The Impact of Property Condition Disclosure Laws on Housing Prices: Evidence from an Event Study using Propensity Scores

We examine the impact of seller's Property Condition Disclosure Law on the residential real estate values. A disclosure law may address the information asymmetry in housing transactions shifting of risk from buyers and brokers to the sellers and raising housing prices as a result. We combine propensity score techniques from the treatment effects literature with a traditional event study approach. We assemble a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a quarterly panel of 291 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and 50 US States spanning 21 years from 1984 to 2004 is used to exploit the MSA level variation in house prices. The study finds that the average seller may be able to fetch a higher price (about three to four percent) for the house if she furnishes a state-mandated seller.s property condition disclosure statement to the buyer. When we compare the results from parametric and semi-parametric event analyses, we find that the semi-parametric or the propensity score analysis generals moderately larger estimated effects of the law on housing prices.

A comparison between accelerated hypofractionation and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): Results of a propensity score-matched analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) has become standard for inoperable early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, there is no randomized evidence demonstrating benefit over more fractionated radiotherapy. We compared accelerated hypofractionation (AH) and SABR using a propensity score-matched analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1997-2007, 119 patients (T1-3N0M0 NSCLC) were treated with AH (48-60Gy, 12-15 fractions). Prior to SABR, this represented our institutional standard. From 2008-2012, 192 patients (T1-3N0M0 NSCLC) were treated with SABR (48-52Gy, 4-5 fractions). A total of 114 patients (57 per cohort) were matched (1:1 ratio, caliper: 0.10) using propensity scores.

RESULTS: Median follow-up (range) for the AH cohort was 36.3 (2.5-109.1) months, while that for the SABR group was 32.5 (0.3-62.6)months. Three-year overall survival (OS) and local control (LC) rates were 49.5% vs. 72.4% [p=0.024; hazard ratio (HR): 2.33 (1.28, 4.23), p=0.006] and 71.9% vs. 89.3% [p=0.077; HR: 5.56 (1.53, 20.2), p=0.009], respectively. On multivariable analysis, tumour diameter and PET staging were predictive for OS, while the only predictive factor for LC was treatment cohort.

CONCLUSIONS: OS and LC were improved with SABR, although OS is more closely related to non-treatment factors. This represents one of the few studies comparing AH to SABR for early-stage lung cancer.

An overview of the objectives of and the approaches to propensity score analyses

The assessment of treatment effects from observational studies may be biased with patients not randomly allocated to the experimental or control group. One way to overcome this conceptual shortcoming in the design of such studies is the use of propensity scores to adjust for differences of the characteristics between patients treated with experimental and control interventions. The propensity score is defined as the probability that a patient received the experimental intervention conditional on pre-treatment characteristics at baseline. Here, we review how propensity scores are estimated and how they can help in adjusting the treatment effect for baseline imbalances. We further discuss how to evaluate adequate overlap of baseline characteristics between patient groups, provide guidelines for variable selection and model building in modelling the propensity score, and review different methods of propensity score adjustments. We conclude that propensity analyses may help in evaluating the comparability of patients in observational studies, and may account for more potential confounding factors than conventional covariate adjustment approaches. However, bias due to unmeasured confounding cannot be corrected for.

Effects of credit rating change on risk-taking

This thesis investigates whether there are changes in risk-taking behavior following an upgrade or downgrade in credit ratings. Research on effects of rating changes on capital markets is well-documented but the literature on how rating changes may affect firm behavior is sparse. Following, a downgrade in credit rating, managers may increase risk-taking to improve their overall performance or reduce risk-taking following upgrades to ensure that their performance is assessed more on the basis of what they may deem success in the form of an upgrade. Using a sample of firms trading in the U.S from 1994-2013, we find evidence of change in risk-taking behavior. We use cross-sectional regressions and matching using propensity scores and Barber and Lyon (1997) methodology to measure changes in risk-taking and we do find evidence of changes in managerial risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, we find that the direction of change (increase or decrease) in some cases is dependent on the type of measure rather than the type of rating change.

Évaluation de la performance du score de propension à hautes dimensions dans le cadre d’études observationnelles québécoises

Les scores de propension (PS) sont fréquemment utilisés dans l’ajustement pour des facteurs confondants liés au biais d’indication. Cependant, ils sont limités par le fait qu’ils permettent uniquement l’ajustement pour des facteurs confondants connus et mesurés. Les scores de propension à hautes dimensions (hdPS), une variante des PS, utilisent un algorithme standardisé afin de sélectionner les covariables pour lesquelles ils vont ajuster. L’utilisation de cet algorithme pourrait permettre l’ajustement de tous les types de facteurs confondants. Cette thèse a pour but d’évaluer la performance de l’hdPS vis-à-vis le biais d’indication dans le contexte d’une étude observationnelle examinant l’effet diabétogénique potentiel des statines. Dans un premier temps, nous avons examiné si l’exposition aux statines était associée au risque de diabète. Les résultats de ce premier article suggèrent que l’exposition aux statines est associée avec une augmentation du risque de diabète et que cette relation est dose-dépendante et réversible dans le temps. Suite à l’identification de cette association, nous avons examiné dans un deuxième article si l’hdPS permettait un meilleur ajustement pour le biais d’indication que le PS; cette évaluation fut entreprise grâce à deux approches: 1) en fonction des mesures d’association ajustées et 2) en fonction de la capacité du PS et de l’hdPS à sélectionner des sous-cohortes appariées de patients présentant des caractéristiques similaires vis-à-vis 19 caractéristiques lorsqu’ils sont utilisés comme critère d’appariement. Selon les résultats présentés dans le cadre du deuxième article, nous avons démontré que l’évaluation de la performance en fonction de la première approche était non concluante, mais que l’évaluation en fonction de la deuxième approche favorisait l’hdPS dans son ajustement pour le biais d’indication. Le dernier article de cette thèse a cherché à examiner la performance de l’hdPS lorsque des facteurs confondants connus et mesurés sont masqués à l’algorithme de sélection. Les résultats de ce dernier article indiquent que l’hdPS pourrait, au moins partiellement, ajuster pour des facteurs confondants masqués et qu’il pourrait donc potentiellement ajuster pour des facteurs confondants non mesurés. Ensemble ces résultats indiquent que l’hdPS serait supérieur au PS dans l’ajustement pour le biais d’indication et supportent son utilisation lors de futures études observationnelles basées sur des données médico-administratives.

History of hypertension and eplerenone in patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by heart failure

In the Eplerenone Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Heart Failure Efficacy and Survival Study ( n = 6632), eplerenone- associated reduction in all- cause mortality was significantly greater in those with a history of hypertension ( Hx- HTN). There were 4007 patients with Hx- HTN ( eplerenone: n = 1983) and 2625 patients without Hx- HTN ( eplerenone: n = 1336). Propensity scores for eplerenone use, separately calculated for patients with and without Hx- HTN, were used to assemble matched cohorts of 1838 and 1176 pairs of patients. In patients with Hx- HTN, all- cause mortality occurred in 18% of patients treated with placebo ( rate, 1430/ 10 000 person- years) and 14% of patients treated with eplerenone ( rate, 1058/ 10 000 person- years) during 2350 and 2457 years of follow- up, respectively ( hazard ratio [ HR]: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.85; P < 0.0001). Composite end point of cardiovascular hospitalization or cardiovascular mortality occurred in 33% of placebo-treated patients ( 3029/ 10 000 person- years) and 28% of eplerenone- treated patients (2438/10 000 person- years) with Hx- HTN ( HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.94; P = 0.003). In patients without Hx- HTN, eplerenone reduced heart failure hospitalization ( HR: 73; 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.97; P = 0.028) but had no effect on mortality ( HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.72 to 1.15; P = 0.435) or on the composite end point ( HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.10; P = 0.331). Eplerenone should, therefore, be prescribed to all of the post - acute myocardial infarction patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction and heart failure regardless of Hx- HTN.

Cause-specific mortality and income inequality in Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze cause-specifi c mortality rates according to the relative income hypothesis. METHODS: All 96 administrative areas of the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, were divided into two groups based on the Gini coefficient of income inequality: high (>= 0.25) and low (<0.25). The propensity score matching method was applied to control for confounders associated with socioeconomic differences among areas. RESULTS: The difference between high and low income inequality areas was statistically significant for homicide (8.57 per 10,000; 95% CI: 2.60; 14.53); ischemic heart disease (5.47 per 10,000 [95% CI 0.76; 10.17]); HIV/AIDS (3.58 per 10,000 [95% CI 0.58; 6.57]); and respiratory diseases (3.56 per 10,000 [95% CI 0.18; 6.94]). The ten most common causes of death accounted for 72.30% of the mortality difference. Infant mortality also had signifi cantly higher age-adjusted rates in high inequality areas (2.80 per 10,000 [95% CI 0.86; 4.74]), as well as among males (27.37 per 10,000 [95% CI 6.19; 48.55]) and females (15.07 per 10,000 [95% CI 3.65; 26.48]). CONCLUSIONS: The study results support the relative income hypothesis. After propensity score matching cause-specifi c mortality rates was higher in more unequal areas. Studies on income inequality in smaller areas should take proper accounting of heterogeneity of social and demographic characteristics.

COVARIATE-ADJUSTED NONPARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGES USING MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO

Permutation tests are useful for drawing inferences from imaging data because of their flexibility and ability to capture features of the brain that are difficult to capture parametrically. However, most implementations of permutation tests ignore important confounding covariates. To employ covariate control in a nonparametric setting we have developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for conditional permutation testing using propensity scores. We present the first use of this methodology for imaging data. Our MCMC algorithm is an extension of algorithms developed to approximate exact conditional probabilities in contingency tables, logit, and log-linear models. An application of our non-parametric method to remove potential bias due to the observed covariates is presented.

A comparison of patient characteristics and 30-day mortality outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation and surgical aortic valve replacement for the treatment of aortic stenosis: a two-centre study

AIMS: It is unclear whether transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) addresses an unmet clinical need for those currently rejected for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and whether there is a subgroup of high-risk patients benefiting more from TAVI compared to SAVR. In this two-centre, prospective cohort study, we compared baseline characteristics and 30-day mortality between TAVI and SAVR in consecutive patients undergoing invasive treatment for aortic stenosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pre-specified different adjustment methods to examine the effect of TAVI as compared with SAVR on overall 30-day mortality: crude univariable logistic regression analysis, multivariable analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics, analysis adjusted for propensity scores, propensity score matched analysis, and weighted analysis using the inverse probability of treatment (IPT) as weights. A total of 1,122 patients were included in the study: 114 undergoing TAVI and 1,008 patients undergoing SAVR. The crude mortality rate was greater in the TAVI group (9.6% vs. 2.3%) yielding an odds ratio [OR] of 4.57 (95%-CI 2.17-9.65). Compared to patients undergoing SAVR, patients with TAVI were older, more likely to be in NYHA class III and IV, and had a considerably higher logistic EuroSCORE and more comorbid conditions. Adjusted OR depended on the method used to control for confounding and ranged from 0.60 (0.11-3.36) to 7.57 (0.91-63.0). We examined the distribution of propensity scores and found scores to overlap sufficiently only in a narrow range. In patients with sufficient overlap of propensity scores, adjusted OR ranged from 0.35 (0.04-2.72) to 3.17 (0.31 to 31.9). In patients with insufficient overlap, we consistently found increased odds of death associated with TAVI compared with SAVR irrespective of the method used to control confounding, with adjusted OR ranging from 5.88 (0.67-51.8) to 25.7 (0.88-750). Approximately one third of patients undergoing TAVI were found to be potentially eligible for a randomised comparison of TAVI versus SAVR. CONCLUSIONS: Both measured and unmeasured confounding limit the conclusions that can be drawn from observational comparisons of TAVI versus SAVR. Our study indicates that TAVI could be associated with either substantial benefits or harms. Randomised comparisons of TAVI versus SAVR are warranted.

Safety profile of prasugrel and clopidogrel in patients with acute coronary syndromes in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE To assess safety up to 1 year of follow-up associated with prasugrel and clopidogrel use in a prospective cohort of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). METHODS Between 2009 and 2012, 2286 patients invasively managed for ACS were enrolled in the multicentre Swiss ACS Bleeding Cohort, among whom 2148 patients received either prasugrel or clopidogrel according to current guidelines. Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) preferentially received prasugrel, while those with non-STEMI, a history of stroke or transient ischaemic attack, age ≥75 years, or weight <60 kg received clopidogrel or reduced dose of prasugrel to comply with the prasugrel label. RESULTS After adjustment using propensity scores, the primary end point of clinically relevant bleeding events (defined as the composite of Bleeding Academic Research Consortium, BARC, type 3, 4 or 5 bleeding) at 1 year, occurred at a similar rate in both patient groups (prasugrel/clopidogrel: 3.8%/5.5%). Stratified analyses in subgroups including patients with STEMI yielded a similar safety profile. After adjusting for baseline variables, no relevant differences in major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events were observed at 1 year (prasugrel/clopidogrel: cardiac death 2.6%/4.2%, myocardial infarction 2.7%/3.8%, revascularisation 5.9%/6.7%, stroke 1.0%/1.6%). Of note, this study was not designed to compare efficacy between prasugrel and clopidogrel. CONCLUSIONS In this large prospective ACS cohort, patients treated with prasugrel according to current guidelines (ie, in patients without cerebrovascular disease, old age or underweight) had a similar safety profile compared with patients treated with clopidogrel. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER SPUM-ACS: NCT01000701; COMFORTABLE AMI: NCT00962416.

Anticoagulant vs. antiplatelet therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

AIMS The preferred antithrombotic strategy for secondary prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO) is unknown. We pooled multiple observational studies and used propensity score-based methods to estimate the comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulation (OAC) compared with antiplatelet therapy (APT). METHODS AND RESULTS Individual participant data from 12 databases of medically treated patients with CS and PFO were analysed with Cox regression models, to estimate database-specific hazard ratios (HRs) comparing OAC with APT, for both the primary composite outcome [recurrent stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or death] and stroke alone. Propensity scores were applied via inverse probability of treatment weighting to control for confounding. We synthesized database-specific HRs using random-effects meta-analysis models. This analysis included 2385 (OAC = 804 and APT = 1581) patients with 227 composite endpoints (stroke/TIA/death). The difference between OAC and APT was not statistically significant for the primary composite outcome [adjusted HR = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-1.12] or for the secondary outcome of stroke alone (adjusted HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.44-1.27). Results were consistent in analyses applying alternative weighting schemes, with the exception that OAC had a statistically significant beneficial effect on the composite outcome in analyses standardized to the patient population who actually received APT (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.99). Subgroup analyses did not detect statistically significant heterogeneity of treatment effects across clinically important patient groups. CONCLUSION We did not find a statistically significant difference comparing OAC with APT; our results justify randomized trials comparing different antithrombotic approaches in these patients.

The role and impact of transitional care utilization in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Although one out of every five gastrointestinal cancer patients needs transitional care (home-based skilled care or placement in skilled nursing or rehabilitation facilities) following treatment, few studies have examined outcomes in this population compared to patients who return home without assistance. This study has two primary goals: 1. To evaluate long-term cancer-specific outcomes in colorectal cancer patients utilizing transitional care compared to those that return home without assistance following therapy 2. To compare results using standard regression techniques and propensity scores. ^ METHODS Patients undergoing curative surgery for colorectal adenocarcinoma will be identified using data from a tertiary care Veterans Administration hospital. Survival and recurrence will then be determined from VA records and the Social Security Death Index. ^ The association between transitional care utilization and overall and disease-free survival will be evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression to adjust for confounding factors. Predictors of transitional care utilization will be assessed using multiple logistic regression to generate a propensity score which will also be used to assess differences in survival based on transitional care use. ^ POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE If transitional care utilization is associated with worse survival and recurrence following therapy then it will be important to subsequently assess the mechanism in order to target interventions to improve outcomes. If there is no difference in cancer-specific outcomes, then this project can potentially highlight benefits of supportive therapy following colorectal cancer resection.^