The EU ban on uncovered sovereign credit default swaps: assessing impacts on liquidity, volatility and price discovery

This article addresses the effects of the prohibition against naked CDS buying implemented by the European Union in November 2012. Three aspects of market quality are analyzed: liquidity, volatility, and price informativeness. Overall, our results suggest that the ban produced negative effects on liquidity and price informativeness. First, we find that in territories within the scope of the EU regulation, the bid–ask spreads on sovereign CDS contracts rose after the ban, but fell for countries outside its bounds. Open interest declined for both groups of CDS reference entities in our sample, but significantly more in the constraint group. Price delay increased more prominently for countries affected by the ban, whereas price precision decreased for these countries while increasing for CDSs written on other sovereign reference entities. Most notably, our findings indicate that hese negative effects were more pronounced amid reference entities exhibiting lower credit risk. With respect to volatility, the evidence suggests that the ban was successful in stabilizing the CDS market in that volatility decreased, particularly for contracts written on riskier CDS entities.

Atraso no ajuste de preços das ações de baixa liquidez no mercado brasileiro: autocorrelações cruzadas e previsibilidade dos retornos das ações

Esta dissertação investigou, no mercado brasileiro, se o atraso no ajuste de preços das ações de baixa liquidez gera previsibilidade do retorno dessas ações quando comparadas às mais líquidas. O interesse estava em confrontar os resultados com os existentes na literatura internacional que apresentavam esse efeito. Para tanto, utilizamos a metodologia proposta no artigo “Trading volume and cross-autocorrelations in stock returns”, de Chordia e Swaminathan (2000), onde foi analisada a Bolsa de Valores de Nova York (NYSE). Verificamos que, na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (BOVESPA), uma vez controlados pelo tamanho das empresas, os retornos, sejam diários ou semanais, de portfólios com maior liquidez antecipam os retornos dos portfólios de menor liquidez, mais explicitamente nos quartis com pequenas e médias empresas. Os efeitos de não sincronia nas negociações e as autocorrelações próprias não são suficientes para explicar os padrões de antecipação-defasagem observados nos retornos das ações, já que esses são mais significativamente influenciados pelo volume negociado. As diferenças na velocidade da incorporação de novas informações aos preços ocorrem porque as ações menos líquidas parecem responder mais lentamente a informações de mercado, pelo menos nos portfólios de empresas de menor tamanho. Dessa maneira, podemos afirmar que no Brasil, assim como nos Estados Unidos, a baixa liquidez induz um atraso no ajuste de preços das ações de pequenas e médias empresas capaz de gerar previsibilidade dos retornos dessas ações, sugerindo alguma ineficiência do mercado. Os resultados são interessantes, já que indicam que, tanto no mercado nacional quanto nos de países desenvolvidos, os volumes negociados possuem um papel significativo na velocidade em que os preços se ajustam, jogando uma luz sobre como eles podem se tornar mais eficientes.

Letter to Isabel from Phil [Phil Ingram Price]

Letter to Isabel from Phil [Phil Ingram Price] in which he expresses a desire to divide the estate with as little delay as possible. He has divided the books into 4 lots, but he asks if Isabel has some of the books as they are missing, March 28, 1900.

Hyperglycemia can delay left ventricular dysfunction but not autonomic damage after myocardial infarction in rodents

Background: Although clinical diabetes mellitus is obviously a high risk factor for myocardial infarction (MI), in experimental studies disagreement exists about the sensitivity to ischemic injury of an infarcted myocardium. Recently, our group demonstrated that diabetic animals presented better cardiac function recovery and cellular resistance to ischemic injury than nondiabetics. In the present study, we evaluated the chronic effects of MI on left ventricular (LV) and autonomic functions in streptozotocin (STZ) diabetic rats. Methods: Male Wistar rats were divided into 4 groups: control (C, n = 15), diabetes (D, n = 16), MI (I, n = 21), and diabetes + MI (DI, n = 30). MI was induced 15 days after diabetes (STZ) induction. Ninety days after MI, LV and autonomic functions were evaluated (8 animals each group). Left ventricular homogenates were analyzed by Western blotting to evaluate the expression of calcium handling proteins. Results: MI area was similar in infarcted groups (similar to 43%). Ejection fraction and + dP/dt were reduced in I compared with DI. End-diastolic pressure was additionally increased in I compared with DI. Compared with DI, I had increased Na(+)-Ca(2+) exchange and phospholamban expression (164%) and decreased phosphorylated phospholamban at serine(16) (65%) and threonine(17) (70%) expression. Nevertheless, diabetic groups had greater autonomic dysfunction, observed by baroreflex sensitivity and pulse interval variability reductions. Consequently, the mortality rate was increased in DI compared with I, D, and C groups. Conclusions: LV dysfunction in diabetic animals was attenuated after 90 days of myocardial infarction and was associated with a better profile of calcium handling proteins. However, this positive adaptation was not able to reduce the mortality rate of DI animals, suggesting that autonomic dysfunction is associated with increased mortality in this group. Therefore, it is possible that the better cardiac function has been transitory, and the autonomic dysfunction, more prominent in diabetic group, may lead, in the future, to the cardiovascular damage.

An Extension of the Invariance Principle for a Class of Differential Equations with Finite Delay

An extension of the uniform invariance principle for ordinary differential equations with finite delay is developed. The uniform invariance principle allows the derivative of the auxiliary scalar function V to be positive in some bounded sets of the state space while the classical invariance principle assumes that. V <= 0. As a consequence, the uniform invariance principle can deal with a larger class of problems. The main difficulty to prove an invariance principle for functional differential equations is the fact that flows are defined on an infinite dimensional space and, in such spaces, bounded solutions may not be precompact. This difficulty is overcome by imposing the vector field taking bounded sets into bounded sets.

EXISTENCE RESULTS FOR NEUTRAL INTEGRO-DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH UNBOUNDED DELAY

In this paper we discuss the existence of mild, strict and classical solutions for a class of abstract integro-differential equations in Banach spaces. Some applications to ordinary and partial integro-differential equations are considered.

Existence Results for Abstract Partial Neutral Integro-differential Equation with Unbounded Delay

In this paper we study the existence and regularity of mild solutions for a class of abstract partial neutral integro-differential equations with unbounded delay.

In utero protein restriction causes growth delay and alters sperm parameters in adult male rats

Background: Recent studies have supported the concept of ""fetal programming"" which suggests that during the intrauterine development the fetus may be programmed to develop diseases in adulthood. The possible effects of in utero protein restriction on sexual development of rat male offspring were evaluated in the present study. Methods: Pregnant Wistar rats were divided into two experimental groups: one group treated with standard chow (SC, n = 8, 17% protein) and the other group treated with hypoproteic chow (HC, n = 10, 6% protein) throughout gestation. After gestation the two experimental groups received standard chow. To evaluate the possible late reproductive effects of in utero protein restriction, the male offspring of both groups were assessed at different phases of sexual development: prepubertal (30 days old); peripubertal (60 days old); adult (90 days old). Student's t test and Mann-Whitney test were utilized. Differences were considered significant when p < 0.05. Results: We found that in utero protein restriction reduced the body weight of male pups on the first postnatal day and during the different sexual development phases (prepubertal, peripubertal and adult). During adulthood, Sertoli cell number, sperm motility and sperm counts in the testis and epididymal cauda were also reduced in HC. Furthermore, the numbers of sperm presenting morphological abnormalities and cytoplasmic drop retention were higher in HC. Conclusions: In conclusion, in utero protein restriction, under these experimental conditions, causes growth delay and alters male reproductive-system programming in rats, suggesting impairment of sperm quality in adulthood.

E-contracting with price configuration for Web services and QoS

The large amount of information in electronic contracts hampers their establishment due to high complexity. An approach inspired in Software Product Line (PL) and based on feature modelling was proposed to make this process more systematic through information reuse and structuring. By assessing the feature-based approach in relation to a proposed set of requirements, it was showed that the approach does not allow the price of services and of Quality of Services (QoS) attributes to be considered in the negotiation and included in the electronic contract. Thus, this paper also presents an extension of such approach in which prices and price types associated to Web services and QoS levels are applied. An extended toolkit prototype is also presented as well as an experiment example of the proposed approach.

Synthesis of PID controllers for a class of time delay systems

In this paper we use the Hermite-Biehler theorem to establish results on the design of proportional plus integral plus derivative (PID) controllers for a class of time delay systems. Using the property of interlacing at high frequencies of the class of systems considered and linear programming we obtain the set of all stabilizing PID controllers. As far as we know, previous results on the synthesis of PID controllers rely on the solution of transcendental equations. This paper also extends previous results on the synthesis of proportional controllers for a class of delay systems Of retarded type to a larger class of delay systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of price and enforcement in water allocation: Insights from Game Theory

As many countries are moving toward water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation, and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The problem of nonavailability of water to tailenders on an irrigation system in developing countries, due to unlicensed upstream diversions is well documented. The reliability of access or equivalently the uncertainty associated with water availability at their diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the application by users for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to monitor and enforce licensed use. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use and parameters that define the users and the agency`s economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of ""Law and Economics,`` with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil, is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed. This paper is an initial attempt to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing such situations but with a focus on the reservoir-canal system water rights enforcement.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Multiple synchronous states in static delay-free mutually connected PLL networks

In many engineering applications, the time coordination of geographically separated events is of fundamental importance, as in digital telecommunications and integrated digital circuits. Mutually connected (MC) networks are very good candidates for some new types of application, such as wireless sensor networks. This paper presents a study on the behavior of MC networks of digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs). Analytical results are derived showing that, even for static networks without delays, different synchronous states may exist for the network. An upper bound for the number of such states is also presented. Numerical simulations are used to show the following results: (i) the synchronization precision in MC DPLLs networks; (ii) the existence of synchronous states for the network does not guarantee its achievement and (iii) different synchronous states may be achieved for different initial conditions. These results are important in the neural computation context. as in this case, each synchronous state may be associated to a different analog memory information. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phenolic composition of South American red wines classified according to their antioxidant activity, retail price and sensory quality

In this study, 73 South American red wines (Vitis vinifera) from 5 varietals were classified based on sensory quality, retail price and antioxidant activity and characterised in relation to their phenolic composition. ORAC and DPPH assays were assessed to determine the antioxidant activity, and sensory analysis was conducted by seven professional tasters using the Wine Spirits Education Trust`s structured scales. The use of multivariate statistical techniques allowed the identification of wines with the best combination of sensory characteristics, price and antioxidant activity. The most favourable varieties were Malbec, Cabernet Sauvignon, and Syrah produced in Chile and Argentina. Conversely, Pinot Noir wines displayed the lowest sensory characteristics and antioxidant activity. These results suggest that the volatile compounds may be the main substances responsible for differentiating red wines on the basis of sensory evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.