Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers and predictability

Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. We illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool-season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability from the Pacific is greater for wetter than average summer months than for months that are drier than average, whereas for the Indian Ocean the relationship has greater linearity. Several cool-season EOTs are associated with mid-latitude synoptic-scale patterns along the south and east coasts. These patterns have common atmospheric signatures denoting moist onshore flow and strong cyclonic anomalies often to the north of a blocking anti-cyclone. Tropical cyclone activity is observed to have significant relationships with some warm season EOTs. This analysis shows that extreme rainfall variability in Australia can be related to remote drivers and local synoptic-scale patterns throughout the year.

Complexity, evolution, and the structure of demand

This chapter argues that evolutionary economics should be founded upon complex systems theory rather than neo-Darwinian analogies concerning natural selection, which focus on supply side considerations and competition amongst firms and technologies. It suggests that conceptions such as production and consumption functions should be replaced by network representations, in which the preferences or, more correctly, the aspirations of consumers are fundamental and, as such, the primary drivers of economic growth. Technological innovation is viewed as a process that is intermediate between these aspirational networks, and the organizational networks in which goods and services are produced. Consumer knowledge becomes at least as important as producer knowledge in determining how economic value is generated. It becomes clear that the stability afforded by connective systems of rules is essential for economic flexibility to exist, but that too many rules result in inert and structurally unstable states. In contrast, too few rules result in a more stable state, but at a low level of ordered complexity. Economic evolution from this perspective is explored using random and scale free network representations of complex systems.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

Using strategically applied grazing to manage invasive alien plants in novel grasslands

Introduction Novel ecosystems that contain new combinations of invasive alien plants (IAPs) present a challenge for managers. Yet, control strategies that focus on the removal of the invasive species and/or restoring historical disturbance regimes often do not provide the best outcome for long-term control of IAPs and the promotion of more desirable plant species. Methods This study seeks to identify the primary drivers of grassland invasion to then inform management practices toward the restoration of native ecosystems. By revisiting both published and unpublished data from experiments and case studies within mainly an Australian context for native grassland management, we show how alternative states models can help to design control strategies to manage undesirable IAPs by manipulating grazing pressure. Results Ungulate grazing is generally considered antithetical to invasive species management because in many countries where livestock production is a relatively new disturbance to grasslands (such as in Australia and New Zealand as well as Canada and the USA), selective grazing pressure may have facilitated opportunities for IAPs to establish. We find that grazing stock can be used to manipulate species composition in favour of the desirable components in pastures, but whether grazing is rested or strategically applied depends on the management goal, sizes of populations of the IAP and more desirable species, and climatic and edaphic conditions. Conclusions Based on our findings, we integrated these relationships to develop a testable framework for managing IAPs with strategic grazing that considers both the current state of the plant community and the desired future state—i.e. the application of the principles behind reclamation, rehabilitation, restoration or all three—over time.

Monitoring the levels of important nutrients in the food supply

A food supply that delivers energy-dense products with high levels of salt, saturated fats and trans fats, in large portion sizes, is a major cause of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The highly processed foods produced by large food corporations are primary drivers of increases in consumption of these adverse nutrients. The objective of this paper is to present an approach to monitoring food composition that can both document the extent of the problem and underpin novel actions to address it. The monitoring approach seeks to systematically collect information on high-level contextual factors influencing food composition and assess the energy density, salt, saturated fat, trans fats and portion sizes of highly processed foods for sale in retail outlets (with a focus on supermarkets and quick-service restaurants). Regular surveys of food composition are proposed across geographies and over time using a pragmatic, standardized methodology. Surveys have already been undertaken in several high- and middle-income countries, and the trends have been valuable in informing policy approaches. The purpose of collecting data is not to exhaustively document the composition of all foods in the food supply in each country, but rather to provide information to support governments, industry and communities to develop and enact strategies to curb food-related NCDs.

Opsin clines in butterflies suggest novel roles for insect photopigments

Opsins are ancient molecules that enable animal vision by coupling to a vitamin-derived chromophore to form lightsensitive photopigments. The primary drivers of evolutionary diversification in opsins are thought to be visual tasks related to spectral sensitivity and color vision. Typically, only a few opsin amino acid sites affect photopigment spectral sensitivity. We show that opsin genes of the North American butterfly Limenitis arthemis have diversified along a latitudinal cline, consistent with natural selection due to environmental factors. We sequenced single nucleotide(SNP) polymorphisms in the coding regions of the ultraviolet (UVRh), blue (BRh), and long-wavelength (LWRh) opsin genes from ten butterfly populations along the eastern United States and found that a majority of opsin SNPs showed significant clinal variation. Outlier detection and analysis of molecular variance indicated that many SNPs are under balancing selection and show significant population structure. This contrasts with what we found by analysing SNPs in the wingless and EF-1 alpha loci, and from neutral amplified fragment length polymorphisms, which show no evidence of significant locus-specific or genome-wide structure among populations. Using a combination of functional genetic and physiological approaches, including expression in cell culture, transgenic Drosophila, UV-visible spectroscopy, and optophysiology, we show that key BRh opsin SNPs that vary clinally have almost no effect on spectral sensitivity. Our results suggest that opsin diversification in this butterfly is more consistent with natural selection unrelated to spectral tuning. Some of the clinally varying SNPs may instead play a role in regulating opsin gene expression levels or the thermostability of the opsin protein. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that insect opsins might have important, yet-to-be elucidated, adaptive functions in mediating animal responses to abiotic factors, such as temperature or photoperiod.

Unpredictability, invisibility and vulnerability: Unaccompanied asylum-seeking minors’ journeys to Australia

This qualitative study investigated the refugee journey of 17 males who arrived in Australia as unaccompanied asylum-seeking minors between 2009 and 2013, and were granted protection visas. The paper focuses on the four conceptual challenges of refugee journeys, as identified recently by BenEzer and Zetter: temporal characteristics; drivers and destinations; the process/content of the journey; and the characteristics of the wayfarers. The findings indicate that their mental journey has not yet ended and transcends the physical departure-arrival voyage. Although the primary drivers for the refugee journey were protection reasons, their desire to find a “better life” free from violence and exclusion also played an important role. The irregular character of the journey made it highly unpredictable, exposed these minors to extreme levels of vulnerability and the need to remain invisible, prompted short lived friendships with other asylum seekers, and created a pervasive feeling of mistrust towards smugglers and other people they met along the way. The study has highlighted the need for interventions to protect unaccompanied minors during their refugee journey.

Satisfaction with fishing and the desire to leave

Predicting who may leave a fishery is an important consideration when designing capacity reduction programs to enhance both ecological and economic sustainability. In this paper, the relationship between satisfaction and the desire to exit a fishery is examined for the Queensland East Coast Trawl fishery. Income from fishing, and changes in income over the last 5 years, were key factors affecting overall satisfaction. Relative income per se was not a significant factor, counter to most satisfaction studies. Continuing a family tradition of fishing and, for one group, pride in being a fisher was found to be significant. Satisfaction with fishing overall and the challenge of fishing were found to be the primary drivers of the desire to stay or leave the fishery. Surprisingly, public perceptions of fishing, trust in management and perceptions of equity in resource allocation did not significantly affect overall satisfaction or the desire to exit the fishery.

Northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in deglacial atmospheric CH4

Peatlands are a key component of the global carbon cycle. Chronologies of peatland initiation are typically based on compiled basal peat radiocarbon (14C) dates and frequency histograms of binned calibrated age ranges. However, such compilations are problematic because poor quality 14C dates are commonly included and because frequency histograms of binned age ranges introduce chronological artefacts that bias the record of peatland initiation. Using a published compilation of 274 basal 14C dates from Alaska as a case study, we show that nearly half the 14C dates are inappropriate for reconstructing peatland initiation, and that the temporal structure of peatland initiation is sensitive to sampling biases and treatment of calibrated14C dates. We present revised chronologies of peatland initiation for Alaska and the circumpolar Arctic based on summed probability distributions of calibrated 14C dates. These revised chronologies reveal that northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in atmospheric CH4 concentration at the start of the Bølling–Allerød interstadial (Termination 1A) and the end of the Younger Dryas chronozone (Termination 1B), suggesting that northern peatlands were not the primary drivers of the rapid increases in atmospheric CH4. Our results demonstrate that subtle methodological changes in the synthesis of basal 14C ages lead to substantially different interpretations of temporal trends in peatland initiation, with direct implications for the role of peatlands in the global carbon cycle.

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.

An evolutionary innovation perspective on the selection of low and zero carbon technologies in new housing

The Code for Sustainable Homes (the Code) will require new homes in the United Kingdom to be ‘zero carbon’ from 2016. Drawing upon an evolutionary innovation perspective, this paper contributes to a gap in the literature by investigating which low and zero carbon technologies are actually being used by house builders, rather than the prevailing emphasis on the potentiality of these technologies. Using the results from a questionnaire three empirical contributions are made. First, house builders are selecting a narrow range of technologies. Second, these choices are made to minimise the disruption to their standard design and production templates (SDPTs). Finally, the coalescence around a small group of technologies is expected to intensify with solar-based technologies predicted to become more important. This paper challenges the dominant technical rationality in the literature that technical efficiency and cost benefits are the primary drivers for technology selection. These drivers play an important role but one which is mediated by the logic of maintaining the SDPTs of the house builders. This emphasises the need for construction diffusion of innovation theory to be problematized and developed within the context of business and market regimes constrained and reproduced by resilient technological trajectories.

Gap-crossing decisions of forest birds in a fragmented landscape

Habitat loss and fragmentation are recognized as primary drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide. To understand the functional effects of habitat fragmentation on bird populations, data on movement across gaps in habitat cover are necessary, although rarely available. In this study, we used call playback to simulate a conspecific territorial intruder to entice birds to move through the landscape in a predictable and directional manner. We then quantified the probability of movement in continuous forest and across cleared gaps for two forest-dependent species, the grey shrike-thrush (Colluricincla harmonica) and the white-throated treecreeper (Cormobates leucophaeus). Fifty-four playback trials were conducted for each species across distances ranging from 25 to 480 m in continuous forest and 15-260 m across gaps in a forest-agricultural landscape in southern Victoria, Australia. The probability of movement was significantly reduced by gaps in forest cover for both species. Shrike-thrushes were six times more likely to move 170 m in continuous forest than to cross 170-m gaps. The mean probability that treecreepers would cross any gap at all was less than 0.5, and they were three times less likely to move 50 m across a gap than through continuous forest. Both species displayed non-linear responses to increasing gap distance: we identified a gap-tolerance threshold of 85 m for the shrike-thrush and 65 m for the treecreeper beyond which individuals were most unlikely to cross. The presence of scattered paddock trees increased functional connectivity for the shrike-thrush, with individuals crossing up to 260 m when scattered trees were present. We conclude that gaps in habitat cover are barriers to movement, and that characteristics of the intervening matrix influence landscape permeability.

Age, Sex, and Telomere Dynamics in a Long-Lived Seabird with Male-Biased Parental Care

The examination of telomere dynamics is a recent technique in ecology for assessing physiological state and age-related traits from individuals of unknown age. Telomeres shorten with age in most species and are expected to reflect physiological state, reproductive investment, and chronological age. Loss of telomere length is used as an indicator of biological aging, as this detrimental deterioration is associated with lowered survival. Lifespan dimorphism and more rapid senescence in the larger, shorter-lived sex are predicted in species with sexual size dimorphism, however, little is known about the effects of behavioral dimorphism on senescence and life history traits in species with sexual monomorphism. Here we compare telomere dynamics of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), a species with male-biased parental care, in two ways: 1) cross-sectionally in birds of known-age (0-28 years) from one colony and 2) longitudinally in birds from four colonies. Telomere dynamics are compared using three measures: the telomere restriction fragment (TRF), a lower window of TRF (TOE), and qPCR. All showed age-related shortening of telomeres, but the TRF measure also indicated that adult female murres have shorter telomere length than adult males, consistent with sex-specific patterns of ageing. Adult males had longer telomeres than adult females on all colonies examined, but chick telomere length did not differ by sex. Additionally, inter-annual telomere changes may be related to environmental conditions; birds from a potentially low quality colony lost telomeres, while those at more hospitable colonies maintained telomere length. We conclude that sex-specific patterns of telomere loss exist in the sexually monomorphic thick-billed murre but are likely to occur between fledging and recruitment. Longer telomeres in males may be related to their homogamous sex chromosomes (ZZ) or to selection for longer life in the care-giving sex. Environmental conditions appeared to be the primary drivers of annual changes in adult birds.