Opciones reales en la gerencia de proyectos

Teniendo en cuenta el escaso conocimiento y utilización de las opciones reales a la hora de realizar la evaluación financiera de un proyecto, se evidencia una oportunidad de elaborar un estado del arte de esta metodología con el fin de comparar las ventajas y las desventajas respecto a los métodos tradicionales más utilizados -- Para el desarrollo de la investigación se recurrió a información secundaria dentro de las bases de datos de la universidad EAFIT y su biblioteca, donde se encontraron artículos y material académico que arrojaron datos significativos que contribuyeron al cumplimiento de los objetivos -- Dentro de los resultados se encentra que el VPN y la TIR son las metodologías más comunes para la evaluación de proyectos en gran medida por su sencilla aplicación -- Por otro lado, las opciones reales son poco utilizadas por desconocimiento y por la aparente complejidad de su aplicación -- La mayor desventaja que presentan las metodologías tradicionales es que son estáticas, rígidas, orientadas al corto plazo y no manejan eficazmente la incertidumbre, mientras que las opciones reales tienen en cuenta la flexibilidad estratégica incorporada en un proyecto

Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Youth off the Streets "Our Place, Walgett Youth and Young Families Project" Project Evaluation.

The Project: • YOTS is a major youth specific agency established in 1991. It is a non-denominational, non-discriminatory and not-for-profit organisation, providing a wide range of services and offering a full continuum of care. It seeks to build on the strengths and positive aspects of marginalised young people and communities. • The 'Our Place, Walgett Youth and Young Families Project' further develops an existing YOTS capacity to provide services to Aboriginal young people. • The project adopted an action-research and community development model in which YOTS worked in partnership with the Youth Sub-committee of the Walgett Interagency. • Specific goals/objectives of the program were to: Coordinate youth and young family activities in partnership with local services and the community to build self-esteem, pride, resilience, motivation and skills; Contribute to the prevention and reduction of homelessness, unstable and unsafe housing and disruptive mobility (Walgett/Redfern) in youth and young families; Increase and improve collaborative engagement between youth and family focused services; and, research, adapt and implement Australian and international best-practice homelessness prevention/reduction initiatives to contribute to new models of practice relevant to rural and regional areas. • The project centred around an out-reach model that focused on providing a safe space with relevant structured activities coordinated by YOTS youth and family workers. Through community and service provider consultation, it was proposed that local services could coordinate strategies and activities and run them, where possible, from the centre, providing ease of access in a safe and supportive context. • Specific activities included: Implementing regular meetings with the stakeholders and community representatives; Developing a Terms of Reference for YOTS presence in the Walgett community; Undertaking a community consultation prior to finalising program activities; Implementing a range of recreational activities (sports, music, arts and crafts) early on in the activity; Implementing young family support initiatives; implementing a volunteering program, including volunteer support to young families through intergenerational volunteering; running a series of Culture and Healing Camps in partnership with local Elders and other services; Running a series of Music Camps; Providing alternative education support and referrals in partnership with local schools; Researching, identifying and adapting other best-practice models.

Paddock to Reef Monitoring & Evaluation - Economic analysis of ‘ABCD’ cane management for Tully

The economic analysis is based on the A, B, C and D management practice framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 by the respective natural resource management region. This document focuses on the economic implications of these management practices in the Tully region. A review of the management practices is currently being undertaken to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics.

Paddock to Reef Monitoring and Evaluation - Economic analysis of ‘ABCD’ cane management for the Burdekin Delta region.

The economic analysis is based on the A, B, C and D management practice framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 by the respective natural resource management region. This document focuses on the economic implications of these management practices in the Burdekin Delta region. A review of the management practices is currently being undertaken to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics.

Paddock to Reef Monitoring & Evaluation - Economic analysis of ‘ABCD’ cane management for the Burdekin River Irrigation Area.

The economic analysis is based on the A, B, C and D management practice framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 by the respective natural resource management region. This document focuses on the economic implications of these management practices in the Burdekin River Irrigation Area (BRIA). A review of the management practices is currently being undertaken to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics.

Physical and economic aspects associated with runoff from urban growth in the Ralston Creek watersheds /

"Project number A-053-IA and B-055-IA, Iowa State Water Resources Research Institute."

The socio-economic aspects of the fishing communities of Lake Victoria, Uganda

A baseline survey of the fishing communities was conducted in 2005/06 as one of the main studies under the Socio-economic Research and Monitoring Working Group on Lake Victoria. The overall objective of the survey was to provide a deeper understanding of the broad socio-economic characteristics and well being of the different stakeholder groups immediately dependent on the Lake Victoria fisheries. An understanding of socioeconomic status of the fishery primary stakeholders, who include fishers, artisanal processors and traders, is essential for any subsequent periodic evaluation of development. During the survey, a total of 1,235 respondents were interviewed, at 34 landing sites in all the Ugandan districts on Lake Victoria. The purpose of this fact sheet is to provide information on the fish landing beaches, people involved in fisheries, their livelihood activities and facilities available to them.

“Filling out the forms was a nightmare” : project evaluation and the reflective practitioner in community theatre in contemporary Northern Ireland

Since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, large sums have been invested in community theatre projects in Northern Ireland, in the interests of conflict transformation and peace building. While this injection of funds has resulted in an unprecedented level of applied theatre activity, opportunities to maximise learning from this activity are being missed. It is generally assumed that project evaluation is undertaken at least partly to assess the degree of success of projects against important social objectives, with a view to learning what works, what does not, and what might work in the future. However, three ethnographic case studies of organisations delivering applied theatre projects in Northern Ireland indicate that current processes used to evaluate such projects are both flawed and inadequate for this purpose. Practitioners report that the administrative work involved in applying for and justifying funding is onerous, burdensome, and occurs at the expense of artistic activity. This is a very real concern when the time and effort devoted to ‘filling out the forms’ does not ultimately result in useful evaluative information. There are strong disincentives for organisations to report honestly on their experiences of difficulties, or undesirable impacts of projects, and this problem is not transcended by the use of external evaluators. Current evaluation processes provide little opportunity to capture unexpected benefits of projects, and small but significant successes which occur in the context of over-ambitious objectives. Little or no attempt is made to assess long-term impacts of projects on communities. Finally, official evaluation mechanisms fail to capture the reflective practice and dialogic analysis of practitioners, which would richly inform future projects. The authors argue that there is a need for clearer lines of communication, and more opportunities for mutual learning, among stakeholders involved in community development. In particular, greater involvement of the higher education sector in partnership with government and non-government agencies could yield significant benefits in terms of optimizing learning from applied theatre project evaluations.

Paddock to Reef Monitoring and Evaluation: Economic analysis of ABCD cane management practices for the Mackay Whitsunday region

The economic analysis is based on the A, B, C and D management practice framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 by the respective natural resource management region. The Mackay Whitsunday ABCD management framework for sugarcane management practices was published in 2009 by the Department of Primary Industries & Fisheries (DPI&F), following the original version that was published in the Water Quality Improvement Plan: final report for Mackay Whitsunday region (2008).

Economic aspects of post-border weed risk management

Aim: Decision-making in weed management involves consideration of limited budgets, long time horizons, conflicting priorities, and as a result, trade-offs. Economics provides tools that allow these issues to be addressed and is thus integral to management of the risks posed by weeds. One of the critical issues in weed risk management during the early stages of an invasion concerns feasibility of eradication. We briefly review how economics may be used in weed risk management, concentrating on this management strategy. Location: Australia. Methods: A range of innovative studies that investigate aspects of weed risk management are reviewed. We show how these could be applied to newly invading weeds, focussing on methods for investigating eradication feasibility. In particular, eradication feasibility is analysed in terms of cost and duration of an eradication programme, using a simulation model based on field-derived parameter values for chromolaena, Chromolaena odorata. Results: The duration of an eradication programme can be reduced by investing in progressively higher amounts of search effort per hectare, but increasing search area will become relatively more expensive as search effort increases. When variation in survey and control success is taken into account, increasing search effort also reduces uncertainty around the required duration of the eradication programme. Main conclusions: Economics is integral to the management of the risks posed by weeds. Decision analysis, based on economic principles, is now commonly used to tackle key issues that confront weed managers. For eradication feasibility, duration and cost of a weed eradication programme are critical components; the dimensions of both factors can usefully be estimated through simulation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.