Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Análisis del contexto de oportunidades y restricciones políticas bajo el cual se ha llevado a cabo la movilización del pueblo Mapuche en Chile (2000-2010)

Monografía de grado por medio de la cual a partir de la teoría de Estructura de Oportunidades y de restricciones Políticas de Sydney Tarrow, se analiza el contexto en el que la movilización mapuche emergió durante los dos últimos gobiernos del partido socialista chileno. Para ello en un primer momento se hizo un análisis histórico de la problemática indígena hasta el restablecimiento de la democracia en 1989. Paso seguido fueron analizadas las respuestas que dieron los gobiernos de Ricardo Lagos y Michelle Bachelet a la problemática indígena y mapuche, teniendo como marco la reivindicación de derechos que les fueron planteadas a dichos gobiernos.

Repression and Protest Structural Models and Strategic Interactions

The recent wave of upheavals and revolts in Northern Africa and the Middle East goes back to an old question often raised by theories of collective action: does repression act as a negative or positive incentive for further mobilization? Through a review of the vast literature devoted to this question, this article aims to go beyond theoretical and methodological dead-ends. The article moves on to non-Western settings in order to better understand, via a macro-sociological and dynamic approach, the causal effects between mobilizations and repression. It pleads for a meso- and micro-level approach to this issue: an approach that puts analytical emphasis both on protest organizations and on individual activists' careers.

Investigating Giant (Gt) Repression in the Formation of Partially Overlapping Pair-Rule Stripes

Drosophila pair-rule genes are expressed in striped patterns with a precise order of overlap between stripes of different genes. We investigated the role of Giant (Gt) in the regulation of even-skipped, hairy, runt, and fushi tarazu stripes formed in the vicinity of Gt expression domains. In gt null embryos, specific stripes of eve, h, run, and ftz are disrupted. With an ectopic expression system, we verified that stripes affected in the mutant are also repressed. Simultaneously hybridizing gt misxpressing embryos with two pair-rule gene probes, we were able to distinguish differences in the repression of pairs of stripes that overlap extensively. Together, our results showed Gt repression roles in the regulation of two groups of partially overlapping stripes and that Gt morphogen activity is part of the mechanism responsible for the differential positioning of these stripes borders. We discuss the possibility that other factors regulate Gt stripe targets as well. Developmental Dynamics 239:2989-2999, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The global sports-media nexus: Reflections on the 'Super League Saga' in Australia

Despite the social and (increasingly) commercial significance of sport and sporting bodies worldwide, they remain under-represented in the mainstream management literature. One of the more recent and dramatic examples of the global sports-media nexus is the 'Super League saga' in Australia. This paper recounts the tale of the Super League saga, providing a holistic analysis of the events and competitive issues arising by drawing on literatures concerning the economic nature and value of sports leagues, the resource-based view of the firm and the nature of psychological contracts in changing environments. The analysis confirms the general monopolistic tendencies of professional sports leagues in an increasingly global industry driven by the sports-media nexus, in accord with a number of comparable cases internationally. The particular conditions of the Australian marketplace that exacerbate this tendency beyond, for example, that found in the USA, and differences in the outcomes of battles between rival leagues are also considered. The Super League saga portrays the importance of effective management of resources key to the production of the 'rugby league product' including, among others, the often over-looked importance of careful management of local resources for the success of global strategies, and, where human resources are key, the importance of psychological contracting. The holistic analysis of the Super League saga in Australia affords lessons that extend well beyond the realm of sports.

The nexus of value chain integration and e-business applications on public sector agriculture R&D management

We examine the potential impact of interconnectivity of value chain partnerships through electronic means (e-business practices) on the management of Public Sector Agriculture R&D in Australia. We review the changing forms of managing research and development, the forces driving these changes, and R&D processes that are theoretically consistent with the move towards value chain involvement and the increase in active constituents in Public Sector Agriculture R&D. We then explore the potential of emerging e-business models to change the patterns of inter-connectivity, speed and omnipresence of partners in the value chain. Three e-business R&D management practices are identified that provide the prerequisite flexibility necessary to take advantage of opportunistic markets. These R&D business practices are: compressing R&D to reduce time to market, fostering co-development to enter a market at the last moment and building flexible products that allow adjustment at the last possible moment. Some fundamental reallocation of existing resources will be required to meet these markets. Implications of these e-business practices for R&D management are discussed.

Action, reaction and protest by publishers in 1960s Portugal: books and other publications in the Catholic opposition

The authoritarian regime of the Portuguese Estado Novo (New State), the longest dictatorship in twentieth-century Western Europe, suffered one of its most serious threats during the late 1950s and the whole of the following decade. An array of events and dynamics of opposition to the regime and condemnation of the political and social situation in Portugal appeared at that time. One of the core groups that displayed their dissidence in the 1960s, with the awakening of their critical conscience, originated in Catholic sectors that rallied the laity and the clergy to express their disagreement or even break with the government of Salazar (and, later, Marcelo Caetano). This article aims to establish the role of print culture and, in particular, publishing in the opposition’s mobilisation of Catholics who criticised the Estado Novo. It will also closely examine the contribution of certain publishers to the formulation of the terms of this mobilisation, in publishing new authors and topics and creating new printed forums (e.g. periodicals) for discussion and reflection. The most detailed case will be that of the publishing house Livraria Moraes Editora, under the command of the publisher António Alçada Baptista.

Using NEXUS compliant debuggers for real time fault injection on microprocessors

As electronic devices get smaller and more complex, dependability assurance is becoming fundamental for many mission critical computer based systems. This paper presents a case study on the possibility of using the on-chip debug infrastructures present in most current microprocessors to execute real time fault injection campaigns. The proposed methodology is based on a debugger customized for fault injection and designed for maximum flexibility, and consists of injecting bit-flip type faults on memory elements without modifying or halting the target application. The debugger design is easily portable and applicable to different architectures, providing a flexible and efficient mechanism for verifying and validating fault tolerant components.

trans-Acting factors and cis elements involved in glucose repression of arabinan degradation in Bacillus subtilis.

Journal of Bacteriology (Nov 2007) 8371-8376

Probing key DNA contacts in AraR-mediated transcriptional repression of the Bacillus subtilis arabinose regulon.

Nucleic Acid Research (2007) Vol.37 N. 14 4755-4766

Protest attitudes and stated preferences: Evidence on scale usage heterogeneity

We contribute to the stated preference literature by addressing scale usage heterogeneity regarding how individuals answer attitudinal questions capturing lack of trust in institutions and fairness issues. Using a latent class model, we conduct a contingent valuation study to elicit the willingness-to-pay to preserve a recreational site. We find evidence that respondents within the same class, that is, with similar preferences and attitudes, interpret the Likert scale differently when answering the attitudinal questions. We identify different patterns of scale usage heterogeneity within and across classes and associate them with individual characteristics. Our approach contributes to better a understanding of individual behavior in the presence of protest attitudes.