Do preference reversals generalise? Results on ambiguity and loss aversion

Preference reversals are frequently observed in the lab, but almost all designs use completely transparent prospects, which are rarely features of decision making elsewhere. This raises questions of external validity. We test the robustness of the phenomenon to gambles that incorporate realistic ambiguity in both payoffs and probabilities. In addition, we test a recent explanation of preference reversals by loss aversion, which would also restrict the incidence of reversals outside the lab. According to this account, reversals occur largely because the valuation task endows subject with a gamble, activating loss aversion. This contrasts with the choice task, where the reference point is pre-experiment wealth. We test this explanation by holding the reference point constant. Our evidence suggests that reversals are only slightly diminished with ambiguity. We find no evidence supporting their explanation by loss aversion.

Preference reversals for ambiguity aversion

This paper finds preference reversals in measurements of ambiguity aversion, even if psychological and informational circumstances are kept constant. The reversals are of a fundamentally different nature than the reversals found before because they cannot be explained by context-dependent weightings of attributes. We offer an explanation based on Sugden's random-reference theory, with different elicitation methods generating different random reference points. Then measurements of ambiguity aversion that use willingness to pay are confounded by loss aversion and hence overestimate ambiguity aversion.

The impact of the measurement unit of unit price on consumer preference and choice

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Salience theory of choice under risk

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By endogenizing decision weights as a function of payoffs, our model provides a novel and unified account of many empirical phenomena, including frequent risk-seeking behavior, invariance failures such as the Allais paradox, and preference reversals. It also yields new predictions, including some that distinguish it from Prospect Theory, which we test.

Eliciting preferences for collectively financed health programmes : the "willingness to assign" approach

Improving public involvement in health system decision making stands as a primary goal in health systems reform. However, still limited evidence is found on how best to elicit preferences for health care programs. This paper examines a contingent choice technique to elicit preferences among health programs so called, willingness to assign (WTAS): Moreover, we elicited contingents rankings as well as the willingness to pay extra taxes for comparative purposes. We argue that WTAS reveals relative ( monetary-based) values of a set of competing public programmes under a hypothetical healthcare budget assessment. Experimental evidence is reported from a delibertive empirical study valuing ten health programmes in the context of the Catalan Health Services. Evidence from a our experimental study reveals that perferences are internally more consistent and slightly less affected by "preference reversals" as compared to values revealed from the willingness to pay (WTP) extra taxes approach. Consistent with prior studies, we find that the deliberative approach helped to avoid possible misunderstandings. Interestingly, although programmes promoting health received the higher relative valuation, those promoting other health benefits also ranked highly

Eliciting preferences for collectively financed health programmes : the "willingness to assign" approach

Improving public involvement in health system decision making stands as a primary goal in health systems reform. However, still limited evidence is found on how best to elicit preferences for health care programs. This paper examines a contingent choice technique to elicit preferences among health programs so called, willingness to assign (WTAS): Moreover, we elicited contingents rankings as well as the willingness to pay extra taxes for comparative purposes. We argue that WTAS reveals relative ( monetary-based) values of a set of competing public programmes under a hypothetical healthcare budget assessment. Experimental evidence is reported from a delibertive empirical study valuing ten health programmes in the context of the Catalan Health Services. Evidence from a our experimental study reveals that perferences are internally more consistent and slightly less affected by "preference reversals" as compared to values revealed from the willingness to pay (WTP) extra taxes approach. Consistent with prior studies, we find that the deliberative approach helped to avoid possible misunderstandings. Interestingly, although programmes promoting health received the higher relative valuation, those promoting other health benefits also ranked highly

Cognition in Seemingly Riskless Choices and Judgments.

We instillate rational cognition and learning in seemingly riskless choices and judgments. Preferences and possibilities are given in a stochastic sense and based on revisable expectations. the theory predicts experimental preference reversals and passes a sharp econometric test of the status quo bias drawn from a field study.

Separating real incentives and accountability

In experimental investigations of the effect of real incentives, accountability—the implicit or explicit expectation of a decision maker that she may have to justify her decisions in front of somebody else—is often confounded with the incentives themselves. This confounding of accountability with incentives makes causal attributions of any effects found problematic. We separate accountability and incentives, and find different effects. Accountability is found to reduce preference reversals between frames, for which incentives have no effect. Incentives on the other hand are found to reduce risk seeking for losses, where accountability has no effect. In a choice task between simple and compound events, accountability increases the preference for the simple event, while incentives have a weaker effect going in the opposite direction. It is thus shown that the confounding of accountability and incentives is relevant for studies on the effect of the latter, and that existing conclusions on the effect of incentives need to be reconsidered in light of this issue.

Escolha social e valores irredutíveis: uma aproximação da economia política e a ideologia

No presente paper, nós provamos que qualquer função da escolha social satisfaz o princípio da independência das alternativas irrelevantes (IIA) de Arrow se o comportamento individual é menu-dependente. Portanto, o 'Teorema da Possibilidade Geral' de Arrow não é válido quando as preferências individuais são determinadas por valores irredutíveis. Nesse contexto, qualquer instrumento de agregação que satisfaça os princípios não-ditatoriais e paretianos de unanimidade (maioria simples, por exemplo) também faz IIA. Esse poderia ser um resultado importante para a teoria da escolha social, enquanto um comportamento individual determinado por valores irredutíveis (interesse próprio, ideologia, Ética e normas sociais, por exemplo) podendo validar democracia representativa. A importância relativa de tais valores e da possibilidade de reversão da preferência determina a dinâmica da escolha social, de acordo com os princípios democráticos.

Preference Mapping Of Dulce De Leche Commercialized In Brazilian Markets.

Dulce de leche samples available in the Brazilian market were submitted to sensory profiling by quantitative descriptive analysis and acceptance test, as well sensory evaluation using the just-about-right scale and purchase intent. External preference mapping and the ideal sensory characteristics of dulce de leche were determined. The results were also evaluated by principal component analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, partial least squares regression, artificial neural networks, and logistic regression. Overall, significant product acceptance was related to intermediate scores of the sensory attributes in the descriptive test, and this trend was observed even after consumer segmentation. The results obtained by sensometric techniques showed that optimizing an ideal dulce de leche from the sensory standpoint is a multidimensional process, with necessary adjustments on the appearance, aroma, taste, and texture attributes of the product for better consumer acceptance and purchase. The optimum dulce de leche was characterized by high scores for the attributes sweet taste, caramel taste, brightness, color, and caramel aroma in accordance with the preference mapping findings. In industrial terms, this means changing the parameters used in the thermal treatment and quantitative changes in the ingredients used in formulations.

Leg preference and interlateral asymmetry of balance stability in soccer players

To examine the effect of long lasting practice on pedal behavior in sport, we compared experienced adult soccer players and nonsoccer players on leg preference in motor tasks requiring general mobilization, soccer related mobilization, and body balance stabilization. We also evaluated performance asymmetry between the right and left legs in static and dynamic unipedal body balance based on center of pressure displacement, and correlated that with kg preference in balance stabilization tasks. Results revealed (a) a distinct leg preference between mobilization and stabilization tasks, which were significantly different between Mayers and nonplayers, (b) similar balance stability between the right and left legs, (c) greater stability of experienced players compared with nonplayers in static and dynamic balance, and (d) absence of a significant kg preference correlation with interlateral balance asymmetry. These results suggest an effect of extensive soccer skill practice on establishing leg preference for specific mobilization tasks and overall balance control.

Leg preference and interlateral performance asymmetry in soccer player children

Strength of leg peference and interlateral asymmetry in kinematics of kicking a ball for power were assessed in 6- to 10-year-old right-footed soccer player children. Leg preference was evaluated separately for three task categories: balance stabilization, soccer related mobilization, and general mobilization. The results showed that while both categories of mobilization tasks were featured by a consistent preference for the right leg, in stabilization tasks we observed lower scores and greater interindividual variability of leg preference. No effect of age was detected on leg preference. Analysis of peak foot velocity revealed similar increment of performance of the right and left legs from the ages 6-8 to 10 years. This finding supports the notion of stable Magnitude of interlateral asymmetries of performance during motor development. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Dev Psychobiol 50: 799-806, 2008.

Amplification and diffusion of manual preference from lateralized practice in children

The effect of lateralized practice on manual preference was investigated in right-handed children. Probing tasks required reaching and grasping a pencil at distinct eccentricities in the right and left hemifields (simple), and its transportation and insertion into a small hole (complex). During practice, the children experienced manipulative tasks different from that used for probing, using the left hand only. Results showed that before practice the children used almost exclusively the right hand in the right hemifield and at the midline position. Following lateralized practice frequency of use of the left hand increased in most lateral positions. A more evident effect of lateralized practice on shift of manual preference was detected in the complex task. Implications for lateralization of behavior in a developmental timescale are discussed on the basis of the proposition of amplification and diffusion of manual preference from lateralized practice. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Dev Psychobiol 52: 723-730, 2010.

Vector within-host feeding preference mediates transmission of a heterogeneously distributed pathogen

2. We documented the within-host distribution of two vector species that differ in transmission efficiency, the leafhoppers Draeculacephala minerva and Graphocephala atropunctata, and which are free to move throughout entirely caged alfalfa plants. The more efficient vector D. minerva fed preferentially at the base of the plant near the soil surface, whereas the less efficient G. atropunctata preferred overwhelming the top of the plant. 3. Next we documented X. fastidiosa heterogeneity in mechanically inoculated plants. Infection rates were up to 50% higher and mean bacterial population densities were 100-fold higher near the plant base than at the top or in the taproot. 4. Finally, we estimated transmission efficiency of the two leafhoppers when they were confined at either the base or top of inoculated alfalfa plants. Both vectors were inefficient when confined at the top of infected plants and were 20-60% more efficient when confined at the plant base. 5. These results show that vector transmission efficiency is determined by the interaction between leafhopper within-plant feeding behaviour and pathogen within-plant distribution. Fine-scale vector and pathogen overlap is likely to be a requirement generally for efficient transmission of vector-borne pathogens.

Diet-dependent life history, feeding preference and thermal requirements of the predatory mite Neoseiulus baraki (Acari: Phytoseiidae)

Neoseiulus baraki Athias-Henriot (Acari: Phytoseiidae) has been reported from the Americas, Africa and Asia, often in association with Aceria guerreronis Keifer (Acari: Eriophyidae), one of the most important pests of coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) in diVerent parts of the world. That phytoseiid has been considered one of the most common predators associated with A. guerreronis in Brazil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feeding preference and the eVect of food items commonly present on coconut fruits and several temperature regimes on the life history of a Brazilian population of N. baraki. Completion of immature development was possible when N. baraki was fed A. guerreronis, Steneotarsonemus concavuscutum Lofego and Gondim Jr., and Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank). Fecundity was highest on T. putrescentiae (39.4 eggs), followed by A. guerreronis (24.8 eggs). In choice tests, irrespective of the food on which N. baraki was reared, a larger number of adults of this predator chose leaf discs containing A. guerreronis than discs containing other food items, demonstrating a preference of the former for the latter as food. Egg to adult thermal developmental time was calculated as 84.2 degree-days, above a threshold of 15.8 degrees C. This lower developmental threshold is higher than previously published for phytoseiid species from higher latitudes. Neoseiulus baraki was shown to have higher biotic potential at 30 degrees C (r(m) 0.29). The results suggest N. baraki to be a promising biological control agent of A. guerreronis, well adapted to survive and develop in areas with relatively high temperatures, where that pest prevails.