An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Amine-functionalised hexagonal mesoporous silica as support for copper(II) acetylacetonate catalyst

Copper(II) acetylacetonate was anchored onto a hexagonal mesoporous silica (HMS) material using a two-step procedure: (i) functionalisation of the surface hydroxy groups with (3-aminopropyl)triethoxysilane (AMPTSi) and then (ii) anchoring of the copper(II) complex through Schiff condensation with free amine groups, using two different metal complex loadings. Upon the first step, nitrogen elemental analysis, XPS and DRIFT showed the presence of amine groups on the surface of the HMS material, and porosimetry indicated that the structure of the mesoporous material remained unchanged, although a slight decrease in surface area was observed. Atomic absorption, XPS and DRIFT showed that copper(II) acetylacetonate was anchored onto the amine-functionalised HMS by Schiff condensation between the free amine groups and the carbonyl groups of the copper(II) complex; using EPR an NO3 coordination sphere was proposed for the anchored copper(II) complex. The new [Cu(acac)2]-AMPTSi/HMS materials were tested in the aziridination of styrene at room temperature, using PhI=NTs as nitrogen source and acetonitrile as solvent. The styrene conversion and total TON of the heterogeneous phase reaction are higher than those of the same reaction catalysed in homogeneous phase by [Cu(acac)2]; nevertheless, the initial activity decreases and the reaction time increases due to substrate and product diffusion limitations. The heterogeneous catalyst showed a successive slight decrease in catalytic activity when reused for two more times. © Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 2006.

An examination of NPD models in the context of business models

Most prior new product diffusion (NPD) models do not specifically consider the role of the business model in the process. However, the context of NPD in today's market has been changed dramatically by the introduction of new business models. Through reinterpretation and extension, this paper empirically examines the feasibility of applying Bass-type NPD models to products that are commercialized by different business models. More specifically, the results and analysis of this study consider the subscription business model for service products, the freemium business model for digital products, and a pre-paid and post-paid business model that is widely used by mobile network providers. The paper offers new insights derived from implementing the models in real-life cases. It also highlights three themes for future research.

An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental Measurement of Water Diffusion through Fine Aggregate Mixtures

The water diffusion attributable to concentration gradients is among the main mechanisms of water transport into the asphalt mixture. The transport of small molecules through polymeric materials is a very complex process, and no single model provides a complete explanation because of the small molecule`s complex internal structure. The objective of this study was to experimentally determine the diffusion of water in different fine aggregate mixtures (FAM) using simple gravimetric sorption measurements. For the purposes of measuring the diffusivity of water, FAMs were regarded as a representative homogenous volume of the hot-mix asphalt (HMA). Fick`s second law is generally used to model diffusion driven by concentration gradients in different materials. The concept of the dual mode diffusion was investigated for FAM cylindrical samples. Although FAM samples have three components (asphalt binder, aggregates, and air voids), the dual mode was an attempt to represent the diffusion process by only two stages that occur simultaneously: (1) the water molecules are completely mobile, and (2) the water molecules are partially mobile. The combination of three asphalt binders and two aggregates selected from the Strategic Highway Research Program`s (SHRP) Materials Reference Library (MRL) were evaluated at room temperature [23.9 degrees C (75 degrees F)] and at 37.8 degrees C (100 degrees F). The results show that moisture uptake and diffusivity of water through FAM is dependent on the type of aggregate and asphalt binder. At room temperature, the rank order of diffusivity and moisture uptake for the three binders was the same regardless of the type of aggregate. However, this rank order changed at higher temperatures, suggesting that at elevated temperatures different binders may be undergoing a different level of change in the free volume. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)MT.1943-5533.0000190. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Evaluation of the buccal vestibule-palatal diffusion of 4% articaine hydrochloride in impacted maxillary third molar extractions

Aims: The aim of this study was to evaluate the vestibular-palatal diffusion of 4% articaine with epinephrine 1: 100,000 and 1: 200,000, in impacted maxillary third molar extractions, without palatal injection. Materials and Method: Two hundred teeth were selected from patients age 15 to 46. Patients were divided into 4 groups: 1A, were anesthetized with 4% articaine 1: 100,000 and the surgery was initiated 5 minutes following anesthesia. 1B, used 4% articaine 1: 100,000 but the surgery was started 10 minutes after anesthesia. 2A, used 4% articaine 1: 200,000 the surgery was started 5 minutes after. 2B, used 4% articaine 1: 200,000 but 10 minutes was allowed for anesthetic diffusion before the initiation of in groups (50 extractions each) only buccal vestibule anesthesia was initially administered (i.e. no palatal injections were used). Results: The rate of sufficient vestibule-palatal diffusion, as determined by the lack of necessity of supplemental palatal anesthesia, was: 1A(84%), 1B(98%), 2A(78%), 2B(82%). Chi-square (X2) and residual analyses showed that a higher vestibule-palatal diffusion was obtained using 4% articaine 1: 100,000 with a period of 10 minutes (p<0.05). Conclusions: Most of the extractions could be performed only with vestibule anesthesia. However, vasoconstrictor concentration and the time interval between administration of the anesthetic and initiation of surgery did influence buccal vestibule-palatal diffusion of 4% articaine in the extraction models used.

Influence of network effects on the diffusion of information systems: the case of open source

Doutoramento em Gestão

Voltammetric analysis of mancozeb and its degradation product ethylenethiourea

The purpose of this work was to develop a reliable alternative method for the determination of the dithiocarbamate pesticide mancozeb (MCZ) in formulations. Furthermore, a method for the analysis of MCZ's major degradation product, ethylenethiourea (ETU), was also proposed. Cyclic voltammetry was used to characterize the electrochemical behavior of MCZ and ETU, and square-wave adsorptive stripping voltammetry (SWAdSV) was employed for MCZ quantification in commercial formulations. It was found that both MCZ and ETU are irreversibly reduced (− 0.6 V and − 0.5 V vs Ag/AgCl, respectively) at the surface of a glassy carbon electrode in a mainly diffusion-controlled process, presenting maximum peak current intensities at pH 7.0 (in phosphate buffered saline electrolyte). Several parameters of the SWAdSV technique were optimized and linear relationships between concentration and peak current intensity were established between 10–90 μmol L− 1 and 10–110 μmol L− 1 for MCZ and ETU, respectively. The limits of detection were 7.0 μmol L− 1 for MCZ and 7.8 μmol L− 1 for ETU. The optimized method for MCZ was successfully applied to the quantification of this pesticide in two commercial formulations. The developed procedures provided accurate and precise results and could be interesting alternatives to the established methods for quality control of the studied products, as well as for analysis of MCZ and ETU in environmental samples.

A technology diffusion perspective of Enterprise Resource Planning across European Small and Medium Enterprises: from determinants to Use to Value

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Gestão de Informação

The growth and diffusion of knowlegde and the theory of the firm

We analyze the implications of a market imperfection related to the inability to establish intellectual property rights, that we label {\it unverifiable communication}. Employees are able to collude with external parties selling ``knowledge capital'' of the firm. The firm organizer engages in strategic interaction simultaneously with employees and competitors, as she introduces endogenous transaction costs in the market for information between those agents. Incentive schemes and communication costs are the key strategic variables used by the firm to induce frictions in collusive markets. Unverifiable communication introduces severe allocative distortions, both at internal product development and at intended sale of information (technology transfer). We derive implications of the model for observable decisions like characteristics of the employment relationship (full employment, incompatibility with other jobs), firms' preferences over cluster characteristics for location decisions, optimal size at entry, in--house development vs sale strategies for innovations and industry evolution.

Input diffusion and the evolution of production networks

What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted in the productionof new or improved goods? Why are some inputs much more prominent than others? We modelthe evolution of input linkages as a process where new producers first search for potentially usefulinputs and then decide which ones to adopt. A new product initially draws a set of 'essentialsuppliers'. The search stage is then confined to the network neighborhood of the latter, i.e., to theinputs used by the essential suppliers. The adoption decision is driven by a tradeoff between thebenefits accruing from input variety and the costs of input adoption. This has important implicationsfor the number of forward linkages that a product (input variety) develops over time. Inputdiffusion is fostered by network centrality ? an input that is initially represented in many networkneighborhoods is subsequently more likely to be adopted. This mechanism also delivers a powerlaw distribution of forward linkages. Our predictions continue to hold when varieties are aggregatedinto sectors. We can thus test them, using detailed sectoral US input-output tables. We showthat initial network proximity of a sector in 1967 significantly increases the likelihood of adoptionthroughout the subsequent four decades. The same is true for rapid productivity growth in aninput-producing sector. Our empirical results highlight two conditions for new products to becomecentral nodes: initial network proximity to prospective adopters, and technological progress thatreduces their relative price. Semiconductors met both conditions.

Predicting diffusion of innovations with self-organisation and machine learning

The main subject of this master's thesis was predicting diffusion of innovations. The prediction was done in a special case: product has been available in some countries, and based on its diffusion in those countries the prediction is done for other countries. The prediction was based on finding similar countries with Self-Organizing Map~(SOM), using parameters of countries. Parameters included various economical and social key figures. SOM was optimised for different products using two different methods: (a) by adding diffusion information of products to the country parameters, and (b) by weighting the country parameters based on their importance for the diffusion of different products. A novel method using Differential Evolution (DE) was developed to solve the latter, highly non-linear optimisation problem. Results were fairly good. The prediction method seems to be on a solid theoretical foundation. The results based on country data were good. Instead, optimisation for different products did not generally offer clear benefit, but in some cases the improvement was clearly noticeable. The weights found for the parameters of the countries with the developed SOM optimisation method were interesting, and most of them could be explained by properties of the products.

Multicomponent diffusion during Prato cheese ripening: mathematical modeling using the finite element method

The partial replacement of NaCl by KCl is a promising alternative to produce a cheese with lower sodium content since KCl does not change the final quality of the cheese product. In order to assure proper salt proportions, mathematical models are employed to control the product process and simulate the multicomponent diffusion during the reduced salt cheese ripening period. The generalized Fick's Second Law is widely accepted as the primary mass transfer model within solid foods. The Finite Element Method (FEM) was used to solve the system of differential equations formed. Therefore, a NaCl and KCl multicomponent diffusion was simulated using a 20% (w/w) static brine with 70% NaCl and 30% KCl during Prato cheese (a Brazilian semi-hard cheese) salting and ripening. The theoretical results were compared with experimental data, and indicated that the deviation was 4.43% for NaCl and 4.72% for KCl validating the proposed model for the production of good quality, reduced-sodium cheeses.

Quality management and competitiveness: the diffusion of the ISO 9000 standards in Latin America and recommendations for government strategies

Includes bibliography

Editorial genesis: From comparing texts (product) to interpreting rewritings (process)

In literary genetics, “editorial genetics” deals with the “public life” of texts, whereas the writing process is affected by edition and diffusion. Editorial genetics frequently has to deal with cases of “editorial rewriting”: in the literary domain for example, authors frequently modify previously published works, so that several versions may co-exist. We are especially interested in Balzac’s La Bourse (translated in English as The Purse) since we know three authorized versions of this specific work.By comparing different texts associated with a single work, the literary geneticist is facing different products that are themselves the result of a writing process. However, different specificities should be outlined: (1) the writing process does not leave any trace: we just have access to different products/texts and (2) since the texts we compare seem to be achieved, differences must be referred, not to programmatic or temporary linguistic structures, but to the reconfiguration of a pre-existing textuality.Do such products still reflect the processes that have given birth to them? Does the comparison between two texts considered as variations of a same text give access to this transformation’s processes? After describing the objects of this particular textual comparison and the terminology that permits to give an account of such phenomenon, this contribution suggests to express these questions differently, as a matter of poetics of transitions between texts, or, further digging, an hermeneutics of the transition between texts.