Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

How Do Aggregate Fluctuations Depend on the Network Structure of the Economy?

[spa] En este artículo, analizamos la volatilidad agregada de una economía estilizada donde los agentes estann conectados en redes. Si hay relaciones estratégicas entre las acciones de los agentes, choques idiosincráticos pueden generar fluctuaciones agregadas. Demonstramos que la volatilidad agregada depende de la estructura de redes de la economía de dos maneras. Por un lado, si hay más conexiones en la economía en su conjunto, la volatilidad agregada es más baja. Por otro lado, si las conexiones están más concentradas, la volatilidad agregada es más alta. Presentamos una aplicación de nuestras predicciones teóricas que utiliza datos de EEUU de conexiones intrasectoriales y de diversificación de las empresas.

How Do Aggregate Fluctuations Depend on the Network Structure of the Economy?

[spa] En este artículo, analizamos la volatilidad agregada de una economía estilizada donde los agentes estann conectados en redes. Si hay relaciones estratégicas entre las acciones de los agentes, choques idiosincráticos pueden generar fluctuaciones agregadas. Demonstramos que la volatilidad agregada depende de la estructura de redes de la economía de dos maneras. Por un lado, si hay más conexiones en la economía en su conjunto, la volatilidad agregada es más baja. Por otro lado, si las conexiones están más concentradas, la volatilidad agregada es más alta. Presentamos una aplicación de nuestras predicciones teóricas que utiliza datos de EEUU de conexiones intrasectoriales y de diversificación de las empresas.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Avaliação econômica da elaboração de banana-passa proveniente de cultivo orgânico e convencional

This work reports an economic evaluation of the dried banana production from an agroindustry located in Guaraqueçaba - PR State, Brazil. The conventional and the organic banana processings were evaluated by comparing the economic viability pointers. The dried organic banana is exported to the Europe and the dried conventional banana is commercialized in the region of Curitiba - PR. Both processings presented positive economic viability, however the dried organic banana presented better indices (TIR 94%, VPL R$ 486,009.39 and benefit cost relation of 2.11) than the conventional dried banana (TIR 14%, VPL R$ 34,668.00 and benefit cost relation of 1.17). The dried organic banana presented a cost of production of R$ 3.64, being 50.1% relative to the expense with insumos and 27% with labour. The dried conventional banana presented a cost of R$ 3.21, being 45.3% for insumos and 31.2% for labour.

Desempenho produtivo, características de carcaça e avaliação econômica de bovinos cruzados, castrados e não-castrados, terminados em pastagens de Brachiaria decumbens

Avaliou-se o efeito da castração sobre o desempenho produtivo e sobre as características de carcaça e realizou-se a avaliação econômica de bovinos terminados em pastagens de Brachiaria decumbens. Foram utilizados oito novilhos Canchim-Nelore com 14 meses de idade, sendo quatro animais castrados e quatro não-castrados, com média de peso corporal de 273,2kg. O delineamento foi inteiramente ao acaso com quatro repetições por tratamento. Os animais receberam, diariamente, 0,7% do PC de suplemento proteíco-energético e foram abatidos aos 26 meses de idade. O peso de abate e o ganho médio diário (GMD) diferiram entre castrados e não-castrados, com médias de 441,0 e 482,2kg e 0,6 e 0,7kg/dia, respectivamente. Não houve efeito da castração sobre as características avaliadas, com exceção do peso de abate, do peso da carcaça quente, 252,3 versus 229,9kg, da cor da carne, 3,25 versus 4,50 pontos e da espessura da gordura subcutânea, 0,6 versus 1,4mm, respectivamente, para não-castrados e castrados. A lucratividade por animal e por hectare foi de 14,5 e 15,8% para não-castrados e 4,5 e 5,8% para castrados, respectivamente. Sugere-se a utilização de bovinos não-castrados suplementados em pastagens de Brachiaria decumbens.

Sustentabilidade financeira e econômica do gasto público em saúde no nível municipal: reflexões a partir de dados de municípios mato-grossenses

O financiamento do SUS é regido pelo modelo de federalismo fiscal, pelas regras de partilha do Orçamento da Seguridade Social (OSS), por normas do Ministério da Saúde, e pela Emenda Constitucional nº. 29 (EC-29), que vincula à saúde recursos dos entes federados brasileiros. Discute-se aqui a sustentabilidade do gasto público com saúde no nível municipal. Foram estudados 21 municípios, utilizando-se dados dos balanços municipais. De 1996 a 2006 as receitas correntes gerais per capita subiram 280% acima da inflação acumulada e do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) nacional, variando conforme o porte do município, o qual também definiu a composição dos orçamentos municipais. Já o orçamento que conforma a base da EC-29 elevou-se bem menos (178%), impondo limitações ao incremento da contrapartida municipal em saúde. Acredita-se que o observado nesses municípios se reproduza em milhares de municípios brasileiros e comprometa a capacidade de investimento municipal em saúde, principalmente a partir de 2008. A situação ainda pode se agravar tendo em vista a extinção da Contribuição Provisória sobre a Movimentação ou Transmissão de Valores e de Créditos e Direitos de Natureza Financeira (CPMF), a tramitação dos Projetos de Lei nº. 306/08 e nº. 233/08, e a recessão mundial, a partir da crise do sistema financeiro norte-americano.

Avaliação ambiental e econômica da produção de madeira da espécie nativa em dois municípios na Amazônia Brasileira

Na Amazônia brasileira, a exploração das florestas tem se dado com imensos danos ambientais e desperdício de recursos. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar a cadeia produtiva da madeira de espécie nativa em dois municípios do estado do Pará, Paragominas e Novo Progresso, mediante pesquisa bibliográfica e documental. Os dois municípios são polos madeireiros expressivos para realização do trabalho de campo: um de exploração mais antiga e outro mais recente. Foram entrevistados representantes de empresas de diferentes tamanhos com enfoque na cadeia produtiva da madeira (extração, processamento primário e beneficiamento). Nos dois municípios de forma geral, o parque industrial encontrado é antigo e com tecnologia defasada. Conclui-se que uma política de agregação de valor aos recursos naturais deveria incluir investimentos relevantes em capacitação, treinamento e tecnologia. A cadeia de base florestal pode desempenhar um papel importante na manutenção da floresta em pé, na geração de empregos e nas exportações da região

Análise técnica e econômica de prestadores de serviços na colheita florestal

The objective of this Study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results In the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.