Reliability assessment of internal stability of reinforced soil structures: A pseudo-dynamic approach

A methodology for reliability based optimum design of reinforced soil structures subjected to horizontal and vertical sinusoidal excitation based on pseudo-dynamic approach is presented. The tensile strength of reinforcement required to maintain the stability is computed using logarithmic spiral failure mechanism. The backfill soil properties, geometric and strength properties of reinforcement are treated as random variables. Effects of parameters like soil friction angle, horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations, shear and primary wave velocities, amplification factors for seismic acceleration on the component and system probability of failures in relation to tension and pullout capacities of reinforcement have been discussed. In order to evaluate the validity of the present formulation, static and seismic reinforcement force coefficients computed by the present method are compared with those given by other authors. The importance of the shear wave velocity in the estimation of the reliability of the structure is highlighted. The Ditlevsen's bounds of system probability of failure are also computed by taking into account the correlations between three failure modes, which is evaluated using the direction cosines of the tangent planes at the most probable points of failure. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of strain localization on reliability based design of bridge abutments using pseudo-dynamic method

The paper focuses on reliability based design of bridge abutments when subjected to earthquake loading. Planar failure surface has been used in conjunction with pseudo-dynamic approach to compute the seismic active earth pressures on the bridge abutment. The proposed pseudo dynamic method, considers the effects of strain localization in the backfill soil and associated post-peak reduction in the shear resistance from peak to residual values along a previously formed failure plane, phase difference in shear waves and soil amplification along with the horizontal seismic accelerations. Four modes of stability viz. sliding, overturning, eccentricity and bearing capacity of the foundation soil are considered for the reliability analysis. The influence of various design parameters on the seismic reliability indices against four modes of failure is presented, following the suggestions of Japan Road Association, Caltrans Bridge Design Specifications and U.S Department of the Army.

Seismic reliability assessment of internal stability of reinforced soil walls using the pseudo-dynamic method

The study focuses on probabilistic assessment of the internal seismic stability of reinforced soil structures (RSS) subjected to earthquake loading in the framework of the pseudo-dynamic method. In the literature, the pseudo-static approach has been used to compute reliability indices against the tension and pullout failure modes, and the real dynamic nature of earthquake accelerations cannot be considered. The work presented in this paper makes use of the horizontal and vertical sinusoidal accelerations, amplification of vibrations, shear wave and primary wave velocities and time period. This approach is applied to quantify the influence of the backfill properties, geosynthetic reinforcement and characteristics of earthquake ground motions on reliability indices in relation to the tension and pullout failure modes. Seismic reliability indices at different levels of geosynthetic layers are determined for different magnitudes of seismic acceleration, soil amplification, shear wave and primary wave velocities. The results are compared with the pseudo-static method, and the significance of the present methodology for designing reinforced soil structures is discussed.

Pseudo-Static and Pseudo-Dynamic Stability Analysis of Tailings Dam Under Seismic Conditions

In this paper the seismic slope stability analyses are performed for a typical section of 44 m high water retention type tailings earthen dam located in the eastern part of India, using both the conventional pseudo-static and recent pseudo-dynamic methods. The tailings earthen dam is analyzed for different upstream conditions of reservoir like filled up with compacted and non-compacted dumped waste materials with different water levels of the pond tailings portion. Phreatic surface is generated using seepage analysis in geotechnical software SEEP/W and that same is used in the pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic analyses to make the approach more realistic. The minimum values of factor of safety using pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic method are obtained as 1.18 and 1.09 respectively for the chosen seismic zone in India. These values of factor of safety show clearly the demerits of conventional pseudo-static analysis compared to recent pseudo-dynamic analysis, where in addition to the seismic accelerations, duration, frequency of earthquake, body waves traveling during earthquake and amplification effects are considered.

A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

A dynamic approach for evaluating earthwork hauls in construction

A graph theoretic approach is developed for accurately computing haulage costs in earthwork projects. This is vital as haulage is a predominant factor in the real cost of earthworks. A variety of metrics can be used in our approach, but a fuel consumption proxy is recommended. This approach is novel as it considers the constantly changing terrain that results from cutting and filling activities and replaces inaccurate “static” calculations that have been used previously. The approach is also capable of efficiently correcting the violation of top down cutting and bottom up filling conditions that can be found in existing earthwork assignments and sequences. This approach assumes that the project site is partitioned into uniform blocks. A directed graph is then utilised to describe the terrain surface. This digraph is altered after each cut and fill, in order to reflect the true state of the terrain. A shortest path algorithm is successively applied to calculate the cost of each haul and these costs are summed to provide a total cost of haulage

Sampling designs on stream networks using the pseudo-Bayesian approach

Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

Seismic reliability assessment of external stability of reinforced soil walls using pseudo-dynamic method

The paper presents a method for the evaluation of external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquakes in the framework of the pseudo-dynamic method. The seismic reliability of the wall is evaluated by considering the different possible failure modes such as sliding along the base, overturning about the toe point of the wall, bearing capacity and the eccentricity of the resultant force. The analysis is performed considering properties of the reinforced backfill, foundation soil below the base of the wall, length of the geosynthetic reinforcement and characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as shear wave and primary wave velocity as random variables. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain stability against four modes of failure by targeting various component reliability indices is obtained. Differences between pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methods are clearly highlighted in the paper. A complete analysis of pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methodologies shows that the pseudodynamic method results in realistic design values for the length of geosynthetic reinforcement under earthquake conditions.

A Stochastic Chemical Dynamic Approach to Correlate Autoimmunity and Optimal Vitamin-D Range

Motivated by several recent experimental observations that vitamin-D could interact with antigen presenting cells (APCs) and T-lymphocyte cells (T-cells) to promote and to regulate different stages of immune response, we developed a coarse grained but general kinetic model in an attempt to capture the role of vitamin-D in immunomodulatory responses. Our kinetic model, developed using the ideas of chemical network theory, leads to a system of nine coupled equations that we solve both by direct and by stochastic (Gillespie) methods. Both the analyses consistently provide detail information on the dependence of immune response to the variation of critical rate parameters. We find that although vitamin-D plays a negligible role in the initial immune response, it exerts a profound influence in the long term, especially in helping the system to achieve a new, stable steady state. The study explores the role of vitamin-D in preserving an observed bistability in the phase diagram (spanned by system parameters) of immune regulation, thus allowing the response to tolerate a wide range of pathogenic stimulation which could help in resisting autoimmune diseases. We also study how vitamin-D affects the time dependent population of dendritic cells that connect between innate and adaptive immune responses. Variations in dose dependent response of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory T-cell populations to vitamin-D correlate well with recent experimental results. Our kinetic model allows for an estimation of the range of optimum level of vitamin-D required for smooth functioning of the immune system and for control of both hyper-regulation and inflammation. Most importantly, the present study reveals that an overdose or toxic level of vitamin-D or any steroid analogue could give rise to too large a tolerant response, leading to an inefficacy in adaptive immune function.

Finite element modeling of debonding failures in FRP-strengthened RC beams: A dynamic approach

This paper is concerned with the finite element simulation of debonding failures in FRP-strengthened concrete beams. A key challenge for such simulations is that common solution techniques such as the Newton-Raphson method and the arc-length method often fail to converge. This paper examines the effectiveness of using a dynamic analysis approach in such FE simulations, in which debonding failure is treated as a dynamic problem and solved using an appropriate time integration method. Numerical results are presented to show that an appropriate dynamic approach effectively overcomes the convergence problem and provides accurate predictions of test results.