Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and of severe perioperative complications in myocardial revascularization surgery

OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.

Predictive factors of non-deterioration of glucose tolerance following a 2-year behavioral intervention

Aim: To identify predictive factors associated with non-deterioration of glucose metabolism following a 2-year behavioral intervention in Japanese-Brazilians. Methods: 295 adults (59.7% women) without diabetes completed 2-year intervention program. Characteristics of those who maintained/improved glucose tolerance status (non-progressors) were compared with those who worsened (progressors) after the intervention. In logistic regression analysis, the condition of non-progressor was used as dependent variable. Results: Baseline characteristics of non-progressors (71.7%) and progressors were similar, except for the former being younger and having higher frequency of disturbed glucose tolerance and lower C-reactive protein (CRP). In logistic regression, non-deterioration of glucose metabolism was associated with disturbed glucose tolerance impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance - (p < 0.001) and CRP levels <= 0.04 mg/dL (p = 0.01), adjusted for age and anthropometric variables. Changes in anthropometry and physical activity and achievement of weight and dietary goals after intervention were similar in subsets that worsened or not the glucose tolerance status. Conclusion: The whole sample presented a homogeneous behavior during the intervention. Lower CRP levels and diagnosis of glucose intolerance at baseline were predictors of non-deterioration of the glucose metabolism after a relatively simple intervention, independent of body adiposity.

PREDICTIVE FACTORS OF GAIT IN NEUROPATHIC AND NON-NEUROPHATIC DIABETIC PATIENTS

Objective: The purpose of this study was to analyze the range of movement of the ankle and the vertical ground reaction force involved in gait among diabetic patients with and without peripheral neuropathy. Sample and Method: 36 individuals were divided into three groups: Control group - CG: 10 individuals without diabetes, Diabetic group - DG: 10 individuals with diabetes without peripheral neuropathy and Neuropathy, and Diabetic neuropathic group - DNG: 16 individuals with diabetes and peripheral diabetic neuropathy. Gait - AMTI (R) OR6/6m and range of tibiotarsal joint movement - System Vicom 640 (R) was carried out in all the participants. Results: The first and second vertical ground reaction force peaks were statistically higher in the neuropathy group, and the range of ankle motion was lower in the Diabetes and Neuropathy groups. Conclusion: The range of movement of the tibiotarsal joint is lower in diabetics, regardless of the presence or absence of peripheral neuropathy, and diabetics with peripheral neuropathy show an increase in the first and second vertical ground reaction force peaks during walking.

Clinical Criteria as Predictive Factors of Response to Primary Hormone Therapy in Locally Advanced Breast Cancer

This study investigates the efficacy of clinical criteria in selecting patients for primary tamoxifen therapy. A total of 60 breast cancer patients with large primary tumors and unknown hormonal receptor status were subjected to primary hormone therapy. Inclusion criteria were age over 60 years old or menopausal status for at least 10 years and no clinical evidence of inflammatory disease and fast tumor growth. The objective response rate was 55%. There was a positive correlation between the lack of clinical response and axillary lymph node metastasis (p = 0.009). Patients with objective response had significantly improved disease-free (p = 0.045) and overall (p = 0.0002) survival over those who did not have response to hormonal therapy. In multivariate analysis, the clinical response to therapy was the most powerful prognostic factor. This analysis demonstrates that clinical criteria were very effective predictor of response to neo-adjuvant hormone therapy in large breast tumors for postmenopausal women. Response to therapy is the major prognostic factor in primary tamoxifen-treated breast cancer.

Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients

Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

Predictive factors of post-discharge surgical site infections among patients from a teaching hospital

Introduction Surgical site infections (SSIs) often manifest after patients are discharged and are missed by hospital-based surveillance. Methods We conducted a case-reference study nested in a prospective cohort of patients from six surgical specialties in a teaching hospital. The factors related to SSI were compared for cases identified during the hospital stay and after discharge. Results Among 3,427 patients, 222 (6.4%) acquired an SSI. In 138 of these patients, the onset of the SSI occurred after discharge. Neurological surgery and the use of steroids were independently associated with a greater likelihood of SSI diagnosis during the hospital stay. Conclusions Our results support the idea of a specialty-based strategy for post-discharge SSI surveillance.

Predictive factors of complications after coronary stent implantation

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the predictive factors of complications after implantation of coronary stents in a consecutive cohort study. METHODS: Clinical and angiographic characteristics related to the procedure were analyzed, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications (myocardial infarction, urgent surgery, new angioplasty, death) in the in-hospital phase were recorded. Data were stored in an Access database and analyzed by using the SPSS 6.0 statistical program and a stepwise backwards multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: One thousand eighteen (mean age of 61±11 years, 29% females) patients underwent 1,070 stent implantations. The rate of angiographic success was 96.8%, the rate of clinical success was 91%, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications was 7.9%. The variables independently associated with major cardiovascular complications, with their respective odds ratio (OR) were: rescue stent, OR = 5.1 (2.7-9.6); filamentary stent, OR = 4.5 (2.2-9.1); first-generation tubular stent, OR = 2.4 (1.2-4.6); multiple stents, OR = 3 (1.6-5.6); complexity of the lesion, OR = 2.4 (1.1-5.1); thrombus, OR = 2 (1.1-3.5). CONCLUSION: The results stress the importance of angiographic variables and techniques in the risk of complications and draw attention to the influence of the stent's design on the result of the procedure.

Survival and Predictive Factors of Lethality in Hemodyalisis: D/I Polymorphism of The Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme and of the Angiotensinogen M235T Genes

Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.

Predictive factors of adrenal insufficiency in patients admitted to acute medical wards: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: Adrenal insufficiency is a rare and potentially lethal disease if untreated. Several clinical signs and biological markers are associated with glucocorticoid failure but the importance of these factors for diagnosing adrenal insufficiency is not known. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of and the factors associated with adrenal insufficiency among patients admitted to an acute internal medicine ward. METHODS: Retrospective, case-control study including all patients with high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation tests for suspected adrenal insufficiency performed between 2008 and 2010 in an acute internal medicine ward (n = 281). Cortisol values <550 nmol/l upon ACTH-stimulation test were considered diagnostic for adrenal insufficiency. Area under the ROC curve (AROC), sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values for adrenal insufficiency were assessed for thirteen symptoms, signs and biological variables. RESULTS: 32 patients (11.4%) presented adrenal insufficiency; the others served as controls. Among all clinical and biological parameters studied, history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the only independent factor significantly associated with patients with adrenal insufficiency (Odds Ratio: 6.71, 95% CI: 3.08 -14.62). Using a logistic regression, a model with four significant and independent variable was obtained, regrouping history of glucocorticoid withdrawal (OR 7.38, 95% CI [3.18 ; 17.11], p-value <0.001), nausea (OR 3.37, 95% CI [1.03 ; 11.00], p-value 0.044), eosinophilia (OR 17.6, 95% CI [1.02; 302.3], p-value 0.048) and hyperkalemia (OR 2.41, 95% CI [0.87; 6.69], p-value 0.092). The AROC (95% CI) was 0.75 (0.70; 0.80) for this model, with 6.3 (0.8 - 20.8) for sensitivity and 99.2 (97.1 - 99.9) for specificity. CONCLUSIONS: 11.4% of patients with suspected adrenal insufficient admitted to acute medical ward actually do present with adrenal insufficiency, defined by an abnormal response to high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation test. A history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the strongest factor predicting the potential adrenal failure. The combination of a history of glucocorticoid withdrawal, nausea, eosinophilia and hyperkaliemia might be of interest to suspect adrenal insufficiency.

Predictive factors of outcome following staphylococcal peritonitis in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis

Background and aims: Staphylococcus epidermidis and other coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) are the most common agents of continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) peritonitis. Episodes caused by Staphylococcus aureus evolve with a high method failure rate while CoNS peritonitis is generally benign. The purpose of this study was to compare episodes of peritonitis caused by CoNS species and S. aureus to evaluate the microbiological and host factors that affect outcome. Material and methods: Microbiological and clinical data were retrospectively studied from 86 new episodes of peritonitis caused by staphylococci species between January 1996 and December 2000 in a university dialysis center. The influence of microbiological and host factors (age, sex, diabetes, use of vancomycin, exchange system and treatment time on CAPD) was analyzed by logistic regression model. The clinical outcome was classified into two results (resolution and non-resolution). Results: the odds of peritonitis resolution were not influenced by host factors. Oxacillin susceptibility was present in 30 of 35 S. aureus lineages and 22 of 51 CoNS (p = 0.001). There were 32 of 52 (61.5%) episodes caused by oxacillin-susceptible and 20 of 34 (58.8%) by oxacillin-resistant lineages resolved (p = 0.9713). of the 35 cases caused by S. aureus, 17 (48.6%) resolved and among 51 CoNS episodes 40 (78.4%) resolved. Resolution odds were 7.1 times higher for S. epidermidis than S. aureus (p = 0.0278), while other CoNS had 7.6 times higher odds resolution than S. epidermidis cases (p = 0.052). Episodes caused by S. haemolyticus had similar resolution odds to S. epidermidis (p = 0.859). Conclusions: S. aureus etiology is an independent factor associated with peritonitis non-resolution in CAPD, while S. epidermidis and S. haemolyticus have a lower resolution rate than other CoNS. Possibly the aggressive nature of these agents, particularly S. aureus, can be explained by their recognized pathogenic factors, more than antibiotic resistance.

Predictive factors of post-discharge surgical site infections among patients from a teaching hospital

Introduction Surgical site infections (SSIs) often manifest after patients are discharged and are missed by hospital-based surveillance. Methods We conducted a case-reference study nested in a prospective cohort of patients from six surgical specialties in a teaching hospital. The factors related to SSI were compared for cases identified during the hospital stay and after discharge. Results Among 3,427 patients, 222 (6.4%) acquired an SSI. In 138 of these patients, the onset of the SSI occurred after discharge. Neurological surgery and the use of steroids were independently associated with a greater likelihood of SSI diagnosis during the hospital stay. Conclusions Our results support the idea of a specialty-based strategy for post-discharge SSI surveillance.

HER-2, p53, p21 and hormonal receptors proteins expression as predictive factors of response and prognosis in locally advanced breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant docetaxel plus epirubicin combination

Abstract Background Neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been considered the standard care in locally advanced breast cancer. However, about 20% of the patients do not benefit from this clinical treatment and, predictive factors of response were not defined yet. This study was designed to evaluate the importance of biological markers to predict response and prognosis in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with taxane and anthracycline combination as neoadjuvant setting. Methods Sixty patients received preoperative docetaxel (75 mg/m2) in combination with epirubicin (50 mg/m2) in i.v. infusion in D1 every 3 weeks after incisional biopsy. They received adjuvant chemotherapy with CMF or FEC, attaining axillary status following definitive breast surgery. Clinical and pathologic response rates were measured after preoperative therapy. We evaluated the response rate to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and the prognostic significance of clinicopathological and immunohistochemical parameters (ER, PR, p51, p21 and HER-2 protein expression). The median patient age was 50.5 years with a median follow up time 48 months after the time of diagnosis. Results Preoperative treatment achieved clinical response in 76.6% of patients and complete pathologic response in 5%. The clinical, pathological and immunohistochemical parameters were not able to predict response to therapy and, only HER2 protein overexpression was associated with a decrease in disease free and overall survival (P = 0.0007 and P = 0.003) as shown by multivariate analysis. Conclusion Immunohistochemical phenotypes were not able to predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Clinical response is inversely correlated with a risk of death in patients submitted to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and HER2 overexpression is the major prognostic factor in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with a neoadjuvant docetaxel and epirubicin combination.