Long-term Prospects For The Environmental Profile Of Advanced Sugar Cane Ethanol.

This work assessed the environmental impacts of the production and use of 1 MJ of hydrous ethanol (E100) in Brazil in prospective scenarios (2020-2030), considering the deployment of technologies currently under development and better agricultural practices. The life cycle assessment technique was employed using the CML method for the life cycle impact assessment and the Monte Carlo method for the uncertainty analysis. Abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation, acidification, and eutrophication were the environmental impacts categories analyzed. Results indicate that the proposed improvements (especially no-til farming-scenarios s2 and s4) would lead to environmental benefits in prospective scenarios compared to the current ethanol production (scenario s0). Combined first and second generation ethanol production (scenarios s3 and s4) would require less agricultural land but would not perform better than the projected first generation ethanol, although the uncertainties are relatively high. The best use of 1 ha of sugar cane was also assessed, considering the displacement of the conventional products by ethanol and electricity. No-til practices combined with the production of first generation ethanol and electricity (scenario s2) would lead to the largest mitigation effects for global warming and abiotic depletion. For the remaining categories, emissions would not be mitigated with the utilization of the sugar cane products. However, this conclusion is sensitive to the displaced electricity sources.

Anticiper l’avenir de la prévention basée sur le risque génétique : analyse qualitative de la perception des participants à l’étude «Dessine-moi un futur!»

En cette ère de «nouvelle santé publique», les professionnels sont exhortés à détourner leur attention de l’individu afin de pouvoir mettre l’accent sur les déterminants sociaux de la santé. Un phénomène contraire s’opère dans le domaine des sciences biomédicales, où un mouvement vers la santé personnalisée permet d’envisager des soins préventifs et curatifs adaptés à chaque individu, en fonction de son profil de risque génétique. Bien qu’elles n’aient que partiellement fait leur entrée dans notre système de santé, ces avancées scientifiques risquent de changer significativement le visage de la prévention, et dans cette foulée, de susciter des débats de société importants. L'étude proposée vise à contribuer à une réflexion sur l'avenir d'une des fonctions essentielles de la santé publique en tentant de mieux comprendre comment le public perçoit la prévention basée sur le risque génétique. Ce projet de recherche qualitative consiste en l'analyse secondaire des échanges ayant eu lieu lors de quatre ateliers délibératifs auxquels ont participé des membres du public d'horizons divers, et durant lesquels ceux-ci ont débattu de la désirabilité d'une technologie préventive fictive, le «rectificateur cardiaque». La théorie de la structuration d'Anthony Giddens est utilisée comme cadre conceptuel guidant l’analyse des échanges. Celle-ci permet d’émettre les trois constats suivants: a- le « rectificateur cardiaque » est loin d’être interprété par tous les participants comme étant une intervention préventive; b- son utilisation est perçue comme étant légitime ou non dépendamment principalement des groupes de personnes qu’elle viserait; c- l’intervention proposée ne se pense pas hors contexte.

Estudio prospectivo para la facultad de odontología de la universidad cooperativa de Colombia, sede Villavicencio, 2020

Las tendencias para las Instituciones de Educación Superior, se enmarcan en ambientes cada vez menos predecibles y cambiantes. La anticipación con miras a determinar los diferentes escenarios a los que se pueda ver enfrentada este tipo de organizaciones, facilita la comprensión de los futuros posibles. Por tanto, el propósito de esta investigación se fundamenta en la realización de un estudio que permita la construcción de los escenarios de futuro para la Facultad de Odontología de la Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Sede Villavicencio, con un horizonte de tiempo al año 2020. Para esto se desarrolló la metodología basada en los planteamientos de la Prospectiva estratégica de Godet (1997), a través de tres (3) etapas: el Análisis estructural prospectivo, el Sistema de matrices de impacto cruzado y la propuesta del Escenario apuesta. Finalmente, el estudio presenta recomendaciones a los directivos de la Facultad de Odontología, relacionadas con la construcción del Escenario apuesta, catalogándose como herramienta para el direccionamiento estratégico y toma de decisiones.

Estudo prospectivo da internacionalização do etanol combustível.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo elaborar cenários para a internacionalização do etanol combustível através da metodologia da prospectiva estratégica. Após a descrição da história do desenvolvimento do etanol combustível na matriz energética brasileira, descreveram-se, além do atual mercado de etanol no Brasil e no Mundo, os principais aspectos que influenciarão no desenvolvimento de sua comercialização como commodity internacional. Para isto, é aplicada a metodologia de prospecção de cenários para a utilização do etanol no âmbito mundial. Para os cenários identificados, após a revisão das literaturas teórica e empírica sobre o tema, é elaborado um estudo que descreve estratégias de internacionalização possíveis para Petrobras Biocombustível S.A., subsidiária da Petrobras Petróleo Brasileiro S.A, responsável pelos negócios de etanol da companhia, tanto no Brasil quanto no exterior.

O futuro das ideias: análise estrutural & incertezas-críticas prospectivas para think tanks

O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar as incertezas-críticas prospectivas para fhínk fanks, importante subsídio na elaboração de cenários prospectivos para essas organizações. O enfoque é qualitativo: os dados, coletados por bibliografia e em entrevistas com executivos estratégicos da Fundação Getulio Vargas e especialistas internacionais, foram tratados pelo método da Análise Estrutural. Para tanto, utilizouse o Modelo URCA (MARQUES, 1988). Acredita-se tratar de abordagem inédita na área, pois registro de Análises Prospectivas para thínk tanks não foram localizados. A base teórica analisa diversas definições e classificações de fhínk fanks, identifica atributos comuns a tais conceitos e, a partir deste referencial, apresenta a definição de thínk tank, objeto deste estudo. Em seguida, a partir dos dados coletados, são descritas 21 variáveis prospectivas. Essa lista inicial de variáveis é submetida ao Modelo URCA de Análise Estrutural, gerando, como resultado, oito incertezascríticas prospectivas para thínk fanks: Internacionalização de thínk fanks; Globalização da agenda; Projeção internacional das nações; Concorrência entre thínk tanks; Concorrência de organizações não-governamentais, consultorias, web e similares; Quadro técnico; Corpo dirigente; e Diversificação e sustentação financeiras.

Future cenario planning in Brazilian logistics and transportation sector

Nas últimas décadas o setor de logística passou por grandes transformações pelo mundo. Assim, a eficiência do sistema logístico é importante para o crescimento econômico, a diversificação, redução dos custos operacionais e da pobreza. Segundo o Banco Mundial, o Brasil tornou-se uma das maiores economias do mundo, mas os custos logísticos elevados colocam em risco esse crescimento. Estes custos são em grande parte o resultado de diferenças em infraestrutura de cada região, juntamente com os encargos do setor rodoviário, que corresponde por 60% do total do transporte de carga do país. Entretanto, a logística brasileira está às portas de uma nova revolução, em práticas de negócios e eficiência, e também na qualidade e disponibilidade da infraestrutura de transportes e comunicações, e novos projetos e práticas para superar a situação. O objetivo deste estudo não é analisar o presente e as atuais tendências de logística do Brasil e do setor de transporte, mas sim modelar possíveis cenários futuros para os próximos anos. Em outras palavras, este trabalho mostra diferentes possibilidades de como o setor de logística e transporte poderá ser no futuro. Para isso, este trabalho irá utilizar a metodologia de cenários prospectivos e entrevistas com especialistas relacionados da área.

Modelagem espacial dinâmica para o monitoramento do aporte de sedimentos na sub-bacia do Rio Capivara, município de Botucatu - SP

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Modelagem dinâmica espacial de mudanças no uso do solo urbano: contribuição metodológica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Simulating Population Genetics of Pathogen Vectors in Changing Landscapes: Guidelines and Application with Triatoma brasiliensis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Um olhar estratégico para o Projeto “Cenários Ambientais 2020” proposto pela Secretaria de Meio Ambiente do Estado de São Paulo

In recent years the development based on a pattern of production and consumption in large-scale, established relations with degrading the environment, jeopardizing the availability of natural resources. From then on, it became necessary to integrate the environmental dimension to the other planning issues, appearing then the Environmental Planning. The objective of the Environmental Planning generally defined by society, aims help in making decisions; subsidized by a diagnosis at the same time identify and define objectives more environmentally suitable to assist in developing public policy. Thus, the development of prospective scenarios together by experts and stakeholders assists in public policy development and decision-making. In 2007, seeking to structure environmental management in the State, the Department of the Environment of São Paulo has created 21 Strategic Environmental Projects, including the project Cenários Ambientais 2020 with the goal of developing public policy proposals for medium and long term from prospective environmental scenarios. This paper reviews the methodologies used in constructing the scenarios in this project; sought to evaluate the construction process according to what is proposed by Alcamo and Henrichs (2008); and investigated the context that encouraged the development of the project

Cenários prospectivos e desenvolvimento de cidades a partir da visão de atores sociais: um estudo sobre o município de Marília/SP

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FFC

Life cycle assessment applied to municipal solid waste management: a case study

This study analyzes the environmental performance of the Municipal Solid Waste Management System (MSWMS) of Piedade, São Paulo, from a systemic perspective. A life cycle assessment (LCA) technique was applied according to an attributional approach to evaluate both the current operational situation and different prospective scenarios, which were devised based on the application of targets for recycling dry and wet waste suggested by the pre-draft version of the Brazilian Plan for Solid Waste. The life cycle impact assessment method EcoIndicator 99, in association with normalization and weighting procedures, was used to conduct the analysis. It was observed that the adoption of goals of 30%, 50% and 70% for recovering of the recyclable dry waste, resulted in improvement of the environmental performance of the waste management system under analysis, respectively of 10%, 15% and 20%. It was also possible to detect an evolution in the order of 54% in reducing impacts resulting from the adoption of targets for composting. LCA proved to be effective for the evaluation of the environmental performance of MSWMS-Piedade. However, for future evaluations, the attributional approach should be replaced by the methodological practice of substitution to enable the avoided burdens to be considered in estimations of the environmental performance municipal solid waste management systems.

Informative State-Based Video Communication

We study state-based video communication where a client simultaneously informs the server about the presence status of various packets in its buffer. In sender-driven transmission, the client periodically sends to the server a single acknowledgement packet that provides information about all packets that have arrived at the client by the time the acknowledgment is sent. In receiver-driven streaming, the client periodically sends to the server a single request packet that comprises a transmission schedule for sending missing data to the client over a horizon of time. We develop a comprehensive optimization framework that enables computing packet transmission decisions that maximize the end-to-end video quality for the given bandwidth resources, in both prospective scenarios. The core step of the optimization comprises computing the probability that a single packet will be communicated in error as a function of the expected transmission redundancy (or cost) used to communicate the packet. Through comprehensive simulation experiments, we carefully examine the performance advances that our framework enables relative to state-of-the-art scheduling systems that employ regular acknowledgement or request packets. Consistent gains in video quality of up to 2B are demonstrated across a variety of content types. We show that there is a direct analogy between the error-cost efficiency of streaming a single packet and the overall rate-distortion performance of streaming the whole content. In the case of sender-driven transmission, we develop an effective modeling approach that accurately characterizes the end-to-end performance as a function of the packet loss rate on the backward channel and the source encoding characteristics.

Determinação de cenários futuros de uso e cobertura do solo e sua influência na vulnerabilidade ambiental : o caso do município de Formosa – GO

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Tecnologia Ambiental e Recursos Hídricos, 2015.

Analyse systémique et prospective des usages de l'eau dans la région de Crans-Montana-Sierre (Suisse)

Crans-Montana-Sierre is a tourist area locateci in Rhone valley in central Valais, cha-racterized by dry climate and scarce summer precipitations. More than other regions in Switzerland, this area has suffered the effects of the drought (heat wave) that affec¬ted all Western Europe during summer 2003. In the future, climate change together with societal and economic development will signicantly modify the water need of the region and, consequently, may increase the potential conflicts of interest. Within a long term planning strategy, decision-makers require precise information about the current amount of water needed in the region, with particular attention to temporal and spatial concentration, and the forecasted amount for 2050. This work therefore aims at estimating the variation of the water demand by taking into account the influence of climate change (CH2011) and socio-economic scenarios, developed in cooperation with the competent authorities. This thesis, whose aim is to study the water management and water uses is a core part of the MontanAqua project "Water management in times of scarcity and global change" mainly because of its interdisciplinary topic at the interface between water resources, land development and the socio-political structure. Results show that socio-economic development by 2050 could have a greater impact than expected climate changes (CH2011, A1B scenarios) for the same time horizon for water demand. Demography, spatial planning, tourism and economic development are just some of the factors that could significantly affect the water consumption of the Crans-Montana-Sierre region. Compared with the future water resources available, the maximal water demand forecasted by the socio-economic scenarios developed within the project MontanAqua, could not always be satisfied. This issue, like extreme climate phenomena (as it was the summer drought occurred in 2003 or in April / May 2011), could be mitigated adopting regional management policies relating to a more rational water use and preventive storage of water resource. - Crans-Montana-Sierre est une région touristique située dans la vallée du Rhône; dans le Valais central, qui se caractérise par un climat relativement pauvre en précipitations et qui plus que d'autres a subi les effets de la sécheresse qui a touché l'Europe occidentale durant l'été 2003. À l'avenir, les changements climatiques ainsi que le développement socio-économique modifieront de manière significative les besoins en eau de la région, ce qui risque de faire augmenter les rivalités d'usage concernant cette ressource. Afin de jouer à l'avance, les décideurs ont besoin d'informations précises sur la quantité d'eau nécessaire à la région, avec une attention particulière à sa concentration temporelle et spatiale, à l'heure actuelle et à l'horizon 2050. Ce travail vise donc à estimer la variation de la demande en eau en tenant compte de l'influence des changements climatiques (CH2011) et des scénarios socio-économiques, élaborés en collaboration avec les autorités compétentes. Cette thèse, qui met l'accent sur les usages de l'eau fait partie du projet Montan Aqua « Gestion de l'eau en temps de pénurie et de changement global », est à l'intersection entre les ressources hydriques, l'aménagement du territoire et son organisation socio-politique, fait qui la met, non pas par son importance, mais par son emplacement et ses interconnexions, au coeur de cette recherche. Les résultats obtenus montrent comment les développements socio-économiques d'ici à 2050 ont un impact potentiellement plus important que les changements climatiques prévus par les scénarios AlB de CH2011 pour le même horizon temporel sur la demande en eau. Démographie, aménagement du territoire et contexte économico-touristique, ne sont que quelques-uns des facteurs qui ont la capacité d'agir significativement sur les usages de l'eau en ce qui concerne les aspects qualitatif et quantitatif de la région de Crans-Montana-Sierre. Par rapport aux ressources en eau disponibles à l'avenir, la demande maximale d'eau prévue par les scénarios socio-économiques développés au sein du projet MontanAqua risque de ne pas être toujours satisfaite. Ce danger et la manifestation de phénomènes climatiques extrêmes, comme la sécheresse estivale survenue en 2003 ou celle d'avril/mai 2011, ne pourront être atténués que par l'adoption de politiques de gestion à l'échelle régionale favorisant une utilisation plus rationnelle et un stockage préventif de la ressource en eau.