seignorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-92

Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditure GDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we examine two central issues in public finance. First, was the path of public debt sustainable during this period? Second, if debt is sustainable, how has the government historically balanced the budget after hocks to either revenues or expenditures? The results show that (i) public deficit is stationary (bounded asymptotic variance), with the budget in Brazil being balanced almost entirely through changes in taxes, regardless of the cause of the initial imbalance. Expenditures are weakly exogenous, but tax revenues are not;(ii) a rational Brazilian consumer can have a behavior consistent with Ricardian Equivalence (iii) seignorage revenues are critical to restore intertemporal budget equilibrium, since, when we exclude them from total revenues, debt is not sustainable in econometric tests.

Public debt sustainability and endogenous seigniorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-92: revised version

Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditureGDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we examine three central issues in public finance. First, was the path of public debt sustainable during this period? Second, if debt is sustainable, how has the government historically balanced the budget after shocks to either revenues or expenditures? Third, are expenditures exogenous? The results show that (i) public deficit is stationary (bounded asymptotic variance), with the budget in Brazil being balanced almost entirely through changes in taxes, regardless of the cause of the initial imbalance. Expenditures are weakly exogenous, but tax revenues are not; (ii) the behavior of a rational Brazilian consumer may be consistent with Ricardian Equivalence; (iii) seigniorage revenues are critical to restore intertemporal budget equilibrium, since, when we exclude them from total revenues, debt is not sustainable in econometric tests.

The determinants of default risk in Brazil

We formulated a general unrestricted model of the Brazilian Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) spreads, a proxy for the country`s default risk. Employing algorithms that perform automated model selection, we found that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as current account deficit ratio to gross domestic product, public deficit ratio to gross domestic product and imports over foreign exchange reserves, can explain a great part of the variation in EMBI+ spreads. There is also robust evidence of systematic contagion from Argentina and Mexico and that the variance of the spread also affects its mean.

Fiscal multipliers in Portugal using a threshold approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Is there a connection between the tax administration and the political power?

This paper offers empirical evidence from Spain of a connection between the tax administration and the political power. Firstly, the regional tax administration is not immune to the budgetary situation of regional government, and tends to exert a greater (or lesser) effort in tax collection the greater (or lower) the (expected) public deficit. At the same time, the system of unconditional grants from the central layer of government provokes an ¿income effect¿ which disincentivises the efforts of the tax administration. Secondly, these efforts also decrease when the margin to lose a parliamentary seat in an electoral district is cut, although the importance of this disincentive decreases according to the parliamentary strength of the incumbent

Is there a connection between the tax administration and the political power?

This paper offers empirical evidence from Spain of a connection between the tax administration and the political power. Firstly, the regional tax administration is not immune to the budgetary situation of regional government, and tends to exert a greater (or lesser) effort in tax collection the greater (or lower) the (expected) public deficit. At the same time, the system of unconditional grants from the central layer of government provokes an ¿income effect¿ which disincentivises the efforts of the tax administration. Secondly, these efforts also decrease when the margin to lose a parliamentary seat in an electoral district is cut, although the importance of this disincentive decreases according to the parliamentary strength of the incumbent

Matemática agradável

This paper suggests a reconsideration of the principle that public deficits should be financed by public debt. Two main reasons are offered. First, it is admitted that public debt is an economic variable whose time behaviour is better described by a first difference equation instead of an accounting identity. The convergence condition thus obtained requires either a nominal negative interest rate or that government bonds are used to raise tax income, hypotheses not theoretically granted. As a consequence, if primary surplus is not sufficient to match interests' payment, it will be observed an explosive trend in the public debt, the due interests and the money issuing. Therefore, it lacks support to the idea that public debt prevents inflation. Second, it is shown that financing public deficit through money issuing leads to a stable equilibrium money stock. The general conclusion is that, in order to simultaneously promote economic growth and inflation control, money issuing is preferable to public debt.

Globalization, nation-state and catching up

Globalization and nation-states are not in contradiction, since globalization is the present stage of capitalist development, and the nation-state is the territorial political unit that organizes the space and population in the capitalist system. Since the 1980s, Global Capitalism constitutes the economic system characterized by the opening of all national markets and a fierce competition between nation-states. Developing countries tend to catch up, while rich countries try to neutralize such competitive effort, using globalism as an ideology, and conventional orthodoxy as a strategy. Middle-income countries that are catching up in the realm of globalization are the ones that count with a national development strategy. This is broadly the case of the dynamic Asian countries. In contrast, Latin American countries have no longer their own strategy, and grow less. To add data to the argument, the author conducts an econometric test comparing these two groups of countries, and three variables: the rate of investment, the current account deficit or surplus that would indicate or not a competitive exchange rate, and public deficit.

Endividamento público, crescimento, moeda e inflação: comentário a "matemática agradável", de Gerson Lima - a réplica

This paper aims at replying critical commentaries made by Leite, F. P., Aggio, G. O. e Angeli, E. (this Review, 2009) on two Author's theses. The first one states that, if public deficit is to be financed, then either interest rate applied is negative or government invests as if it where a profit-making business enterprise. Otherwise, public debt will mathematically follow an explosive trend. The second one says that if there is no debt and public deficit is paid with money issuing, then the monetary stock will tend to an equilibrium level.

Competitive equilibrium hyperinflation under rational expectations

This paper shows that a competitive equilibrium model, where a representative agent maximizes welfare, expectations are rational and markets are in equilibrium can account for several hyperinflation stylized facts. The theory is built by combining two hypotheses, namely, a fiscal crisis that requires printing money to finance an increasing public deficit and a predicted change in an unsustainable fiscal regime.

O controle do endividamento público no Brasil: uma perspectiva comparada com os Estados Unidos

Estudando o controle do endividamento público no Brasil e Estados Unidos, este trabalho examina a eficácia das restrições constitucionais e legais existentes nestes países, os fatores políticos e de mercado que afetam o deficit público e o nível do endividamento. Enfase especial é atribuída ao papel do Senado no caso brasileiro e aos mecanismos de controle através do mercado no caso americano.

Museus federais : a aplicação de modernas técnicas de gestão para lidar com as ameaças ao seu desempenho

Os museus federais, de um modo geral, nas duas últimas décadas, têm apresentado resultados satisfatórios no desempenho de sua missão básica - preservação e difusão do acervo que detêm - sem, necessariamente, contar para isso com apoio e recursos governamentais expressivos. Ao contrário, integrantes de uma área de governo sabidamente desfavorecida de recursos orçamentários, bem como de interesse político, desprovida, ainda, de quadros altamente qualificados, desenvolveram soluções próprias e um estilo peculiar de gestão para lidar com essas dificuldades crônicas. Tais soluções gerenciais (Associações de Amigos, criatividade, abnegação, flexibilidade, intensa participação etc.), alinhadas com um modo orgânico de funcionamento e adequadas até então, acobertam, de uma maneira sutil e arriscada, um quase absoluto despreparo profissional para a implementação de sistemas de controle gerencial orientados para resultados - gestão estratégica, programação e orçamentação, controle de qualidade, capacitação técnica e gerencial, indicadores de resultados e avaliação de programas etc. A crescente concorrência de outros meios de entretenimento e lazer, o aperto no controle do déficit público e a conseqüente pressão no sentido da publicização dessas atividades (fortes candidatas a virarem organizações sociais), somados ao esperado crescimento da cobrança social pela accountabilíty de seus dirigentes formam um cenário nada promissor para essas instituições, até então, imunes aos escândalos ou, pelo menos, a uma avaliação menos favorável pela população e demais stakeholders. O julgamento ainda vigente em grande parte de sua elite técnica de que não existe inteligência no mundo da administração, um mal necessário e de convívio difícil com as artes, reforça o belo desafio a ser enfrentado nos próximos anos pelos dirigentes dessas instituições.

Terceirização de serviços públicos e reforma gerencial: o caso Secretaria da Fazenda de Pernambuco

A terceirização de serviços é considerada uma ferramenta de gestão em tempos atuais. Essa modalidade de contratação de serviços se expande em qualquer das esferas pública ou privada. Nesta última, a globalização da economia e a competição desenfreada pelo mundo impulsionam a produtividade e a otimização das etapas da produção substituindo custo fixo por variável. Na esfera pública, a partir da década de 1970, a crise fiscal prevaleceu na maioria das discussões, sugerindo a idéia neoliberal de limitar a intervenção do Estado na economia para conter o déficit público. Emerge a solução reformista de isolar num pequeno núcleo as atividades principais, que são exclusivas do Estado e intransferíveis a terceiros. Por meio da desestatização, um dos eixos da reforma, os serviços sociais são publicizáveis e a produção de bens e de serviços públicos entregues ao mercado. O foco deste trabalho se concentra na apuração do resultado que subsidie estrategicamente a Secretaria da Fazenda do Estado de Pernambuco, em termos financeiros e de eficiência administrativa, a escolher a opção mais vantajosa para a Administração entre contratar servidores efetivos via concurso público para realizar as atividades acessórias de apoio ou terceirizar os serviços.

A distribuição das receitas e dos gastos entre os niveis de governo e o desiquilibrio das contas publicas federais

A pesquisa procura identificar o elo existente entre a distribuição dos gastos e receitas públicas, entre as esferas de governo, e o desequilíbrio financeiro que se instalou no setor público federal. Desta forma, o estudo procura mostrar a evolução histórica da distribuição de tributos e encargos no Brasil, sempre procurando correlacioná-la ao crescimento da dívida pública. De forma embrionária o trabalho analisa o debate sobre a redefinição sobre o papel do Estado na economia e a participação dos atores envolvidos e suas propostas, para a diminuição do déficit público e, conseqüentemente, da dívida pública.