Bayesian estimation of the spatial Durbin error model with an application to voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election

The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the previously unutilized spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from an empirical perspective. Formal Bayesian model comparison techniques are employed to compare the normal linear model, the spatially lagged X model (SLX), the spatial Durbin model, and the spatial Durbin error model. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin error model as the appropriate empirical model.

State Political Action Committee Financing and the 2008 Presidential Election: A Detailed Look at Mitt Romney and the Commonwealth PACs

This study looks at the historical context in which PACs developed, as well as the current legal environment in which they operate. It will also briefly discuss the legal and procedural challenges that candidates face and the ways in which PACs alleviate some of these pressures in ways that presidential committees cannot. An understanding of the strategic dilemmas which cause candidates to seek extraneous structures through which to establish campaign networks is essential to extrapolating the potential future of campaign finance strategy. Furthermore, this study provides an in-depth analysis of the state Commonwealth PACs both in terms of fundraising and spending, and discusses the central issues this state PAC strategy raises with respect to campaign finance law. The study will conclude with a look into the future of campaign financing and the role these state-level PACs may play if current rules are not revised.

Some serious considerations on the present state of parties, with regard to the presidential election : with the author's own case fairly stated, and submitted to all candid and compassionate men /

Mode of access: Internet.

An appeal to the voluntary citizens of the United States, from all nations, on the exercise of their elective franchise, at the approaching presidential election /

Also reprinted, with a few minor changes, for campaign of 1844.

The politician's manual : containing returns of elections in the United States, particularly the presidential election of 1832, with election laws, and other useful information /

Checklist Amer. imprints

The sons of the sires; a history of the rise, progress, and destiny of the American party, and its probable influence on the next presidential election. To which is added a review of the letter of the Hon. Henry A. Wise, against the Know-nothings.

Mode of access: Internet.

Racism, nationalism and right-wing extremism online: The Austrian Presidential Election 2016 on Facebook

Thee 2016 Austrian presidential election saw a run-o between the Green party candidate Alexander Van der Bellen and the Freedom Party of Austria’s (FPÖ) far-right candidate Norbert Hofer. This paper asks: How did voters of Hofer express their support on Facebook? It presents the results of a qualitative ideology analysis of 6755 comments about the presidential election posted on the Facebook pages of FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache and FPÖ candidate Hofer. The results reveal insights into the contemporary political role of the online leadership ideology, online nationalism, new racism online, the friend/enemy-scheme online, and online militancy. Right-wing extremism 2.0 is a complex problem that stands in the context of contemporary crises and demagoguery.

Brazil’s 2014 presidential elections: the interconnection between election news and stock market behavior

This study researches whether there has been abnormal stock market behaviour in Brazil as a consequence of election news (observed via opinion polls), regarding the last Brazilian presidential election, held in October 2014. Via applying event study methodology, the research on the Ibovespa and Petrobras suggests that events in which Rousseff was gaining in share have been subject to negative abnormal returns, and events where Rousseff was loosing in share have led to positive abnormal returns. Moreover, volatility has been significantly elevated during the election period and volume has been found to have slightly increased.

Kenya's 2007 election crisis

On 27 December 2007, the Republic of Kenya held its tenth general election since independence. The ballot-related proceedings went as planned up to and including the vote count, providing grounds for optimism for a largely peaceful transfer of power. However, after the official declaration by the Electoral Commission of Kenya late in the afternoon of 30 December that the presidential election had been won by the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki (from Central Province and a Kikuyu), Kenya entered into a period of deep crisis. How might we best understand this great turbulence, which was unprecedented in post-independence Kenya? Perhaps the answer lies in the sudden defeat of the opposition's presidential candidate, Raila Odinga from Nyanza Province and a Luo, who had been widely expected to win. With the post-election upheaval as the context, and looking at the situation from the standpoint of political history, this paper will offer an analysis of trends in Kenya's politics since 2002.