Meta-analysis and cross-validation of a hyperglycemic status predictor model based on salivary glucose

Poster presented at the First International Congress of CiiEM - From Basic Sciences To Clinical Research. Egas Moniz, Caparica, Portugal, 27-28 November 2015.

Simulator of the JET real-time disruption predictor

A disruption predictor based on support vector machines (SVM) has been developed to be used in JET. The training process uses thousands of discharges and, therefore, high performance computing has been necessary to obtain the models. To this respect, several models have been generated with data from different JET campaigns. In addition, various kernels (mainly linear and RBF) and parameters have been tested. The main objective of this work has been the implementation of the predictor model under real-time constraints. A “C-code” software application has been developed to simulate the real-time behavior of the predictor. The application reads the signals from the JET database and simulates the real-time data processing, in particular, the specific data hold method to be developed when reading data from the JET ATM real time network. The simulator is fully configurable by means of text files to select models, signal thresholds, sampling rates, etc. Results with data between campaigns C23and C28 will be shown.

The theory of margin as a predictor of success on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses

The National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN) is the examination that all graduates of nursing education programs must pass to attain the title of registered nurse. Currently the NCLEX-RN passing rate is at an all-time low (81%) for first-time test takers (NCSBN, 2004); amidst a nationwide shortage of registered nurses (Glabman, 2001). Because of the critical need to supply greater numbers of professional nurses, and the potential accreditation ramifications that low NCLEX-RN passing rates can have on schools of nursing and graduates, this research study tests the effectiveness of a predictor model. This model is based upon the theoretical framework of McClusky's (1959) theory of margin (ToM), with the hope that students found to be at-risk for NCLEX-RN failure can be identified and remediated prior to taking the actual licensure examination. To date no theory based predictor model has been identified that predicts success on the NCLEX-RN. ^ The model was tested using prerequisite course grades, nursing course grades and scores on standardized examinations for the 2003 associate degree nursing graduates at a urban community college (N = 235). Success was determined through the reporting of pass on the NCLEX-RN examination by the Florida Board of Nursing. Point biserial correlations tested model assumptions regarding variable relationships, while logistic regression was used to test the model's predictive power. ^ Correlations among variables were significant and the model accounted for 66% of variance in graduates' success on the NCLEX-RN with 98% prediction accuracy. Although certain prerequisite course grades and nursing course grades were found to be significant to NCLEX-RN success, the overall model was found to be most predictive at the conclusion of the academic program of study. The inclusion of the RN Assessment Examination, taken during the final semester of course work, was the most significant predictor of NCLEX-RN success. Success on the NCLEX-RN allows graduates to work as registered nurses, reflects positively on a school's academic performance record, and supports the appropriateness of the educational program's goals and objectives. The study's findings support potential other uses of McClusky's theory of margin as a predictor of program outcome in other venues of adult education. ^

Previsão multi-passos a frente do preço de energia elétrica de curto prazo no mercado brasileiro

A predição do preço da energia elétrica é uma questão importante para todos os participantes do mercado, para que decidam as estratégias mais adequadas e estabeleçam os contratos bilaterais que maximizem seus lucros e minimizem os seus riscos. O preço da energia tipicamente exibe sazonalidade, alta volatilidade e picos. Além disso, o preço da energia é influenciado por muitos fatores, tais como: demanda de energia, clima e preço de combustíveis. Este trabalho propõe uma nova abordagem híbrida para a predição de preços de energia no mercado de curto prazo. Tal abordagem combina os filtros autorregressivos integrados de médias móveis (ARIMA) e modelos de Redes Neurais (RNA) numa estrutura em cascata e utiliza variáveis explanatórias. Um processo em dois passos é aplicado. Na primeira etapa, as variáveis explanatórias são preditas. Na segunda etapa, os preços de energia são preditos usando os valores futuros das variáveis exploratórias. O modelo proposto considera uma predição de 12 passos (semanas) a frente e é aplicada ao mercado brasileiro, que possui características únicas de comportamento e adota o despacho centralizado baseado em custo. Os resultados mostram uma boa capacidade de predição de picos de preço e uma exatidão satisfatória de acordo com as medidas de erro e testes de perda de cauda quando comparado com técnicas tradicionais. Em caráter complementar, é proposto um modelo classificador composto de árvores de decisão e RNA, com objetivo de explicitar as regras de formação de preços e, em conjunto com o modelo preditor, atuar como uma ferramenta atrativa para mitigar os riscos da comercialização de energia.

Influence of obesity and cardiometabolic makers on lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity in adolescents: the healthy young cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity (Lp-PLA2) is a good marker of cardiovascular risk in adults. It is strongly associated with stroke and many others cardiovascular events. Despite this, the impact of obesity on this enzyme activity and its relation to biomarkers of cardiovascular disease in adolescents is not very well investigated. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the influence of obesity and cardiometabolic markers on Lp-PLA2 activity in adolescents. Results This cross-sectional study included 242 adolescents (10–19 years) of both gender. These subjects were classified in Healthy Weight (n = 77), Overweight (n = 82) and Obese (n = 83) groups. Lipid profile, glucose, insulin, HDL size, LDL(−) and anti-LDL(−) antibodies were analyzed. The Lp-PLA2 activity was determined by a colorimetric commercial kit. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and body composition were monitored. Food intake was evaluated using three 24-hour diet recalls. The Lp-PLA2 activity changed in function to high BMI, waist circumference and fat mass percentage. It was also positively associated with HOMA-IR, glucose, insulin and almost all variables of lipid profile. Furthermore, it was negatively related to Apo AI (β = −0.137; P = 0.038) and strongly positively associated with Apo B (β = 0.293; P < 0.001) and with Apo B/Apo AI ratio (β = 0.343; P < 0.001). The better predictor model for enzyme activity, on multivariate analysis, included Apo B/Apo AI (β = 0.327; P < 0.001), HDL size (β = −0.326; P < 0.001), WC (β = 0.171; P = 0.006) and glucose (β = 0.119; P = 0.038). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that changes in Apo B/Apo AI ratio were associated with a 73.5 times higher risk to elevated Lp-PLA2 activity. Conclusions Lp-PLA2 changes in function of obesity, and that it shows important associations with markers of cardiovascular risk, in particular with waist circumference, glucose, HDL size and Apo B/Apo AI ratio. These results suggest that Lp-PLA2 activity can be a cardiovascular biomarker in adolescence.

Occupational, personal and psychosocial resources for preventing persistent low back pain

The aim of this prospective cohort study was to identify modifiable protective factors of the progression of acute/subacute low back pain (LBP) to the persistent state at an early stage to reduce the socioeconomic burden of persistent LBP. Patients attending a health practitioner for acute/subacute LBP were assessed at baseline addressing occupational, personal and psychosocial factors, and followed up over 12 weeks. Pearson correlations were calculated between these baseline factors and the presence of nonpersistent LBP at 12-week follow-up. For those factors found to be significant, multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. The final 3-predictor model included job satisfaction, mental health and social support. The accuracy of the model was 72%, with 81% of nonpersistent and 60% of persistent LBP patients correctly identified. Further research is necessary to confirm the role of different types of social support regarding their prognostic influence on the development of persistent LBP.

Who is likely to develop persistent low back pain? A longitudinal analysis of prognostic occupational factors

OBJECTIVE: Occupational low back pain (LBP) is considered to be the most expensive form of work disability, with the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP exceeding the costs of acute and subacute LBP by far. This makes the early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent LBP essential, especially in working populations. The aim of the study was to evaluate both risk factors (for the development of persistent LBP) and protective factors (preventing the development of persistent LBP) in the same cohort. PARTICIPANTS: An inception cohort of 315 patients with acute to subacute or with recurrent LBP was recruited from 14 health practitioners (twelve general practitioners and two physiotherapists) across New Zealand. METHODS: Patients with persistent LBP at six-month follow-up were compared to patients with non-persistent LBP looking at occupational, psychological, biomedical and demographic/lifestyle predictors at baseline using multiple logistic regression analyses. All significant variables from the different domains were combined into a one predictor model. RESULTS: A final two-predictor model with an overall predictive value of 78% included social support at work (OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.45 to 0.99) and somatization (OR 1.08; 95%CI 1.01 to 1.15). CONCLUSIONS: Social support at work should be considered as a resource preventing the development of persistent LBP whereas somatization should be considered as a risk factor for the development of persistent LBP. Further studies are needed to determine if addressing these factors in workplace interventions for patients suffering from acute, subacute or recurrent LBP prevents subsequent development of persistent LBP.

Distribuição e uso de habitat por peixes recifais em um gradiente ambiental: estudo de caso em recifes areníticos

There are several abiotic factors reported in the literature as regulators of the distribution of fish species in marine environments. Among them stand out structural complexity of habitat, benthic composition, depth and distance from the coast are usually reported as positive influencers in the diversity of difentes species, including reef fish. These are dominant elements in reef systems and considered high ecological and socioeconomic importance. Understanding how the above factors influence the distribution and habitat use of reef fish communities are important for their management and conservation. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the influence of these variables on the community of reef fishes along an environmental gradient of depth and distance from shore base in sandstone reefs in the coast of state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. These variables are also used for creating a simple predictive model reef fish biomass for the environment studied. Data collection was performed through visual surveys in situ, and recorded environmental data (structural complexity of habitat, type of coverage of the substrate, benthic invertebrates) and ecological (wealth, abundance and reef fish size classes). As a complement, information on the diet were raised through literature and the biomass was estimated from the length-weight relationship of each species. Overall, the reefs showed a low coverage by corals and the Shallow reefs, Intermediate I and II dominated by algae and the Funds by algae and sponges. The complexity has increased along the gradient and positively influenced the species richness and abundance. Both attributes influenced in the structure of the reef fish community, increasing the richness, abundance and biomass of fish as well as differentiating the trophic structure of the community along the depth gradient and distance from the coast. Distribution and use of habitat by recifas fish was associated with food availability. The predictor model identified depth, roughness and coverage for foliose algae, calcareous algae and soft corals as the most significant variables influencing in the biomass of reef fish. In short, the description and understanding of these patterns are important steps to elucidate the ecological processes. In this sense, our approach provides a new understanding of the structure of the reef fish community of Rio Grande do Norte, allowing understand a part of a whole and assist future monitoring actions, evaluation, management and conservation of these and other reefs of Brazil.

Ajustamento Mental ao Cancro do Pulmão: o papel da autocompaixão e do suporte social

A presente investigação pretendeu ver cumpridos três dos principais objetivos: 1) Estudar as variáveis sociodemográficas e clínicas que caracterizam os doentes com cancro do pulmão; 2) Explorar a relação entre o ajustamento mental ao cancro do pulmão, a autocompaixão, o suporte social e os estados emocionais negativos dos doentes; 3) Examinar o impacto da autocompaixão e do suporte social em relação ao ajustamento mental e aos estados emocionais negativos em doentes com cancro do pulmão. A amostra é constituída por 55 indivíduos (38 homens e 17 mulheres) diagnosticados com cancro do pulmão e com idades compreendidas entre os 44 e os 87 anos, acompanhados medicamente no Hospital de Dia de Oncologia do Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra. Como instrumentos de medida para avaliar o ajustamento mental ao cancro, a autocompaixão, o suporte social e os estados emocionais negativos dos participantes foram utilizadas a Escala de Ajustamento Mental ao Cancro (MiniMac), a Escala de Autocompaixão (Selfcs), a Escala de Satisfação com o Suporte Social (Esss) e a Escala de Sintomatologia Psicopatológica (Eads-21). Os resultados obtidos revelaram uma associação significativa entre algumas variáveis clínicas, nomeadamente ser fumador, perceção da gravidade da doença, existência de antecedentes familiares com doença oncológica, e as variáveis em estudo (ajustamento mental, autocompaixão, suporte social e psicopatologia). Foram ainda encontradas correlações significativas entre o ajustamento mental e as estratégias de regulação emocional (autocompaixão), suporte social e psicopatologia. Por último, as análises de regressão linear múltipla mostraram que o modelo preditor da sintomatologia depressiva e do ajustamento mental (avaliado pela dimensão de desânimo) inclui o mindfulness como um preditor significativo. Já em relação ao modelo preditor do stress, o grau de satisfação com o suporte dos amigos revelou ser um contributo importante. Estes resultados têm implicações práticas, sugerindo que estes doentes podem no seu programa terapêutico beneficiar do desenvolvimento deste tipo de estratégias (novas formas de se relacionarem com as suas experiências emocionais e qualidade das suas redes sociais) no sentido de promover um melhor ajustamento mental à sua condição. / The current investigation intended to study three main objetives: 1) to study the sociodemographical and clinical variables which characterize those who suffer from lung cancer; 2) to explore the relation between the mental adjustment to lung cancer, selfcompassion, social support and the negative mental conditions of the sick person; 3) to analyse the impact of self-compassion and the social support in relation to the mental adjustment and to the negative mental conditions of a sick person with lung cancer. The sample is made of 55 individuals (38 males and 17 females) diagnosed with lung cancer, aged between 44 and 87 years old, using medicines at the Hospital de Dia de Oncologia do Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra. The Mini Mental Adjustment to Cancer Scale (MiniMac), the Self-Compassion Scale (Selfcs), the Escala de Satisfação com o Suporte Social (Esss) and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (Eads-21) scales were used as measuring instruments of evaluation of the mental adjustment to lung cancer, selfcompassion, social support and the negative mental conditions of the sick person. The results revealed a significant association between some clinical variables (being a smoker, awareness of the gravity of sickness, precedent relatives who suffered from cancer) and the variables in study (mental adjustment, self-compassion, social support and psychopathology). There were also found significant correlations between mental adjustment and the strategies used for emotional adjustment (self-compassion), the social support and the psychopathology. At last the multiple linear regretting analysis has shown that the predictor model of depressive symptomatology and the mental adjustment (analysed by the discouragement dimension) includes mindfulness as a significant predictor. However in what concerns to the stress model predictor, the satisfaction level with friends support revealed itself has being of high importance. These results have practical consequences, suggesting that sick people can benefit in their therapeutic program of these kind of strategies (new ways of leading with their emotional experiences and the quality of their social relationships) so they can promote a better mental adjustment to their health condition.

Sonolência Diurna Excessiva e Otimismo em Estudantes do 1º Ano do Ensino Superior

Os principais objetivos do presente estudo são analisar a prevalência da sonolência diurna excessiva (SDE) em estudantes do Ensino Superior (ES), bem como os seus níveis de otimismo. Participaram no presente estudo 162 estudantes universitários de várias faculdades de ES privado, de ambos os sexos, com idades compreendidas entre os 17 e os 46 anos (M=20,49; DP=5,153) e que frequentavam diferentes cursos (Psicologia, Ciências da Comunicação, Análises Clínicas, Ciências Farmacêuticas e Fisioterapia). O protocolo de recolha de dados foi constituído por um questionário sociodemográfico, dois itens do Questionário do Estado de Saúde (SF-36), a Escala de Sonolência de Epworth (ESE) e a Escala de Orientação para a Vida (LOT-R). A ESE apresentou um valor de alfa de Cronbach de α=0,68 e o LOT-R um valor de alfa de Cronbach de α=0,84. Os principais resultados descritivos mostram uma pontuação média na ESE de 8,98 (DP=3,85), que corresponde a uma prevalência de 32,1% (n=52) de SDE. A pontuação média obtida com a LOT-R foi de 14,3 (DP=4,77), que corresponde a 65,4% (n=106) de estudantes otimistas. Foram encontradas correlações estatisticamente significativas entre a idade e a SDE, mas não entre a SDE e as variáveis de perceção de saúde. Os resultados diferenciais não apresentaram significância estatística na SDE, quando o sexo, o curso e a situação de residência foram tidos em consideração. A idade foi assumida, nas análises de regressão linear, como variável preditora explicativa de 3% da variância dos resultados da ESE. Relativamente ao otimismo, este mostrou-se correlacionado com a perceção do estado de saúde no momento, mas não com a SDE, idade e transição de saúde. Não foi encontrada significância estatística no otimismo quando o sexo, o curso e a situação de residência foram considerados. As análises de regressão linear identificaram como modelo preditor explicativo de cerca de 12% da variação total do LOT-R o modelo que integra a idade e a perceção do estado de saúde no momento. Estudos posteriores devem ser realizados para se aferir a prevalência de SDE e caraterizar o otimismo em estudantes universitários, bem como a relação entre ambos e com outras variáveis relevantes, de foma a apoiar, adequadamente a intervenção.

Interveniência dos afectos na relação entre o género e o neuroticismo em adultos idosos

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para obtenção de grau de Mestre na especialidade de Psicologia Clínica.

To what extent is the Mayer and Salovey (1997) model of emotional intelligence a useful predictor of leadership style and perceived leadership outcomes in Australian educational institutions?

Researchers have found that transformational leadership is related to positive outcomes in educational institutions. Hence, it is important to explore constructs that may predict leadership style in order to identify potential transformational leaders in assessment and selection procedures. Several studies in non-educational settings have found that emotional intelligence is a useful predictor of transformational leadership, but these studies have generally lacked methodological rigor and contextual relevance. This project, set in Australian educational institutions, employed a more rigorous methodology to answer the question: to what extent is the Mayer and Salovey (1997) model of emotional intelligence a useful predictor of leadership style and perceived leadership outcomes? The project was designed to move research in the field forward by using valid and reliable instruments, controlling for other predictors, obtaining an adequately sized sample of current leaders and collecting multiple ratings of their leadership behaviours. The study (N = 144 leaders and 432 raters) results indicated that emotional intelligence was not a useful predictor of leadership style and perceived leadership outcomes. In contrast, several of the other predictors in the study were found to predict leadership style.

Severity of mucosal inflammation as a predictor for alterations of visceral sensory function in a rat model

Transient inflammation is known to alter visceral sensory function and frequently precede the onset of symptoms in a subgroup of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Duration and severity of the initial inflammatory stimulus appear to be risk factors for the manifestation of symptoms. Therefore, we aimed to characterize dose-dependent effects of trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid (TNBS)/ethanol on: (1) colonic mucosa, (2) cytokine release and (3) visceral sensory function in a rat model. Acute inflammation was induced in male Lewis rats by single administration of various doses of TNBS/ethanol (total of 0.8, 0.4 or 0.2 ml) in test animals or saline in controls. Assessment of visceromotor response (VMR) to colorectal distensions, histological evaluation of severity of inflammation, and measurement of pro-inflammatory cytokine levels (IL-2, IL-6) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were performed 2h and 3, 14, 28, 31 and 42 days after induction. Increased serum IL-2 and IL-6 levels were evident prior to mucosal lesions 2h after induction of colitis and persist up to 14 days (p<0.05 vs. saline), although no histological signs of inflammation were detected at 14 days. In the acute phase, VMR was only significantly increased after 0.8 ml and 0.4 ml TNBS/ethanol (p<0.05 vs. saline). After 28 days, distension-evoked responses were persistently elevated (p<0.05 vs. saline) in 0.8 and 0.4 ml TNBS/ethanol-treated rats. In 0.2 ml TNBS/ethanol group, VMR was only enhanced after repeated visceral stimulation. Visceral hyperalgesia occurs after a transient colitis. However, even a mild acute but asymptomatic colitis can induce long-lasting visceral hyperalgesia in the presence of additional stimuli.