gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application.

Is there a relationship between the total volume of load lifted in bench press exercise and the rating of perceived exertion?

Aim. The purpose of the study was to investigate the relationship between the total volume of load lifted (TVLL) and the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) measures during different resistance training (RT) schemes using the bench press exercise. Methods. The present study was divided into two experiments. In the first experiment, 18 healthy men performed three different RT schemes: a strength oriented scheme (SS), a muscular endurance oriented scheme (ES) and a hypertrophy oriented scheme (HS). TVLL was calculated for each scheme. Mean-RPE and session-RPE were assessed. In the second experiment, 23 men performed two resistance exercise bouts at different intensities (50 %-1RM and 75%-1RM) with matched TVLL. Mean-RPE and session-RPE were also assessed. Results. SS and HS showed higher TVLL and greater RPE scores as compared to ES (P<0.05). No significant difference was observed between SS and HS. It was verified significant positive correlations between TVLL and session-RPE (SS r=0.63, HS r=0.64, ES r=0.56; P<0.05), and between mean-RPE and TVLL (SS r=0.55, HS r=0.52, ES r=0.47; P<0.05) for all schemes. No differences were observed for mean-RPE, session-RPE and TVLL between the 50%-1RM and 75%1RM. Significant positive relationships between TVLL and session-RPE (50 %-1RM r=0.61, 75 %-1RM r=0.66; p<0.05) and between TVLL and mean-RPE (50 %-1RM r=0.51, 75%1RM r=0.49; P<0.05) were observed. Conclusion. The results of this study have shown that the TVLL in RT influences RPE measures. These findings corroborates the existence of a relationship between total work performed (external training load) and perception of effort (internal training load).

Checkpoints in the progression of autoimmune disease: lessons from diabetes models.

In the last few years, data from experiments employing transgenic models of autoimmune disease have strengthened a particular concept of autoimmunity: disease results not so much from cracks in tolerance induction systems, leading to the generation of anti-self repertoire, as from the breakdown of secondary systems that keep these cells in check. T cells with anti-self specificities are readily found in disease-free individuals but ignore target tissues. This is also the case in some transgenic models, in spite of overwhelming numbers of autoreactive cells. In other instances, local infiltration and inflammation result, but they are well tolerated for long periods of time and do not terminally destroy target tissue. We review the possible molecular and cellular mechanisms that underlie these situations, with a particular emphasis on the destruction of pancreatic beta cells in transgenic models of insulin-dependent disease.

Circulating miRNAs: Potential Novel Biomarkers for Hepatopathology Progression and Diagnosis of Schistosomiasis Japonica in Two Murine Models

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis remains a major public health issue, with an estimated 230 million people infected worldwide. Novel tools for early diagnosis and surveillance of schistosomiasis are currently needed. Elevated levels of circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are commonly associated with the initiation and progression of human disease pathology. Hence, serum miRNAs are emerging as promising biomarkers for the diagnosis of a variety of human diseases. This study investigated circulating host miRNAs commonly associated with liver diseases and schistosome parasite-derived miRNAs during the progression of hepatic schistosomiasis japonica in two murine models.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Two mouse strains (C57BL/6 and BALB/c) were infected with a low dosage of Schistosoma japonicum cercariae. The dynamic patterns of hepatopathology, the serum levels of liver injury-related enzymes and the serum circulating miRNAs (both host and parasite-derived) levels were then assessed in the progression of schistosomiasis japonica. For the first time, an inverse correlation between the severity of hepatocyte necrosis and the level of liver fibrosis was revealed during S. japonicum infection in BALB/c, but not in C57BL/6 mice. The inconsistent levels of the host circulating miRNAs, miR-122, miR-21 and miR-34a in serum were confirmed in the two murine models during infection, which limits their potential value as individual diagnostic biomarkers for schistosomiasis. However, their serum levels in combination may serve as a novel biomarker to mirror the hepatic immune responses induced in the mammalian host during schistosome infection and the degree of hepatopathology. Further, two circulating parasite-specific miRNAs, sja-miR-277 and sja-miR-3479-3p, were shown to have potential as diagnostic markers for schistosomiasis japonica.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We provide the first evidence for the potential of utilizing circulating host miRNAs to indicate different immune responses and the severity of hepatopathology outcomes induced in two murine strains infected with S. japonicum. This study also establishes a basis for the early and cell-free diagnosis of schistosomiasis by targeting circulating schistosome parasite-derived miRNAs.

Annual and polyetic progression of citrus canker on trees protected with copper sprays

The effects of copper sprays on annual and polyetic progress of citrus canker, caused by Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, in the presence of the Asian citrus leafminer (Phyllocnistis citrella), were evaluated in a study conducted in a commercial orchard in northwest Parana state, Brazil, where citrus canker is endemic. Nonlinear monomolecular, logistic and Gompertz models were fitted to monthly disease incidence data (proportion of leaves with symptoms) for each treatment for three seasons. The logistic model provided the best estimate of disease progress for all years and treatments evaluated and logistic parameter estimates were used to describe polyetic disease dynamics. Although citrus canker incidence increased during each of the seasons studied, it decreased over the whole study period, more so in copper-treated trees than in water-sprayed controls. Copper treatment reduced disease incidence compared with controls in every year, especially 2004-2005, when incidence was ca. 10-fold higher in controls than in treated plots (estimated asymptote values 0 center dot 82 and 0 center dot 07, respectively). Copper treatment also reduced estimated initial disease incidence and epidemic growth rates every year.

Concomitant expression of epithelial-mesenchymal transition biomarkers in breast ductal carcinoma: Association with progression

Epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a process implicated in cancer progression in which the underlying cellular changes have been identified mainly using in vitro models. We determined the expression of some putative EMT biomarkers including E-cadherin, beta-catenin, zinc finger factor Snail (Snail), transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGF beta 1), TGF beta type II receptor (TBRII) and the HGF receptor (c-met) and their possible correlation to progression and overall survival in a series of breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive ductal carcinomas (IDC). Biomarkers were immunohistochemically determined in 55 IDC specimens from which 21 had lymph node metastases and in 95 DCIS specimens, 46 of these cases associated to invasive carcinoma, in a tissue microarray (TMA). Positive cytoplasmic staining of TGF beta 1 (78.2%), c-met (43.6%), Snail (34.5%), TBRII (100%), membranous E-cadherin (74.5%) and membranous/cytoplasmic beta-catenin (71%) were detected in the IDC samples. Metastatic lymph node samples displayed similar frequencies. A significant increase of c-met and TGF beta 1 positivity along DCIS to IDC progression was noted but only TGF beta 1 positivity was associated with presence of lymph node metastases and advanced stages in IDC. The evaluation of the other EMT markers in DCIS did not show differences in positivity rate as compared to invasive carcinomas. DCIS either pure or associated to IDC showed similar expression of the analyzed biomarkers. All the carcinomas exhibited positive expression of TBRII. Associations between the markers, determined by Spearman`s correlation coefficient, showed a significant association between TGF beta 1 and respectively E-cadherin, beta-catenin and cmet in DCIS cases, but in invasive carcinomas only cadherin and catenin were positively correlated. Kaplan-Meier survival curves revealed that none of the EMT biomarkers analyzed were correlated with survival, which was significantly determined only by clinical and hormone receptor parameters.

Impact of Atypical Retardation Patterns on Detection of Glaucoma Progression using the GDx with Variable Corneal Compensation

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of atypical retardation patterns (ARP) on detection of progressive retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) loss using scanning laser polarimetry with variable corneal compensation (VCC). DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: The study included 377 eyes of 221 patients with a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Images were obtained annually with the GDx VCC (Carl Zeiss Med, itec Inc, Dublin, California, USA), along with optic disc stereophotographs and standard automated perimetry (SAP) visual fields. Progression was determined by the Guided Progression Analysis software for SAP and by masked assessment of stereophotographs by expert graders. The typical scan score (TSS) was used to quantify the presence of ARPs on GDx VCC images. Random coefficients models were used to evaluate the relationship between ARP and RNFL thickness measurements over time. RESULTS: Thirty-eight eyes (10%) showed progression over time on visual fields, stereophotographs, or both. Changes in TSS scores from baseline were significantly associated with changes in RNFL thickness measurements in both progressing and nonprogressing eyes. Each I unit increase in TSS score was associated with a 0.19-mu m decrease in RNFL thickness measurement (P < .001) over time. CONCLUSIONS: ARPs had a significant effect on detection of progressive RNFL loss with the GDx VCC. Eyes with large amounts of atypical patterns, great fluctuations on these patterns over time, or both may show changes in measurements that can appear falsely as glaucomatous progression or can mask true changes in the RNFL. (Am J Ophthalmol 2009;148:155-163. (C) 2009 by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Comparison of HRT-3 glaucoma probability score and subjective stereophotograph assessment for prediction of progression in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

Effect of stem cells seeded onto biomaterial on the progression of experimental chronic kidney disease

Different routes for the administration of bone marrow-derived cells (BMDC) have been proposed to treat the progression of chronic renal failure (CRF). We investigated whether (1) the use of bovine pericardium (BP) as a scaffold for cell therapy would retard the progression of CAF and (2) the efficacy of cell therapy differently impacts distinct degrees of CRF. We used 2/3 and 5/6 models of renal mass reduction to simulate different stages of chronicity. Treatments consisted of BP seeded with either mesenchymal or mononuclear cells implanted in the parenchyma of remnant kidney. Renal function and proteinuria were measured at days 45 and 90 after cell implantation. BMDC treatment reduced glomerulosclerosis, interstitial fibrosis and lymphocytic infiltration. Immunohistochemistry showed decreased macrophage accumulation, proliferative activity and the expression of fibronectin and alpha-smooth muscle-actin. Our results demonstrate: (1) biomaterial combined with BMDC did retard the progression of experimental CRF; (2) cellular therapy stabilized serum creatinine (sCr), improved creatinine clearance and 1/sCr slope when administered during the less severe stages of CRF; (3) treatment with combined therapy decreased glomerulosclerosis, fibrosis and the expression of fibrogenic molecules; and (4) biomaterials seeded with BMDC can be an alternative route of cellular therapy.

Physical therapy assessment tools to evaluate disease progression and phenotype variability in Golden Retriever muscular dystrophy

Dogs suffering from Golden Retriever muscular dystrophy (GRMD) present symptoms that are similar to human patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Phenotypic variability is common in both cases and correlates with disease progression and response to therapy. Physical therapy assessment tools were used to study disease progression and assess phenotypic variability in dogs with GRMD. At 5 (TO), 9 (T1), 13 (T2) and 17 (T3) months of age, the physical features, joint ranges of motion (ROM), limb and thorax circumferences, weight and creatine kinase (CK) levels were assessed in 11 dogs with GRMD. Alterations of physical features were higher at 13 months, and different disease progression rates were observed. Passive ROM decreased until 1 year old, which was followed by a decline of elbow and tarsal ROM. Limb and thorax circumferences, which were corrected for body weight, decreased significantly between TO and T3. These measurements can be used to evaluate disease progression in dogs with GRMD and to help discover new therapies for DMD patients. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The HIF1A Functional Genetic Polymorphism at Locus +1772 Associates with Progression to Metastatic Prostate Cancer and Refractoriness to Hormonal Castration

The hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1a) is a key regulator of tumour cell response to hypoxia, orchestrating mechanisms known to be involved in cancer aggressiveness and metastatic behaviour. In this study we sought to evaluate the association of a functional genetic polymorphism in HIF1A with overall and metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) risk and with response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). The HIF1A +1772 C>T (rs11549465) polymorphism was genotyped, using DNA isolated from peripheral blood, in 1490 male subjects (754 with prostate cancer and 736 controls cancer-free) through Real-Time PCR. A nested group of cancer patients who were eligible for androgen deprivation therapy was followed up. Univariate and multivariate models were used to analyse the response to hormonal treatment and the risk for developing distant metastasis. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated to evaluate prostate cancer risk. Our results showed that patients under ADT carrying the HIF1A +1772 T-allele have increased risk for developing distant metastasis (OR, 2.0; 95%CI, 1.1-3.9) and an independent 6-fold increased risk for resistance to ADT after multivariate analysis (OR, 6.0; 95%CI, 2.2-16.8). This polymorphism was not associated with increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR, 0.9; 95%CI, 0.7-1.2). The HIF1A +1772 genetic polymorphism predicts a more aggressive prostate cancer behaviour, supporting the involvement of HIF1a in prostate cancer biological progression and ADT resistance. Molecular profiles using hypoxia markers may help predict clinically relevant prostate cancer and response to ADT.

The HIF1A Functional Genetic Polymorphism at Locus +1772 Associates with Progression to Metastatic Prostate Cancer and Refractoriness to Hormonal Castration

The hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1a) is a key regulator of tumour cell response to hypoxia, orchestrating mechanisms known to be involved in cancer aggressiveness and metastatic behaviour. In this study we sought to evaluate the association of a functional genetic polymorphism in HIF1A with overall and metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) risk and with response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). The HIF1A +1772 C>T (rs11549465) polymorphism was genotyped, using DNA isolated from peripheral blood, in 1490 male subjects (754 with prostate cancer and 736 controls cancer-free) through Real-Time PCR. A nested group of cancer patients who were eligible for androgen deprivation therapy was followed up. Univariate and multivariate models were used to analyse the response to hormonal treatment and the risk for developing distant metastasis. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated to evaluate prostate cancer risk. Our results showed that patients under ADT carrying the HIF1A +1772 T-allele have increased risk for developing distant metastasis (OR, 2.0; 95%CI, 1.1-3.9) and an independent 6-fold increased risk for resistance to ADT after multivariate analysis (OR, 6.0; 95%CI, 2.2-16.8). This polymorphism was not associated with increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR, 0.9; 95%CI, 0.7-1.2). The HIF1A +1772 genetic polymorphism predicts a more aggressive prostate cancer behaviour, supporting the involvement of HIF1a in prostate cancer biological progression and ADT resistance. Molecular profiles using hypoxia markers may help predict clinically relevant prostate cancer and response to ADT.

Iron Overload in a Murine Model of Hereditary Hemochromatosis Is Associated with Accelerated Progression of Osteoarthritis Under Mechanical Stress

OBJECTIVE: Hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) is a disease caused by mutations in the Hfe gene characterised by systemic iron overload and associated with an increased prevalence of osteoarthritis (OA) but the role of iron overload in the development of OA is still undefined. To further understand the molecular mechanisms involved we have used a murine model of HH and studied the progression of experimental OA under mechanical stress. DESIGN: OA was surgically induced in the knee joints of 10-week-old C57BL6 (wild-type) mice and Hfe-KO mice. OA progression was assessed using histology, micro CT, gene expression and immunohistochemistry at 8 weeks after surgery. RESULTS: Hfe-KO mice showed a systemic iron overload and an increased iron accumulation in the knee synovial membrane following surgery. The histological OA score was significantly higher in the Hfe-KO mice at 8 weeks after surgery. Micro CT study of the proximal tibia revealed increased subchondral bone volume and increased trabecular thickness. Gene expression and immunohistochemical analysis showed a significant increase in the expression of matrix metallopeptidase 3 (MMP-3) in the joints of Hfe-KO mice compared with control mice at 8 weeks after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: HH was associated with an accelerated development of OA in mice. Our findings suggest that synovial iron overload has a definite role in the progression of HH-related OA