An annotated checklist of amphibian of India with some insights into the patterns of species discoveries, distribution and endemism

An annotated checklist of 284 species of amphibians of India accommodated under 50 genera and 14 families is provided. Synonyms, English names, type localities, deposition of type specimens, type specimen availability and distributional records in India and outside India are provided for all the species. Among the 284 species of amphibians from India, 132 are endemic to Western Ghats; 29 to Northeastern India; and 5 to Andaman Nicobar islands. Species discovery patterns from the various biogeographic zones in India are discussed in detail. Cumulative discovery pattern with special reference to the genera Fejervarya (17 species), Nyctibatrachus (16 species), Indirana (10 species), Micrixalus (11 species), Philautus (46 species) and Gegeneophis (10 species) are also discussed.

The prediction of intake potential and organic matter digestibility of grass silages by near infrared spectroscopy analysis of undried samples

A study was undertaken to examine a range of sample preparation and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIPS) methodologies, using undried samples, for predicting organic matter digestibility (OMD g kg(-1)) and ad libitum intake (g kg(-1) W-0.75) of grass silages. A total of eight sample preparation/NIRS scanning methods were examined involving three extents of silage comminution, two liquid extracts and scanning via either external probe (1100-2200 nm) or internal cell (1100-2500 nm). The spectral data (log 1/R) for each of the eight methods were examined by three regression techniques each with a range of data transformations. The 136 silages used in the study were obtained from farms across Northern Ireland, over a two year period, and had in vivo OMD (sheep) and ad libitum intake (cattle) determined under uniform conditions. In the comparisons of the eight sample preparation/scanning methods, and the differing mathematical treatments of the spectral data, the sample population was divided into calibration (n = 91) and validation (n = 45) sets. The standard error of performance (SEP) on the validation set was used in comparisons of prediction accuracy. Across all 8 sample preparation/scanning methods, the modified partial least squares (MPLS) technique, generally minimized SEP's for both OMD and intake. The accuracy of prediction also increased with degree of comminution of the forage and with scanning by internal cell rather than external probe. The system providing the lowest SEP used the MPLS regression technique on spectra from the finely milled material scanned through the internal cell. This resulted in SEP and R-2 (variance accounted for in validation set) values of 24 (g/kg OM) and 0.88 (OMD) and 5.37 (g/kg W-0.75) and 0.77 (intake) respectively. These data indicate that with appropriate techniques NIRS scanning of undried samples of grass silage can produce predictions of intake and digestibility with accuracies similar to those achieved previously using NIRS with dried samples. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Prediction of dopant atom distribution on nanocrystals using thermodynamic arguments

A theoretical approach aiming at the prediction of segregation of dopant atoms on nanocrystalline systems is discussed here. It considers the free energy minimization argument in order to provide the most likely dopant distribution as a function of the total doping level. For this, it requires as input (i) a fixed polyhedral geometry with defined facets, and (ii) a set of functions that describe the surface energy as a function of dopant content for different crystallographic planes. Two Sb-doped SnO2 nanocrystalline systems with different morphology and dopant content were selected as a case study, and the calculation of the dopant distributions expected for them is presented in detail. The obtained results were compared to previously reported characterization of this system by a combination of HRTEM and surface energy calculations, and both methods are shown to be equivalent. Considering its application pre-requisites, the present theoretical approach can provide a first estimation of doping atom distribution for a wide range of nanocrystalline systems. We expect that its use will support the reduction of experimental effort for the characterization of doped nanocrystals, and also provide a solution to the characterization of systems where even state-of-art analytical techniques are limited.

Prediction of the Temperature Distribution of Partially Submersed Umbilical Cables

The objective of this work is to predict the temperature distribution of partially submersed umbilical cables under different operating and environmental conditions. The commercial code Fluent (R) was used to simulate the heat transfer and the air fluid flow of part of a vertical umbilical cable near the air-water interface. A free-convective three-dimensional turbulent flow in open-ended vertical annuli was solved. The influence of parameters such as the heat dissipating rate, wind velocity, air temperature and solar radiation was analyzed. The influence of the presence of a radiation shield consisting of a partially submersed cylindrical steel tube was also considered. The air flow and the buoyancy-driven convective heat transfer in the annular region between the steel tube and the umbilical cable were calculated using the standard k-epsilon turbulence model. The radiative heat transfer between the umbilical external surface and the radiation shield was calculated using the Discrete Ordinates model. The results indicate that the influence of a hot environment and intense solar radiation may affect the umbilical cable performance in its dry portion.

Prediction of the temperature distribution of partially submersed umbilical cables

The objective of this work is to predict the temperature distribution of partially submersed umbilical cables under different operating and environmental conditions. The commercial code Fluent® was used to simulate the heat transfer and the air fluid flow of part of a vertical umbilical cable near the air-water interface. A free-convective three-dimensional turbulent flow in open-ended vertical annuli was solved. The influence of parameters such as the heat dissipating rate, wind velocity, air temperature and solar radiation was analyzed. The influence of the presence of a radiation shield consisting of a partially submersed cylindrical steel tube was also considered. The air flow and the buoyancydriven convective heat transfer in the annular region between the steel tube and the umbilical cable were calculated using the standard k-ε turbulence model. The radiative heat transfer between the umbilical external surface and the radiation shield was calculated using the Discrete Ordinates model. The results indicate that the influence of a hot environment and intense solar radiation may affect the umbilical cable performance in its dry portion.

Screening and prediction of erosive potential

The literature on the erosive potential of drinks and other products is summarised, and aspects of the conduct of screening tests as well as possible correlations of the erosive potential with various solution parameters are discussed. The solution parameters that have been suggested as important include pH, acid concentration (with respect to buffer capacity and concentration of undissociated acid), degree of saturation, calcium and phosphate concentrations, and inhibitors of erosion. Based on the available data, it is concluded that the dominant factor in erosion is pH. The effect of buffer capacity seems to be pH dependent. The degree of saturation probably has a non-linear relationship with erosion. While calcium at elevated concentrations is known to reduce erosion effectively, it is not known whether it is important at naturally occurring concentrations. Fluoride at naturally occurring concentrations is inversely correlated with erosive potential, but phosphate is probably not. Natural plant gums, notably pectin, do not inhibit erosion, so they are unlikely to interfere with the prediction of erosive potential. The non-linearity of some solution factors and interactions with pH need to be taken into account when developing multivariate models for predicting the erosive potential of different solutions. Finally, the erosive potential of solutions towards enamel and dentine might differ.

西北干旱区多种植物地理分布与气候的相关性及其可能潜在分布预测

　　作为西部大开发的关键地区，西北干旱区由于地理位置和环境条件的独特性、生态系统的脆弱性以及人类活动的长期干扰，对其周边乃至全国的生态环境有较大的影响，在这一地区研究植物种分布与气候的关系，并模拟预测其可能的潜在分布范围，具有理论上和实践上的重要意义。 　　通过广泛收集了西北干旱区优势种和常见种的地理分布资料，共选择128个植物种，利用Holdridge的生命地带分类系统，计算各植物种的生物温度(BT)、可能蒸散(PE)、降水量(P)及可能蒸散率(PER)，分析植物种与气候的相互关系，并将所有植物种进行经验归纳分类。随后，对这砦植物种及其气候信息进行TWINSPAN定量分类，并与经验分类结果相比较，得出西北干旱区128种植物的生态气候分类，分属于以下几大类型：高寒草甸、森林一草原过渡带、草原（典型草原、荒漠草原）、荒漠（草原化荒漠、荒漠、高寒荒漠）。具体来说，包括以下17个生态气候类型： 1)高寒草甸：异针茅。 2)森林一草原过渡带：牛尾蒿、鬼箭锦鸡儿、沙棘。 3)草原a：沙蒿。 4)草原b：长芒草、百里香（变种）、多叶隐子草、贝加尔针茅、大针茅。 5)草原c：羊茅、小叶锦鸡儿、荒漠锦鸡儿、线叶菊、华北岩黄芪、廿青针茅、碱蒿、内蒙古沙蒿、裂叶蒿、狭叶锦鸡儿、山竹岩黄芪、女蒿、小蓬、两伯利亚杏、沙地柏、角果碱篷、霸王、糙隐子草。 6)草原d：紫狐茅、紫花针茅。 7)草原一荒漠草原a：包括沙竹、琵琶柴、吉尔吉斯针茅。 8)草原一荒漠草原b：华北米蒿、差巴嘎蒿、星星草、长芒针茅、铁竿蒿、柠条锦鸡儿。 9)荒漠草原：沙生冰草、蒙古冰草、羊草、冷蒿、中亚紫菀木、刺旋花、老瓜头、木贼麻黄、西伯利亚白刺、唐古特白刺、戈壁针茅、石生针茅、盐地碱蓬、冰草、蓍状亚菊、油蒿、木蓼、刺针枝蓼、长枝木蓼、中间锦鸡儿、尖叶盐爪爪、黄花琵琶柴、松叶猪毛菜、珍珠猪毛菜、东方针茅、囊果碱蓬、四合木、白滨藜、短脚锦鸡儿。 10)草原化荒漠，荒漠a：川青锦鸡儿、优若藜、苦艾蒿、无芒隐子草、沙冬青、籽蒿、地白蒿、菭草、齿叶白刺、绵刺、盐角草、多枝柽柳、盐生假木贼。 11)草原化荒漠．荒漠b：蒿叶猪毛菜、短花针茅、芨芨草、灌木亚菊、博乐蒿、小蒿、喀什蒿、南山短花菊、盐爪爪、木本猪毛菜、针茅、细枝盐爪爪。 12)草原化荒漠．荒漠c：白梭梭、白羊草、无叶假木贼。 13）干旱荒漠a：戈壁短花菊、荒漠细柄茅、刺蓬、沙生针茅、多花柽柳、细枝柽柳。 14)干旱荒漠b：梭梭柴、铃铛刺、天山猪毛菜、帕米尔麻黄、座花针茅、旱蒿、克氏狐茅、短叶假木贼、准格尔沙蒿、长穗柽柳、刚毛柽柳。 15)高寒荒漠植被：匍生优若藜。 16)干旱荒漠c：粉花蒿、白杆沙拐枣、膜果麻黄、花花柴、灌木紫菀木、裸果木、合头草、塔里木沙拐枣。 17)超干旱荒漠植被：沙拐枣、胡杨、盐穗木、灰杨、盐节木、圆叶盐爪爪。 　　综合分类结果表明：多数植物种的生态气候类型与实际生境相符，但也有少数植物种有明显偏差，主要原因有三点：首先，某些种的分布范围超出了西北干旱区，在东北、华北、甚至全国范围内分布，所计算的植物种的气候范围本身存在局限性;其次，西北干旱区的研究资料如植物种的分布范围、分布点的气象资料等有许多缺失：最后，由于文献中对某些植物种分布范围的描述比较笼统，无法确定其精确的地理分布界限，使得植物种所对应的分类结果与其真正所属的植 被类型有一些偏差。 　　本文还进一步在这128种植物中选取了10种分布明确、资料齐备的代表性植被类型的优势种，根据它们的降水和生物温度指标，模拟预测了它们的可能潜在分布区，包括其主要中心分布区和最大可能分布区，并与实际分布范围进行比较。结果表明．其潜在分布区的分布范围与实际调查所得资料所处范围基本一致，特别是中心分布区的预测图，而最大可能分布区与实际有一定误差。

应用SVM预测杜鹃属（Rhododendron L.）在中国的潜在分布中心

杜鹃属(Rhododendron L.)是中国种子植物中最大的属，其现代分布和分化中心是我国西南部的横断山区和东喜马拉雅地区。我国西部、西南部的云南、四川、西藏等地共有杜鹃达450种，仅特有种就有约300种。对杜鹃属分布的深入研究是横断山区生物多样性保护不可缺少的重要部分。 由于物种分布与环境因子之间存在着紧密的联系，利用环境因子作为预测物种分布模型的变量是当前最普遍的建模思路。但是绝大多数物种分布预测模型都遇到了难以解决的“高维小样本”问题――模型在标本数据不足时无法给出合理的预测，或者模型无法处理大量的环境变量。机器学习领域的理论和实践已经证明，基于结构风险最小化原理的支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)算法非常适合“高维小样本”的分类问题。为了探索其应用在物种分布预测问题上的可能性，本文创新性的实现了基于SVM算法的物种分布预测系统。然后，本文以30个杜鹃属(Rhododendron L.)物种为检验对象，利用其标本数据和11个1km的栅格环境变量图层作为模型变量，预测其在中国的潜在分布区。本文通过全面的模型评估——专家评估，ROC (Receiver Operator Characteristic)曲线和曲线下方面积AUC (Area Under the Curve)——来比较模型的性能。试验结果表明，我们所实现的以SVM为核心的物种分布预测系统无论在计算速度还是预测效果上都远远优于当前广泛使用的GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction)预测系统。 之后，本文进一步探讨了SVM预测系统预测效果与环境变量维数和标本点个数的关系。试验结果表明，对于只有少量标本点的物种SVM的预测结果仍然具有相当的合理性。由此可见， SVM预测系统很好的解决了以前众多模型无法克服的稀有种和标本点稀少的物种的潜在分布区模拟问题。同时本文发现大的环境维数（高维）对于物种潜在分布区的预测有着决定性的作用，因此模型处理高维问题的能力显得至关重要。 最后，我们使用中国所有可获取的杜鹃属标本数据，以及83个1km的栅格环境变量图层，对400种杜鹃属物种的潜在分布区进行预测。根据预测出来的物种潜在分布区，我们得到了中国杜鹃属物种潜在多样性分布格局，特有物种潜在多样性分布格局，濒危杜物种潜在的分布格局，各亚属物种潜在分布格局，以及不同生活型物种潜在多样性分布格局。这些分布区图不仅可以对杜鹃属起源研究提供分析验证的条件，还能为其引种、保护和新种的搜寻提供有利的空间依据。

Comparing machine learning classifiers in potential distribution modelling

Species` potential distribution modelling consists of building a representation of the fundamental ecological requirements of a species from biotic and abiotic conditions where the species is known to occur. Such models can be valuable tools to understand the biogeography of species and to support the prediction of its presence/absence considering a particular environment scenario. This paper investigates the use of different supervised machine learning techniques to model the potential distribution of 35 plant species from Latin America. Each technique was able to extract a different representation of the relations between the environmental conditions and the distribution profile of the species. The experimental results highlight the good performance of random trees classifiers, indicating this particular technique as a promising candidate for modelling species` potential distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species

Our study intended to explore the potential distributionshif of Phlebotomusariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. We used climate envelope modeling (CEM) method to determine the ecological requirements of the species and to model the potential distribution for three periods (1961-1990, 2011-2040, and 2041- 2070). We found that by the end of the 2060’s the Southern UK, Germany, entire France and also the western part of Poland can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasishowe the greatest potential northward expansion, from 49°N to 59°N. For all of the studied sand fly species the entire Mediterranean Basin, the Balkan Peninsula, the Carpathian Basin, and northern coastline of the Black Sea are potentially suitable. The length of the predicted active period of the vectors will increase with one or two months.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species and the parasite Leishmania infantum in 2011-2070. A climate envelope modeling approach

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) in Brazil

The non-native invasive anuran Lithobates catesbeianus is presently distributed in Brazil, especially in the Atlantic Rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Here, we use a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (i) to model the North American native geographic distribution of this species and (ii) to project that model onto the whole of Brazil. After applying a threshold value that balances commission and omission errors, the projection results suggested high probabilities of occurrence mostly in southern and southeastern Brazil. We also present the first report on the species known distribution in Brazil, showing good agreement with model predictions. If the predictive map is interpreted as depicting invasiveness potential of L. catesbeianus, strategies to prevent further invasion in Brazil should be focused especially in the Atlantic Rainforest biodiversity hotspot.

Morphological prediction of worker size discrimination and relative abundance of sympartic species of Pseudacteon (Dipt., Phoridae) parasitoids of the fire ant, Solenopsis saevissima (Hym., Formicidae) in Brazil

Patterns of attack for collected species of phorids are predicted using multivariate morphometrics of female Pseudacteon species and worker size distributions of parasitized fire ants, Solenopsis saevissima. The model assumes that there is a direct correlation between phorid size and the size range of the worker ant attacked, and presumes that worker sizes are a resource that is divided by sympatric phorid species to minimize joint parasitism. These results suggest that the community of sympatric Pseudacteon species on only one host species coexists by restricting the size of workers attacked, and secondarily by differing diel patterns of ovipositional activity. When we compared relative abundance of species of Pseudacteon with the size distribution of foragers of S. saevissima, our observed distribution did not differ significantly from our predicted relative abundance of females of Pseudacteon. The activity of Pseudacteon may be a factor determining forager size distributions.