Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence

We examine the short-term price reaction of 424 UK stocks to large one-day price changes. Using the GJR-GARCH(1,1), we find no statistical difference amongst the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the Single Index, the Fama–French and the Carhart–Fama–French models. Shocks bigger or equal to 5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of 1% for all the models. Whilst shocks smaller or equal to -5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of -0.43% for the Single Index, the CARs are around -0.34% for the other two models. Positive shocks of all sizes and negative shocks maller or equal to -5% are followed by return continuations, whilst the market is efficient following larger negative shocks. The price reaction to shocks is unaffected when we estimate the CARs using the conditional covariances of the pricing variables.

Estratégias defensivas em contexto nacional e comportamentos acionistas das empresas em situação de OPA

A compreensão do conceito de OPA é essencial de forma a entender o funcionamento das combinações empresariais. Esta dissertação tem dois objetivos. O primeiro objetivo tem a finalidade de perceber quais as estratégias defensivas mais eficazes em contexto de OPA. Foi através de um inquérito realizado a 192 empresas envolvidas em situação de OPA entre os anos 1991 e 2014. Através dos resultados das 14 respostas destaca-se que a Recompra de Ações é a estratégia defensiva mais utilizada, tanto em situações de defesas pré-proposta e pós-proposta. A defesa consegue evitar o sucesso, da proposta efetuada pela empresa adquirente, em mais de metade das situações em que é utilizada, tendo sido classificada como muito eficaz. 5 das operações foram de cariz hostil e 7 delas eram expectáveis pela Gestão. Em nenhuma das operações se verificou contraoperação e as áreas mais prejudicadas, pela iniciativa de OPA, foram as respeitantes ao tempo, Time-consuming, e estratégicas. O segundo objetivo tenta perceber o comportamento dos retornos médios anormais das empresas envolvidas numa OPA em face do respetivo anúncio preliminar. Seguiram-se as metodologias de Ball & Brown (1968) e Beaver (1968). Identificaram-se 100 operações compreendidas entre os anos 2000 e 2014. Através do resultado das 12 operações analisadas confirma-se que as empresas-alvo apresentam um retorno médio anormal superior ao das empresas adquirentes e que têm a tendência de acumular retornos médios anormais positivos, pelo contrário as empresas adquirentes têm a tendência de acumular retornos médios anormais negativos. Globalmente, as empresas reagem fortemente ao anúncio preliminar e apresentam uma tendência de ganho nos períodos circundantes e não-circundantes.

Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders'horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model whereall traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects,myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity ofequilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise.Along the first equilibrium, short term tradersanticipate higher second period price reaction toinformation arrival and, owing to risk aversion,scale back their trading intensity. This, in turn,reduces both risk sharing and information impoundinginto prices enforcing a high returns' volatility-lowprice informativeness equilibrium. In the second one,the opposite happens and a low volatility-high priceinformativeness equilibrium arises.

Omien osakkeiden hankinta Suomessa

Tämän tutkielman päätavoitteena on ollut selvittää omien osakkeiden hankintaa ja hankintatarkoituksien järkevyyttä Suomessa, sekä tutkia aikaisempien empiiristen tutkimusten avulla, onko omien osakkeiden hankinta perusteltua myös osakkeenomistajien kannalta. Lisäksi tutkielman tavoitteena on nostaa esille sellaisia näkökohtia ja säännöksiä, joita osakkeenomistajien ja yritysjohdon tulisi painottaa ja ottaa huomioon tehdessään omien osakkeiden hankintapäätöksiä. Tämän tutkimuksen tutkimusmetodologia mukailee hyvin pitkälti käsiteanalyyttista tutkimusotetta. Tutkimuksen johtopäätökset ovat lähinnä toteavia ja suosittelevia. Empiria tulee mukaan käsiteanalyyttiselle tutkimusotteelle tyypilliseen tapaan eli aikaisempien jo olemassa olevien empiiristen tutkimusten muodossa.Suomessa omien osakkeiden hankinnasta saavutetut hyödyt eivät ole osakkeenomistajien kannalta aivan yhtä helposti saavutettavissa kuin Yhdysvalloissa. Suomessa omien osakkeiden käyttö vaihtoehtoisena voitonjaon keinona on osakkeenomistajien kannalta verotuksessa huonompi vaihtoehto kuin osingot. Tällä hetkellä omien osakkeiden hankinta on pikemminkin yhtiön keino rahoittaa yrityskauppoja, henkilökunnan optiojärjestelyjä, siistiä tasetta, jakaa ylimääräisiä kassavaroja osakkeenomistajille ja yritys vaikuttaa osakekurssiin. Omien osakkeiden hankinta on mahdollista toteuttaa Suomessa osakkeenomistajia hyödyntävällä tavalla, mutta omien osakkeiden hankintamenettelyä on kehitettävä mm. tekemällä todellisia omien osakkeiden hankintoja ja esittämällä hankintatarkoitukset luotettavammin. Empiiristen evidenssien mukaan omien osakkeiden hankinta esimerkiksi julkisella ostotarjouksella markkinahintaa korkeampaan hintaan voisi edesauttaa johdon välittämän ”sisäpiiritiedon” ymmärtämistä myös Suomessa.

Osakemarkkinoiden hintareaktiot luottoluokituksen muutokseen eri lainsäädäntöympäristössä

Tämän tutkielman tarkoituksena on selvittää reagoivatko osakemarkkinat eritavoin luottoluokituksen muutokseen eri lainsäädäntöympäristöissä. Lisäksi selvitetään myös reagoivatko pienten yhtiöiden osakekurssit erilailla luottoluokituksen muutokseen kuin suurten yhtiöiden osakekurssit. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään tapahtumatutkimusta ja aineiston muodostavat Moody'sin luottoluokitusilmoitukset vuosilta 2000-2007. Tutkielman kohdemaina ovat Iso-Britannia, Ranska sekä Pohjoismaat Empiiristen tulosten perusteella ainoastaan luottoluokituksen laskun yhteydessä näyttää siltä, että lainsäädäntöympäristön ja markkinareaktion suuruuden välillä on oletetunkaltainen yhteys. Yrityskokoluokista puolestaan suurten yhtiöiden osakkeet reagoivat yleisesti voimakkaammin luottoluokituksen muutokseen kuin pienten yhtiöiden osakekurssit.

Stock Repurchase Authorizations - Finnish Companies

The aim of this study is to examine the abnormal market reaction caused by share repurchase authorizations. We study this abnormal reaction from five different angles. First four concentrate on average abnormal returns while the fifth concentrates on cumulative abnormal return. Data consists of 508 share repurchase authorization from Finnish stock market. Event study methodology is used to examine the stock price reaction and regression analysis is used to find correlation between actual buybacks and abnormal returns. The empirical results show that markets do usually react positively to share repurchase authorizations. There are some differences depending which of the five angles the abnormal returns are being examined. Statistically we can confirm that some authorization give positive reaction while others do not. Also we didn’t find a statistically significant positive correlation between actual buybacks and abnormal returns.

Employee layoff announcements and shareholder wealth: empirical evidence from Finland 2008-2013

This thesis investigates the short-term stock price reaction to layoff announcements in Finland. It also studies whether the characteristics of the firm or the layoff announcement have an impact on the stock market reaction. Standard event study methodology was utilized to examine the stock price reactions to layoffs and to test the created hypotheses. The event pool consisted of 102 publicly disclosed layoff announcements that were announced during the time period from June 2008 to December 2013. The empirical results show that the stock market reaction is strongly positive in the pre-event period of -10 to -1 with CAAR of 2,69%. The reaction is however slightly negative on the event date with AAR of -0,57%. Based on the results the conclusion is that either the managers are timing the markets or the layoffs are seen as efficiency improving acts and the market becomes aware of such actions pre-event. Additionally different characteristic hypotheses are tested to find out whether they would explain the reaction. The characteristics are: the reason stated by the management, business cycle, industry group, prior performance, leverage-ratio, the size of the company, the size of the layoff and the duration of the layoff.

The information content of REIT credit rating actions and transparency

We examine the short-run and long-run price reaction of equity REIT shares following credit rating actions, testing the transparency of the REIT structure. Generally, the economic effect on the stock price is subdued for both upgrades and downgrades compared to prior literature examining the broader U.S. equity market. An examination of trading volume revealed a significant increase in trading in reaction to downgrade credit rating changes, with a more subdued response to upgrades. The findings support the notion that REITs are more publicly forthcoming about the expectation of positive news in comparison to negative news.

Essays on economic regulation

It is known that stock prices of public listed regulated companies react to price revisions by the regulator, and that the information conveyed by this price reaction might be used by the regulator on the contract design. This paper builds on Laffont and Tirole's (1986) regulation model with observable costs to better understand the effects the inclusion of the stock market can have on the regulator-regulated firm relationship. Our numerical simulations show that the inclusion of the market induce more powerful incentive schemes, with higher cost-reducing efforts, smaller informational rent by the firms and higher overall social welfare. In particular, we find that when the regulator is committed, the presence of short-term investors can make the first-best contract feasible, and that in the non-commitment case the market affects the firm's strategy by making it reveal more information about its cost than it normally would.

How do investors respond to share buyback programs? : evidence from Brazil during 2008 crisis

This paper provides empirical evidence of how effective share repurchase programs were as instruments to signal low prices during 2008 crisis in Brazil. Although we found that stock prices did not respond to buyback programs in the period 2006 to 2012 (1.65% cumulative abnormal returns after 5 days), the average stock price reaction in 2008 (2.93%) is higher and different with statistical significance. Furthermore, we found that the share price reaction from companies with market capitalization below R$10 billion is higher than the one from larger companies. In addition, we found that the response to the buyback programs is positively correlated (i) to the company’s purchasing activity after the announcement, (ii) to the maximum amount of shares announced which can be bought and (iii) to the quantity actually bought during the program. This research is unique in providing empirical evidence on the Brazilian case by analyzing 377 programs announced during that period. The research also confirms that the stock reaction is not influenced by the company's purchasing activity in prior announcements.

Il conflitto fra trasparenza sui mercati finanziari ed esigenza di riservatezza della società

The thesis main topic is the conflict between disclosure in financial markets and the need for confidentiality of the firm. After a recognition of the major dynamics of information production and dissemination in the stock market, the analysis moves to the interactions between the information that a firm is tipically interested in keeping confidential, such as trade secrets or the data usually covered by patent protection, and the countervailing demand for disclosure arising from finacial markets. The analysis demonstrates that despite the seeming divergence between informational contents tipically disclosed to investors and information usually covered by intellectual property protection, the overlapping areas are nonetheless wide and the conflict between transparency in financial markets and the firm’s need for confidentiality arises frequently and sistematically. Indeed, the company’s disclosure policy is based on a continuous trade-off between the costs and the benefits related to the public dissemination of information. Such costs are mainly represented by the competitive harm caused by competitors’ access to sensitive data, while the benefits mainly refer to the lower cost of capital that the firm obtains as a consequence of more disclosure. Secrecy shields the value of costly produced information against third parties’ free riding and constitutes therefore a means to protect the firm’s incentives toward the production of new information and especially toward technological and business innovation. Excessively demanding standards of transparency in financial markets might hinder such set of incentives and thus jeopardize the dynamics of innovation production. Within Italian securities regulation, there are two sets of rules mostly relevant with respect to such an issue: the first one is the rule that mandates issuers to promptly disclose all price-sensitive information to the market on an ongoing basis; the second one is the duty to disclose in the prospectus all the information “necessary to enable investors to make an informed assessment” of the issuers’ financial and economic perspectives. Both rules impose high disclosure standards and have potentially unlimited scope. Yet, they have safe harbours aimed at protecting the issuer need for confidentiality. Despite the structural incompatibility between public dissemination of information and the firm’s need to keep certain data confidential, there are certain ways to convey information to the market while preserving at the same time the firm’s need for confidentality. Such means are insider trading and selective disclosure: both are based on mechanics whereby the process of price reaction to the new information takes place without any corresponding activity of public release of data. Therefore, they offer a solution to the conflict between disclosure and the need for confidentiality that enhances market efficiency and preserves at the same time the private set of incentives toward innovation.

Corporate dividencs and seasoned equity issues: an empirical investigation

This paper investigates whether managers rely on dividends to obtain a higher price in a stock offering and whether the stock price reaction to dividend and offering announcements justifies such a coordination. The evidence does not support either conjecture. Issuing firms are not more likely to pay or increase dividends than nonissuing forms. Moreover, there is little evidence that firms time stock offering announcements right after dividend declarations to befefit from the attendant information disclosure. The analysis of dividend and stock offering announcement effects suggests few if any benefits from linking divbidend and stock offering announcements.

A note on execution costs for stock index futures: Information versus liquidity effects

This paper examines execution costs and the impact of trade size for stock index futures using price-volume transaction data from the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. Consistent with Subrahmanyam [Rev. Financ. Stud. 4 (1991) 11] we find that effective half spreads in the stock index futures market are small compared to stock markets, and that trades in stock index futures have only a small permanent price impact. This result is important as it helps to better understand the success of equity index products such as index futures and Exchange Traded Funds. We also find that there is no asymmetry in the post-trade price reaction between purchases and sales for stock index futures across various trade sizes. This result is consistent with the conjecture in Chan and Lakonishok [J. Financ. Econ. 33 (1993) 173] that the asymmetry surrounding block trades in stock markets is due to the high cost of short selling and the general reluctance of traders to short sell on stock markets. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Performance of European Acquisitions

This study looks at the impact of the recent financial crisis on the short-term performance of European acquisitions. We use institutional theory and transaction cost economic theory to study whether bidders derive lower or higher returns from acquisitions announced after 2008. We investigate shareholders’ stock price reaction to 2245 deals which occurred during 2004–12 across 22 European Union countries. Our results from both univariate and multivariate analysis show that the deals announced in the post-crisis period, corresponding to the period of economic recession, generate higher returns to shareholders as compared to acquisitions announced in the pre-crisis period. We also test the relevance of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), that is, the Eurozone, to this value accrual during the recessionary period. We observe that non-EMU transactions obtain significantly higher gains vis-à-vis EMU transactions in the post-crisis years. Overall, announcement returns of European acquisitions have been affected by the financial crisis and the global recession; and companies that target countries with different currency regimes are likely to generate better returns from their acquisitions.

Information Content of Bank Credit Rating Changes: Evidence from Europe

This thesis examines the short-term impact of credit rating announcements on daily stock returns of 41 European banks indexed in STOXX Europe 600 Banks. The time period of this study is 2002–2015 and the ratings represent long-term issuer ratings provided by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. Bank ratings are significant for a bank’s operation costs so it is interesting to investigate how investors react to changes in creditworthiness. The study objective is achieved by conducting an event study. The event study is extended with a cross-sectional linear regression to investigate other potential determinants surrounding rating changes. The research hypotheses and the motivation for additional tests are derived from prior research. The main hypotheses are formed to explore whether rating changes have an effect on stock returns, when this possible reaction occurs and whether it is asymmetric between upgrades and downgrades. The findings provide evidence that rating announcements have an impact on stock returns in the context of European banks. The results also support the existence of an asymmetry in capital market reaction to rating upgrades and downgrades. The rating downgrades are associated with statistically significant negative abnormal returns on the event day although the reaction is rather modest. No statistically significant reaction is found associated with the rating upgrades on the event day. These results hold true with both rating changes and rating watches. No anticipation is observed in the case of rating changes but there is a statistically significant cumulative negative (positive) price reaction occurring before the event day for negative (positive) watch announcements. The regression provides evidence that the stock price reaction is stronger for rating downgrades occurring within below investment grade class compared with investment grade class. This is intuitive as investors are more concerned about their investments in lower-rated companies. Besides, the price reaction of larger banks is more mitigated compared with smaller banks in the case of rating downgrades. The reason for this may be that larger banks are usually more widely followed by the public. However, the study results may also provide evidence of the existence of the so-called “too big to fail” subsidy that dampens the negative returns of larger banks.